Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Rice University launches new venture fund for university-affiliated startups

startup support

Rice University has launched its new One Giant Leap Ventures Fund I, which will invest in the university’s spinouts and alumni-founded startups.

The early-stage institutional venture fund will function with a hybrid structure that allows for participation from traditional equity investors and philanthropic investors. According to the university, the fund will invest up to $500,000 per Rice-affiliated company.

To be considered eligible for funds, companies must use intellectual property licensed by the university or be led or founded by alumni.

One Giant Leap will draw on support and mentorship from Rice’s pool of 60,000 alumni and aims to create educational opportunities within the investment phases, work with graduate and undergraduate venture students, explore the scaling and commercialization of their ideas, and help investigate all the facets of venture capital.

“Rice alumni bring an extraordinary depth of experience as entrepreneurs, investors and industry leaders, and One Giant Leap creates new ways to put that expertise to work for the next generation of Rice innovators,” Stephen Bayer, vice president for development and alumni relations, said in a news release. “It strengthens the connection between our alumni and the university while giving them meaningful opportunities to mentor, advise and support Rice-affiliated companies as they grow.”

The fund held its first close in August and made its first investment into Rice brain health spinout Motif Neurotech. Led by Rice faculty member Jacob Robinson, Motif is working to commercialize a minimally invasive neurostimulator that targets treatment-resistant depression. In May, the FDA approved the company to move forward with its first clinical trial.

“Research produces breakthrough technologies and our academic environment forms outstanding entrepreneurs,” said Adrian Trömel, the fund’s managing director, a Rice alumnus and a startup founder who also serves as Rice’s interim chief innovation officer.

One Giant Leap joins the already long list of Rice-led programs that foster innovation, including the Liu Idea Labs for Innovation and Entrepreneurship’s Innovation Fellows and Summer Venture Studio, the Rice Alliance’s Business Plan Competition, the Ion District, Woodside Rice Decarbonization Accelerator, Rice Nexus, the Biotech Launchpad and RBL Ventures and its upcoming 200,000 square-foot research lab the Arc.

“With One Giant Leap, I am excited that we are creating a unique structure that brings together traditional investment and philanthropic participation to invest in and help catalyze our startups, engage the deep expertise within the Rice ecosystem and transform those strengths into real-world impact,” Trömel added in the release.

New statewide plan aims to eliminate cervical cancer in Texas by 2032

fighting cancer

MD Anderson, on behalf of a coalition of health systems, has announced a new plan to eliminate cervical cancer in Texas.

The five-year Texas Lone Star Cervical Cancer Elimination Plan was launched during the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) 2026 Innovations Conference in Galveston this month.

The plan focuses on three major pillars with goals to be achieved by 2032:

  • HPV vaccination: Increase the percentage of Texas boys and girls up to date on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination by age 15 from 50.5 percent to 80 percent
  • Cervical cancer screening: Raise the share of Texas women up to date on cervical cancer screening from 64 percent to 80 percent
  • Timely follow-up, diagnosis and treatment: Ensure 80 percent of women receive diagnostic follow-up and treatment when needed through community outreach, patient navigation, provider training and survivorship support

Overall, the coalition wants to see fewer than four new cases of cervical cancer annually per 100,000 Texas women by 2032, according to a news release from MD Anderson. Currently, Texas has an incidence rate of 9.5 women per 100,000 diagnosed with cervical cancer, compared with 7.5 women per 100,000 nationally.

“Texas has the tools to prevent nearly every case of cervical cancer, but tools can save lives only when people can utilize them,” Dr. Ernest Hawk, vice president and division head of Cancer Prevention and Population Sciences at MD Anderson, said in the release. “The Lone Star Cervical Cancer Elimination Plan gives us a shared roadmap to vaccinate more of our children, screen more of our women and make sure every abnormal result leads to care. With innovations like HPV self-collection and the commitment of partners across the state, elimination is within reach.”

