Houston expert looks into behavioral analytics in private equity, growth equity, and venture capital

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The larger the deal, the higher the chances of failure, says this Houston expert. Photo via Getty Images

Study after study puts the failure rate of mergers and acquisitions somewhere between 70 percent and 90 percent (2011, HBR). One KPMG study narrowed the band of M&A failures to 75 percent to 83 percent (2015, KPMG). One constant in the research is that the larger the deal, the higher the chances of failure.

A FAILED MERGER, ACQUISITION, OR DIVESTITURE CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN 2 WAYS:

Qualitative – what the companies had in mind that caused them to merge in the first place doesn't work out that way in the end.
Quantitative – shareholders suffer because operating results deteriorate instead of improve.

Deloitte's M&A Trends 2020 reports that 38 percent of PE firms cite revenue and growth improvement strategies as their primary strategy or focus area for driving value in their portfolio companies.

In the same report, EFFECTIVE INTEGRATION is key for the success of the deal. It accounts for 20 percent of a successful transaction, tied for top place with ACCURATELY VALUING A TARGET.

Post-M&A integration is defined as the implementation of changes in functional activities, organizational structures, and cultures of the two organizations to expedite their consolidation into a functional whole. Of course, this all involves people.

Moreover, Aon Hewitt research shows that:

There is a 23 percent increase in "actively disengaged employees" after a change event – even if no one's job is affected.
It takes about three years to return to pre-merger engagement levels.

With these figures, it is startling that there is not more focus on talent. Executives attribute 72 percent of their company's value to their employees, yet a mere 12 percent of companies align their talent strategy with their business strategy (Predictive Index, The 2020 State of Talent Optimization).

HOW ARE INVESTORS IN THE PRIVATE MARKET CHANGING THE TIDE?

According to Mike Zani, CEO of The Predictive Index, "When you look at the world of PE, growth equity, and to a lesser extent, VC, we are starting to see more talent officers, someone on staff to assist with strategic HR challenges with their portfolio." For example, Vista Equity has a consulting division that is solely focused on the talent and people analytics of its portfolio companies. They go beyond just finding the right executives, they have proprietary analytics tools to add value.

THERE ARE THREE USE CASES FOR ANALYTICS WITHIN THE PRIVATE MARKET:

1. Due Diligence

"One of the most powerful ways behavioral analytics are used for due diligence is understanding the strengths and blind spots of the future leadership team. It's about applying analytical rigor to the people side of the business to create a nuanced understanding of individual and team dynamics so you can be intentional about how to enable and de-risk the execution of future growth plans. We surface people challenges and opportunities early in the process so our clients can put strategies in place for effective change management and talent optimization." Heather Haas, President, ADVISA.

After signing a letter of intent, a consultant can assess the leadership team with behavioral, cognitive, and organizational assessments. In the process of evaluating leadership fit, consultants may identify gaps between the leadership abilities needed and those present in the executive team, and investors must focus attention on closing those gaps. It is much easier to suggest fixing them before the deal is closed, where investors can work with the company to create leadership development or hiring plans. If investors discover that the executive team lacks financial or operational excellence 6 months after close, it is going to be much harder to communicate that in a positive, forward-looking way.

Predictive Index isn't the only tool used for due diligence. Specialty consulting firms that provide due diligence support with people analytics include GH Smart, Green Peak Partners, Korn Ferry, and Deloitte. They use a host of tools ranging from Hogan assessments to proprietary software. "Out of the 150 PE clients with The Predictive Index," Zani says "about 1/3 are using it in due diligence regularly."

2. Post-Deal Value Creation

Effective M&A integration accounts for 20 percent of the success of a deal. As I mentioned in the last post, behavioral analytics can provide insights that allow each person to easily understand how their new team members are wired. This can drastically reduce the time it takes to build cohesion among the group and make for more effective collaboration as project teams are regularly assembled and reassembled. Put simply, instead of using our energy to try to figure each other out, we cut through the noise so we can run faster.

3. Scale

The use of behavioral analytics for hiring is nothing new. With an infusion of cash, one of the first thing a company does in response to growth goals is to hire. People data can help companies scale quickly and with confidence. Max Yoder, CEO and Founder of Lessonly shares about Predictive Index, "Now, every time we hire, we use the assessments as another tool in our toolkit. The results will never decide whether a person gets hired or not, but they do provide guidance as to whom should be in sales, whom should be in client experience, whom should sit in a quiet space, and whom thrives on commotion."

