Houston could be 2nd biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

WELCOME, NEWSTONIANS

Everyone wants to live here. Photo by Kevin Hernandez on Unsplash

Start spreading the news: Houston will eclipse New York City as the 2nd biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says Houston's population could swell to 31.38 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be Dallas-Fort Worth (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Dallas-Fort Worth's population is estimated to grow to 33.91 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land is currently the No. 5 biggest metro in the country with a population of more than 7.2 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the second highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (124,281 residents), following Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (170,396 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out. While heat will be a major issue, there are much more dangerous possibilities.

"The bigger threat may be more destructive hurricanes from off the Gulf of Mexico," the report's author says. "Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and major storms like that could become more common. A historic flood also nailed the city in 2019. Planning for a future of these climate-induced threats will be critical for Houston."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for Houston, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

  • No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
  • No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
  • No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
  • No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
  • No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
  • No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
  • No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
  • No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
  • No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
  • No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston added more than a million people in the last decade. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Bayou City comes close to topping Census Bureau's list for greatest population boom in the country

so popular

The Lone Star State is proving quite popular, at least according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As reported by numbers released on March 26, Texas is home to cities with the fastest-growing large metro area in the nation and the biggest numeric gain of residents.

Those would be Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, respectively. And we'll delve into their numbers in a minute, because first it's time to talk about Houston.

H-Town actually nipped at DFW's heels in terms of the numeric population gain from 2010 to 2019. In that time, the Houston area picked up 1,145,654 residents, the second highest total among U.S. metros. That's around the number of people who live in the Buffalo, New York, metro area.

Houston stills holds the No. 5 position on the list of the largest U.S. metro areas. The bureau put its 2019 population at 7,066,141, up 19.4 percent from 2010.

Austin, meanwhile, saw its population shoot up 29.8 percent between 2010 and 2019, landing at 2,227,083 as of July 1, 2019. Put another way, the Austin area added 510,760 residents during the one-decade span.

From 2018 to 2019 alone, the Austin area's population rose 2.8 percent, the Census Bureau says. Numerically, the one-year increase was 61,586 (taking into account births, deaths, new arrivals to the area, and people moving away). That works out to 169 people per day.

Helping drive the Austin area's population spike from 2010 to 2019 were two of the country's fastest-growing counties. Hays County ranked as the second-fastest growing county in the U.S. (46.5 percent) in the past decade, the Census Bureau says, with Williamson County at No. 9 (39.8 percent).

In terms of numeric growth, Travis County ranked 10th in the country from 2010 to 2019 with the addition of 249,510 residents, according to the Census Bureau.

While Austin was the fastest-growing major metro area from 2010 to 2019, Dallas-Fort Worth topped the Census Bureau list for the biggest numeric gain. During that period, DFW welcomed 1,206,599 residents. To put that into perspective, that's about the same number of people who live in the entire Salt Lake City metro area.

On July 1, 2019, DFW's population stood at 7,573,136, up 19 percent from 2010. It remains the country's fourth largest metro, behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Although the San Antonio metro area didn't make the top 10 for percentage or numeric growth from 2010 to 2019, two of the region's counties appeared among the 10 fastest-growing counties:

  • Ranked at No. 4, Comal County's population jumped 43.9 percent.
  • Ranked at No. 5, Kendall County's population rose 42.1 percent.

In the previous decade, the San Antonio area's population climbed 19.1 percent, winding up at 2,550,960 in 2019, the Census Bureau says. Over the 10-year period, the region added 408,440 residents.

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For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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Where are all those new Newstonians coming from? Texas. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Houston named on a new list of most popular places to move to in the U.S.

Still booming

A new study shows Texas' major metros are some of the hottest places to move to in the U.S. — and Houston tops them all.

Real estate site CommercialCafe recently looked at "metro-to-metro" migration to see which areas are "winning" in terms of new residents, and a trio of Lone Star cities appears in the top five.

With an average net gain of 32,821 residents, Houston ranks third overall. Dallas-Fort Worth, with an average net gain of 30,639, follows at fourth. And Austin, with an average net gain of 26,733 people, is fifth. (The migration data was based on U.S. Census yearly average estimates for 2013-2017.)

"Among the three Texas metros on our list, Houston saw the largest population increase through metro-to-metro migration," says the report.

So where are these new residents coming from? Elsewhere in Texas. Houston gained the most new residents from DFW (16,306), followed by Austin (9,304) and San Antonio (7,443).

