There's no crystal ball, but this researcher from Rice University is trying to see if some metrics work for economic forecasting. Photo via Getty Images

Research by Rice Business Professor K. Ramesh shows that the Fed appears to harvest qualitative information from the accounting disclosures that all public companies must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

These SEC filings are typically used by creditors, investors and others to make firm-level investing and financing decisions; and while they include business leaders’ sense of economic trends, they are never intended to guide macro-level policy decisions. But in a recent paper (“Externalities of Accounting Disclosures: Evidence from the Federal Reserve”), Ramesh and his colleagues provide persuasive evidence that the Fed nonetheless uses the qualitative information in SEC filings to help forecast the growth of macroeconomic variables like GDP and unemployment.

According to Ramesh, the study was made possible thanks to a decision the SEC made several years ago. The commission stores the reports submitted by public companies in an online database called EDGAR and records the IP address of any party that accesses them. More than a decade ago, the SEC began making partially anonymized forms of those IP addresses available to the public. But researchers eventually figured out how to deanonymize the addresses, which is precisely what Ramesh and his colleagues did in this study.

"We were able to reverse engineer and identify those IP addresses that belonged to Federal Reserve staff," Ramesh says.

The team ultimately assembled a data set containing more than 169,000 filings accessed by Fed staff between 2005 and 2015. They quickly realized that the Fed was interested only in filings submitted by a select group of industry leaders and financial institutions.

But if Ramesh and his colleagues now had a better idea of precisely which bellwether firms the Fed focused on, they still had no way of knowing exactly what Fed staffers had gleaned from the material they accessed. So the team decided to employ a measure called "tone" that captures the overall sentiment of a piece of text – whether positive, negative, or neutral.

Building on previous research that had identified a set of words with negatively toned financial reports, Ramesh and his colleagues examined the tone of all the SEC filings accessed by Fed staff between one meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) and the next. The FOMC sets interest rates and guides monetary policy, and its meetings provide an opportunity for Fed officials to discuss growth forecasts and announce policy decisions.

The researchers then examined the Fed's growth forecasts to see if there was a relationship between the tone of the documents that Fed staff examined in the period between FOMC meetings and the forecasts they produced in advance of those meetings.

The team found close correlations between the tone of the reports accessed by the Fed and the agency’s forecasts of GDP, unemployment, housing starts and industrial production. The more negative the filings accessed prior to an FOMC meeting, for example, the gloomier the GDP forecast; the more positive the filings, the brighter the unemployment forecast.

Ramesh and his colleagues also compared the Fed's forecasts with those of the Society of Professional Forecasters (SPF), whose members span academia and industry. Intriguingly, the researchers found that while the errors in the SPF's forecasts could be attributed to the absence of the tonal information culled from the SEC filings, the errors in the Fed’s forecasts could not. This suggests both that the Fed was collecting qualitative information that the SPF was not—and that the agency was making remarkably efficient use of it.

"They weren’t leaving anything on the table," Ramesh says.

Having solved one mystery, Ramesh would like to focus on another; namely, how does the Fed identify bellwether firms in the first place?

Unfortunately, the SEC no longer makes IP address data publicly available, which means that Ramesh and his colleagues can no longer study which companies the Fed is most interested in. Nonetheless, Ramesh hopes to use the data they have already collected to build a model that can accurately predict which firms the Fed is most likely to follow. That would allow the team to continue studying the same companies that the Fed does, and, he says, “maybe come up with a way to track those firms in order to understand how the economy is going to move.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from K. Ramesh is Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Texas is the 4th hardest working state in America, report finds

Ranking It

It's no secret that Texans are hardworking people. To align with the Labor Day holiday, a new WalletHub study asserts that the Lone Star State is one of the five most hardworking states in America for 2025.

The report ranked Texas the fourth most hardworking state this year, indicating that its residents are working harder than ever after the state fell into seventh place in 2024. Texas previously ranked No. 4 in 2019 and 2020, slipped into No. 5 in 2021 and 2022, then continued falling into sixth place in 2023. But now the state is making its way back to the top of the list.

WalletHub's analysts compared all 50 states based on "direct" and "indirect" work factors. The six "direct" work factors included each state's average workweek hours, employment rates, the share of households where no adults work, the share of workers leaving vacation time unused, and other data. The four "indirect" work factors consisted of workers' average commute times, the share of workers with multiple jobs, the annual volunteer hours per resident, and the average leisure time spent per day.

North Dakota landed on top as the most hardworking state in America for 2025 for another year in a row, earning a score of 66.17 points out of a possible 100. For comparison, Texas ranked No. 4 with 57.06 points. Alaska (No. 2), South Dakota (No. 3), and Hawaii (No. 5) round out the top five hardest working states.

Across the study's two main categories, Texas ranked No. 5 in the "direct" work factors ranking, and earned a respectable No. 18 rank for its "indirect" work factors.

Broken down further, Texans have the second-longest average workweek hours in America, and they have the 12th best average commute times. Texans have the 6th lowest amount of average leisure time spent per day, the report also found.

According to the study's findings, many Americans nationwide won't take the chance to not work as hard when presented with the opportunity. A 2024 Sorbet PTO report found 33 percent of Americans' paid time off was left unused in 2023.

"While leaving vacation time on the table may seem strange to some people, there are plenty of reasons why workers choose to do so," the report's author wrote. "Some fear that if they take time off they will look less dedicated to the job than other employees, risking a layoff. Others worry about falling behind on their work or are concerned that the normal workflow will not be able to function without them."

The top 10 hardest working states are:

  • No. 1 – North Dakota
  • No. 2 – Alaska
  • No. 3 – South Dakota
  • No. 4 – Texas
  • No. 5 – Hawaii
  • No. 6 – Virginia
  • No. 7 – New Hampshire
  • No. 8 – Wyoming
  • No. 9 – Maryland
  • No. 10 – Nebraska
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This story originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston femtech co. debuts new lactation and wellness pods

mom pod

Houston-based femtech company Work&, previously known as Work&Mother, has introduced new products in recent months aimed at supporting working mothers and the overall health of all employees.

The company's new Lactation Pod and Hybrid Pod serve as dual-use lactation and wellness spaces to meet employer demand, the company shared in a news release. The compact pods offer flexible design options that can serve permanent offices and nearly all commercial spaces.

They feature a fully compliant lactation station while also offering wellness functionalities that can support meditation, mental health, telehealth and prayer. In line with Work&'s other spaces, the pods utilize the Work& scheduling platform, which prioritizes lactation bookings to help employers comply with the PUMP Act.

“This isn’t about perks,” Jules Lairson, Work& co-founder and COO, said in the release. “It’s about meeting people where they are—with dignity and intentional design. That includes the mother returning to work, the employee managing anxiety, and everyone in between.”

According to the company, several Fortune 500 companies are already using the pods, and Work& has plans to grow the products' reach.

Earlier this year, Work& introduced its first employee wellness space at MetroNational’s Memorial City Plazas, representing Work&'s shift to offer an array of holistic health and wellness solutions for landlords and tenants.

The company, founded in 2017 by Lairson and CEO Abbey Donnell, was initially focused on outfitting commercial buildings with lactation accommodations for working parents. While Work& still offers these services through its Work&Mother branch, the addition of its Work&Wellbeing arm allowed the company to also address the broader wellness needs of all employees.

The company rebranded as Work& earlier this year.