Even with such impressive results, still there are two schools of thought when it comes to how much control private market firms want to have over the operations of their portfolio companies. General Catalyst, the PE firm that invested in Predictive Index, in particular, says they don't want to be the management team. Kirk Arnold, Executive In Residence, General Catalyst says "We're very founder supportive. We invest in entrepreneurs and innovators and work to support them. We share feedback and insights with those teams – and encourage them to The Predictive Index toolset to help them scale effectively. But we don't force any of our teams to invest in any particular tool or strategy. We believe great businesses are built by great teams, and we believe that PI can help companies excel in team building – but we look to the leadership team to make those investment decisions based on their needs and culture.

Prior to becoming a Predictive Index Consultant, I spent five years integrating acquisitions. I only had access to PI for the very last year. It was so powerful in building dream teams that I wished I had known about it sooner. Areas I used PI heavily was in post-deal value creation as well as scaling. In my current practice, I spend about 20 percent of my time performing due diligence for start-ups as well as working with them to round out their team from a data-driven perspective.

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This article was written by Wendy Fong, founder and principal of Chief Gigs, and originally appeared on Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship's blog.

Houston expert: Finding your tech talent through analytics

Houston Voices

You know the work that needs to get done, and you know the environment that you want to build. How do you find the people who will build it with you? Historically, we relied on relationships, intuition, and track record when we evaluate potential team members. This is the same approach we use to find our mates, and well, the divorce rate speaks for itself.

Perhaps you know your potential partner from a previous job when you both worked for a public company, and they were a high performer. Even when we have worked with someone before and they had a great track record, things can go awry. Humans are messy beings. When factors that affect motivation (such as equity percentages, the potential for exit, working 80-plus hours a week) change, performance can be affected. The people who do really well as a cog in the wheel do not necessarily have the same drive to BUILD the wheel. So how do we pick the team members who will best suit the work and environment?

Did you know that 95 percent of people think they're self-aware, yet only 10 to 15 percent actually are (Tasha Eurich)? If people don't know themselves, how can you possibly know your potential partner's fit?

Behavioral assessments aren't new. If you've ever worked for a large company, you've likely taken one. What is different now is that The Predictive Index is harnessing the power of behavioral analytics to predict success and help us visualize teams in a whole new way. We can now look at people's work style in under 6 minutes and quickly give you data on how people will perform in their role and with your team to drive alignment in your organization.

As a founding board member and active investor in Valhalla Investment Group, we recently implemented the practice of using behavioral analytics in our due diligence. We then look at individual and team results to identify any gaps between strategy and the team's ability to execute the strategy. We specifically look at a team's appetite for risk, approach to change, and response to pressure.

The results for one startup we were evaluating came back with a potential red flag. Five of the six in the executive team were exploring leaders in the "Innovation and Agility" quadrant. These leaders are independent and comfortable with risk. We had one who was a very strong stabilizing leader in the "Process and Precision" quadrant. This person is very precise and cautious with risk. We immediately reached out to the CEO to schedule a Zoom to ask how the team works with what could be seen as an "outlier" and how they deal with the friction. The CEO understood the strengths and cautions of his team and explained that while this person is different, they are very much needed. They provide balance and contribute to areas that are blind spots for the rest of the team. The way the CEO handled the question showed us that he was self-aware enough to manage such differences and gave us the confidence to invest in this startup.

HOW IS THIS RELEVANT FOR YOUR STARTUP?

Founders

Wouldn't it be great to know potential partners' appetite for risk, how they deal with deadlines, their proactivity or reactivity to issues before you meet them? Or how they respond to pressure? Founding partners can be evaluated to ensure their behavioral drives align with the startup strategy.

For example, if the strategy is to fail fast to obtain product-market fit and grow market share quickly, founders would need to be innovative, risk-tolerant, comfortable with ambiguity, and they'd need to thrive under pressure. Conversely, if your startup serves a highly regulated environment, your founding team needs to be well-organized, careful with rules, and cautious with risk.

Team dynamics and inclusivity

Without insight into team dynamics, results are left to chance. Behavioral analytics can provide insights that allow each person to easily understand how their new team members are wired. This can drastically reduce the time it takes to build cohesion among the group and make for more efficient and effective collaboration as project teams are regularly assembled and reassembled. Put simply, instead of using our energy to try to figure each other out, we cut through that noise so we can run faster.

