Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Many Americans relocated to Texas’ Sunbelt region in 2022. Photo by GeoJango Maps on Unsplash

Most movers in 2022 set Houston as their destination, says new report

moving on in

Where did the most Americans relocate to in 2022? The answer, according to a new report from Penske Truck Rental, is Houston.

Many Americans relocated to Texas’ Sunbelt region in 2022, according to Penske's latest annual “Top Moving Destinations” report. This is Houston’s second consecutive year as the No. 1 moving destination, while Dallas (No. 7), San Antonio (No. 9), and Austin (No. 10) also appeared within the top 10. Based on the 2021 report, Dallas’ destination ranking remained the same, while San Antonio dropped further down from last year to No. 6, and Austin only fell one place.

Penske has been reporting on the migration patterns of Americans for 13 years, using data from the U.S. cities with the most inbound one-way consumer rentals throughout the year. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated 23.7 million Americans moved in 2022, which is about four percent more than in 2021.

In the report, Penske Senior Vice President Kevin Malloy said it’s “always exciting” to find out where the company’s customers are moving with each new release.

“We understand just how hectic the moving experience can be and pride ourselves on putting the consumer first throughout the rental experience,” he said.

Penske’s top 10 moving destinations in 2022 are:

  • No. 1 – Houston
  • No. 2 – Las Vegas
  • No. 3 – Orlando, Florida
  • No. 4 – Phoenix
  • No. 5 – Atlanta
  • No. 6 – Charlotte, North Carolina
  • No. 7 – Dallas
  • No. 8 – Jacksonville, Florida
  • No. 9 – San Antonio
  • No. 10 – Austin

With the arrival of National Moving Month in May, Penske decided to commemorate the month by releasing four specially-curated playlists on Spotify. Each playlist is under an hour and a half long, and has its own unique “vibe” to describe what it feels like to move. They also come with apt names: “Pack It Up,” “Moving on Mix,” “Forwarding Address,” and “Make This House, Home.”

The song choices are intended to “help people look forward to the journey ahead,” according to Malloy.

More information about Penske's report can be found on pensketruckrental.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

So this is how the other half lives. Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash

Here's the income it takes to live among the top 1 percent in Texas

isn't that rich?

Wondering how "the other half lives" is so outdated, especially when we we can easily peek into what life is like for the "one percent." A new report from SmartAsset reveals how much money you'll need to be considered the top one percent in Texas.

With two Houston suburbs landing among the richest cities in Texas in a recent report, it's obvious that the Lone Star State is dotted with pockets of wealth. But how much do you actually need in your pocket to have a top one percent income?

In Texas, an annual income of $641,400 will land you at the top, while $258,400 only gets you to the top five percent.

To come up with those numbers, SmartAsset analyzed 2019 data from IRS tax units and adjusted the figures to 2022 dollars using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For comparison, "the average American household earns a median income of under $70,000," according to the study. And per the latest figures from the U. S. Census Bureau, the median household income in Texas (in 2021 dollars) is $67,321. That leaves plenty of us with a long way to go in our financial striving.

So now we know how we compare to our neighbors, but where does that put the affluent population of Texas in comparison with other states?

For starters, Texas claimed the 10th highest income required to reach top income levels.

The one percent income threshold is hardest to meet in Connecticut ($955,000), Massachusetts ($900,000), New Jersey ($825,965), New York ($817,796), and California ($805,519). Only these five states have thresholds that exceed $800,00, and it's a pretty steep drop down to Texas ($641,400) in 10th place.

The five states where it's easiest to attain one percent status (even though that doesn't seem like good news) are Kentucky ($447,300), Arkansas ($446,276), New Mexico ($418,970), Mississippi ($383,128), and West Virginia ($374,712).

The SmartAsset report also included average tax rates for top earners in each state. There was surprisingly little variance in the top 10 states, with Washington state having the lowest rate (25.02%) and Connecticut collecting the highest tax rate (27.77%).

Texas was in the middle of the pack with a tax rate of 25.71% levied on top one percent incomes.

The 10 states with the highest earnings required to be a one-percenter and their tax rates are:

  1. Connecticut ($955.3K, Tax rate 27.77%)
  2. Massachusetts ($896.9K, Tax rate 26.4%)
  3. New Jersey ($826K, Tax rate 27.36%)
  4. New York ($817.8K, Tax rate 27.48%)
  5. California ($805.5K, Tax rate 26.78%)
  6. Washington ($736.1K, Tax rate 25.02%)
  7. Colorado ($682.9K, Tax rate 25.24%)
  8. Florida ($678.8K, Tax rate 25.23%)
  9. Illinois ($666.2K, Tax rate 26.23%)
  10. Texas ($641.4K, Tax rate 25.71%)
If you're on your way to being a top earner and want to do a deeper dive on those numbers, you can view the full report on the SmartAsset website.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Turns out Austin-born millennials haven't moved too far. Photo by Getty Images

Houston named No. 1 destination for millennials on the move from this Texas city

putting down roots

For the most part, Austin millennials have stayed close to home after entering adulthood, a new report indicates.

