Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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NASA awards Texas Space Commission role in $10M aerospace workforce initiative

space hub

The Texas Space Commission is one of seven organizations tapped by NASA to lead the space agency's new state and regional Skilled Technical Workforce Hubs.

The $10.5 million initiative aims to help foster the next generation of skilled workers in the aerospace industry.

Through the new program, the hubs will work together over the next three years to meet growing industry needs by aligning “industry employers, community colleges, high school career and technical education programs, and workforce systems,” according to a news release from NASA.

It aims to create clear pathways for workers in technical jobs, like welding, electrical work and machining, plus other jobs that require advanced STEM knowledge but do not require a bachelor’s degree.

“The need for technical talent is already urgent and will only continue to grow as we return humanity to the Moon and set our sights on Mars and beyond,” Elaine Ho, associate administrator for the Office of STEM Engagement at NASA, said in the release. “NASA is uniquely positioned to be the catalyst and convener that accelerates America’s aerospace workforce development and fosters the next generation of technicians.”

As part of the initiative, the TSC plans to launch the statewide network known as the Texas Space STEM Alliance (TSSA). According to a TSC release, the TSSA will link up schools, colleges, workforce groups and aerospace companies to build a pipeline for space-industry workers.

Additionally, the TSC is developing the Texas Aerospace Pathways Plus (TAP+) portal to consolidate information on training programs, internships, apprenticeships, employment opportunities and scholarships, while also identifying regional gaps in workforce opportunities.

Other state and regional organizations to receive the award include:

  • Antelope Valley Community College District in Lancaster, California
  • Georgia Tech Research Corporation
  • Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
  • Southern Utah University
  • Space Florida
  • State Board for Community Colleges and Occupation Education, Arapahoe Community College in Littleton, Colorado

The Houston area is home to more than 43,000 aerospace and aviation professionals, according to the Greater Houston Partnership. The Texas Space Commission has been awarded $150 million for 24 projects since being established to increase the state’s space economy in 2023.

The funding for the NASA state hubs comes from NASA’s Office of STEM Engagement through its Next Gen STEM Project.

Amazon's robotaxi service Zoox rolls out in 'sprawling' Houston market

On the Road

Amazon-owned robotaxi ride-hailing service Zoox is zooming into Houston in September, becoming the latest robotaxi operator jockeying for local riders.

Initially, self-driving retrofitted SUVs with safety drivers on board will serve downtown Houston, centrally located tourist hotspots, and certain residential neighborhoods. The SUVs will test Houston roads before Zoox rolls out autonomous robotaxis here, the company says.

Zoox takes Houston for a test drive

At the outset, Zoox says, a limited number of vehicles will be driven by people to gather data about Houston roads.

Zoox test drive Photo courtesy of Zoox

“This helps create a detailed picture of each street, from road geometry to traffic lights,” the company says. “Once we have mapped out an area, we will test autonomous driving capabilities. Safety and operational readiness govern the pace of our rollout.”

Zoox says its robotaxi differs from vehicles operated by other ride-hailing services.

The all-electric robotaxi “is purpose-built for autonomous ride-hailing and designed for riders from day one,” the company says. “It has no traditional driving controls and instead has carriage-style seating, sliding glass doors, and features that let the rider personalize their journey.”

To help manage the fleet, Zoox plans to open a depot in Houston for vehicle charging and maintenance, a representative says via email.

Along with Houston, Zoox is launching this month in San Diego. The ride-hailing service already operates in Austin, Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.

Zoox breaks into “sprawling” Houston market

Zoox describes Houston as its “most sprawling market to date.”

“Driving here means navigating complex service-road networks, unique merging scenarios, and challenging environmental conditions, including severe heat, heavy rain, and urban flooding,” the company says. “It’s a rigorous test of our technology across geography and terrain.”

Zoox will join two other autonomous ride-hailing services in Houston:

  • Waymo began rolling in Houston in February. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, owns Waymo.
  • Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla began offering robotaxi services earlier this year.

A third Zoox competitor is arriving within the next year. A partnership comprising rideshare provider Uber, EV manufacturer Lucid, and autonomous technology company Nuro plans to launch a robotaxi service in Houston by mid-2027.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston energy giant Shell lists local headquarters for sale for $325M

On the Market

Energy giant Shell has put its U.S. headquarters in Houston’s Energy Corridor on the market and is exploring the sale of its U.S. chemical business.

Green Street News reported Shell just listed its longtime Energy Corridor campus at 150 N. Dairy Ashford Road. The asking price is $325 million, The Real Deal reported. Shell plans to lease back half of the nearly 1.5 million-square-foot Woodcreek campus for 15 years.

A sale-leaseback deal could transform the 43.6-acre campus into a multitenant hub, CoStar News reported.

“Houston is a critical hub for Shell globally and the headquarters of our U.S. businesses,” a Shell spokesperson told the Houston Business Journal. “We remain committed to Houston and are evaluating opportunities to optimize our Woodcreek campus as part of our ongoing review of workplace needs while maintaining a strong presence in the city.”

Shell occupied its first building at the West Houston campus in 1980. The company employs more than 6,000 people in Texas.

Shell is one of the highest-profile businesses occupying space in the Energy Corridor. It’s home to 67,000 workers, more than 27 million square feet of office and mixed-use space, and 3.8 million square feet of retail and restaurant space.

Shell considers $8B sale of chemical business
As the company seeks to unload its Woodcreek campus, The Financial Times reported Shell is looking into selling its U.S. chemical business. The price tag: $8 billion.

Potential buyers include Spring-based ExxonMobil and Houston-based LyondellBasell.

Shell operates four chemical plants in Texas, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, producing an array of chemicals for use in plastics, detergents and pharmaceuticals.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan said last year that the company had spent $45 billion in capital “that is underperforming for us,” split between its chemical business and renewable energy arm.

Shell also agreed to sell its solar and wind power business in India this summer. Read more here.

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This article originally appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

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