Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Meet the esteemed judges for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards

Meet The Judges

Editor's note: Judging is now underway for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, and it's time to meet the decision makers.

Our 2026 judging panel comprises past award winners who represent a variety of industries and areas of expertise. They are joined by InnovationMap's interim editor. All are deeply engaged in the Houston innovation ecosystem.

Our judging panel will review all nominee applications submitted across 10 prestigious categories. They will determine the 2026 finalists in all categories, and they will select the winners in all but one category — our people's choice award for Startup of the Year.

The sixth annual Houston Innovation Awards program will be presented in an all-digital format in 2026. We will announce this year's finalists and feature their stories throughout our special editorial series this fall. Then, stay tuned as we reveal the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards winners on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Sagar Dalal, Fervo Energy, 2025 Scaleup of the Year

Sagar Dalal

Sagar Dalal serves as chief of staff at Fervo Energy, a company pioneering the commercialization of next-generation geothermal power. In this role, he helps translate the CEO’s vision and priorities into execution, leading cross-functional strategic initiatives that support the company’s growth and operations.

Dalal brings nearly eight years of experience in structural engineering and project management from his time at Thornton Tomasetti and Tesla, where he engineered and built a wide range of infrastructure projects ranging from stadiums to manufacturing facilities. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and an MS in Civil Engineering from Texas A&M University. He is also a licensed professional engineer.

Aaron Fitzgerald, Mars Materials, 2025 Minority-founded Business of the Year

Aaron Fitzgerald

Aaron Fitzgerald is a three-time founder and carbon removal entrepreneur focused on reimagining how we make things. As the CEO of Mars Materials, he leads a team working to commercialize technologies that sequester captured carbon into industrial supply chains.

His vision for a defossilized future is shaped by a unique path through both policy, including a tenure in the United States Senate, and deep carbontech, with fellowships at The Lewis Latimer program, Breakthrough Energy, Prime Coalition, and Carbon 180.

Tatiana Fofanova, Koda Health, 2025 Health Tech Business of the Year

Tatiana Fofonova

Tatiana Fofanova, PhD, is the co-founder and CEO of Koda Health, an AI-enhanced patient decision support platform designed to make advance care planning (ACP) scalable, accessible, and patient-centered for patients with serious illness.

After earning her PhD in Translational Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, she joined Texas Medical Center (TMC) as a Founder-in-Residence. It was there that she and her co-founders identified one of the most overlooked yet critical gaps in healthcare: the lack of meaningful, accessible advance care planning. Under her leadership, Koda Health now supports over 1 million patients through partnerships with organizations like Cigna, Privia, and Houston Methodist.

Lawson Gow, Greentown Labs, 2025 Incubator/Accelerator of the Year

Lawson Gow currently serves as chief strategy officer for Greentown Labs, which was named Incubator/Accelerator of the Year in the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards. Prior to joining Greentown Labs as Head of Houston in 2025, Gow was as a managing partner at Helium Capital, an investment and advisory firm that aims to support founders across the entire lifecycle of entrepreneurship.

He is also the founder of The Cannon, an innovation-infrastructure provider that operates a growing network of innovation hubs for its community of startups, entrepreneurs, investors, and corporate innovators.

Sarah Hein, March Biosciences, 2025 Female-founded Business of the Year

Sarah Hein

Sarah Hein is the founding CEO of March Biosciences, a clinical-stage cell-therapy company targeting challenging malignancies. Prior to cofounding March Biosciences, she was the founding Entrepreneur in Residence for the Texas Medical Center Innovation Accelerator for Cancer Therapeutics (TMCi ACT).

Formerly, she was a cofounder and the vice president of operations at Courier Therapeutics, a cancer immunotherapy startup acquired by Valo Health. She was also director of research at Resonant Therapeutics, an antibody therapeutics platform technology company. She began at Mercury Fund as a Venture Fellow directly after graduating with her PhD in Molecular Biology from Baylor College of Medicine.

Tanu Jain, FlowCare, 2025 Startup of the Year

Tanu Jain

Tanu Jain is a product executive, entrepreneur, founder and CEO of FlowCare, and registered nurse with a track record of building products from zero to global scale. She previously led product at BioIQ before founding FlowCare, a Houston-based period care infrastructure platform making period care a standard in every restroom. In under 16 months, FlowCare has signed deployed across four enterprise customers and impacted more than 1.5 million women.

FlowCare was named Startup of the Year at the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards, and Jain has been recognized with additional honors including the SDG Super Changemaker – Pewter — at the Global Sustainability Awards 2026.

Prabhdeep "Prab" Sekhon, Eclipse Energy, 2025 Energy Transition Business of the Year

Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon

Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon is CEO of Eclipse Energy, an energy technology company transforming depleted oil fields into low-cost, sustainable hydrogen resources through subsurface biotechnology. He brings nearly two decades of global energy experience spanning climate technology, venture capital, private equity, and multi-billion-dollar energy projects across five continents.

Previously, he held leadership roles at NextEra Energy Resources and Hess Corporation. He is also a founder and managing director of GreenLite Resources and a founding member of Cotogna Sports Group. He holds an MBA from Wharton, a Masters in Engineering from Texas A&M, and a BS from the University of Calgary.

Wade Pinder, Product Houston, 2025 Trailblazer Award Winner

Wade Pinder thinks of himself as an "ecosystem wayseeker," helping founders and builders in and around Houston find their footing, understand the landscape, and move through uncertainty with more clarity. Through Product Houston, he works at the intersection of product strategy, founder support, ecosystem mapping, and community-building, with a particular focus on helping people show up in the right rooms before they feel fully ready.

