Houston research: Can predictive tools help forecast the stock market?

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The stock market has always been hard, if not impossible, to forecast. Image via Getty Images

What do you think the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will do over the next year?

When Rice Business finance professor Kevin Crotty asks his MBA students this question, the answers are all over the map. Some students expect the overall return on the stock market to be 10 percent, while others predict a loss of 20 percent.

This guessing game is closer to real life than many people realize. Experienced investors, people who have watched the stock market ebb and flow for many years, know that making predictions is a risky business. “Many money managers are more confident choosing individual stocks than trying to time the market,” says finance professor Kevin Crotty.

For most of the past century, academics have applied their power of analysis to understanding and predicting the stock market. Recently, some finance researchers have taken a closer look at option prices—the price paid for the right to buy or sell a security (like a stock or bond) at a specified price in the future. Combining economic theory with high-frequency options price data, they argued that they could estimate the expected return on the market in real-time, which would represent a tremendous development for finance practitioners and academics alike.

Crotty teamed up with Kerry Back, a fellow Rice Business professor, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour, a finance Ph.D. student at the Jones Graduate School of Business, to evaluate whether the new predictors based on option prices really are a valuable forecasting tool. “Options are essentially a forward-looking contract, so it’s possible that they could be used to create a forward-looking measure of expected returns,” says Kazempour.

Economic theory suggests that the new predictors might systematically underestimate expected returns. The team set out to test if this may be the case, and if so, whether the predictors are useful as a forecasting tool. In their paper, “Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds,” the Rice Business researchers ran the predictors through a more rigorous set of statistical tests that provide more power to detect whether the predictors systematically underestimate expected returns. The statistical tests used in previous research on the topic were less stringent, leading to conclusions that the predictors do not underestimate expected returns.

In short, the new predictors didn’t pass the more stringent tests. The researchers found that forecasts built on stock options consistently underestimated market returns. Moreover, the predictors are enough of an underestimate that they are not very useful as forecasts of market returns.

The results were somewhat anticlimatic, the researchers admit. If the option-based predictors had panned out, it could have become an innovative new tool for thinking about market timing for asset managers as well as investment decision-making for corporate finance projects. “Trying to estimate expected market returns is closely related to whether corporations decide to invest in projects,” notes Crotty. “The expected market return is an input in estimating the cost of capital when evaluating projects, and I explain in my MBA courses that we don’t have very precise estimates for this input. During this research project, I kept thinking about how cool it would be if we really had a better estimate,” he says.

Their research doesn’t end here. Crotty and Back have already begun brainstorming ways to potentially improve the option-based forecasting tool so that it can become more accurate.

At best, though, using option prices as a forecasting tool will only be one ingredient out of many that investors use to make decisions. “This tool may inform money management, but it will never drive it,” says Back.

For now, at least, the Rice researchers believe that trying to predict the stock market is still a very risky game.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Rice Professors Kerry Back and Kevin Crotty.

Investors might be drawn to active fund investing, but index funds might be less risky, according to Rice University researchers. Getty Images

Rice University research finds how index funds can be a good investment opportunity for the risk adverse

Houston Voices

It's easy to assume that investing, like cooking, requires skill to get the right mix of ingredients. But that's not the case with index funds. Effort goes into building them, but these ready-made investments need minimal intervention. Yet the outcomes are appetizing indeed.

In the past few decades, use of index funds has exploded. So have media coverage and advertisements questioning if they can truly compete with active funds. A recent study by Alan Crane and Kevin Crotty, professors at the business school, provides a resounding "yes." These humble investment recipes, it turns out, are richer than they might seem.

Index funds track benchmark stock indexes, from the familiar Dow Jones Industrial Average to the widely followed Standard & Poor's 500. Like viewers following a cooking show, index fund managers buy stocks in the same companies and same proportions as those listed in a stock index. The best-known indices are traditionally based on the size of the companies.

The idea is that the index fund's returns will match those of its model. An S&P 500 index fund, for example, includes stocks in the same 500 major companies included in the Standard & Poor index, ranging from Apple to Whole Foods.

Index funds are part of the broad range of investment products called mutual funds. Like cooks making a stew, mutual fund managers add shares of various stocks into one single concoction, inviting investors to buy portions of the whole mixture.

While some mutual funds are active, meaning professional managers regularly buy and sell their assets, index funds are passive. Their managers theoretically just need to keep an eye on any changes in the index they're copying. Not surprisingly, active index funds tend to charge more than passive ones.

Curiously, not all index funds perform at the same level. So what should that mean for investors? To study these variations and their implications, Crane and Crotty expanded on past research about skill and index fund management, analyzing the full cross section of funds.

