Texas still ranks as No. 1 in U.S. for inbound moves, but growth dips

by the numbers

Texas added 76,000 out-of-state residents in 2024, according to a new report. Photo via Unsplash

Texas continues to be the country’s No. 1 magnet for newcomers from other states, giving a boost to the state’s economy. However, Texas’ appeal weakened in 2024 compared with the previous year, due in large part to spiking home prices.

An analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by self-storage platform StorageCafe shows Texas saw net interstate migration of 76,000 people in 2024. Texas’ net interstate migration dropped nearly 50 percent from 2023, according to the analysis. Net migration refers to the number of incoming residents minus the number of outgoing residents.

California remained the top source of newcomers for Texas, sending nearly 77,000 residents to the Lone Star State in 2024, the analysis says. Florida ranked second, followed by New York, Colorado and Illinois.

“These trends reveal Texas’ continued pull from both high-cost coastal markets and other large Sun Belt states, resulting in a mix of affordability-driven and job-driven relocation,” StorageCafe says.

Putting a damper on the influx of new residents: a roughly 124 percent surge in Texas home prices over the past decade, according to StorageCafe.

“While the state remains significantly more affordable than California, its top feeder state, the once-wide pricing gap has narrowed,” says StorageCafe. “For many movers, Texas is still a relative bargain, but no longer an undisputed one.”

Nonetheless, Texas keeps attracting young, highly educated people, which bodes well for the state’s long-term economic outlook, StorageCafe says. More than half of new arrivals to Texas in 2024 held at least a bachelor’s degree, and the age of newcomers averaged 32.

Where are most of these young, highly educated newcomers settling?

Lloyd Potter, former Texas state demographer, tells StorageCafe that population growth in Texas is happening most rapidly in suburban “ring counties” at the expense of slowing growth in urban cores. Ring counties are on the outskirts of major metro areas.

“Many people are moving from urban cores to suburban rings seeking lower costs, newer housing, better schools, and more space,” Potter says. “Typically, a move to a suburban county will be within commuting or hybrid‑commuting distance of major metro economies.”

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Based on recent population growth figures, you should probably get ready for more traffic. Photo courtesy of TxDOT

Texas population is barreling toward eye-popping milestone in 2022

growth spurt

Texas is edging closer to a milestone — a population of 30 million.

Estimates released December 21 by the U.S. Census Bureau show the population of Texas grew 1.1 percent between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021. During that period, the state added 310,288 residents, going from 29,217,653 to 29,527,941. The tally takes into account births, deaths, people moving to Texas, and people moving out of Texas.

Texas ranked first among the states for the number of residents added from 2020 to 2021, which worked out to 850 new residents per day, and seventh for percentage growth. At 2.9 percent, Idaho ranked first for percentage growth.

If Texas maintains a year-to-year growth rate of at least 1.1 percent, the state might break the 30 million mark sometime in 2022. Driving the state’s continued population explosion are people of color, who’ve made up 91 percent of new Texas residents in the 21st century, according to The Texas Tribune.

Lloyd Potter, the state demographer, says it’s conceivable that Texas could be home to 30 million residents in 2022.

“However, our rate of growth has slowed noticeably between 2020 and 2021, with lower fertility, higher mortality, and less international migration. If we add the same number of people estimated to have been added between 2020 and 2021, then it looks like we’ll come up a bit short of 30 million in 2022,” Potter says.

Throughout the country, the COVID-19 pandemic helped drag down population growth from July 2020 to July 2021. The U.S. population rose just 0.1 percent during that period — the smallest one-year increase since the nation was founded.

“Population growth has been slowing for years because of lower birth rates and decreasing net international migration, all while mortality rates are rising due to the aging of the nation’s population,” Kristie Wilder, a demographer at the Census Bureau, says in a news release. “Now, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this combination has resulted in a historically slow pace of growth.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Nearly 4 million people became Texans in the past decade. Courtesy photo

Texas explodes with 16 percent surge in population, new census data shows

Growth spurt

Texas' population swelled so much from 2010 to 2020 that it essentially swallowed a state the size of Oklahoma.

Figures released April 26 by the U.S. Census Bureau show Texas gained 3,999,944 residents from April 2010 to April 2020. By comparison, the entire population of Oklahoma totaled 3,959,353 in April 2020. Those nearly 4 million new residents brought Texas' population to 29,145,505 as of April 2020.

Buoyed by a spike in the Hispanic population and an influx of out-of-state and international arrivals, Texas led the nation for the sheer number of residents added from the every-10-years headcount in 2010 to the headcount in 2020. Florida ranked second in that category (2,736,877), and California ranked third (2,284,267).

"The growth for Texas was a little bit slower than expected, which may be a function of lower fertility rates post-Great Recession and slower international migration," Lloyd Potter, the Texas state demographer, tells CultureMap.

California still remains the biggest state as measured by population (39,538,223). However, the Quartz news website reported in 2019 that Texas' population could surpass California's by 2045.

Meanwhile, Texas holds the No. 3 position for percentage population growth from 2010 to 2020, according to Census Bureau data. The state's population shot up by 15.9 percent during that period, behind only Utah (18.4 percent) and Idaho (17.3 percent). By contrast, California saw its population climb by just 6.1 percent from 2010 to 2020.

As a result of population shifts across the country, Texas will pick up two seats in the U.S. House, bringing its total to 38, the Census Bureau says. Five states will add one seat each: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. Seven states will lose one seat each: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Based on earlier population estimates, experts had expected Texas to tack on three congressional seats following the 2020 Census. But Potter says Texas' growth relative to population changes in other states pared the Lone Star State's final tally to two more seats.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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New UH survey reveals concerns over AI data center growth in Houston

data findings

A new report out of the University of Houston shows that area residents remain wary of the long-term effects of operating data centers.

