Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Meet 6 mentors who are helping the Houston startup scene flourish

meet the finalists

Few founders launch successful startups alone — experienced and insightful mentors often play an integral role in helping the business and its founders thrive.

The Houston startup community is home to many mentors who are willing to lend an ear and share advice to help entrepreneurs meet their goals.

The Mentor of the Year category in our 2025 Houston Innovation Awards will honor an individual like this, who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs. The award is presented by Houston City College Northwest.

Below, meet the six finalists for the 2025 award. They support promising startups in the medical tech, digital health, clean energy and hardware sectors.

Then, join us at the Houston Innovation Awards this Thursday, Nov. 13 at Greentown Labs, when the winner will be unveiled. The event is just days away, so secure your seats now.

Anil Shetty, InformAI

Anil Shetty serves as president and chief medical officer for biotech company Ferronova and chief innovation officer for InformAI. He's mentored numerous medical device and digital health companies at seed or Series A, including Pathex, Neurostasis, Vivifi Medical and many others. He mentors through organizations like Capital Factory, TMC Biodesign, UT Venture Mentoring, UTMB Innovation and Rice's Global Medical Innovation program.

"Being a mentor means empowering early-stage innovators to shape, test, and refine their ideas with clarity and purpose," Shetty says. "I’m driven by the opportunity to help them think strategically and pivot early before resources are wasted. At this critical stage, most founders lack the financial means to bring on seasoned experts and often haven’t yet gained real-world exposure. Mentorship allows me to fill that gap, offering guidance that accelerates their learning curve and increases the chances of meaningful, sustainable impact."

Jason Ethier, EnergyTech Nexus

Jason Ethier is the founding partner of EnergyTech Nexus, through which he has mentored numerous startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Geokiln, Energy AI Solutions, Capwell Services and Corrolytics. He founded Dynamo Micropower in 2011 and served as its president and CEO. He later co-founded Greentown Labs in Massachusetts and helped bring the accelerator to Houston.

"Being a mentor means using my experience to help founders see a clearer path to success. I’ve spent years navigating the ups and downs of building companies, struggling with cash flow, and making all the mistakes; mentoring gives me the chance to share those lessons and show entrepreneurs the shortcuts I wish I’d known earlier," Ethier says. "At Energytech Nexus, that role goes beyond just helping individual founders — it’s about creating a flywheel effect for Houston’s entire innovation ecosystem."

Jeremy Pitts, Activate Houston

Jeremy Pitts serves as managing director of Activate Houston, which launched in Houston last year. He was one of the founders of Greentown Labs in the Boston area and served in a leadership role for the organization between 2011 and 2015. Through Activate, he has mentored numerous impactful startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Coflux Purification, Bairitone Health, Newfound Materials, Deep Anchor Solutions and others.

"Being a mentor to me is very much about supporting the person in whatever they need. Oftentimes that means supporting the business—providing guidance and advice, feedback, introductions, etc," But just as important is recognizing the person and helping them with whatever challenges they are going through ... Sometimes they need a hype man to tell them how awesome they are and that they can go do whatever hard thing they need to do. Sometimes they just need an empathetic listener who can relate to how hard these things are. Being there for the person and supporting them on their journey is key to my mentorship style."

Joe Alapat, Liongard

Joe Alapat founded and serves as chief strategy officer at Houston software company Liongard and chief information officer at Empact IT, which he also owns. He mentors through Founder Fridays Houston Group, Software Day by Mercury Fund, SUPERGirls SHINE Foundation, Cup of Joey and at the Ion. He's worked with founders of FlowCare, STEAM OnDemand, Lokum and many other early stage startups.

"Being a mentor to me means unleashing an individual’s 10x—their purpose, their ikigai (a Japanese concept that speaks to a person’s reason for being)," Alapat says. "Mentoring founders in the Houston community of early stage, high-growth startups is an honor for me. I get to live vicariously through a founder’s vision of the future. Once they show me that compelling vision, I’m drawn to bring the future forward with them so the vision becomes reality with a sense of urgency."

Neal Dikeman, Energy Transition Ventures

Neal Dikeman serves as partner at early stage venture fund Energy Transition Ventures, executive in residence at Greentown Labs, and offices in and supports Rice Nexus at the Ion. He mentors startups, like Geokiln, personally. He also mentored Helix Earth through Greentown Labs. The company went on to win in the Smart Cities, Transportation & Sustainability contest at SXSW earlier this year. Dikeman has helped launch several successful startups himself, most recently serving on the board of directors for Resilient Power Systems, which was acquired by Eaton Corp for $150 million.

"Founders have to find their own path, and most founders need a safe space where they can discuss hard truths outside of being 'on' in sales mode with their team or board or investors, to let them be able to work on their business, not just in it," Dikeman says.

Nisha Desai, Intention

Nisha Desai serves as CEO of investment firm Intention and mentors through Greentown Labs, TEX-E, Open Minds, the Rice Alliance Clean Energy Accelerator, Avatar Innovations and The Greenhouse. She currently works with founders from Solidec, Deep Anchor Solutions, CLS Wind and several other local startups, several of which have been nominated for Innovation Awards this year. She's served a board member for Greentown Labs since 2021.