This wasn't possible to do until fairly recently: there simply weren't enough index funds to study. The first index fund, which tracked the S&P 500, was developed by Vanguard in the 1970s. To do their research, the Rice Business scholars looked at performance information for both index and active funds, starting their sample in 1995 with 29 index funds. The sample expanded to include a total of 240 index funds, all at least two years old with at least $5 million in assets, mostly invested in common stocks. They also analyzed 1,913 actively managed funds.

Using several statistical models, Crane and Cotty found that outperformance in index-fund returns was greater than it would be by chance. The discovery suggests that passive funds, although they require little skill to run, have almost as much upside as active funds.

In fact, the professors found, the best index funds perform surprisingly closely to the best active funds, but at a lower cost to the investor. The worst active funds perform far worse than the worst index funds–even before management fees.

The findings topple the conventional wisdom that only actively managed funds stand a chance of beating the market. While active-fund managers often measure their success against that of passive funds, the data show investors who are risk averse would do better to choose passive funds over more expensive active ones.

More adventurous investors, of course, will always be tempted by what's cooking in actively managed funds. But overall, investing in plain index funds is as good a meal at a lower price.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom.

Alan D. Crane and Kevin Crotty are associate professors of finance at the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Port Houston reports emissions progress as cargo volumes climb

Greener growth

Port Houston’s initiatives to reduce emissions have shown some positive results, according to new data from the Port of Houston Authority.

Pulling from the Goods Movement Emissions Inventory (GMEI) report, which tracks port-related air emissions, Port Houston cited several improvements compared to the most recent report from 2019.

The port has seen total tonnage and container volumes increase by 16 percent and 28 percent, respectively, since 2019. However, greenhouse gas emissions have increased at a slower rate, growing only by 10 percent during the same time period, according to the data.

Additionally, emissions of nitrogen oxide fell by 7 percent, and emissions of particulate matter fell by 4 percent, despite adding 280 more pieces of cargo handling equipment.

“These results show that our emission-reduction efforts are working, and we are moving in the right direction,” Chairman Ric Campo said in a news release.

The Port Commission also recently approved items related to the $3 million U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Ports Program (CPP) grant, which it received last year. The items will allow the port to work towards five new sustainability initiatives.

They include:

  1. An inventory of the port’s Scopes 1, 2, and 3 for greenhouse gas emissions
  2. A Port Area Climate Action Plan for the area and surrounding communities
  3. A CPP Truck Route Analysis
  4. Creation of the CPP Trucking Industry Collaborative
  5. Design of a customized website for Port of Houston Partners in Maritime Education, which is a non-profit leading maritime workforce development effort in local schools

Port Houston aims to be carbon neutral by 2050.

Houston leader on building inclusive communities through innovation

Guest Column

Innovation is often celebrated for speed or curiosity, but genuine progress is about inclusion and expanding the populations that benefit from new technologies.

For example, at Yale University, nursing students are now utilizing a hyper-realistic patient mannequin with Down syndrome, which not only mimics appearance but also fosters both empathy and competence in medical professionals who will treat people of all abilities. Tools like this remind us that innovation is not only about what is new, but also about how we include everyone in progress.

Inclusive Technology: What It Means

Inclusive technology design begins with diverse users in mind, including people living with disabilities such as blindness, hearing loss, or limb loss. Additionally, neurodiverse learners and those with varied learning styles benefit from inclusive technology. The purpose is to create tools that serve everyone in their homes, classrooms, workplaces, and public spaces. Inclusive technology is not only about empathy, but also equity. Innovation bridges gaps and extends access to all people.

National and Local Innovations Advancing Inclusion

Across the country, inclusive technology is transforming access for individuals with varying abilities. Robotics adapted for visually impaired students, audio-virtual reality labs for immersive learning, and AI-based platforms that personalize lessons for students are helping students engage in ways traditional tools cannot. These innovations are not just technical; instead, they are also deeply human, designed to expand access and opportunity for every learner.

Locally, Houston-based organizations demonstrate how inclusive tech can be paired with supportive programs to amplify impact:

  • BridgingApps, a program of Easter Seals of Greater Houston, provides assistive-tech labs and mobile devices for children and adults with disabilities, helping students communicate, learn, and connect in ways they may not have thought possible before.
  • MADE Houston creates adaptive classroom environments for twice-exceptional learners (gifted students with learning differences), ensuring that both their strengths and challenges are incorporated in the curriculum and class experiences.

Both programs partner with Camp For All to provide barrier-free camp experiences to their students.

Innovative technology has the power to change student outcomes and improve the quality of life. Reports such as Inclusive Technology in a 21st Century Learning System show that students with disabilities who have access to these tools are two to three times more likely to graduate from high school than those without.

Complementing these technology-driven advances are experiential programs that create community and empowering experiences.

