Texas still ranks as No. 1 in U.S. for inbound moves, but growth dips

by the numbers

Texas added 76,000 out-of-state residents in 2024, according to a new report. Photo via Unsplash

Texas continues to be the country’s No. 1 magnet for newcomers from other states, giving a boost to the state’s economy. However, Texas’ appeal weakened in 2024 compared with the previous year, due in large part to spiking home prices.

An analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by self-storage platform StorageCafe shows Texas saw net interstate migration of 76,000 people in 2024. Texas’ net interstate migration dropped nearly 50 percent from 2023, according to the analysis. Net migration refers to the number of incoming residents minus the number of outgoing residents.

California remained the top source of newcomers for Texas, sending nearly 77,000 residents to the Lone Star State in 2024, the analysis says. Florida ranked second, followed by New York, Colorado and Illinois.

“These trends reveal Texas’ continued pull from both high-cost coastal markets and other large Sun Belt states, resulting in a mix of affordability-driven and job-driven relocation,” StorageCafe says.

Putting a damper on the influx of new residents: a roughly 124 percent surge in Texas home prices over the past decade, according to StorageCafe.

“While the state remains significantly more affordable than California, its top feeder state, the once-wide pricing gap has narrowed,” says StorageCafe. “For many movers, Texas is still a relative bargain, but no longer an undisputed one.”

Nonetheless, Texas keeps attracting young, highly educated people, which bodes well for the state’s long-term economic outlook, StorageCafe says. More than half of new arrivals to Texas in 2024 held at least a bachelor’s degree, and the age of newcomers averaged 32.

Where are most of these young, highly educated newcomers settling?

Lloyd Potter, former Texas state demographer, tells StorageCafe that population growth in Texas is happening most rapidly in suburban “ring counties” at the expense of slowing growth in urban cores. Ring counties are on the outskirts of major metro areas.

“Many people are moving from urban cores to suburban rings seeking lower costs, newer housing, better schools, and more space,” Potter says. “Typically, a move to a suburban county will be within commuting or hybrid‑commuting distance of major metro economies.”

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Based on recent population growth figures, you should probably get ready for more traffic. Photo courtesy of TxDOT

Texas population is barreling toward eye-popping milestone in 2022

growth spurt

Texas is edging closer to a milestone — a population of 30 million.

Estimates released December 21 by the U.S. Census Bureau show the population of Texas grew 1.1 percent between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021. During that period, the state added 310,288 residents, going from 29,217,653 to 29,527,941. The tally takes into account births, deaths, people moving to Texas, and people moving out of Texas.

Texas ranked first among the states for the number of residents added from 2020 to 2021, which worked out to 850 new residents per day, and seventh for percentage growth. At 2.9 percent, Idaho ranked first for percentage growth.

If Texas maintains a year-to-year growth rate of at least 1.1 percent, the state might break the 30 million mark sometime in 2022. Driving the state’s continued population explosion are people of color, who’ve made up 91 percent of new Texas residents in the 21st century, according to The Texas Tribune.

Lloyd Potter, the state demographer, says it’s conceivable that Texas could be home to 30 million residents in 2022.

“However, our rate of growth has slowed noticeably between 2020 and 2021, with lower fertility, higher mortality, and less international migration. If we add the same number of people estimated to have been added between 2020 and 2021, then it looks like we’ll come up a bit short of 30 million in 2022,” Potter says.

Throughout the country, the COVID-19 pandemic helped drag down population growth from July 2020 to July 2021. The U.S. population rose just 0.1 percent during that period — the smallest one-year increase since the nation was founded.

“Population growth has been slowing for years because of lower birth rates and decreasing net international migration, all while mortality rates are rising due to the aging of the nation’s population,” Kristie Wilder, a demographer at the Census Bureau, says in a news release. “Now, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this combination has resulted in a historically slow pace of growth.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Nearly 4 million people became Texans in the past decade. Courtesy photo

Texas explodes with 16 percent surge in population, new census data shows

Growth spurt

Texas' population swelled so much from 2010 to 2020 that it essentially swallowed a state the size of Oklahoma.

Figures released April 26 by the U.S. Census Bureau show Texas gained 3,999,944 residents from April 2010 to April 2020. By comparison, the entire population of Oklahoma totaled 3,959,353 in April 2020. Those nearly 4 million new residents brought Texas' population to 29,145,505 as of April 2020.

Buoyed by a spike in the Hispanic population and an influx of out-of-state and international arrivals, Texas led the nation for the sheer number of residents added from the every-10-years headcount in 2010 to the headcount in 2020. Florida ranked second in that category (2,736,877), and California ranked third (2,284,267).

"The growth for Texas was a little bit slower than expected, which may be a function of lower fertility rates post-Great Recession and slower international migration," Lloyd Potter, the Texas state demographer, tells CultureMap.

California still remains the biggest state as measured by population (39,538,223). However, the Quartz news website reported in 2019 that Texas' population could surpass California's by 2045.

Meanwhile, Texas holds the No. 3 position for percentage population growth from 2010 to 2020, according to Census Bureau data. The state's population shot up by 15.9 percent during that period, behind only Utah (18.4 percent) and Idaho (17.3 percent). By contrast, California saw its population climb by just 6.1 percent from 2010 to 2020.

