Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston ranks No. 2 for share of AI talent in professional services

AI surge

Houston’s professional and business services sector—think law, accounting, consulting, and engineering firms—grabs one of the industry’s biggest shares of AI talent.

A report from commercial real estate services giant CBRE ranks Houston No. 2 among the top 50 U.S. and Canadian tech markets for the concentration of AI talent in professional and business services.

Houston’s share of AI talent in professional and business services stands at 26 percent, the report shows. Washington, D.C., tops the list at 31 percent. At 25 percent, Dallas-Fort Worth claims the No. 3 spot.

CBRE based the AI ranking on data from the LinkedIn networking platform.

The company’s researchers tallied 11,709 AI-related tech jobs in Houston. Nationwide, data scientists lead AI-related job growth in the U.S., according to the report.

“AI software and hardware developers are currently the most sought-after tech talent by employers,” the report says.

Houston faces AI talent gap

DoubleTrack, a provider of AI and data consulting, reported in June that Houston faces an AI talent gap.

“The places where businesses say they will adopt AI over the next six months, well ahead of where they are today, are mostly the same places already short on talent: Miami, Houston, and Denver among the metros, South Dakota and South Carolina among the states,” DoubleTrack said.

This labor shortage comes amid Houston’s ascent as an AI hub. For instance, a factory being built here by AI chipmaker NVIDIA and electronics manufacturer Foxconn will produce AI supercomputers and infrastructure systems.

Houston’s place in the sphere of tech talent

Overall, Houston ranks No. 32 in the CBRE report among the top 50 U.S. and Canadian markets for tech talent. The San Francisco Bay Area claims the top spot, with Austin at No. 5 and DFW at No. 8.

CBRE relied on 13 metrics to rank tech talent markets, including concentration of tech talent, tech talent pipeline, and research-and-development investments.

Here are other Houston details from the report:

  • In 2025, Houston’s tech talent workforce numbered 104,080, up 7.3 percent over the past three years.
  • Houston’s average wage for tech talent within the tech industry was $120,216 in 2025, up 13.3 percent over the past three years.

New pilot program for air taxis, Project Nexus, takes flight in Texas

Project Nexus

By 2029, Texas skies could be buzzing with air taxis, much like they are with drones today.

To kick off the "Project Nexus" pilot program in Texas, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and Texas Department of Transportation officials attended an event September 10 at Fort Worth Alliance Airport, which serves as the launchpad for a statewide pilot program that could result in air taxis, self-piloted planes, and vertical take-off-and-landing aircraft permanently buzzing across the skies of Texas.

It was the first demonstration in Texas of next-generation aircraft under the pilot program; Texas is the sixth state to participate in the program.

Air taxi service on the radar
The federal government has teamed up with aviation companies BETA Technologies and Joby Aviation, as well as the Texas Department of Transportation, to develop regional air taxi service in Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and eventually Houston.

Roger Venables, Fort Worth’s aviation director, said in January that he foresees regular air taxi service becoming a reality in the next five years.

On September 12, a Joby-made electric air taxi took a roundtrip flight between Fort Worth Alliance and Dallas Fort Worth International Airport to test flight operations.

The mission was part of a five-day test involving Fort Worth Alliance and DFW Airport flights, and flights over the Fort Worth Stockyards, Toyota Motor North America’s Plano headquarters, and other sites.

A new facility at Fort Worth Alliance will be Joby’s long-term home for regional flight operations.

Building a 'framework' for electric aircraft
TxDOT said Project Nexus is aimed at creating “a scalable system” to connect urban areas, rural communities, and neighboring states as air mobility technology advances.

In a TxDOT release, Marc Williams, the agency’s executive director, said the pilot program will “build a framework for how electric aircraft could one day connect people, goods, and communities across the state.”

Three-phase project will test flight capabilities

Initial flights in the third-year pilot program won’t carry passengers, according to TxDOT. Instead, the flights will gather data, validate air travel routes, and help improve the safety of air mobility technology.

The first phase of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Project Nexus will feature piloted aircraft such as helicopters and fixed-wing planes. CultureMap previously reported Plano-based VertiPorts by Atlantic, which develops takeoff and landing sites for airplane-helicopter hybrids, would be part of Project Nexus.

The second phase will involve testing airborne medical and cargo logistics. This includes transporting critical medical supplies or donor organs between rural and urban hospitals in the Austin and San Antonio areas.

In the third and final phase, passengers will fly aboard air taxis across the Texas Triangle. Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio anchor the triangle.

“In Texas, we don’t wait for the future to arrive, we build it,” Cruz said in the TxDOT release. “The Lone Star State is pushing the boundaries by testing the next generation of aircraft through Project Nexus.”

“These technologies will connect communities, expand access to jobs and services, and strengthen supply chains,” the senator added. “What starts in Texas will help shape the future of aviation throughout the entire country.”

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston-area NASA contractor plans Nasdaq IPO

going public

Webster-based NASA contractor Rothe Development Inc. has filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to go public.

Rothe, a minority- and woman-owned business, hasn’t yet identified how many shares it will sell and how much money its IPO might raise. Rothe plans to offer Class B common stock on the Nasdaq exchange.

CEO Karen Wheeler-Hall owns all of the Class A shares and would retain majority control after the IPO, according to the SEC filing. The company plans to use $2.4 million of the IPO proceeds so Wheeler-Hall can pay off a loan from the seller for her 2021 acquisition of Rothe.

From last December to this May, the company raised about $2.1 million in a pre-IPO private placement at $1 per share, the SEC filing shows.

Rothe runs NASA training lab in Houston

Founded in 1967, Rothe supplies engineering, technology, operations and technical services to NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, other federal agencies, commercial space operators, and regulated industries.

Rothe is likely best known for operating NASA’s Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory in Houston. The lab trains astronauts for spacewalks and simulates space missions. It supports NASA’s International Space Station and Artemis programs.

Company sees room for growth

In the SEC filing, Rothe said it operates in several expanding markets driven by rising investments, including space exploration, national security, cybersecurity and digital infrastructure.

“We believe these market trends create significant opportunities for continued growth across both government and commercial sectors,” the company said.

Rothe generated nearly $126.4 million in revenue last year, up from $117.3 million the previous year. However, the company swung to a $700,000 operating loss in 2025 versus $1.8 million in operating income in 2024.

At the end of 2025, Rothe’s workforce comprised 385 employees and 25 subcontractors. The company also works in the cybersecurity, computer engineering, software development, multimedia and communication, and commercial calibration sectors, according to its website.

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