Camp For All, for example, offers medically safe and adaptive camp experiences for children and adults with challenging illnesses, disabilities, or special needs. Camp For All demonstrates how barrier-free environments, combined with opportunities to explore and try new activities, foster confidence and resilience in campers, such as those who benefit from Easter Seals of Greater Houston and MADE Houston camps.

Why This Matters

When tools and technologies are designed to include everyone, the impact has the potential to impact all people. Individuals with physical, sensory, or learning differences gain confidence and access to opportunities, which leads to more diverse workforces and stronger communities.

Technology, educational tools, and thoughtfully designed programs can reduce barriers, improve academic outcomes, and help prepare individuals for future employment and independent living. Conversely, failing to design inclusively can further entrench inequities related to race, income, and abilities.

For context, while the national graduation rate for students with disabilities has risen to 74%, it still lags behind the 88% rate for peers without disabilities. Technology and inclusive programs help bridge this gap, ensuring that not only more students graduate, but that individuals with disabilities also are better prepared to access higher education, participate fully in the workforce, and engage in social and civic life.

Inclusive tools, such as accessible transportation services, audible pedestrian signals, braille ballots for voting, and short-term device loan programs like TTAP, expand opportunities and promote equitable participation across all aspects of society.

Additionally, research shows that early exposure and inclusion of those living with disabilities, such as in classrooms, community spaces, and club activities, fosters a greater acceptance of differences and proclivity toward inclusive attitudes as children mature. When we begin focusing on acceptance and innovative solutions for all people from the very beginning, our communities are stronger and we increase access to participation for all.

Challenges, Opportunities, and Ripple Effects

Despite progress, obstacles to scaling inclusive technology remain. Many families and schools cannot afford high-end assistive devices, and tools are often developed without input from the users who will rely on them the most.

Although grants and pilot programs exist, systemic funding and support are still limited. Educators, healthcare providers, and city planners also require training and guidance to effectively implement these tools. Overcoming these challenges requires coordinated efforts among technology companies, educators, nonprofits, policymakers, and the communities they serve.

Houston’s rich mix of innovation, research institutions, and nonprofit networks makes it an ideal testing ground for inclusive technology, and we are seeing more advancements daily. Schools and early learning centers are piloting innovative tools, including adaptive learning software, interactive robotics, music therapy, and word prediction programs.

At the same time, medical and therapy programs use simulation labs and telehealth tools to improve treatment for children and adults with disabilities. Civic and public spaces are also becoming more accessible through smart city initiatives such as wayfinding apps, inclusive playgrounds, and sensory-friendly public areas. These examples demonstrate that inclusive technology is about creating meaningful opportunities for everyone, regardless of ability, background, or resources.

When inclusion is prioritized, the benefits extend far beyond individual users. Educational outcomes improve as more students meet learning goals and graduate successfully. Workforce readiness increases as a broader range of skills and abilities enters the labor market. Community equity grows as individuals from underserved communities gain access to tools and experiences that were previously inaccessible.

Increasing participation for students and individuals translates into stronger local and state economies. At its core, inclusive technology creates equity and resilience at both the individual and community level.

Moving Forward

Designing with empathy, investing in equitable access, and acting with urgency are essential to building communities where everyone has the opportunity to contribute. Houston, with its combination of medical research institutions, ed-tech startups, aerospace leadership, nonprofit networks, and pilot programs, is uniquely positioned to lead the nation in inclusive innovation.

By prioritizing technology and programs that serve all learners, the city can demonstrate that meaningful progress is measured not by speed or novelty, but by the number of people who benefit from it. When cities, organizations, and communities commit to inclusive design, they build stronger and more equitable places where everyone benefits and thrives.

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Pat Prior Sorrells is president and CEO of Camp For All, a Texas-based nonprofit organization. Located in Burton, Texas, the 206-acre Camp For All site was designed with no barriers for children and adults with special needs to experience the joy of camping and nature. Camp For All collaborates with more than 65 nonprofit organizations across the Greater Houston area and beyond to enable thousands of campers and their families to discover life each year. She speaks regularly on the need for inclusive design in public spaces.

7 innovative startups that are leading the energy transition in Houston

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Houston has long been touted as the energy capital of the world, and it's now it's also a leading player in the energy transition — home to numerous startups and innovators working toward a cleaner future.

As part of the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards, our Energy Transition Business category honors innovative startups that are providing solution within renewables, climatetech, clean energy, alternative materials, circular economy, and more.

Seven energy transition companies have been named finalists for the 2025 award. They range from a spinoff stimulating subsurface hydrogen from end-of-life oil fields to a company converting prickly pear cactus biogas into energy.

Read more about these climatetech businesses, their founders, and their green initiatives below. Then join us at the Houston Innovation Awards on Nov. 13 at Greentown Labs, when the winner will be unveiled at our live awards ceremony.