As a result of population shifts across the country, Texas will pick up two seats in the U.S. House, bringing its total to 38, the Census Bureau says. Five states will add one seat each: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. Seven states will lose one seat each: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Based on earlier population estimates, experts had expected Texas to tack on three congressional seats following the 2020 Census. But Potter says Texas' growth relative to population changes in other states pared the Lone Star State's final tally to two more seats.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Persona AI teams with Under Armour to protect next-gen robots

Future Fabrics

Houston-based Persona AI has cemented a partnership with sportswear manufacturer Under Armour to provide materials to protect future robots operating in dangerous conditions.

Through the partnership, Persona AI and Under Armour will launch a research initiative to explore whether advanced performance textiles can improve the durability and resilience of humanoid robots operating in harsh industrial environments.

“This is an opportunity to apply our innovation expertise in a new context,” Kyle Blakely, senior vice president of innovation, design studio, development, and testing at Under Armour, said in a news release. “Robotics presents a fascinating new design challenge, and we aim to play a leading role in shaping performance solutions for these environments. As humanoid systems take on more physically demanding roles, we see real potential to create new market opportunities, and we’re exploring how concepts like thermal management, abrasion resistance, and flexibility translate beyond sport."

Founded in June 2024 by former NASA engineer Nicolaus Radford and former Figure AI CTO Jerry Pratt, Persona AI has quickly risen to be a top name in the development of humanoid robotic systems. Radford previously was the principal investigator at NASA’s Dexterous Robotics Lab before becoming CEO of Nauticus Robotics. While at NASA, he was the chief engineer behind Robotnaut 2, the first humanoid robot on the International Space Station.

Persona AI raised $25 million in preseed funding to develop humanoid robots designed to operate in shipyards and other industrial sites. The company has inked partnerships with HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Robotic, and Korean manufacturing firm Vazil Company to create and deploy humanoid robots for complex welding tasks in shipyards.

These environments often involve exposure to dangerous chemicals, harsh weather and other potential hazards. The partnership between Persona AI and Under Armour will combine the clothing manufacturer’s development of resilient but flexible materials with the humanoid design of Persona AI.

Though best known for its sportswear, Under Armour produces a wide range of specialist fabrics and clothing, including an entire line used by the U.S. military. The company’s track record of developing high-performance fabrics built to withstand war zones and desert conditions makes it a strong partner in Persona AI’s latest endeavor.

“We chose to work with Under Armour because of their track record of innovation with these types of performance materials,” Radford said. “As we develop humanoids for intense and potentially hazardous environments, this collaboration helps us understand how advanced materials can enhance long-term reliability, thereby informing solutions to better protect workers in the field.”

Global summit spotlights Houston's growing role in brain health, innovation

where to be

The Center for Houston’s Future and UTMB are bringing the Texas Brain Economy Summit back to Houston this summer to continue to position the region as a global leader in brain health.

The summit, held June 9-10 at the Texas Medical Center's Helix Park, will bring together more than 500 executives, researchers, policymakers and innovators from around the world to discuss the global brain economy.

Attendees can expect to hear from leaders of global institutions, including the World Economic Forum, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, McKinsey Health Institute, Global Brain Economy Initiative, Davos Alzheimer’s Collaborative, Business Collaborative for Brain Health (UsAgainstAlzheimer’s), Rice University, Memorial Hermann, MD Anderson and many others.

Day 1 of the conference will focus on "Enabling Human Flourishing & Economic Growth." Day 2 will focus on "Scaling Innovation & AI Solutions in the Brain Economy."

Keynotes will be delivered by:

  • Lexi Branson, vice president of health policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  • Kana Enomoto, director of the McKinsey Health Institute
  • Megan Henshall, founder of Google Experience Institute (Xi)
  • Ryan Howard, co-lead of Google Experience Institute (Xi)
  • Dr. Hani Jneid, John Sealy Distinguished Centennial Chair in Cardiology and vice president of cardiovascular operations at UTMB
  • Steve Kean, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership
  • Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas
  • Jochen Reiser, president of UTMB
  • Thomas Seitz, senior partner of the McKinsey Health Institute

Other significant speakers include:

  • Rym Ayadi, founder and president of the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association (EMEA) and co-founder of the Brain Capital Alliance
  • Arthur Evans, CEO and executive vice president of the American Psychological Association
  • David Gow, president and CEO of the Center for Houston’s Future (Gow is the founder and chairman of Gow Media, InnovationMap's parent company)
  • Bill McKeon, president and CEO of the Texas Medical Center
  • Jeff Merritt, head of urban transformation at the World Economic Forum
  • Joanne Pike, president and CEO of the Alzheimer’s Association
  • George Vradenburg, founding chairman of Davos Alzheimer’s Collaborative and co-founder, chairman and CEO of Us Against Alzheimer’s

The event is supported through Project Metis, which was launched by the Center for Houston’s Future last year. Led by Rice Brain Institute, The University of Texas Medical Branch's Moody Brain Health Institute and Memorial Hermann’s comprehensive neurology care department, the initiative aims to advance the understanding, prevention and treatment of the brain. It was developed on the heels of Texas voters overwhelmingly approving a ballot measure to launch the $3 billion, state-funded Dementia Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (DPRIT).

“Texas voters, by approving the state-funded Dementia Prevention Institute, have shown a strong commitment to brain health, as scientific advances continue daily. [Project Metis] aims to harness the Houston region’s unique strengths: its concentration of leading medical and academic institutions, a vibrant innovation ecosystem, and a history of entrepreneurial leadership in health and life sciences,” Gow said at the time.

Learn more about The Texas Brain Economy Summit and purchase tickets here.

Texas solar power poised to surpass coal for the first time in 2026

Powering Texas

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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This article first appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

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