Lastly, by creating a job profile and looking for candidates who fit the profile, we can cut out the biases that relationship-based recruiting can introduce to an organization.

"The alignment of business strategies and talent strategies is known as talent optimization."

Talent optimization goes beyond human resources practices, management consulting, and productivity tooling to describe a model that empirically aligns strategy and people practices. It weaves talent improvement practices into the everyday workings of a company to nurture and employ a workforce that is specifically calibrated to the company's strategic objectives. The sooner we utilize people data to look at our organization, the sooner we can spot potential blind spots. Leaders can then address the issues and focus on what's most important for their startup.

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This article was written by Wendy Fong, founder and principal of Chief Gigs, and originally appeared on Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship's blog.

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Autonomous truck company rolls out driverless Houston-Dallas route

up and running

Houston is helping drive the evolution of self-driving freight trucks.

In October, Aurora opened a more than 90,000-square-foot terminal at a Fallbrook Drive logistics hub in northwest Houston to support the launch of its first “lane” for driverless trucks—a Houston-to-Dallas route on the Interstate 45 corridor. Aurora opened its Dallas-area terminal in April and the company began regular driverless customer deliveries between the two Texas cities on April 27.

Close to half of all truck freight in Texas moves along I-45 between Houston and Dallas.

“Now, we are the first company to successfully and safely operate a commercial driverless trucking service on public roads. Riding in the back seat for our inaugural trip was an honor of a lifetime – the Aurora Driver performed perfectly and it’s a moment I’ll never forget,” Chris Urmson, CEO and co-founder of Pittsburgh-based Aurora, said in a news release.

Aurora produces software that controls autonomous vehicles and is known for its flagship product, the Aurora Driver. The software is installed in Volvo and Paccar trucks, the latter of which includes brands like Kenworth and Peterbilt.

Aurora previously hauled more than 75 loads per week under the supervision of vehicle operators from Houston to Dallas and Fort Worth to El Paso for customers in its pilot project, including FedEx, Uber Freight and Werner. To date, it has completed over 1,200 miles without a driver.

The company launched its new Houston to Dallas route with customers Uber Freight and Hirschbach Motor Lines, which ran supervised commercial pilots with Aurora.

“Transforming an old school industry like trucking is never easy, but we can’t ignore the safety and efficiency benefits this technology can deliver. Autonomous trucks aren’t just going to help grow our business – they’re also going to give our drivers better lives by handling the lengthier and less desirable routes,” Richard Stocking, CEO of Hirschbach Motor Lines, added in the statement.

The company plans to expand its service to El Paso and Phoenix by the end of 2025.

“These new, autonomous semis on the I-45 corridor will efficiently move products, create jobs, and help make our roadways safer,” Gov. Greg Abbott added in the release. “Texas offers businesses the freedom to succeed, and the Aurora Driver will further spur economic growth and job creation in Texas. Together through innovation, we will build a stronger, more prosperous Texas for generations.”

In July, Aurora said it raised $820 million in capital to fuel its growth—growth that’s being accompanied by scrutiny.

In light of recent controversies surrounding self-driving vehicles, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, whose union members include over-the-road truckers, recently sent a letter to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick calling for a ban on autonomous vehicles in Texas.

“The Teamsters believe that a human operator is needed in every vehicle—and that goes beyond partisan politics,” the letter states. “State legislators have a solemn duty in this matter to keep dangerous autonomous vehicles off our streets and keep Texans safe. Autonomous vehicles are not ready for prime time, and we urge you to act before someone in our community gets killed.”

Houston cell therapy company launches second-phase clinical trial

fighting cancer

A Houston cell therapy company has dosed its first patient in a Phase 2 clinical trial. March Biosciences is testing the efficacy of MB-105, a CD5-targeted CAR-T cell therapy for patients with relapsed or refractory CD5-positive T-cell lymphoma.

Last year, InnovationMap reported that March Biosciences had closed its series A with a $28.4 million raise. Now, the company, co-founded by Sarah Hein, Max Mamonkin and Malcolm Brenner, is ready to enroll a total of 46 patients in its study of people with difficult-to-treat cancer.

