Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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7+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events in May

where to be

Editor’s note: Houston is living up to its nicknames as Space City and the Energy Capital of the World this month with a lineup of insightful talks, pitch days and industry conferences. Plus, there are opportunities to network over crawfish, learn about brain health and more. Here’s what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.

May 7 – Ion Block Party and Crawfish Boil

Head to this special edition Block Party, featuring a crawfish cook-off competition among the Ion’s businesses. Competing teams include Transwestern, Microsoft, Rice Alliance, Rice Nexus, South Main Baptist, Per Scholas, Industrious and many others. Taste test crawfish while supplies last, and sip a complimentary drink from Second Draught.

This event is Thursday, May 7, from 4-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

May 12 – Why the Next Decade of Breakthrough Brain Tech Matters For You, and What to Do About It

Hear from Matias Serebrinsky, co-founder and general partner of San Francisco-based PsyMed Ventures, at this talk presented by EO Houston. Serebrinsky will discuss why founders are disproportionately affected by brain health issues and look at breakthrough brain and mental health tech.

This event is Tuesday, May 12, from 11:20 a.m.-1 p.m. at Tony's on Richmond Avenue. Register here.

May 18-19 — Geothermal Transition Summit North America

This two-day summit serves as the meeting point for the geothermal and oil and gas industries and will focus on geothermal energy, including scaling plants and navigating state regulations. The event promises 40 expert speakers, 15 exhibition spaces, and networking opportunities with 250 industry decision makers.

This event begins May 18 at Norris Conference Center. Register here.

May 19 – IOT Innovation Day

IoT Innovation Day will present a series of fast‑paced, 15‑minute tech talks focused on the future of connected devices. These sessions feature insights from founders, engineers, product innovators and industry leaders. Attendees are also invited to sign up to present their own tech talk showcasing their expertise, startup or solution.

This event is Tuesday, May 19, from 10 a.m.-6 p.m. Register here.

May 20-21 — ESF North America

ESF North America returns for its 5th edition, under the theme of “innovation and adaptation.” Attendees will explore how technology, innovation, and collaboration can drive a resilient, competitive refining and chemicals industry.

This event begins May 20 at The Westin Oaks Houston at the Galleria. Register here.

May 21 – AI + Energy Sector Pitch Day

Hear from startups powering the AI boom or using AI to support the energy transition at Greentown's latest installment of its Sector Pitch Day series. Brian Walker, program manager for emerging technologies in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office, will present the keynote address. Six Greentown startups will present pitches, as well as others from IMPEL, a DOE tech-to-market program, and more. Stick around for a networking happy hour.

This event is Thursday, May 21, from 1:30-6:30 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

May 28 – NASA Stories at the Ion: A Conversation with NASA’s Artemis II Orion Vehicle Manager Branelle Rodriguez

NASA’s Artemis II Orion Vehicle Manager Branelle Rodriguez will discuss what it took to ready the spacecraft for its mission and return to Earth at this special installment of NASA Stories. Rodriguez will share insights on Orion’s high-speed reentry, the views of the Moon and Earth witnessed by the crew, and what’s next for Orion on NASA’s upcoming Artemis missions in 2027 and 2028. Complimentary breakfast and networking take place before each talk.

This event Thursday, May 28, from 8:30-10 a.m. at the Ion. Register here.

May 28 – NASA Tech Talks: Texas-France Space Hub Business Accelerator Initiative

NASA Tech Talks is partnering with the Rice Space Institute (RSI) this month to host the second cohort of the Texas-France Space Hub in Houston. The hub aims to unite academic institutions and private enterprises to expand commercial space presence in both countries. Startups from the hub will present during the event, followed by drinks and networking at Second Draught.

This event Thursday, May 28, from 6-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

New TMC partnership aims to grow Houston’s biomanufacturing workforce

workforce partnership

Houston is a frontrunner in the race to introduce and manufacture advanced therapeutics to the medical world. A new agreement between the Texas Medical Center (TMC) and San Jacinto College (SJC) aims to speed more experts and their technologies towards the finish line.

Earlier this month, the world's largest medical center and the nation’s second-ranked community college announced their new partnership that will set students on a path towards careers not only in life sciences in general, but also in pharmaceutical and biomanufacturing specifically.

SJC already has programs in those majors—its first graduates are now joining the workforce—but working with TMC will help the college recruit new students, as well as aid in enrollment and participation. Thanks to this collaboration, SJC students will benefit from more experiential learning and be able to transition more smoothly into the next steps in their training.

“Houston is a premier global hub for life sciences and biotechnology, and the talent we need to advance therapeutic drugs, diagnostics, and cell and gene therapy is already here,” William McKeon, the TMC’s president and CEO, said in a news release. “With more companies choosing to establish their headquarters in Houston and the daily breakthroughs happening across the TMC campus, partnering with San Jacinto College is an important step toward sustaining that momentum and unlocking even greater innovation and growth through the promising talent that already exists within our state.”

The partnership is currently slated to last two years, but the institutions have the option to extend after that.

For students, their journey to becoming scientists will likely start with Biopath @ TMC, a program that introduces high school students to biomanufacturing careers and what it takes to pursue one. Since its inception two years ago, the program has worked with more than 2,000 students around Harris County.

“This partnership exemplifies San Jacinto College’s ability to design and deliver programs that align with current workforce demands while opening doors for untapped talent across the Houston region,” Brenda Hellyer, SJC chancellor, said in the release. “TMC is a key industry leader in our region, and San Jacinto College has a unique global curriculum that provides the foundation and skills required for students to succeed and graduates to thrive in meaningful careers that will contribute to the innovation and advancement of the life sciences.”

Thanks to this new collaboration, more of Houston’s biomanufacturing workforce will soon be locally grown.

Houston legacy planning platform secures $2.5M investment, adds to board

fresh funding

Houston-based Paige, a comprehensive life planning and succession software company, has secured a $2.5 million investment to expand the AI-driven tools on its platform.

The funding comes from Alabama-based 22nd State Banking Company, according to a news release. Paige says it will use the funding to expand automation, AI-driven onboarding and self-service tools, as well as add to its sales and customer success teams.

The company was originally founded by CEO Emily Cisek in 2020 as The Postage and rebranded to Paige last year. It helps users navigate and organize end-of-life planning with features like document storage and organization, password management, and funeral and last wishes planning.

“Too many families are left trying to piece together important information during some of the hardest moments of their lives,” Cisek said in the news release. “This investment allows us to accelerate the next phase of growth for Paige by improving the product and expanding support for our members, our financial institution partners and the communities they serve,”

In addition to the funding news, the company also announced that 22nd State Banking CEO and President Steve Smith will join Paige's board of directors.

“We believe banking should be grounded in relationships and built around the real needs of the people and communities we serve. Paige brings something deeply relevant to that mission," Smith added in the release. "It helps families prepare for the future in a practical and meaningful way, and it gives the banking community new pathways to support customers through important life transitions.”

Paige estimates that $124 trillion in assets will change hands through 2048. Yet about 56 percent of Americans do not have an estate plan.

Read more on the topic from Cisek in a recent op-ed here; or listen to InnovationMap's 2021 interview with her here.

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