Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

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Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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$5B Austin medical center, anchored by MD Anderson, to break ground this fall

moving forward

Construction on the $1 billion first phase of the AI-native University of Texas Dell Medical Center in Austin—which will feature a hospital operated by Houston’s UT MD Anderson Cancer Center—is set to start this fall.

The UT System Board of Regents approved funding for first-phase construction on Aug. 12.

The medical center—now expected to cost $5 billion, up from the initial $2.9 billion estimate—will span about 2.5 million square feet. It will include 300 to 500 patient beds, outpatient facilities, an emergency department and specialized care for cancer patients.

MD Anderson will bring its world-renowned oncology programs to the center’s integrated health care model, Dr. Claudia Lucchinetti, senior vice president of medical affairs at UT Austin and dean of the university’s Dell Medical School, tells Health Leaders.

Earlier this year, Austin tech billionaire Michael Dell and his wife, Susan, pledged $750 million for development of the medical center. The medical center, scheduled for completion in December 2030, will be a cornerstone of the new 300-acre UT Dell Campus for Advanced Research, a medical education and research hub.

“Through this new campus and medical center, Texas will lead America in health care innovation,” Gov. Greg Abbott said when the research campus was announced in April. “The next generation of medical breakthroughs will take place in Central Texas.”

The medical center will fold AI tools and other technology into the infrastructure, rather than having them added after it’s built. Among other capabilities, the technology will monitor real-time medical data, automate data entry, and help health care professionals quickly predict and identify risks to patients, according to Health Leaders.

“We are not just building a new medical center,” Lucchinetti says. “We are building a fundamentally new model of health. It’s not just a new facility. It’s not just a new collaboration. It is a convergence of capabilities that rarely come together at the same time.”

Houston hospital ranks among 20 best in U.S. & more top innovation news

Trending News

Editor's note: August is off to a strong start with these five big innovation headlines to know. From the annual U.S. News ranking of best hospitals to a big Series A raise, here are the most-read Houston innovation stories published July 31-August 14, 2026:

1. U.S. News declares Houston hospital No. 1 in Texas for the 15th year

Houston Methodist Hospital and over a dozen more Houston-area hospitals have earned bragging rights in U.S. Houston Methodist was also the only Texas institution named on U.S. News' Best Hospitals Honor Roll, a prestigious list of the 20 best medical centers in the country. Houston Methodist also reigns as Texas' best hospital for the 15th consecutive year. Continue reading.

2. Houston startup lands $10M to power up electrician staffing platform

Houston-based Buildforce, which provides a tech-enabled staff platform geared toward electricians and electrical contractors, has raised a $10 million Series A round led by Houston’s Saepio Capital. Other investors in the round include Blue Heron Capital, Revolution’s Rise of the Rest Seed Fund, S3 Ventures and Chicago Ventures. Buildforce says the funding will help fuel its national expansion and further development of its technology. Continue reading.

3. UTHealth Houston joins NASA initiative to protect border drinking water

Climate change means far more to public health than living with hotter days. Transformations in our weather are contributing to challenges in accessing safe drinking water in some communities. One of the most dire situations is along the US–Mexico border. NASA is seeking to address that issue with its Water Quality Applications program. An 11-researcher project led by a UTHealth Houston School of Public Health faculty member has been selected to participate. Continue reading.

4. KBR unveils name, branding for new government services spinoff

Houston-based KBR Inc.'s new Mission Technology Solutions unit officially has a name. The previously announced government services spinoff, which until now has been nicknamed SpinCo, will now be known as Trinzic. The company said in a news release that the name was inspired by the word intrinsic, "reflecting essential, built-in capabilities and deep expertise operating in some of the world’s most complex and mission-critical environments." Continue reading.

5. Who are Houston's top innovators? Nominate now for 2026 Houston Innovation Awards

Calling all Houston innovators: The 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, presented by InnovationMap, return this fall to celebrate the best and brightest in the Houston innovation ecosystem right now. We're asking you to nominate Houston's top innovators and startups for this year's awards. Nominations are open through August 27 and can be made on behalf of yourself, your organization, and other influential leaders in the local innovation scene. Continue reading.

Rice lands $15M U.S. Army award to launch next-gen wireless research center

defense funding

The U.S. Army Research Office has awarded Rice University $15 million to establish a new center for next-generation sensing and communications.

The five-year research center—dubbed the Center for Large Aperture Secure Sensing, Imaging and Communications (CLASSIC)—will unite researchers from universities and national laboratories to develop advanced antenna technologies for future wireless systems. Edward Knightly, the Sheafor-Lindsay Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Rice, will lead the center that “combines expertise in wireless networking, antennas, radar, artificial intelligence, circuits and physics to address growing demands on wireless systems,” according to Rice.

“The challenges we’re tackling require advances that span physics, hardware, communications and computing," Knightly said in a news release. “By combining those strengths in a single center, we can accelerate the development and demonstration of technologies that would not be possible through individual efforts alone.”

Joining Knightly will be Ashutosh Sabharwal of Rice, Sensen Li of the University of Texas at Austin, Hou-Tong Chen of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Danijela Cabric of UCLA, Josep M. Jornet and Tommaso Melodia of Northeastern University, Daniel M. Mittleman of Brown University, and Willie Padilla of Duke University.

Industry partners include Booz Allen Hamilton, Intel, Keysight, Lockheed Martin, MITRE, Northrop Grumman, Qualcomm and Raytheon.

CLASSIC researchers will investigate how large-scale antenna arrays (ELSAAs) can expand the capabilities of wireless systems where technology is limited.

ELSAAs use thousands of coordinated antenna elements to direct radio waves. Researchers aim to develop ways to use the technology to help maintain steady communication when signals are blocked or disrupted and to detect and generate detailed images of concealed objects.

Along with ELSAAs, the center will work to develop sensing techniques for threat detection, study wireless jamming and build resilient high-speed wireless networks. Researchers will ultimately validate the technology in labs and via drone-based field trials.

CLASSIC will also work on developing an AI-driven modeling framework that will simulate complex electromagnetic environments in real time.

“This award demonstrates Rice’s leadership in tackling complex national research challenges through collaboration across disciplines and institutions,” David Sholl, executive vice president for research at Rice, added in the release.

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