Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Abbott assembles expert team to help lure U.S. Space Academy to Texas

space race

State Rep. Greg Bonnen of Friendswood has been tapped to lead a new team that will promote Texas as the future home of the U.S. Space Academy.

Bonnen, a neurosurgeon, chairs Houston Physicians’ Hospital and the powerful Texas House Appropriations Committee. His House district is close to NASA’s Johnson Space Center.

Gov. Greg Abbott appointed the seven-member team. Last month, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Presidential Commission on the U.S. Space Academy. Commission members, who held their first meeting this month, will recommend a permanent location for the academy.

Texas officials are pushing a site near Johnson Space Center to host the academy. Alabama, Colorado and Florida are among Texas’ competitors.

In a joint statement, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Brian Babin, both of Texas, issued a statement backing the state’s bid for the academy. Cruz lives in Houston. Babbin lives in Woodville, about 55 miles south of Beaumont.

“America’s space program is built across the country, but Texas is where the pieces come together,” the lawmakers said. “We are ready to lead the next generation of space pioneers and look forward to showing why Texas is the right home for the U.S. Space Academy.”

The academy’s curriculum will include technical education, leadership development and public service components. Graduates will be set up for careers in the U.S. military, civil service, and aerospace sectors.

The Abbott-appointed team will work with the Texas Space Commission to prepare the state’s proposal for the academy.

In addition to Bonnen, team members with ties to Houston include:

  • Robert Ambrose, who grew up in Houston. He worked at Johnson Space Center before becoming associate director of the Texas A&M Space Institute.
  • Former NASA astronaut Nancy Curry-Gregg, director of the Texas A&M Space Institute. She earned a doctoral degree from the University of Houston and previously worked at Johnson Space Center.
  • Former NASA astronaut Jack Fischer, senior vice president of Houston-based Intuitive Machines. The company builds spacecraft, delivers payloads to the moon and launches satellites.

“Texas is the home of America’s human spaceflight program,” Abbott said in a release. “No state can match what Texas brings to this mission.”

“NASA’s Johnson Space Center, world-class universities, a premier commercial space industry, major military installations, and an unmatched aerospace workforce give Texas every asset the United States Space Academy requires,” the governor added.

Houston university named No. 10 in nation and more top innovation news

Trending News

Editor's note: September sees a flurry of news for the innovation community, with one Houston university topping a nationwide ranking and one Houston-area NASA contractor poised to go public. Here are the five most-read Houston innovation headlines published September 1-15, 2026:

Houston university ranks No. 10 best in the U.S. in new 2027 report

Education ranking and review website Niche has released its 2027 rankings of the best colleges in the U.S., and Rice University leads as the No. 1 best university in Texas, and No. 10 best nationwide. Rice University ranked 10th in three national lists: Best Colleges in America, Top Private Universities, and Colleges with the Best Professors. Continue reading.

Houston-area NASA contractor plans Nasdaq IPO

Webster-based NASA contractor Rothe Development Inc. has filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to go public. Rothe, a minority- and woman-owned business, hasn’t yet identified how many shares it will sell and how much money its IPO might raise. Rothe plans to offer Class B common stock on the Nasdaq exchange. Continue reading.

10+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for September

The energy transition and AI will be the talk of this town this month, thanks to a packed calendar of Houston events. September brings the return of Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week and some of its signature anchor events, plus AI conferences and talks exploring how the technology is impacting everything from healthcare to leadership. Here’s what not to miss and how to register. Continue reading.

Amazon's robotaxi service Zoox rolls out in 'sprawling' Houston market

Amazon-owned robotaxi ride-hailing service Zoox is zooming into Houston in September, becoming the latest robotaxi operator jockeying for local riders. Initially, self-driving retrofitted SUVs with safety drivers on board will serve downtown Houston, centrally located tourist hotspots, and certain residential neighborhoods. The SUVs will test Houston roads before Zoox rolls out autonomous robotaxis here, the company says. Continue reading.