Tickets are now on sale for this exclusive event celebrating all things Houston Innovation.

Anning Corporation

Clean energy company Anning Corporation is working to develop geologic hydrogen, a natural carbon-free fuel, using its proprietary stimulation approaches and advanced exploration modeling. The company said that geologic hydrogen has the potential to be the lowest-cost source of reliable baseload electricity in the U.S.

The company was founded by CEO Sophie Broun in 2024 and is a member of Greentown Labs. Last month, it also announced that it was chosen to participate in Breakthrough Energy’s prestigious Fellows Program. Anning raised a pre-seed round this year and is currently raising a $6 million seed round.

Capwell Services

Houston-based methane capture company Capwell Services works to eliminate vented oil and gas emissions economically for operators. According to the company, methane emissions are vented from most oil and gas facilities due to safety protocols, and operators are not able to capture the gas cost-effectively, leading operators to emit more than 14 million metric tons of methane per year in the U.S. and Canada. Founded in 2022, Capwell specializes in low and intermittent flow vents for methane capture.

The company began as a University of Pennsylvania senior design project led by current CEO Andrew Lane. It has since participated in programs with Greentown Labs and Rice Clean Energy Accelerator. The company moved to Houston in 2023 and raised a pre-seed round. It has also received federal funding from the DOE. Capwell is currently piloting its commercial unit with oil and gas operators.

Deep Anchor Solutions

Offshore energy consulting and design company Deep Anchor Solutions aims to help expedite the adoption of floating offshore energy infrastructure with its deeply embedded ring anchor (DERA) technology. According to the company, its patented DERA system can be installed quietly without heavy-lift vessels, reducing anchor-related costs by up to 75 percent and lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80 percent.

The company was founded in 2023 by current CEO Junho Lee and CTO Charles Aubeny. Lee earned his Ph.D. in geotechnical engineering from Texas A&M University, where Aubeny is a professor of civil and environmental engineering. The company has participated in numerous accelerators and incubators, including Greentown Labs, MassChallenge, EnergyTech Nexus LiftOff, and others. Lee is an Activate 2025 fellow.

Eclipse Energy

Previously known as Gold H2, Eclipse Energy converts end-of-life oil fields into low-cost, sustainable hydrogen sources. It completed its first field trial this summer, which demonstrated subsurface bio-stimulated hydrogen production. According to the company, its technology could yield up to 250 billion kilograms of low-carbon hydrogen, which is estimated to provide enough clean power to Los Angeles for over 50 years and avoid roughly 1 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent.

Eclipse is a spinoff of Houston biotech company Cemvita. It was founded in 2022 by Moji Karimi (CEO and chairman of Cemvita), Prabhdeep Sekhon (CEO of Eclipse), Tara Karimi, and Rayyan Islam. The company closed an $8 million series A this year and has plans to raise another round in 2026.

Loop Bioproducts

Agricultural chemical manufacturing company Loop Bioproducts leverages the physiology of prickly pear cactus grown in Texas to produce bioenergy, food, and remediate industrial wastewater streams. The company uses its remote sensing technology, proprietary image-based machine learning model, and R&D innovation to capture raw biogas from the cactuses and is focused on scaling cactuses as an industrial crop on land.

Rhiannon Parker founded Loop Bioproducts in 2023.

Mars Materials

Clean chemical manufacturing business Mars Materials is working to convert captured carbon into resources, such as carbon fiber and wastewater treatment chemicals. The company develops and produces its drop-in chemical products in Houston and uses an in-licensed process for the National Renewable Energy Lab to produce acrylonitrile, which is used to produce plastics, synthetic fibers, and rubbers. The company reports that it plans to open its first commercial plant in the next 18 months.

Founded in 2019 by CEO Aaron Fitzgerald, CTO Kristian Gubsch, and lead engineer Trey Sheridan, the company has raised just under $1 million in capital and is backed by Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy, Shell, Black & Veatch, and other organizations.

Solidec

Chemical manufacturing company Solidec has developed autonomous generators that extract molecules from water and air and converts them into pure chemicals and fuels that are free of carbon emissions onsite, eliminating the need for transport, storage, and permitting. The company was founded around innovations developed by Rice University associate professor Haotian Wang.

The company was selected for the Chevron Technology Ventures’ catalyst program, Greentown Labs, NSF I-Corps and was part of the first cohort of the Activate Houston program. It won first place at the 2024 startup pitch competition at CERAWeek. Solidec was founded in 2023 by Wang, who serves as chief scientist, CEO Ryan DuChanois, and CTO Yang Xia. It closed a $2.5 million seed round earlier this year.

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The Houston Innovation Awards program is sponsored by Houston Community College, Houston Powder Coaters, FLIGHT by Yuengling, and more to be announced soon. For sponsorship opportunities, please contact sales@innovationmap.com.

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