Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Rice Alliance names Houston healthtech exec as first head of platform

new hire

The Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship has named its first head of platform.

Houston entrepreneur Laura Neder stepped into the newly created role last month, according to an email from Rice Alliance. Neder will focus on building and growing Houston’s Venture Advantage Platform.

The emerging platform, which is being promoted by Rice Alliance and the Ion, aims to connect founders with the "people, capital and expertise they need to scale."

"I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what it takes to make an innovation ecosystem more navigable, more connected, and more useful for founders," Neder said in a LinkedIn post. "I’m grateful for the opportunity to do that work at Rice Alliance, alongside a team with a long history of supporting entrepreneurship and innovation."

"Houston has the talent, institutions, and industry base to create real advantage for founders," she added. "I’m looking forward to listening, learning, and building stronger pathways across the ecosystem."

Neder most recently served as CEO of Houston-based Careset, where she helped bring the Medicare data startup to commercialization. Prior to that, Neder served as COO of Houston-based telemedicine startup 2nd.MD, which was acquired for $460 million by Accolade in 2021.

"Laura brings a rare combination of founder empathy, operational experience and ecosystem leadership," Rice Alliance shared.

Neder and Rice Alliance also shared that the organization is hiring developers to design the new Venture Advantage Platform. Learn more here.

Elon Musk's SpaceX files initial paperwork to sell shares to the public

Incoming IPO

Elon Musk's space exploration company has filed preliminary paperwork to sell shares to the public, according to two sources familiar with the filing, a blockbuster offering that would likely rank as the biggest ever and could make its founder the world's first trillionaire.

A SpaceX IPO promises to be one of the biggest Wall Street events of the year, with several investment banks lining up to help raise tens of billions to fund Musk's ambitions to set up a base on the moon, put datacenters the size of several football fields in orbit and possibly one day send a man to Mars.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk publicly about the confidential registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SpaceX did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Exactly how much SpaceX plans to raise has not been disclosed but the figure is reportedly as much as $75 billion. At that level, the offering would easily eclipse the $29 billion that Saudi Aramco raised in its IPO in 2019.

The offering, coming possibly in June, could value all the shares of SpaceX at $1.5 trillion, nearly double what the company was valued in December when some minority owners sold their stakes, according to research firm Pitchbook, before an acquisition that increased its size.

Musk owns 42% of the SpaceX now, according to Pitchbook, though that figure will change with the IPO when new owners are issued shares. In any case, he is likely to pierce the trillion dollar mark because he is already close. Forbes magazine estimates Musk's net worth at roughly $823 billion.

In addition to making reusable rockets to hurl astronauts and hardware into orbit, SpaceX owns Starlink, the world’s largest satellite communications company. The company also recently brought under its roof two other Musk businesses, social media platform X, formerly Twitter, and artificial intelligence business, xAI, in a controversial transaction because both the seller and the buyer were controlled by him.

SpaceX has become the biggest commercial launch company in its industry, responsible for sending payloads into orbit for customers across the globe, but has also benefited from big taxpayer spending. That has raised conflicts of interest issues given that Musk was the biggest donor to President Donald Trump's campaign and is still a big backer.

In the past five years, SpaceX won $6 billion in contracts from NASA, the Defense Department and other U.S. government agencies, according to USAspending.gov.

Among current SpaceX owners is Donald Trump Jr, the president's oldest son. He owns a shares through 1789 Capital. That venture capital firm made him a partner shortly after his father won the presidency for a second time and has been buying up federal contractors seeking to win taxpayer money ever since.

The White House and Trump himself have repeatedly denied there are any conflicts of interest between his role as president and his family's businesses.

8+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events in April

where to be

Editor’s note: Houston's weeklong innovation festival kicks off April, followed by Rice University's globally recognized pitch competition returning for its 26th year. Plus, find coworking pop-ups, industry meetups, pitch battles and even a crawfish boil on the calendar. Here’s what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article might be updated to add more events.

March 30-April 4 — H-Town Roundup

Celebrate innovation, entrepreneurship and collaboration at Houston Exponential's sixth-annual H-Town Roundup. During the free event series, previously known as Houston Tech Rodeo, attendees can expect insightful talks, workshops and networking events at venues across the city.

This event began March 30. Register here.

April 2 — Industrious Coworking Day

Enjoy a complimentary day of cowering at Industrious and network with professionals at the Ion. Breakfast, snacks, wifi and workspace tours are included. Following the cowering day, Industrious will host happy hour at Second Draught from 4-6 p.m.

This event is Thursday, April 2, from 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

April 2 — Technology Summit for Women

The fourth annual Women in Tech Cummil will feature speakers across three core tracks: Transformation + Digital strategy, Cyber + Risk + Resilience, and AI in Practice. Pearl Chu, director of technical domains and university relations at SLB, will give the opening remarks. Other panelists come from CenterPoint Energy, BP, Technip Energies and other leading companies.

This event is Thursday, April 2, from 2-5 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

April 8 — Veterans Business Battle

Hear pitches from veterans and entrepreneurs as they compete for more than $10 million in investments at Rice Businesses' 12th annual Veterans Business Battle. This year, the two-day event will also feature a Small Business Expo, which invites Houston-based, veteran-owned businesses to participate in education, networking and the opportunity to showcase their business. Moonshots Capital and Mercury Fund will also host a fireside chat.

This event begins Wednesday, April 8, at 11 a.m. at the Ion. Click here to register.

April 9-11 — Rice Business Plan Competition

The Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship will host the 26th annual Rice Business Plan Competition this month. Forty-two student-led teams from around the world, including one team from Rice, will present their plans before more than 300 angel, venture capital, and corporate investors to compete for more than $1 million in prizes.

This event begins Thursday, April 9. Find more information here.

April 10 — BioHouston Chili Cookoff

Connect with Houston's life sciences community at BioHouston's 21st annual chili cookout. This event is geared toward startup founders, researchers and industry veterans alike.

This event is Friday, April 10, from noon-4 p.m. at Bayou City Event Center. Register here.

April 14 — Mercury Fund Day at the Ion: Agentic Commerce

Don’t miss the latest installment of Mercury Fund Day at the Ion, previously known as Software Day. The recurring monthly event features office hours (by application), a keynote and networking opportunities. This month's topic focuses on agentic commerce.

This event is Tuesday, April 14, from 3:30-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

April 19 – UH Energy Industry Crawfish Boil

Head to the UH Cullen College of Engineering Green Space for the 35th annual UH Energy Industry Crawfish Boil. The event will include a student showcase, STEM activities, a kids zone, live music, networking and, of course, crawfish. Proceeds from the event will support the multidisciplinary capstone fund that aims to increase professional readiness for Cullen College engineering and technology students.

This event is Sunday, April 19, from 1-5 p.m. at the Cullen College of Engineering Green Space. Find more information here.

April 24 — Rice Business Healthcare Conference

Leading experts, innovators and the next generation of healthcare leaders will converge at the Rice Business Healthcare Conference. Hosted by the Rice Business Healthcare Association, the conference will explore AI's potential impact on the sector.

This event is Friday, April 24, from 8 a.m.-2 p.m. at McNair Hall on Rice University's campus. Find more information here.

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