At age 26, nearly 70 percent of people who were born from 1984 to 1992 and raised in Austin remained there, according to the report. That leaves more than 30 percent who moved elsewhere.

Data compiled by researchers at Harvard University and the U.S. Census Bureau pinpoints Houston as the No. 1 target for millennials who lived in Austin at age 16 and grew up here but lived somewhere else in the U.S. at age 26. The Bayou City attracted 3.9 percent of millennial movers born from 1984 to 1992 (a large subset of the millennial generation) who grew up in Austin.

Bayou City was followed by San Antonio (3.1 percent), Dallas (2.8 percent), Killeen (1.3 percent), and Fort Worth (1.2 percent). These were the only Texas cities to surpass the 1 percent mark for the share of millennials born from 1984 to 1992 who had moved away from Austin. In 2022, these millennials are celebrating birthdays from 30 to 38.

These are the top five out-of-state destinations for Austin-raised, on-the-move millennials:

  • Los Angeles — 0.86 percent
  • New York City — 0.79 percent
  • Denver — 0.64 percent
  • Seattle — 0.50 percent
  • Washington, D.C. — 0.43 percent

The list of Texas places that sent millennials to Austin looks very similar to the list of places that gained millennials from Austin. The top five are Houston (6.7 percent of movers born from 1984 to 1992 who came to Austin), Dallas and San Antonio (3.7 percent each), Fort Worth (2 percent), and Brownsville (1.6 percent).

Los Angeles is the only out-of-state destination that broke the 1 percent barrier for millennials who relocated to Austin (1.6 percent), followed by Chicago (0.97 percent), Washington, D.C. (0.63 percent), Detroit (0.51 percent), and Boston and New York City (0.49 percent each).

The geographic regions cited in the report are not metro areas but, instead, are commuting zones. A commuting zone represents a collection of counties that define an area’s labor market.

Researchers relied on federal tax, population, and housing data to assemble the report.

The statistics for Austin largely align with nationwide trends. The researchers say 80 percent of young-adult movers in the U.S. had relocated less than 100 miles from where they grew up and 90 percent had moved less than 500 miles.

“The majority of young adults stay close to home,” the researchers explain. “Average migration distances are shorter for Black and Hispanic young adults than for White and Asian young adults. Average migration distances are also shorter for those with lower levels of parental income.”

“For many individuals,” the researchers conclude, “the ‘radius of economic opportunity’ is quite narrow.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

A recent report finds that the rate of new Houston startups has popped up significantly. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Report: Houston sees huge jump in new businesses amid the pandemic

by the numbers

By one measure, Houston could be considered the startup capital of Texas.

A new study by personal finance website LendingTree shows the Houston metro area experienced a 37.4 percent jump in new-business applications from 2019 to 2020. That was the highest growth rate among Texas’ six biggest metro areas and the 20th highest growth rate among the 100 U.S. metro areas with the most new-business applications in 2020.

In 2019, the Houston area racked up 85,998 new-business applications, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by LendingTree. A year later, the number of applications in the region soared to 118,183. The data measures applications for nine-digit employer identification numbers (EINs), which the IRS uses to track businesses for tax purposes. An EIN is similar to a person’s Social Security number.

“The pandemic has created so much financial chaos for so many people, and that uncertainty surely spurred many Americans to take the plunge,” says Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“Some folks did it out of necessity because of income or job losses,” he adds. “Some folks did it to feel more secure, as the idea of relying on one source of income just didn’t make sense anymore for a lot of people. Others likely did it because they’d wanted to for years but never felt the time was right.”

Across the U.S., the retail sector witnessed the heftiest increase (59.7 percent) in new-business applications from 2019 to 2020.

“So many companies have made it so easy to sell online that people feel good about taking the plunge,” Schulz says. “Setting up an online store is generally simpler, quicker and less expensive than ever, so the barriers to entry that once scared potential entrepreneurs away from opening a new store aren’t the obstacles that they once were.”