The trial will be conducted at cancer centers around the United States, but the first dose took place locally, at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. Dr. Swaminathan P. Iyer, a professor in the department of lymphoma/myeloma at MD Anderson, is leading the trial.

“This represents a significant milestone in advancing MB-105 as a potential treatment option for patients with T-cell lymphoma who currently face extremely limited therapeutic choices,” Hein, who serves as CEO, says. “CAR-T therapies have revolutionized the treatment of B-cell lymphomas and leukemias but have not successfully addressed the rarer T-cell lymphomas and leukemias. We are optimistic that this larger trial will further validate MB-105's potential to address the critical unmet needs of these patients and look forward to reporting our first clinical readouts.”

The Phase 1 trial showed promise for MB-105 in terms of both safety and efficacy. That means that potentially concerning side effects, including neurological events and cytokine release above grade 3, were not observed. Those results were published last year, noting lasting remissions.

In January 2025, MB-105 won an orphan drug designation from the FDA. That results in seven years of market exclusivity if the drug is approved, as well as development incentives along the way.

The trial is enrolling its single-arm, two-stage study on ClinicalTrials.gov. For patients with stubborn blood cancers, the drug is providing new hope.

Elon Musk's SpaceX site officially becomes the city of Starbase, Texas

Starbase, Texas

The South Texas home of Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket company is now an official city with a galactic name: Starbase.

A vote Saturday, May 3, to formally organize Starbase as a city was approved by a lopsided margin among the small group of voters who live there and are mostly Musk’s employees at SpaceX. With all the votes in, the tally was 212 in favor to 6 against, according to results published online by the Cameron County Elections Department.

Musk celebrated in a post on his social platform, X, saying it is “now a real city!”

Starbase is the facility and launch site for the SpaceX rocket program that is under contract with the Department of Defense and NASA that hopes to send astronauts back to the moon and someday to Mars.

Musk first floated the idea of Starbase in 2021 and approval of the new city was all but certain. Of the 283 eligible voters in the area, most are believed to be Starbase workers.

The election victory was personal for Musk. The billionaire’s popularity has diminished since he became the chain-saw-wielding public face of President Donald Trump’s federal job and spending cuts, and profits at his Tesla car company have plummeted.

SpaceX has generally drawn widespread support from local officials for its jobs and investment in the area.

But the creation of an official company town has also drawn critics who worry it will expand Musk’s personal control over the area, with potential authority to close a popular beach and state park for launches.

Companion efforts to the city vote include bills in the state Legislature to shift that authority from the county to the new town’s mayor and city council.

All these measures come as SpaceX is asking federal authorities for permission to increase the number of South Texas launches from five to 25 a year.

The city at the southern tip of Texas near the Mexico border is only about 1.5 square miles (3.9 square kilometers), crisscrossed by a few roads and dappled with airstream trailers and modest midcentury homes.

SpaceX officials have said little about exactly why they want a company town and did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

“We need the ability to grow Starbase as a community,” Starbase General Manager Kathryn Lueders wrote to local officials in 2024 with the request to get the city issue on the ballot.

The letter said the company already manages roads and utilities, as well as “the provisions of schooling and medical care” for those living on the property.

SpaceX officials have told lawmakers that granting the city authority to close the beach would streamline launch operations. SpaceX rocket launches and engine tests, and even just moving certain equipment around the launch base, requires the closure of a local highway and access to Boca Chica State Park and Boca Chica Beach.

Critics say beach closure authority should stay with the county government, which represents a broader population that uses the beach and park. Cameron County Judge Eddie Trevino, Jr. has said the county has worked well with SpaceX and there is no need for change.

Another proposed bill would make it a Class B misdemeanor with up to 180 days in jail if someone doesn’t comply with an order to evacuate the beach.

The South Texas Environmental Justice Network, which has organized protests against the city vote and the beach access issue, held another demonstration Saturday that attracted dozens of people.

Josette Hinojosa, whose young daughter was building a sandcastle nearby, said she was taking part to try to ensure continued access to a beach her family has enjoyed for generations.

With SpaceX, Hinojosa said, “Some days it’s closed, and some days you get turned away."

Organizer Christopher Basaldú, a member of the Carrizo/Comecrudo Nation of Texas tribe, said his ancestors have long been in the area, where the Rio Grande meets the Gulf.

“It’s not just important,” he said, “it’s sacred.”

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