Houston research: Can predictive tools help forecast the stock market?

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The stock market has always been hard, if not impossible, to forecast. Image via Getty Images

What do you think the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will do over the next year?

When Rice Business finance professor Kevin Crotty asks his MBA students this question, the answers are all over the map. Some students expect the overall return on the stock market to be 10 percent, while others predict a loss of 20 percent.

This guessing game is closer to real life than many people realize. Experienced investors, people who have watched the stock market ebb and flow for many years, know that making predictions is a risky business. “Many money managers are more confident choosing individual stocks than trying to time the market,” says finance professor Kevin Crotty.

For most of the past century, academics have applied their power of analysis to understanding and predicting the stock market. Recently, some finance researchers have taken a closer look at option prices—the price paid for the right to buy or sell a security (like a stock or bond) at a specified price in the future. Combining economic theory with high-frequency options price data, they argued that they could estimate the expected return on the market in real-time, which would represent a tremendous development for finance practitioners and academics alike.

Crotty teamed up with Kerry Back, a fellow Rice Business professor, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour, a finance Ph.D. student at the Jones Graduate School of Business, to evaluate whether the new predictors based on option prices really are a valuable forecasting tool. “Options are essentially a forward-looking contract, so it’s possible that they could be used to create a forward-looking measure of expected returns,” says Kazempour.

Economic theory suggests that the new predictors might systematically underestimate expected returns. The team set out to test if this may be the case, and if so, whether the predictors are useful as a forecasting tool. In their paper, “Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds,” the Rice Business researchers ran the predictors through a more rigorous set of statistical tests that provide more power to detect whether the predictors systematically underestimate expected returns. The statistical tests used in previous research on the topic were less stringent, leading to conclusions that the predictors do not underestimate expected returns.

In short, the new predictors didn’t pass the more stringent tests. The researchers found that forecasts built on stock options consistently underestimated market returns. Moreover, the predictors are enough of an underestimate that they are not very useful as forecasts of market returns.

The results were somewhat anticlimatic, the researchers admit. If the option-based predictors had panned out, it could have become an innovative new tool for thinking about market timing for asset managers as well as investment decision-making for corporate finance projects. “Trying to estimate expected market returns is closely related to whether corporations decide to invest in projects,” notes Crotty. “The expected market return is an input in estimating the cost of capital when evaluating projects, and I explain in my MBA courses that we don’t have very precise estimates for this input. During this research project, I kept thinking about how cool it would be if we really had a better estimate,” he says.

Their research doesn’t end here. Crotty and Back have already begun brainstorming ways to potentially improve the option-based forecasting tool so that it can become more accurate.

At best, though, using option prices as a forecasting tool will only be one ingredient out of many that investors use to make decisions. “This tool may inform money management, but it will never drive it,” says Back.

For now, at least, the Rice researchers believe that trying to predict the stock market is still a very risky game.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Rice Professors Kerry Back and Kevin Crotty.

Investors might be drawn to active fund investing, but index funds might be less risky, according to Rice University researchers. Getty Images

Rice University research finds how index funds can be a good investment opportunity for the risk adverse

Houston Voices

It's easy to assume that investing, like cooking, requires skill to get the right mix of ingredients. But that's not the case with index funds. Effort goes into building them, but these ready-made investments need minimal intervention. Yet the outcomes are appetizing indeed.

In the past few decades, use of index funds has exploded. So have media coverage and advertisements questioning if they can truly compete with active funds. A recent study by Alan Crane and Kevin Crotty, professors at the business school, provides a resounding "yes." These humble investment recipes, it turns out, are richer than they might seem.

Index funds track benchmark stock indexes, from the familiar Dow Jones Industrial Average to the widely followed Standard & Poor's 500. Like viewers following a cooking show, index fund managers buy stocks in the same companies and same proportions as those listed in a stock index. The best-known indices are traditionally based on the size of the companies.

The idea is that the index fund's returns will match those of its model. An S&P 500 index fund, for example, includes stocks in the same 500 major companies included in the Standard & Poor index, ranging from Apple to Whole Foods.

Index funds are part of the broad range of investment products called mutual funds. Like cooks making a stew, mutual fund managers add shares of various stocks into one single concoction, inviting investors to buy portions of the whole mixture.

While some mutual funds are active, meaning professional managers regularly buy and sell their assets, index funds are passive. Their managers theoretically just need to keep an eye on any changes in the index they're copying. Not surprisingly, active index funds tend to charge more than passive ones.

Curiously, not all index funds perform at the same level. So what should that mean for investors? To study these variations and their implications, Crane and Crotty expanded on past research about skill and index fund management, analyzing the full cross section of funds.