Memphis, Tennessee, topped the LendingTree list. The metro area saw a 77.9 rise in new-business applications from 2019 to 2020.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas ranked 37th nationally and second in Texas, with a 29 percent increase in new-business applications.
  • San Antonio ranked 62nd nationally and third in Texas, with an 18 percent increase in new-business applications.
  • McAllen ranked 77th nationally and fourth in Texas, with a 13.3 percent increase in new-business applications.
  • Austin ranked 78th nationally and fifth in Texas, with a 13.2 percent increase in new-business applications.
  • El Paso ranked 79th nationally and sixth in Texas, with an 11.9 percent increase in new-business applications.
Houston "super commuters" travel 90-plus minutes each way. Photo via Getty Images

Houston's number of 'super commuters' driven up by almost 70 percent, says new report

on the road again

Long commutes are nothing new in Houston. The average worker in Houston spent nearly 27 minutes commuting to work each day — above the national average of 26.4.

A new development in shuttling to work has developed: super commuters. In fact, the number of so-called "super commuters" — those traveling at least 90 minutes to get to work, and another 90 minutes or more to get home, is on the rise.

According to newly released data from new analysis by Apartment List of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Houston area boasts 85,000 super commuters in the region, representing 2.6 percent of our total workforce.

The number of super commuters in the Houston region grew by 68.3 percent from 2010-2019, compared to the 23.0 percent growth rate of the region's overall workforce.

Houston ranks tenth among the regions in the study for the number of super commuters in 2019.

Some 13 percent of the region's super commuters live within a 10-mile radius of downtown, says Apartment List data, demonstrating that not all super commuters travel long distances. Nationally, 13.5 percent of all workers who commute by public transit are super commuters, and transit riders are five times more likely to be super commuters compared to drivers.

In the Greater Houston region, super commuting is most prevalent in Trinity County, where 11 percent of all workers are super commuters, per Apartment List.

According to Apartment List, the rise of remote work "is unlikely to meaningfully alleviate" the long-term trend of more American workers becoming super commuters.

"Since the start of the pandemic, the fastest rent growth in large metros has been occurring in the further suburbs and exurbs, indicating that hybrid remote work arrangement[s] could create a new class of part-time super commuters," Apartment list notes.

In Texas, North Texas grew 49 percent in super commuters from 2010 to 2019.

Stockton, California, notched the biggest share of super commuters in the study (25 percent of the workforce). Elsewhere in Northern California, the San Francisco Bay Area saw the largest growth rate for super commuting from 2010 to 2019 — a whopping 255 percent.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston founders named winners for 2023 Entrepreneur of the Year awards

winner, winner

Houston’s Gaurab Chakrabarti and Sean Hunt, the founders of the transformative chemical manufacturing company Solugen, have been named EY’s US National Award winners for Entrepreneur of the Year.

Solugen, also recently named a finalist in the 2023 Houston Innovation Awards, is an environmentally friendly approach that relies on smaller chemical refineries that helps in reducing costs and transportation-related emissions. Some of their noted accomplishments includes innovations like the proprietary reactor, dubbed the Bioforge, which is a carbon-negative molecule factory and manufacturing process produces zero wastewater or emissions compared with traditional petrochemical refineries.The Bioforge uses a chemienzymatic process in converting plant-sourced substances into essential materials that can be used instead of fossil fuels.

Chakrabarti and Hunt were originally named regional winners in this year's competition this summer along with nine other Houston entrepreneurs.

Founded in 2016 by Hunt and Gaurab Chakrabarti, Solugen has raised over $600 million from investors like Sasol that believe in the technology's potential. The company is valued at reportedly over $2 billion. Solugen is headquartered in Houston, not because it is the hometown of Chakrabarti, but for what Houston brings to the company.

“There’s no way our business could succeed in the Bay Area," Chakrabarti said in a 2023 interview at SXSW where he detailed the offers Hunt and he received to move the business out of state. “For our business, if you look at the density of chemical engineers, the density of our potential customers, and the density of people who know how to do enzyme engineering, Houston happened to be that perfect trifecta for us.”

Even though they are headquartered in Houston, Solugen recently secured plans to expand to the Midwest, as in November they announced its newest strategic partnership with sustainable solutions company ADM (NYSE:ADM) in Marshall, Minnesota. The partnership includes plans for Solugen to build a 500,000-square-foot biomanufacturing facility next to an existing ADM facility , with the two companies working together on producing biomaterials to replace fossil fuel products.

“The strategic partnership with ADM will allow Solugen to bring our chemienzymatic process to a commercial scale and meet existing customer demand for our high-performance, cost-competitive, sustainable products,” Chakrabarti said in a news release. “As one of the few scaled-up and de-risked biomanufacturing assets in the country, Solugen’s Bioforge platform is helping bolster domestic capabilities and supply chains that are critical in ensuring the U.S. reaches its ambitious climate targets.”

