There's no crystal ball, but this researcher from Rice University is trying to see if some metrics work for economic forecasting. Photo via Getty Images

Research by Rice Business Professor K. Ramesh shows that the Fed appears to harvest qualitative information from the accounting disclosures that all public companies must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

These SEC filings are typically used by creditors, investors and others to make firm-level investing and financing decisions; and while they include business leaders’ sense of economic trends, they are never intended to guide macro-level policy decisions. But in a recent paper (“Externalities of Accounting Disclosures: Evidence from the Federal Reserve”), Ramesh and his colleagues provide persuasive evidence that the Fed nonetheless uses the qualitative information in SEC filings to help forecast the growth of macroeconomic variables like GDP and unemployment.

According to Ramesh, the study was made possible thanks to a decision the SEC made several years ago. The commission stores the reports submitted by public companies in an online database called EDGAR and records the IP address of any party that accesses them. More than a decade ago, the SEC began making partially anonymized forms of those IP addresses available to the public. But researchers eventually figured out how to deanonymize the addresses, which is precisely what Ramesh and his colleagues did in this study.

"We were able to reverse engineer and identify those IP addresses that belonged to Federal Reserve staff," Ramesh says.

The team ultimately assembled a data set containing more than 169,000 filings accessed by Fed staff between 2005 and 2015. They quickly realized that the Fed was interested only in filings submitted by a select group of industry leaders and financial institutions.

But if Ramesh and his colleagues now had a better idea of precisely which bellwether firms the Fed focused on, they still had no way of knowing exactly what Fed staffers had gleaned from the material they accessed. So the team decided to employ a measure called "tone" that captures the overall sentiment of a piece of text – whether positive, negative, or neutral.

Building on previous research that had identified a set of words with negatively toned financial reports, Ramesh and his colleagues examined the tone of all the SEC filings accessed by Fed staff between one meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) and the next. The FOMC sets interest rates and guides monetary policy, and its meetings provide an opportunity for Fed officials to discuss growth forecasts and announce policy decisions.

The researchers then examined the Fed's growth forecasts to see if there was a relationship between the tone of the documents that Fed staff examined in the period between FOMC meetings and the forecasts they produced in advance of those meetings.

The team found close correlations between the tone of the reports accessed by the Fed and the agency’s forecasts of GDP, unemployment, housing starts and industrial production. The more negative the filings accessed prior to an FOMC meeting, for example, the gloomier the GDP forecast; the more positive the filings, the brighter the unemployment forecast.

Ramesh and his colleagues also compared the Fed's forecasts with those of the Society of Professional Forecasters (SPF), whose members span academia and industry. Intriguingly, the researchers found that while the errors in the SPF's forecasts could be attributed to the absence of the tonal information culled from the SEC filings, the errors in the Fed’s forecasts could not. This suggests both that the Fed was collecting qualitative information that the SPF was not—and that the agency was making remarkably efficient use of it.

"They weren’t leaving anything on the table," Ramesh says.

Having solved one mystery, Ramesh would like to focus on another; namely, how does the Fed identify bellwether firms in the first place?

Unfortunately, the SEC no longer makes IP address data publicly available, which means that Ramesh and his colleagues can no longer study which companies the Fed is most interested in. Nonetheless, Ramesh hopes to use the data they have already collected to build a model that can accurately predict which firms the Fed is most likely to follow. That would allow the team to continue studying the same companies that the Fed does, and, he says, “maybe come up with a way to track those firms in order to understand how the economy is going to move.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from K. Ramesh is Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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United breaks ground on $177 million facility and opens tech center at IAH

off the ground

United Airlines announced new infrastructure investments at George Bush Intercontinental Airport as part of the company’s ongoing $3.5 billion investment into IAH.

United broke ground on a new $177 million Ground Service Equipment (GSE) Maintenance Facility this week that will open in 2027.

The 140,000-square-foot GSE facility will support over 1,800 ground service vehicles and with expansive repair space, shop space and storage capacity. The GSE facility will also be targeted for LEED Silver certification. United believes this will provide more resources to assist with charging batteries, fabricating metal and monitoring electronic controls with improved infrastructure and modern workspaces.

Additionally, the company opened its new $16 million Technical Operations Training Center.

The center will include specialized areas for United's growing fleet, and advanced simulation technology that includes scenario-based engine maintenance and inspection training. By 2032, the Training Center will accept delivery of new planes. This 91,000-square-foot facility will include sheet metal and composite training shops as well.

The Training Center will also house a $6.3 million Move Team Facility, which is designed to centralize United's Super Tug operations. United’s IAH Move Team manages over 15 Super Tugs across the airfield, which assist with moving hundreds of aircraft to support flight departures, remote parking areas, and Technical Operations Hangars.

The company says it plans to introduce more than 500 new aircraft into its fleet, and increase the total number of available seats per domestic departure by nearly 30%. United also hopes to reduce carbon emissions per seat and create more unionized jobs by 2026.

"With these new facilities, Ground Service Equipment Maintenance Facility and the Technical Operations Training Center, we are enhancing our ability to maintain a world-class fleet while empowering our employees with cutting-edge tools and training,” Phil Griffith, United's Vice President of Airport Operations, said in a news release. “This investment reflects our long-term vision for Houston as a critical hub for United's operations and our commitment to sustainability, efficiency, and growth."

UH study uncovers sustainable farming methods for hemp production

growth plan

A new University of Houston study of hemp microbes can potentially assist scientists in creating special mixtures of microbes to make hemp plants produce more CBD or have better-quality fibers.

The study, led by Abdul Latif Khan, an assistant professor of biotechnology at the Cullen College of Engineering Technology Division, was published in the journal Scientific Reports from the Nature Publishing Group. The team also included Venkatesh Balan, UH associate professor of biotechnology at the Cullen College of Engineering Technology Division; Aruna Weerasooriya, professor of medicinal plants at Prairie View A&M University; and Ram Ray, professor of agronomy at Prairie View A&M University.

The study examined microbiomes living in and around the roots (rhizosphere) and on the leaves (phyllosphere) of four types of hemp plants. The team at UH compared how these microorganisms differ between hemp grown for fiber and hemp grown for CBD production.

“In hemp, the microbiome is important in terms of optimizing the production of CBD and enhancing the quality of fiber,” Khan said in a news release. “This work explains how different genotypes of hemp harbor microbial communities to live inside and contribute to such processes. We showed how different types of hemp plants have their own special groups of tiny living microbes that help the plants grow and stay healthy.”

The study indicates that hemp cultivation can be improved by better understanding these distinct microbial communities, which impact growth, nutrient absorption, stress resilience, synthesis and more. This could help decrease the need for chemical inputs and allow growers to use more sustainable agricultural practices.

“Understanding these microorganisms can also lead to more sustainable farming methods, using nature to boost plant growth instead of relying heavily on chemicals,” Ahmad, the paper’s first author and doctoral student of Khan’s, said the news release.

Other findings in the study included higher fungal diversity in leaves and stems, higher bacterial diversity in roots and soil, and differing microbiome diversity. According to UH, CBD-rich varieties are currently in high demand for pharmaceutical products, and fiber-rich varieties are used in industrial applications like textiles.