The recent survey from the University of Houston’s latest SPACE City Panel, conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows that while 85 percent of Houston-area residents use AI, nearly 63 percent oppose the construction of AI data centers within 1 mile of their homes.

Respondents’ concerns centered around data centers’ high energy demand and the area’s power grid reliability. According to the survey, 32 percent of residents who oppose local data center projects would be more likely to support the centers if they relied on renewable energy over fossil fuels.

“Respondents understand that AI can bring economic and educational benefits, but they are also concerned about the physical infrastructure needed to fuel AI, especially data centers,” Soran Mohtadi, post-doctoral fellow at the Hobby School and a researcher on the report, said in a news release. “This physical infrastructure demands more electricity and water, leading to environmental impacts.”

Experts estimate that 6.5 gigawatts of data center capacity will be added to the Texas grid by 2030. And Houston’s data center capacity is predicted to more than double by 2028.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas also projects electricity demand could reach 218 gigawatts by 2031, which would be more than double the record peak set in August 2023. Data centers are expected to account for 86 gigawatts of that new demand.

Survey respondents also said they are concerned about the state's future water supply, given the large amounts of water that data centers need to stay cool.

In terms of who’s responsible for that issue, 57.6 percent of respondents said they put the onus on Texas lawmakers, while 31.5 percent say tech companies should be responsible.

Additionally, more than 75 percent of respondents believed that data center developers and technology companies—not residents—should bear the cost of infrastructure upgrades to support data centers.

“Every decision legislators make has implications on residents’ everyday lives and local infrastructure now and in the future,” Maria P. Perez Arguelles, lead researcher on the report and research assistant professor at the Hobby School, added in the news release. “This issue is going to become more important in years to come, so this is just the beginning.”

Read the full report here.

Houston-born Cemvita makes breakthrough in sustainable fuel production

clean fuels

Houston-based biotech company Cemvita announced that it recently reached a critical milestone in the development of its FermOil product, which can be used to create Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and other renewable fuels at industrial scale.

The company shared in a news release that it completed a 75,000-liter industrial fermentation run at Belgium's Bio Base Europe Pilot Plant.

The campaign achieved target technical metrics for the production of FermOil, Cemvita’s renewable natural oil (RNO). FermOil is produced from industrial crude glycerin, an industrial byproduct, as opposed to traditional sugar-based feedstocks used in many bio-oil fermentation processes. It's designed to be a drop-in feedstock for creating SAFs.

Cemvita had previously advanced its FermOil production process through multiple scale-up stages before successfully reaching the 75,000-liter demonstration campaign, according to the company.

“This is not just a fermentation milestone,” Moji Karimi, CEO at Cemvita, said in the release. “It is a blueprint for how existing industrial infrastructure can evolve into circular bioeconomy infrastructure. Every biodiesel plant generating crude glycerin is a potential platform for renewable natural oil production.”

The milestone also supports the deployment of Cemvita’s industrial biomanufacturing platform, FermWorks, which integrates with existing energy and industrial infrastructure to turn waste carbon streams into SAFs and other materials. According to the release, Cemvita plans to move forward with commercial deployment discussions with partners in Brazil, Europe and in the UK. Cemvita already has a partnership with the Brazilian sustainable research institution REMA.

“We are proud to support innovative companies like Cemvita in scaling breakthrough industrial biotechnology solutions,” Hendrik Waegeman, head of business operations at Bio Base Europe Pilot Plant, added in the release. “Successfully operating at the 75,000-liter scale using a feedstock such as crude glycerin highlights both the maturity of the technology and the quality of the scale-up execution achieved by the Cemvita team.”

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

Eli Lilly scoops up Houston biotech startup in $300 million deal

big pharma deal

Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly has acquired Houston biotech startup CrossBridge Bio, which develops antibody-drug conjugates for cancer, in a deal worth up to $300 million. The deal was celebrated by TMC Venture Fund and the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston last week.

CrossBridge, founded in 2023, is developing ADCs based on research by Kyoji Tsuchikama and Zhiqiang An, both of UT Health Houston. Tsuchikama is an associate professor of medicinal chemistry and a globally recognized ADC pioneer, and An is a professor of molecular science and vice president of drug discovery.

Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) are a potent combination of targeted therapy and chemotherapy that kills cancer cells while saving healthy tissue.

Clinical trials for CrossBridge’s primary ADC candidate, CBB-120, are expected to start this year, pending approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

“I’m proud of how well our team has executed and advanced our platform in such a short time since the company’s founding,” Michael Torres, co-founder and CEO of CrossBridge, said in a news release. “By becoming a part of Lilly, a leader in patient-focused therapeutic development, we are well-positioned to further accelerate the clinical potential of this approach.”

Under the Lilly deal, CrossBridge shareholders were expected to receive an upfront payment along with a follow-up payment based on the achievement of certain milestones.

In 2024, CrossBridge closed a $10 million seed round. Among the investors in CrossBridge are the Texas Medical Center Venture Fund, CE-Ventures, Alexandria Venture Investments, Portal Innovations, Linden Lake Labs, and the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT). It was formed in TMC Innovation’s Accelerator for Cancer Therapeutics program."Built within the TMC ecosystem, CrossBridge Bio grew with the support, funding, and resources that helped shape its trajectory. TMC led the company's early financing and watched it evolve from its earliest days to its acquisition by Eli Lilly," William McKeon, president and CEO of the Texas Medical Center, shared in a LinkedIn post. "[This is a] strong reminder that breakthrough science and the right early backing can change what’s possible."
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