Those are also the most popular locations for Houston residents to move to. On average, more than 15,000 Houston residents relocated to DFW, followed closely by Austin (14,082) and San Antonio (8,692).

Houston's growth "is visible in Space City's many business districts, which added almost 18 million square feet of office space between 2013 and 2017, according to Yardi Matrix data," says the report. "This amount surpasses that of any other metro in the top 10. The Houston housing market is also on the upswing. The number of housing units here increased by an average of 2.1 percent — or 52,841 units — each year."

Outside of Texas, the report shows that folks are flocking to Phoenix (No. 1) and California's Inland Empire (No. 2).

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The Houston metro area's population grew by more than 90,000 people between 2017 and 2018, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Photo by Zview/Getty Images

Houston's big population boom continues with this many new residents each day

New to HOU

The meteoric rise of the Houston metro area's population continues skyward. From 2017 to 2018, the region added about 251 residents per day, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Put another way, the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land region gained 91,689 residents in just one year, the Census Bureau says. That's as if the region absorbed a city around the size of, well, Sugar Land, every 365 days.

All in all, the Houston area ranked third in numeric population growth from 2017 to 2018 among U.S. metro areas with at least 1 million residents, the bureau's estimates show. On July 1, 2017, the bureau counted an estimated 6,905,695 residents in the Houston area. On the same date on July 1, 2018, the area's population stood at 6,997,384. The bureau's estimates take into account people moving into and out of the Houston area, as well as births and deaths.

If you think that growth rate is impressive, consider the Houston area's leap in population from 2010 to 2018.

For that period, Houston ranked second among all U.S. metro areas for population growth on a numeric basis. The Census Bureau says the region's headcount shot up about 18.2 percent from 2010 to 2018, going from 5,920,487 to 6,997,384.

Fort Bend has done its part to feed the Houston area's growth. Among U.S. counties, Fort Bend County ranked 10th for population growth on a percentage basis from 2017 to 2018. The headcount spiked 34.7 percent, from 584,690 to 787,858.

Elsewhere in Texas:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth led U.S. metro areas for numeric growth in population from 2017 to 2018, adding 131,767 residents. In just one year, the region's population rocketed from 7,407,944 to 7,539,711 (1.8 percent).
  • The Austin metro area's population grew 2.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,115,230 to 2,168,316, an added 53,086 residents.
  • The population of the San Antonio metro area grew 1.8 percent from 2017 to 2018, going from 2,474,274 to 2,518,036. In that one-year span, the area added 43,762 residents.
  • For 2017 to 2018, Comal County ranked sixth among U.S. counties for percentage growth in population. The number of residents jumped 36.8 percent, from 108,485 to 148,373.
  • In seventh place for percentage population growth among U.S. counties from 2017 to 2018 was Kendall County. The number of residents soared 36.6 percent, from 33,411 to 45,641.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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New manufacturing facility breaks ground at NASA’s Johnson Space Center

making space

HITT Contracting has broken ground on NASA’s Applied Spaceflight Fabrication Facility (ASFF) at Johnson Space Center, the Washington, D.C.-based construction firm announced late last month.

The project, known as Building 70, will house a high-bay machine shop to support component production for future NASA space missions, according to HITT. The 37,625-square-foot building is the first part of a larger goal to create an engineering complex that unites assembly space, lab capabilities and manufacturing at JSC. It will consolidate machining equipment and operations that are currently spread across multiple campus buildings into one location.

The project broke ground in October at JSC’s Historic District. The Houston Business Journal reports construction is expected to wrap in August of 2028.

“This project will modernize facilities that support America’s space missions,” PJ Ross, chief financial officer at HITT, said in a LinkedIn post. “Proud of our team and partners as we begin construction that will advance aerospace testing and innovation.”

HITT Contracting is one of seven companies awarded infrastructure contracts by NASA earlier this year for work at JSC. According to NASA, the construction contracts “[support] up to $300 million in upgrades to mission‑support facilities, utilities, and equipment across the NASA Johnson campus.”

Construction Drive reports that HITT will also renovate Building 13 South on the JSC campus as part of the $300 million initiative.

“Building for precision manufacturing starts with understanding how the space needs to perform,” Todd Hudson, vice president at HITT Contracting, added in the release. “Our team brings the technical expertise and collaborative approach to deliver a facility that meets the Johnson Space Center’s needs today and supports the next generation of spaceflight innovation. We’re proud to continue our partnership with NASA.”