This wasn't possible to do until fairly recently: there simply weren't enough index funds to study. The first index fund, which tracked the S&P 500, was developed by Vanguard in the 1970s. To do their research, the Rice Business scholars looked at performance information for both index and active funds, starting their sample in 1995 with 29 index funds. The sample expanded to include a total of 240 index funds, all at least two years old with at least $5 million in assets, mostly invested in common stocks. They also analyzed 1,913 actively managed funds.

Using several statistical models, Crane and Cotty found that outperformance in index-fund returns was greater than it would be by chance. The discovery suggests that passive funds, although they require little skill to run, have almost as much upside as active funds.

In fact, the professors found, the best index funds perform surprisingly closely to the best active funds, but at a lower cost to the investor. The worst active funds perform far worse than the worst index funds–even before management fees.

The findings topple the conventional wisdom that only actively managed funds stand a chance of beating the market. While active-fund managers often measure their success against that of passive funds, the data show investors who are risk averse would do better to choose passive funds over more expensive active ones.

More adventurous investors, of course, will always be tempted by what's cooking in actively managed funds. But overall, investing in plain index funds is as good a meal at a lower price.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom.

Alan D. Crane and Kevin Crotty are associate professors of finance at the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Shipley Donuts launches AI-powered ordering assistant

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Popular Houston-born doughnut chain Shipley Donuts has added a first-of-its-kind AI-powered assistant to its online ordering platform.

The new assistant can create personalized order recommendations based on individual or group preferences, according to a news release from the company. Unlike standard chatbox features, the new assistant makes custom recommendations based on multiple customer factors, including budgetary habits, individual flavor preferences and order size.

"We're not just adding AI for the sake of innovation — we're solving real customer pain points by making ordering more intuitive, personalized and efficient," Kerry Leo, Shipley Vice President of Technology, said in the release.

The system also works for larger events, as it can make individual orders and catering recommendations for corporate events and meetings by suggesting quantities and assortments based on group size, event type and budget.

According to Shipley, nearly 1 in 4 guests have completed orders with the new AI technology since it launched on its website.

“The integration of the AI ordering assistant into our refreshed website represents a significant leap forward in how restaurant brands can leverage technology to enhance the customer experience,” Leo added in the release.

Houston company wins AHA competition for pediatric heart valve design

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Houston-based PolyVascular, which develops minimally invasive solutions for children with congenital heart disease, was named the overall winner of the American Heart Association’s annual Health Tech Competition earlier this month.

The company was founded in 2014 by Dr. Henri Justino and Daniel Harrington and was part of TMCi's 2017 medical device cohort. It is developing the first polymer-based transcatheter pulmonary valve designed specifically for young children, allowing for precise sizing and redilation as the child grows while also avoiding degradation. PolyVascular has completed preclinical studies and is working toward regulatory submissions, an early feasibility study and its first-in-human clinical trial thanks to a recent SBIR grant from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

With the new AHA honor, PolyVascular will be invited to join the association’s Center for Health Technology & Innovation Innovators’ Network, which connects entrepreneurs, providers and researchers to share and advance innovation in cardiovascular and brain health.

“This is a tremendous honor for PolyVascular—we’re especially proud to bring hope to families and children living with congenital heart defects,” Justino said in a news release. “Our technology—a minimally invasive valve that can be expanded over time to grow with the child—has the potential to dramatically reduce the need for repeated open-heart surgeries.”

The Health Tech Competition is a live forum for health care innovators to present their digital solutions for treating or preventing cardiovascular diseases and stroke.

Finalists from around the world addressed heart failure, hypertension, congenital heart defects and other issues that exist in cardiovascular, brain and metabolic health. Solutions were evaluated on the criteria of validity, scientific rigor and impact.

The judges included Texas-based Dr. Eric D. Peterson, professor of medicine in the division of cardiology at UT Southwestern Medical Center, and Dr. Asif Ali, clinical associate professor of cardiovascular medicine at the University of Texas Medical School in Houston and director at Cena Research Institute.

According to the American Heart Association, nearly half of U.S. adults live with some form of cardiovascular disease or stroke.

“The American Heart Association plays a pivotal role in advancing innovative care pathways, and we’re excited that our solution aligns with its guidelines and mission,” Justino said in a news release. “It’s time these life-changing technologies reach the youngest patients, just as they already do for adults.”

EO Houston is where ambitious founders go to scale smarter

Don't Go It Alone

Scaling a business from early traction into true growth is one of the most exciting — and punishing — chapters of entrepreneurship. Houston founders know this better than most. Our city is built on ambition: fast-moving industries, talent from around the world, and opportunities that expand as large as the Texas sky.

But as many entrepreneurs eventually learn, scaling isn’t simply “more of what worked.” It requires new systems, new thinking, and often, a new version of the founder. Even the most capable founders eventually face decisions, pressures, and turning points that only other entrepreneurs can truly understand.