"When I first started mentoring, I viewed my role as someone who was supposed to prevent the founder from making bad decisions. Now, I see my role as a mentor as enabling the founder to develop their own decision-making capability," Desai says. "Sometimes that means giving them the space to make decisions that might be good, that might be bad, but that they can be accountable for. At the end of the day, being a mentor is like being granted a place on the founder's leadership development journey, and it's a privilege I'm grateful for."

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The Houston Innovation Awards program is sponsored by Houston City College Northwest, Houston Powder Coaters, FLIGHT by Yuengling, and more to be announced soon. For sponsorship opportunities, please contact sales@innovationmap.com.

Rice, Houston Methodist developing soft 'sleep cap' for brain health research

Researchers and scientists at Rice University and Houston Methodist are developing a “sleep cap” that aims to protect the brain against dementia and other similar diseases by measuring and improving deep sleep.

The project is a collaboration between Rice University engineering professors Daniel Preston, Vanessa Sanchez and Behnaam Aazhang; and Houston Methodist neurologist Dr. Timea Hodics and Dr. Gavin Britz, director of the Houston Methodist Neurological Institute and chairman of the Department of Neurosurgery.

According to Rice, deep sleep is essential for clearing waste products from the brain and nightly “cleaning cycles” help remove toxic proteins. These toxic proteins, like amyloids, can accumulate during the day and are linked to Alzheimer’s disease and other neurological issues.

Aazhang, director of the Rice Neuroengineering Initiative, and his team are building a system that not only tracks the brain’s clearing process but can also stimulate it, improving natural mechanisms that protect against neurodegeneration.

Earlier proof-of-concept versions of the caps successfully demonstrated the promise of this approach; however, they were rigid and uncomfortable for sleep.

Preston and Sanchez will work to transform the design of the cap into a soft, lightweight, textile-based version to make sleep easier, while also allowing the caps to be customizable and tailored for each patient.

“One of the areas of expertise we have here at Rice is designing wearable devices from soft and flexible materials,” Preston, an assistant professor of mechanical engineering, said in a news release. “We’ve already shown this concept works in rigid device prototypes. Now we’re building a soft, breathable cap that people can comfortably wear while they sleep.”

Additionally, the research team is pursuing ways to adapt their technology to measure neuroinflammation and stimulate the brain’s natural plasticity. Neuroinflammation, or swelling in the brain, can be caused by injury, stroke, disease or lifestyle factors and is increasingly recognized as a driver of neurodegeneration, according to Rice.

“Our brain has an incredible ability to rewire itself,” Aazhang added in the release. “If we can harness that through technology, we can open new doors for treating not just dementia but also traumatic brain injury, stroke, Parkinson’s disease and more.”

The project represents Rice’s broader commitment to brain health research and its support for the Dementia Prevention Research Institute of Texas (DPRIT), which passed voter approval last week. The university also recently launched its Rice Brain Institute.

As part of the project, Houston Methodist will provide access to clinicians and patients for early trials, which include studies on patients who have suffered traumatic brain injury and stroke.

“We have entered an era in neuroscience that will result in transformational cures in diseases of the brain and spinal cord,” Britz said in the release. “DPRIT could make Texas the hub of these discoveries.”

Autonomous truck company with Houston routes goes public

on a roll

Kodiak Robotics, a provider of AI-powered autonomous vehicle technology, has gone public through a SPAC merger and has rebranded as Kodiak AI. The company operates trucking routes to and from Houston, which has served as a launchpad for the business.

Privately held Kodiak, founded in 2018, merged with a special purpose acquisition company — publicly held Ares Acquisition Corp. II — to form Kodiak AI, whose stock now trades on the Nasdaq market.

In September, Mountain View, California-based Kodiak and New York City-based Ares disclosed a $145 million PIPE (private investment in public equity) investment from institutional investors to support the business combo. Since announcing the SPAC deal, more than $220 million has been raised for the new Kodiak.

“We believe these additional investments underscore our investors’ confidence in the value proposition of Kodiak’s safe and commercially deployed autonomous technology,” Don Burnette, founder and CEO of Kodiak, said in a news release.

“We look forward to leading the advancement of the commercial trucking and public sector industries,” he added, “and delivering on the exciting value creation opportunities ahead to the benefit of customers and shareholders.”

Last December, Kodiak debuted a facility near George Bush Intercontinental/Houston Airport for loading and loading driverless trucks. Transportation and logistics company Ryder operates the “truckport” for Ryder.

The facility serves freight routes to and from Houston, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Kodiak’s trucks currently operate with or without drivers. Kodiak’s inaugural route launched in 2024 between Houston and Dallas.

One of the companies using Kodiak’s technology is Austin-based Atlas Energy Solutions, which owns and operates four driverless trucks equipped with Kodiak’s driver-as-a-service technology. The trucks pick up fracking sand from Atlas’ Dune Express, a 42-mile conveyor system that carries sand from Atlas’ mine to sites near customers’ oil wells in the Permian Basin.

Altogether, Atlas has ordered 100 trucks that will run on Kodiak’s autonomous technology in an effort to automate Atlas’ supply chain.

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