NASA also recently announced awards as part of its expanded Moon Base exploration, science and infrastructure capabilities. Houston-based Intuitive Machines and seven other spacetech companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Firefly Aerospace, were selected to receive funding.

The awards are part of the next phase of NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative, which will grant the companies a combined total of up to $10 billion over 10 years.

Intuitive Machines and Webster-based MEI Technologies were also awarded contracts this past summer from NASA to develop robots for exploring the surface of Mars. Read more here.

Meet 6 mentors guiding Houston’s next generation of startup founders

meet the finalists

Houston’s thriving startup ecosystem is supported by a network of experienced leaders who work behind the scenes, investing their time and knowledge to help the next generation of entrepreneurs succeed.

As part of the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, the Mentor of the Year category will honor an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs. They support promising startups in the medical tech, digital health, clean energy, hardware sectors and more.

Read more about these businesses, their founders and their breakthrough technologies below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Al Danto, Rice University

Al Danto is a senior lecturer in entrepreneurship at Rice University. He mentors undergraduate and graduate students at Rice and through the university's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lillie). He's also involved in the Houston Entrepreneurs Organization and Rice Veterans' Business Battle.

"[Mentoring] is very rewarding and fulfilling," Danto says. "[It] helps to me to pay back full circle over the incredible mentors I have had."

Eric Rubenstein, New Climate Ventures

Eric Rubenstein is managing partner at New Climate Ventures. He mentors startups through the clean energy-focused early-stage VC firm and also through the Breakthrough Energy Fellowship, Activate, Greentown Labs and Yale Ventures. Rubenstein has worked with numerous startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Rheom Materials, Bairitone Health, Pattern Materials and many others.

"Being a mentor is an important part of an innovation ecosystem," Rubenstein says. "Seeing founders succeed is rewarding, particularly if what they are building will meaningfully contribute to society. It is a way to give back that also builds community, as mentorship often involves introducing founders to other mentors, to potential investors and to potential customers. Just like the adage 'it takes a village' is used in reference to raising a child, the same adage applies to building a startup. That’s why we say 'let’s build.' Let’s build is inclusive because we do it together, as a community, even if the founders need to execute on a daily basis to make their vision a reality."

Jeremy Pitts, Activate

Jeremy Pitts serves as managing director of Activate Houston, which launched in Houston in 2024. He was one of the founders of Greentown Labs in the Boston area and served in a leadership role for the organization between 2011 and 2015. Through Activate, he has mentored numerous impactful startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Coflux Purification, Bairitone Health, Newfound Materials, Deep Anchor Solutions and others.

"Mentorship to me is all about selflessly supporting a person," Pitts says. "The person comes first--if you're not supporting the person, then their business needs don't matter. I'm there not to answer questions for people, but to help them gain the confidence and the capability to solve problems on their own. I am successful when my mentees are successful and happy, regardless of what their personal definition of success might look like."

Joe Alapat, Liongard

Joe Alapat founded and serves as chief strategy officer at Houston software company Liongard. He founded Startup Circle Houston and co-hosts Cybersecurity Circle, which both meet regularly at The Ion. He participates in Mercury Fund Day and has also mentored through Impact Hub Houston. He's worked with founders of FlowCare, Unytag, STEAM OnDemand, Lokum and many other early-stage startups.

"I compare being a mentor for startup founders to the Montessori method. ... Mentoring should not involve telling a founder what to do," Alapat says. "I see it as a founder whisperer approach that seeks to challenge the founder to think through their journey through different lenses and go on a journey of self-discovery while discovering the true market pain they are seeking to solve. The cherry on top is that the mentor gains as much as the mentee, so learning is happening for both. Ultimately, the meter of achievement with mentoring is seeing visible progress with the maturity of the founder and the degree of traction for their startup."

Kyle Judah, Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Kyle Judah is the executive director of Lilie, where he mentors pre-seed student startups. He also mentors through organizations like TEX-E, Greentown Labs, Activate and previously with MassChallenge. Some of the startups he's mentored include Helix Earth Technologies, Tierra Climate, Solidec, HexaSpec, SteerBio and many others.