Entrepreneurs’ Organization, a global peer-to-peer network of more than 18,000 business owners across 220 chapters in 75+ countries, exists for exactly this stage. One of the largest chapters in the organization, EO Houston brings that global community to life locally, offering founders the connection, learning, and accountability needed to grow sustainably and to grow up as leaders.

A community where founders learn at the highest level
The real value of EO emerges in the lived experiences of other entrepreneurs. When Houston-area founders talk about the moments growth nearly broke their companies, a universal theme appears: you can’t do it alone.

EO Houston member Robert De Los Santos of Sky High Party Rentals learned this the hard way when rapid post-COVID growth made expansion feel limitless — until it wasn’t.

“After COVID, we doubled every year and assumed inventory was the limit. In 2023 we overbought, only to realize demand had peaked. That taught us a hard truth: growth in one city has ceilings. Expanding into Austin and Dallas — the Texas Triangle — gave us new markets to put our inventory to work while we figured out how to penetrate Houston better. The challenge shifted from a strategy of ‘buy more units for demand’ to learning how to tackle the challenges of ‘leading across cities.’”

Founders often enter EO exhausted from trying to maintain control as things grow more complex. Many discover, like Jarred King of Summit Firms, that scaling requires the difficult shift from doing everything to building the team that can.

“We grew quickly because of my network, relationships, and hustle… but I was doing all the work,” King says. “I realized at that point you have to delegate — not just busy work, but important decisions to your key team, as well as set up really effective SOPs.”

“The uncomfortable truth is that you are no longer the best person for most jobs in your company," agrees Darren Randle of Houston Tents & Events. "Your inability to delegate or hire people smarter than you in key leadership and management level roles will become the single biggest drag on the entire business. You have to accept that your original 'hustle' is now a scalability risk."

Making hard decisions, such as walking away from customers or contracts, can feel like less of a sting when you know others have also been faced with tough choices. Aaron Gillaspie of West U's My Salon Suite recalls, “You can’t be everything to everyone, it’s ok to say no, and just understand some customers aren’t the right fit. It’s a two way street and both must win.”

Perspective is perhaps the most important reality check that members find at EO.

“Bigger volume will not make problems go away — you just got to get used to walking the tightrope," says Roger Pombrol of Emerald Standard. "Develop a system for good balance and do not freak out. Scared is no way to live your life. It’s ok if you fall. Your family will still love you. Money is just money. Love is love. The world tries to make you conflate them, but don’t."

Actionable insights from entrepreneurs who’ve already scaled
Conversations like these are happening every month inside EO Forum Meeting. Each EO chapter is divided into several small Forums. These confidential, committed group of 7–10 entrepreneurs who meet to share the real five percent of what they’re experiencing. It’s not advice, but experience — shared candidly, respectfully, and with the kind of vulnerability that leads to breakthroughs.

What makes Forum so impactful is the honesty it draws out. Entrepreneurs are often surrounded by employees, partners, and even family members who rely on them for answers, but seldom do they have a group where vulnerability is not only welcomed, but expected.

Learning experiences that match your ambition
EO supports that growth far beyond peer groups. Through the organization’s global partnerships with institutions like Harvard, Oxford, and INSEAD, Houston members gain access to executive-level learning experiences designed specifically for entrepreneurs.

These programs help founders step out of the day-to-day and think strategically about competitive advantage, innovation, and organizational leadership. Paired with ongoing learning through EO Jumpstart, Nano Learning, and its global library of member-created content, founders stay informed, challenged, and ahead of emerging trends.

And through global communities — ranging from EO Women and EO Under 35 to industry-specific groups — Houston members tap into expertise that spans continents and sectors. Whether someone is navigating M&A, exploring international expansion, or integrating new technologies, the right perspectives are always within reach.

What truly distinguishes EO Houston, however, is its culture. Houston’s entrepreneurial landscape is uniquely diverse and resilient, filled with founders who are hungry to build, innovate, and elevate the city’s business community. EO Houston amplifies that spirit, creating relationships that are as supportive as they are strategic. Many members describe the chapter not simply as a network, but as a catalyst for becoming better leaders, better thinkers, and — just as importantly — better human beings.

Your next level starts here
For entrepreneurs who are ready to scale—beyond their first million, beyond their current comfort zone, and toward a future that requires sharper leadership and stronger community—EO Houston offers an unmatched platform. It is a place where ambitious founders grow faster, think bigger, and gain the confidence to take bold next steps.

If you’re ready to elevate your business and your leadership alongside people who understand the journey, EO Houston is ready to welcome you. Your next level starts with the peers who can help you reach it. Learn more and become a member here.

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