For Chakrabarti and Hunt, Solugen was born out of a 12-year friendship, and the journey began after a friendly card game. After an entrepreneurship contest at MIT, which earned them second place and a $10,000 prize, they invested the winnings to work on what would become Solugen, a proof-of-concept reactor with materials bought from a local home improvement store.

"We had a conviction that we were building something that could be impactful to the rest of the world,” Chakrabarti said at SXSW in 2023.

Houston-founded unicorn logistics company returns HQ to the Bayou City

coming home

While originally founded in Houston in 2020, Cart.com has called Austin home for the past two years. Now, the scaling software company is coming home.

Cart.com, a tech company providing commerce and logistical solutions for businesses, announced today that its corporate headquarters has returned to Houston amid its rapid growth.

“I couldn’t be happier to bring Cart.com back home to Houston as we continue to revolutionize how merchants sell and fulfill products to meet customers anywhere they are,” Cart.com Founder and CEO Omair Tariq says in a news release. “The idea for Cart.com was born in Houston and we’ve always maintained a strong local presence with the majority of our executive team and board based here. As our customer mix increasingly moves upmarket and our own needs evolve, I’m confident Houston has what we need as we look towards the next stage of Cart.com’s growth story.”

The company has raised over $400 million in venture funding over the past three years, and has grown a customer base of 6,000 users, supporting over $8 billion in gross merchandise value, according to Cart.com. After making several acquisitions, the company also operates 14 fulfillment centers nationwide.

Cart.com's most recent raise, a $60 million series C round this summer, was announced to support an international expansion. Last year, the company secured $240 million in equity and debt funding.

According to the release, the relocation comes at a time of "unprecedented growth" for the business, which calls out Houston's central location, transportation infrastructure, and dynamic business community.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Cart.com home and proud to have one of the country’s fastest-growing unicorns back in Houston,” Bob Harvey, president and CEO of Greater Houston Partnership, in the release. “Cart.com’s homecoming is a testament to why companies repeatedly choose Houston to scale their business with its diverse and dynamic economy along with its unparalleled talent pool that cuts across technology, professional services and global trade. We’re excited to support Cart.com’s continued growth and look forward to the company’s contribution to Houston’s growing tech community.”

Earlier this month, Tariq was named a regional winner in the Entrepreneur Of The Year program, run by professional services firm EY. He was one of 11 Houston-based executives named in the Gulf South region and now will move on to national Entrepreneur Of The Year program.

3 Houston innovators to know this week

who's who

Editor's note: In this week's roundup of Houston innovators to know, I'm introducing you to three local innovators across industries recently making headlines in Houston innovation.

Carolyn Rodz and Elizabeth Gore, co-founders of Hello Alice

Hello Alice Co-Founders Carolyn Rodz and Elizabeth Gore join the Houston Innovators Podcast to discuss the lawsuit they're facing. Photo courtesy Cayce Clifford/Hello Alice

For years, Hello Alice has been helping small businesses across the country get equitable access to funding and support. Now, the Houston tech company is facing its own obstacle: An affirmative action lawsuit.

"I don't think in a million years that we ever expected anything like this," Elizabeth Gore, co-founder and president of Hello Alice, says on the Houston Innovators Podcast. "There's surprise, then there's fear, and then there's anger. But now on the other side of it, we're emboldened, confident, and more passionate than ever."

America First Legal's lawsuit against Hello Alice and its partner, Progressive Insurance, alleges that their program to award10 $25,000 grants to Black-owned small businesses constitutes racial discrimination. AFL was founded by former Trump Administration adviser Stephen Miller and features a handful of other former White House officials on its board. Read more.

Kelly McCormick, professor at University of Houston's C.T. Bauer College of Business

UH Professor Kelly McCormick is shaking things up with a new class — on Taylor Swift. Photo via UH.edu

This spring, University of Houston business students can enroll in “The Entrepreneurial Genius of Taylor Swift,” the new class is part of the curriculum at coming to the C. T. Bauer College of Business at the University of Houston. Swfities who’re super “ready for it,” however, can get a jump on enrollment now.

“You definitely don’t have to be a hardcore fan — a Swiftie — to learn and appreciate the entrepreneurial genius that has made Taylor Swift an international phenomenon,” notes Kelly McCormick, the Professor of Practice leading the course, citing Swift’s expertise in marketing, fan engagement, community building, and brand strategies.Read more.

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