"[Being a mentor] means helping to ensure that the most people possible have the best shot possible at making their company a successful reality," Judah says. "It means, at its root, opening the aperture for what is possible for people, by believing in them before anyone else even understands what their ambitions are. Because belief is the most infectious thing in the world. And before digging into the work in the trenches, most times founders need to kickstart their journey by having someone from the outside believe in them, when there's no real evidence to support that belief. So I guess, mentorship is a pure form of entrepreneurial faith."

Rachel Bickham, Bickham Services Unlimited LLC

Rachel Bickham is CEO of Bickham Services Unlimited, through which she mentors founders across a range of business stages and industries. She founded the organization in 2017. Bickham also mentors through The Affirmed Entrepreneur, a mentorship platform that she also launched. In 2024, she also began mentoring through the Goldman Sachs One Million Black Women: Black in Business program. Some of the startups she has worked with included Elaine Transportation, Nakira's World and NP Skills Made Easy, among others.

"Being a mentor means helping someone see what is possible while being honest about what it will take to get there," Bickham says. "It is not about giving generic advice or telling entrepreneurs what they want to hear. Sometimes mentorship means offering encouragement, and sometimes it means asking difficult questions that help someone avoid an expensive mistake. In both situations, my responsibility is to listen, share what I have learned, and help the entrepreneur make an informed decision. ... Being a mentor also means opening doors when I can—making introductions, inviting entrepreneurs into rooms they may not have entered on their own, and helping them build relationships that can change the direction of their businesses. It also means holding them accountable for what they said they wanted to accomplish. I do not measure successful mentorship by how often someone returns to me for an answer. I measure it by whether they become more confident, more strategic, and better equipped to make decisions on their own."

3 Houston incubators and accelerators fueling the growth of local startups

Meet the finalists

It takes a village to launch a business. That's where Houston's network of incubators and accelerators can step in, providing the resources, mentorship and community needed to push a fledgling company forward.

As part of our 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, the Incubator/Accelerator of the Year category honors a local organization that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups.

Three incubators and accelerators have been named finalists for the 2026 award. They support startups ranging from hard-tech companies to food and youth concepts.

Read more about these organizations below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Activate

Hard tech incubator Activate supports scientists in "the outset of their entrepreneurial journey." The Houston hub was introduced in 2024, and joins others in Boston, New York, and Berkley, California—where Activate is headquartered. It named its third Houston cohort this summer.

The two-year program graduated its first class of Houston fellows in 2026 and saw its first alumni IPO from Houston-based Fervo Energy, which previously participated in a Berkley cohort. Nationally, it has supported 346 fellows and 276 companies since 2015. Those companies have raised more than $6 billion in follow-on funding, according to Activate. In Houston, it has supported Houston startups like Solidec, FlowCellutions and Orbital Arc. Activate Houston is led by managing director Jeremy Pitts, who co-founded Greentown Labs in Boston. It is based out of the Ion.

Impact Hub Houston

Impact Hub Houston supports early-stage ventures at various stages of development through innovative programs that address pressing societal issues. The nonprofit organization supports social impact startups through mentorship, connections and training opportunities.

There are more than 110 Impact Hubs globally with members spanning 72 countries. Launched in 2018, Impact Hub Houston says its membership tripled by the beginning of 2026. This year brought major milestones for the community, including the launch of its Ideas to Impact Accelerator, which supported 11 founders across the health, education, food systems, civic technology and workforce development sectors. It also received funding from more than 20 international Impact Hubs to develop SYNC, a collaboration platform that 25 Impact Hubs across five continents have committed to pilot. The organization has worked with local startups including Myoviva Health, The Change Lab and INNERVERSE Inc.

MarMo Innovation

Galveston-based business incubator MarMo Innovation is focused on removing barriers to entrepreneurship. It aims to provide affordable space, education, mentorship, market access, connections and real-world opportunities that help entrepreneurs move from idea to launch to sustainable growth. The "industry-agnostic" incubator was founded in 2022 and is led by Executive Director Erica Delgadillo.

This year, the organization moved from primarily serving as a coworking and community space into a more comprehensive entrepreneurial incubator by expanding its MarMo Market, MarMo Market Jr. and Lunch LineUp programs. A major focus for MarMo is food entrepreneurship. It is developing an Incubator Kitchen, which MarMo says will support programs like its Cottage to Commercial Bootcamp and Food Biz 101. The organization also expanded its board this year and says it is diversifying its revenue through memberships, events, markets, equipment and space rentals, sponsorships, grants and new entrepreneurial programming.

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