About 40 other hospitals, health care organizations and companies join MD Anderson in the coalition that launched the Lonestar Plan. Those based in Houston include Houston Methodist, Rice University, UTHealth Houston, Texas Children's Hospital, Houston Health Department and others.

The CPRIT also announced its Texans Conquer Cancer Awards and its CPRIT Champion awards during the Innovations Conference this week. Several are based in Houston, including:

  • Zhiqiang An, co-founder of CrossBridge Bio, Director of the Texas Therapeutics Institute, and Vice President of Drug Discovery at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston
  • Dr. Abbey Berenson, Director of the UTMB Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Women's Health Care
  • Dr. Michael Taylor, Chair of Pediatric Neuro-Oncology at Texas Children's Cancer and Hematology Center and Director of Texas Children's Pediatric Brain Tumor Research Program

To date, the CPRIT has awarded more than $4.2 billion in grants to fight cancer in the state. Over the summer, it awarded four $2 million grants to institutions in Houston and Bryan for the creation or expansion of “core” cancer research facilities.

Texas Medical Center Innovation recently announced that its $2 million grant would renew its Accelerator for Cancer Therapeutics for five years. Read more from TMCi about the renewal here.

Announcing the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards finalists

Inspirational Innovators

InnovationMap is proud to reveal the finalists for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards.

The sixth annual Houston Innovation Awards program returns in an all-digital format this fall to honor the best of Houston's innovation ecosystem, including startups, entrepreneurs, mentors, and more.

Finalists were determined by our esteemed panel of judges, comprised of past award winners and InnovationMap editorial leadership.

The panel reviewed applications across 10 prestigious categories to determine our finalists. They will select the winner for each category, except for Startup of the Year, which will be chosen by the public via online voting launching later this month.

We will announce the honoree of our annual Trailblazer Award in the coming weeks, then stay tuned as we unveil all of this year's winners on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Get to know our finalists in more detail through editorial spotlights leading up to the winner announcement. Without further ado, here are the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards finalists:

Minority-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by BIPOC or LGBTQ+ representation:

  • AI Made Fun
  • Deep Anchor Solutions
  • HEXAspec
  • Prana Surgical
  • Torres Orbital Mining Inc.

Female-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by a woman:

  • Adair
  • ARIX Technologies
  • Bairitone Health
  • FlowCellutions
  • ParaDocs Health

Energy Transition Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing a solution within renewables, climatetech, clean energy, alternative materials, circular economy and beyond:

  • Capwell Services
  • FlowCellutions
  • Hertha Metals
  • Mars Materials
  • Solidec

Health Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup within the health and medical technology sectors:

  • Bairitone Health
  • InformAI Inc.
  • Prana Surgical
  • Skybound MedTech

Deep Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing technology solutions based on substantial scientific or engineering challenges, including those in the AI, robotics and space sectors:

  • Casimir
  • Focis AI
  • Machine Saver Inc.
  • Square Robot
  • Venus Aerospace

Startup of the Year (People's Choice)

Honoring a startup celebrating a recent milestone or success. The winner will be selected by the community via an online voting experience:

  • Fluxworks
  • IronLattice
  • Lumino
  • Progress Report
  • Rosarium Health
  • Thread
  • TokenRoster

Scaleup of the Year

Honoring an innovative later-stage startup that's recently reached a significant milestone in company growth:

  • Erock
  • Hertha Metals
  • Venus Aerospace

Incubator/Accelerator of the Year

Honoring a local incubator or accelerator that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups:

  • Activate
  • Impact Hub Houston
  • MarMo Innovation

Mentor of the Year

Honoring an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs:

  • Al Danto, Rice University
  • Eric Rubenstein, New Climate Ventures
  • Jeremy Pitts, Activate
  • Joe Alapat, Liongard
  • Kyle Judah, Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship
  • Rachel Bickham, Bickham Services Unlimited LLC

Trailblazer Recipient

  • To be announced
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