Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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2026 Houston Innovation Awards finalists revealed and more top stories

Trending News

Editor's note: The top Houston innovation news for the first half of October celebrates the finalists for our sixth annual awards program. Plus, Rice launches a new venture fund and an energy AI company picks Houston for its first U.S. office. Here are the five most-read stories published October 1-15, 2026:

Announcing the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards finalists

InnovationMap is proud to reveal the finalists for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards. The sixth annual Houston Innovation Awards program returns in an all-digital format this fall to honor the best of Houston's innovation ecosystem, including startups, entrepreneurs, mentors, and more. Get to know our finalists in more detail through editorial spotlights on InnovationMap.com leading up to the winner announcement in mid-November. Continue reading.

Meet the esteemed judges for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards

Our 2026 Houston Innovation Awards judging panel comprises past award winners who represent a variety of industries and areas of expertise. They are joined by InnovationMap's interim editor. All are deeply engaged in the Houston innovation ecosystem. Continue reading.

Energy AI company opens first U.S. office at Houston's the Ion

Building on its partnership with Houston-based oilfield services provider Halliburton, energy-sector AI company Shape Digital recently opened an office at The Ion. It’s the company’s first U.S. location. Shape Digital’s workforce in Houston includes employees specializing in tech support, business development and client services. The company’s local hiring projections and headcount weren’t available. The new office will be located within Industrious at the Ion, according to Rice Alliance. Continue reading.

Rice University launches new venture fund for university-affiliated startups

Rice University has launched its new One Giant Leap Ventures Fund I, which will invest in the university’s spinouts and alumni-founded startups. The early-stage institutional venture fund will function with a hybrid structure that allows for participation from traditional equity investors and philanthropic investors. According to the university, the fund will invest up to $500,000 per Rice-affiliated company. To be considered eligible for funds, companies must use intellectual property licensed by the university or be led or founded by alumni. Continue reading.

Here’s where wages grew the most in Houston since 2021, according to new report

Bolstered by a thriving manufacturing sector, Waller County—the country’s second-fastest-growing county—leads all Houston-area counties for the growth of pay from 2021 to 2026, according to a new study. The study, conducted by personal finance website SmartAsset, found average pay in Waller County rose 48 percent from 2021 to 2026. The county’s average weekly pay climbed from $891 to $1,323 during that period. Continue reading.

5 female-founded Houston startups shine as Innovation Awards finalists

meet the finalists

Houston is home to many standout female founders, making inroads and breakthroughs in every industry.

As part of the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, our Female-founded Business category honors women-led startups that are shaping Houston innovation.

Five female-founded businesses have been named finalists for the 2026 award. This year's finalists, selected by our esteemed panel of judges, range from an AI startup for C-Suite execs to a company developing semi-autonomous crawler robots for corrosion detection.

Read more about these innovative startups and the visionary female founders behind them below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Adair

Artificial intelligence startup Adair uses computational linguistics and behavioral economics to measure, model and quantify the impact of spoken and written language on firm valuation and stock prices. The company works with C-Suite executives of public companies on high-stakes communications before they go live.

The company was founded last year by CEO Kathleen Perley, CPO Alex Duong and CTO Anthony Grivet. It raised $5.6 million earlier this year, according to its application.

ARIX Technologies

Energytech startup ARIX Technologies has developed a semiautonomous VENUS crawler robot to detect corrosion under insulation before it becomes a failure. The robots climb insulated piping in refineries, chemical plants and energy facilities to capture inspection data without removing insulation or building scaffolding. ARIX's inspection portal then turns information from the inspection into data a company can act on.

ARIX was founded in 2017 by Dianna Liu, who serves as director, and Head of Product Petter Wehlin. Craig Malloy serves as CEO. The company has raised more than $22 million in seed funding and a Series A round, according to its application.

Bairitone Health

Healthtech startup Bairitone Health is bringing anatomy imaging for sleep apnea to the home environment. The company's platform maps users' anatomy during natural sleep using a facial patch to determine the root cause of airway obstruction. It then offers effective therapies for each patient.

The company was founded in 2022 in the Texas Medical Center's Biodesign program by CEO Meagan Pitcher, CTO Onur Kilic and chief medical officer Britt Cross. It was a member of Activate Houston's inaugural cohort and has participated in numerous accelerators and incubators. The company raised an oversubscribed seed round for $2.4 million earlier this year and received Breakthrough Device Designation from the Food and Drug Administration in April.

FlowCellutions

Energytech startup FlowCellutions is developing a chemistry-agnostic diagnostics platform for flow and metal-air batteries supporting data centers and critical infrastructure. The platform is designed to help reduce operating costs, prevent failures and costly downtime, and extend battery lifetime from approximately seven years to more than 30 years. It has deployed four paid pilots and plans to take insights from the programs to develop its next-gen sensor platform technology.

CEO Becca Segel founded the company in 2022. It is a member of Greentown Labs, and Segel was a 2025 Activate Fellow. The company has raised over $2 million in non-dilutive funding and received a $1.5 million NSF SBIR Fast-Track award earlier this year.

ParaDocs Health

Healthtech startup ParaDocs Health is developing a clinical intelligence platform that helps doctors and care teams streamline administrative tasks and make better use of patient records. Its technology organizes fragmented clinical data into actionable insights, helping care teams identify gaps in care, assess patient risks and simplify documentation and reimbursement.

ParaDocs was founded in 2022 by CEO Dr. Dhini Nasution and CTO Dr. Omar Mohtar. The company participated in the TMCi Biodesign Program and raised a preseed round last year, according to its application.

Rice University launches AI initiative, plans to hire 75 faculty

ai expansion

Houston’s Rice University announced a university-wide artificial intelligence initiative this week that includes hiring 75 new AI-focused faculty. It also shared new details about its planned state-of-the-art facility, The Arc.

Fresh off the announcement of Rice’s new Master of Artificial Intelligence (MAI) coming next fall, the university shared that it plans to expand its AI-related courses and be a “global leader in advanced computing and responsible AI.”

Rice reports that it has already hired 35 faculty members to deepen expertise across schools and departments regarding AI, and plans to recruit 40 more across disciplines including engineering, computing, health, energy, environmental resilience, business, humanities and the arts.

Rice's schools and departments have identified the four cluster areas to guide its hiring:

  • Foundational AI
  • AI for Health
  • AI for Energy, the Environment and Resiliency
  • Responsible AI: Society and Ethics

“Hiring exceptional faculty is essential, but it is only one part of the equation,” Amy Dittmar, Rice’s Howard R. Hughes Provost and executive vice president for academic affairs, said in a news release. “We are building the people, places and partnerships needed to advance AI from foundational discovery to societal impact.”

Another major component of the effort is the planned 200,000-square-foot facility, The Arc, which Rice announced will break ground this fall. Rice will occupy nearly 80,000 square feet of office and laboratory space dedicated to topics including AI, data science, robotics, computational engineering and energy. The university previously announced that The Arc would be completed in Q1 2028.

The Arc will also house the AI Foundry, which is being developed as a collaborative space for industry partners, scientists and students.

“As Rice grows, we are being intentional about where we invest and how we build,” Rice President Reginald DesRoches added in the release. “By bringing together exceptional faculty, a strong interdisciplinary research community, world-class facilities and Houston’s extraordinary innovation ecosystem, Rice has an opportunity not simply to participate in the AI revolution but to help define its future.”

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