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Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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A research team housed out of the newly launched Rice Biotech Launch Pad received funding to scale tech that could slash cancer deaths in half. Photo via Rice University

A research funding agency has deployed capital into a team at Rice University that's working to develop a technology that could cut cancer-related deaths in half.

Rice researchers received $45 million from the National Institutes of Health's Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health, or ARPA-H, to scale up development of a sense-and-respond implant technology. Rice bioengineer Omid Veiseh leads the team developing the technology as principal investigator.

“Instead of tethering patients to hospital beds, IV bags and external monitors, we’ll use a minimally invasive procedure to implant a small device that continuously monitors their cancer and adjusts their immunotherapy dose in real time,” he says in a news release. “This kind of ‘closed-loop therapy’ has been used for managing diabetes, where you have a glucose monitor that continuously talks to an insulin pump. But for cancer immunotherapy, it’s revolutionary.”

Joining Veiseh on the 19-person research project named THOR, which stands for “targeted hybrid oncotherapeutic regulation,” is Amir Jazaeri, co-PI and professor of gynecologic oncology at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. The device they are developing is called HAMMR, or hybrid advanced molecular manufacturing regulator.

“Cancer cells are continually evolving and adapting to therapy. However, currently available diagnostic tools, including radiologic tests, blood assays and biopsies, provide very infrequent and limited snapshots of this dynamic process," Jazaeri adds. "As a result, today’s therapies treat cancer as if it were a static disease. We believe THOR could transform the status quo by providing real-time data from the tumor environment that can in turn guide more effective and tumor-informed novel therapies.”

With a national team of engineers, physicians, and experts across synthetic biology, materials science, immunology, oncology, and more, the team will receive its funding through the Rice Biotech Launch Pad, a newly launched initiative led by Veiseh that exists to help life-saving medical innovation scale quickly.

"Rice is proud to be the recipient of the second major funding award from the ARPA-H, a new funding agency established last year to support research that catalyzes health breakthroughs," Rice President Reginald DesRoches says. "The research Rice bioengineer Omid Veiseh is doing in leading this team is truly groundbreaking and could potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives each year. This is the type of research that makes a significant impact on the world.”

The initial focus of the technology will be on ovarian cancer, and this funding agreement includes a first-phase clinical trial of HAMMR for the treatment of recurrent ovarian cancer that's expected to take place in the fourth year of THOR’s multi-year project.

“The technology is broadly applicable for peritoneal cancers that affect the pancreas, liver, lungs and other organs,” Veiseh says. “The first clinical trial will focus on refractory recurrent ovarian cancer, and the benefit of that is that we have an ongoing trial for ovarian cancer with our encapsulated cytokine ‘drug factory’ technology. We'll be able to build on that experience. We have already demonstrated a unique model to go from concept to clinical trial within five years, and HAMMR is the next iteration of that approach.”

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