His background includes years in product management at Blinds.com and Home Depot, along with founding and leading the Houston Product Community for six years. He was recognized by as Mentor of the Year in the 2023 Houston Innovation Awards and received the Trailblazer Award in 2025.

Laura Furr Mericas, Interim Editor, InnovationMap

Laura Furr Mericas is interim editor for InnovatonMap.com and EnergyCapitalHTX.com. She is a longtime contributor to both sites and has reported on Houston's innovation ecosystem for InnovationMap since 2020. Previously, she served as web editor and data reporter for Houston Business Journal.

Report: Income for top 1 percent earners in Texas has surged in 2026

money matters

In a state where local billionaires are wealthier than they've ever been, high-earning Texans need to make $73,000 more than they did a year ago if they want to be among the top 1 percent of earners, a new report has revealed.

SmartAsset's study analyzed income thresholds for the top 1, 5, and 10 percent of earners in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, using 2022 IRS data for individual tax return filers (the most recent year available), adjusted to 2026 dollars.

Texas has the 11th highest income threshold, with residents needing to make a minimum of $817,158 to be considered among the top 1 percent of earners statewide. In 2025, Texans needed to make about $744,000 to be among the top 1 percent.

For comparison, residents living in the nation's capital must make at least $1.16 million to qualify as top 1 percent earners. The District of Columbia led the nation with the highest income threshold to be a top earner.

To be considered among the top 5 percent of earners in Texas, a resident would need to make $312,671. The income threshold to be considered among the top 10 percent is $210,609.

SmartAsset additionally found that 128,130 Texas residents qualified as top 1 percent earners in 2022. Nationally, the report estimated that fewer than 2 million households earn enough to be considered among the top 1 percent of earners nationwide, but 23 million households rank among the top 10 percent.

"In some places, households can enter the top 1 percent at income levels that fall well below the threshold elsewhere, reflecting an uneven landscape of wages and wealth," the report said.

A separate SmartAsset study that tracked the upper and lower thresholds for middle class households found Houston residents need to make anywhere from $42,907 to $128,722 to maintain their middle class status.

The top 10 states with the highest thresholds to be considered in the top 1 percent of earners in the U.S. are:

  • No. 1 – District of Columbia ($1,156,664)
  • No. 2 – Connecticut ($1,147,898)
  • No. 3 – Massachusetts ($1,006,921)
  • No. 4 – California ($987,325)
  • No. 5– New Jersey ($969,976)
  • No. 6 – New York ($959,562)
  • No. 7 – Florida ($956,449)
  • No. 8 – Washington ($903,303)
  • No. 9 – Colorado ($828,772)
  • No. 10 – Wyoming ($819,014)
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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Here’s where wages grew the most in Houston since 2021, according to new report

pay raise

Bolstered by a thriving manufacturing sector, Waller County—the country’s second-fastest-growing county—leads all Houston-area counties for the growth of pay from 2021 to 2026, according to a new study.

The study, conducted by personal finance website SmartAsset, found average pay in Waller County rose 48 percent from 2021 to 2026. The county’s average weekly pay climbed from $891 to $1,323 during that period.

Manufacturing ranks as the No. 1 employment sector in Waller County, accounting for about 4,500 workers, according to Executive Pulse. Those workers earn an average pay of $77,442 per year.

Waller County powers up its manufacturing hub

Waller County’s manufacturing economy keeps expanding, almost certainly contributing to the 48 percent spike in average pay from 2021 to 2026.

Grundfos, the world’s largest producer of water pumps, broke ground in June on a manufacturing plant at its Brookshire campus. The Danish company’s U.S. headquarters is in Brookshire. In conjunction with the groundbreaking, Grundfos opened the Grundfos Academy Americas training center.

The new 143,000-square-foot facility will make pump systems and water technology, primarily for water utilities and commercial real estate landlords.

Grundfos expects construction to be completed by Q3 2027, with the first production lines planned to start in Q4 of next year.

“Our growing presence in Brookshire reflects both our confidence in the U.S. market and our long‑term commitment to investing where our customers and partners need us most,” Grundfos CEO Poul Due Jensen said in a release.

Another manufacturer, TMEIC Corporation America, recently opened its third U.S. plant at Twinwood Business Park in Brookshire. The 280,000-square-foot facility, which eventually might employ 500 people, makes uninterruptible power supply units and medium-voltage power drives. The $65 million plant includes a customer training center and tech development labs.

The Twinwood facility is the largest of TMEIC’s 13 factories around the world.

TMEIC’s two other U.S. manufacturing plants are in the Houston area. The company’s North American headquarters is in the Houston Energy Corridor.

Perhaps the biggest recent manufacturing prize for Waller County: Austin-based electric vehicle maker Tesla’s new 1.65 million-square-foot factory at Brookshire’s Empire West Industrial Park. The $200 million plant, expected to employ up to 1,500 people by 2028, produces utility-scale batteries for energy storage.

Other major manufacturers in Waller County include Daikin North America and Igloo.

Pay growth around the region

Here’s a rundown of 2021-26 pay growth in the Houston metro’s eight other counties, according to SmartAsset.

  • Austin County — 42 percent
  • Chambers County — 37 percent
  • Harris County — 33 percent
  • Liberty County — 31 percent
  • Montgomery County — 29 percent
  • Fort Bend County — 28 percent
  • Galveston County — 26 percent
  • Brazoria County — 23 percent

Statewide, Dickens County, outside of Lubbock, saw the most significant growth in wages. According to the study, wages grew by 212 percent over the five years, from $707 per week in 2021 to $2,204 per week in 2026.

Among all Texas counties, Waller was ranked No. 44 on the report.

Small counties in the High Plains and West Texas regions saw the largest percent changes in average weekly wage, according to the report. See the full findings here.

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