10 Houston billionaires land on Forbes' 2026 list of richest Americans

The richest billionaires in America have a collective worth of $8 trillion in 2026, a staggering $1.4 trillion increase since last year, says Forbes. American billionaires are so wealthy that it now takes an unprecedented $4.4 billion net worth to be considered one of the richest people in the country. And one local billionaire has regained the title as Houston's wealthiest resident. Oil tycoon Jeffery Hildebrand, 67, now reigns as the No. 1 richest Houstonian, the 9th richest Texan, and the 88th richest person in America for 2026. Continue reading.

Houston space companies take off with new tech, deals and contracts

space update

Space City has had a busy month.

Houston-based aerospace institutions Venus Aerospace, Axiom Space, and Aegis Aerospace have each recently announced advancements in their respective fields that include expansions and new contracts from U.S. and international government agencies.

Here’s the latest:

Venus launches new test stand

Earlier this month, Venus Aerospace added infrastructure to support the ongoing progress of its Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine (RDRE) with the opening of its new propulsion test stand at the Houston Spaceport.

The Texas Space Commission's Space Exploration and Aeronautics Research Fund is funding the test stand, which is part of a larger effort from the state to increase investments in the aerospace economy. The ribbon-cutting event on Sept. 10 welcomed officials from Venus Aerospace, the Texas Space Commission, the Houston Spaceport, Houston business and local community leaders.

With the new stand, Venus will be able to test at higher thrust and for longer durations, which will allow the company to better replicate real-life conditions.

"Building and testing propulsion systems at this pace requires the right infrastructure around the technology," Sassie Duggleby, CEO and co-founder of Venus Aerospace, said in a news release. "We're grateful to the Texas Space Commission and the State of Texas for investing alongside companies like Venus. Public investment like this helps companies move faster and keeps critical aerospace capability growing here in Texas."

Venus closed a $91 million Series B in July and expanded its leadership team.

Axiom partners in Europe

Axiom Space has signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Space Agency for “sustained European access to low-Earth orbit (LEO)” following the retirement of the International Space Station, according to a news release from the company.

Under the agreement, Axiom and the ESA agreed to explore future astronaut missions on the ISS and Axiom Station, research, transportation and spacesuit partnerships. The organizations will explore using the ESA’s European Cargo Return service and potentially a future European crew vehicle to support operations at Axiom Station, the company's forthcoming commercial space station. The partnership could also involve Axiom's AxEMU spacesuit for orbital and lunar applications, according to the release.

“With the upcoming de-orbitation of the ISS, it is our duty to anticipate and prepare future solutions to ensure our access to low-Earth orbit,” Daniel Neuenschwander, director of human and robotic exploration at ESA, said in the release. “The two documents signed today underline both our commitment to safeguard our ability to pursue in-orbit science and to keep offering flight opportunities to our European astronaut corps, as well as the growing interest of international partners for our ongoing project to develop an autonomous European cargo vehicle.”

The announcement comes as Axiom has made several international moves this year. The company shared plans to establish Axiom Space Switzerland this summer and launched Axiom Space Japan in July.

"The path to a sustainable human presence in space runs through international collaboration — reliable supply chains, shared innovation, and partners who bring real capability," Jonathan Cirtain, CEO and President of Axiom Space, said in the release. "Europe's contributions to microgravity science and deep space technology make ESA exactly that kind of partner. This MoU strengthens our work together, and we look forward to ESA and its member states joining us as customers for future astronaut missions."

Aegis expands DoW deal

Webster, Texas-based Aegis Aerospace announced that it has won a new task order to continue supporting the U.S. Space Force’s Space Test Program.

The contract starts in October and covers designing, building, testing and operating Department of War payloads or equipment on NASA, government, and commercial launch vehicles and platforms. The contract was issued by the USSF Space Systems Command, Space Test Program under NASA Johnson Space Center’s Research, Engineering, and Mission Integration Services 2 (REMIS 2).

Currently, the company is working on three payload facilities on the ISS and has plans for two more in development.

“Aegis Aerospace is grateful to continue our exceptional payload integration support to the USSF and the STP to meet their critical mission objectives,” President Matt Ondler added in the release. “This work is more important than ever to maintain U.S. superiority in space. This new contract will take us beyond the current life of the ISS and see us integrate and test payloads on commercial space stations, free-flyers, and cislunar missions.”

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