Houston research: Can predictive tools help forecast the stock market?

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The stock market has always been hard, if not impossible, to forecast. Image via Getty Images

What do you think the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will do over the next year?

When Rice Business finance professor Kevin Crotty asks his MBA students this question, the answers are all over the map. Some students expect the overall return on the stock market to be 10 percent, while others predict a loss of 20 percent.

This guessing game is closer to real life than many people realize. Experienced investors, people who have watched the stock market ebb and flow for many years, know that making predictions is a risky business. “Many money managers are more confident choosing individual stocks than trying to time the market,” says finance professor Kevin Crotty.

For most of the past century, academics have applied their power of analysis to understanding and predicting the stock market. Recently, some finance researchers have taken a closer look at option prices—the price paid for the right to buy or sell a security (like a stock or bond) at a specified price in the future. Combining economic theory with high-frequency options price data, they argued that they could estimate the expected return on the market in real-time, which would represent a tremendous development for finance practitioners and academics alike.

Crotty teamed up with Kerry Back, a fellow Rice Business professor, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour, a finance Ph.D. student at the Jones Graduate School of Business, to evaluate whether the new predictors based on option prices really are a valuable forecasting tool. “Options are essentially a forward-looking contract, so it’s possible that they could be used to create a forward-looking measure of expected returns,” says Kazempour.

Economic theory suggests that the new predictors might systematically underestimate expected returns. The team set out to test if this may be the case, and if so, whether the predictors are useful as a forecasting tool. In their paper, “Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds,” the Rice Business researchers ran the predictors through a more rigorous set of statistical tests that provide more power to detect whether the predictors systematically underestimate expected returns. The statistical tests used in previous research on the topic were less stringent, leading to conclusions that the predictors do not underestimate expected returns.

In short, the new predictors didn’t pass the more stringent tests. The researchers found that forecasts built on stock options consistently underestimated market returns. Moreover, the predictors are enough of an underestimate that they are not very useful as forecasts of market returns.

The results were somewhat anticlimatic, the researchers admit. If the option-based predictors had panned out, it could have become an innovative new tool for thinking about market timing for asset managers as well as investment decision-making for corporate finance projects. “Trying to estimate expected market returns is closely related to whether corporations decide to invest in projects,” notes Crotty. “The expected market return is an input in estimating the cost of capital when evaluating projects, and I explain in my MBA courses that we don’t have very precise estimates for this input. During this research project, I kept thinking about how cool it would be if we really had a better estimate,” he says.

Their research doesn’t end here. Crotty and Back have already begun brainstorming ways to potentially improve the option-based forecasting tool so that it can become more accurate.

At best, though, using option prices as a forecasting tool will only be one ingredient out of many that investors use to make decisions. “This tool may inform money management, but it will never drive it,” says Back.

For now, at least, the Rice researchers believe that trying to predict the stock market is still a very risky game.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Rice Professors Kerry Backand Kevin Crotty.

Investors might be drawn to active fund investing, but index funds might be less risky, according to Rice University researchers. Getty Images

Rice University research finds how index funds can be a good investment opportunity for the risk adverse

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It's easy to assume that investing, like cooking, requires skill to get the right mix of ingredients. But that's not the case with index funds. Effort goes into building them, but these ready-made investments need minimal intervention. Yet the outcomes are appetizing indeed.

In the past few decades, use of index funds has exploded. So have media coverage and advertisements questioning if they can truly compete with active funds. A recent study by Alan Crane and Kevin Crotty, professors at the business school, provides a resounding "yes." These humble investment recipes, it turns out, are richer than they might seem.

Index funds track benchmark stock indexes, from the familiar Dow Jones Industrial Average to the widely followed Standard & Poor's 500. Like viewers following a cooking show, index fund managers buy stocks in the same companies and same proportions as those listed in a stock index. The best-known indices are traditionally based on the size of the companies.

The idea is that the index fund's returns will match those of its model. An S&P 500 index fund, for example, includes stocks in the same 500 major companies included in the Standard & Poor index, ranging from Apple to Whole Foods.

Index funds are part of the broad range of investment products called mutual funds. Like cooks making a stew, mutual fund managers add shares of various stocks into one single concoction, inviting investors to buy portions of the whole mixture.

While some mutual funds are active, meaning professional managers regularly buy and sell their assets, index funds are passive. Their managers theoretically just need to keep an eye on any changes in the index they're copying. Not surprisingly, active index funds tend to charge more than passive ones.

Curiously, not all index funds perform at the same level. So what should that mean for investors? To study these variations and their implications, Crane and Crotty expanded on past research about skill and index fund management, analyzing the full cross section of funds.

This wasn't possible to do until fairly recently: there simply weren't enough index funds to study. The first index fund, which tracked the S&P 500, was developed by Vanguard in the 1970s. To do their research, the Rice Business scholars looked at performance information for both index and active funds, starting their sample in 1995 with 29 index funds. The sample expanded to include a total of 240 index funds, all at least two years old with at least $5 million in assets, mostly invested in common stocks. They also analyzed 1,913 actively managed funds.

Using several statistical models, Crane and Cotty found that outperformance in index-fund returns was greater than it would be by chance. The discovery suggests that passive funds, although they require little skill to run, have almost as much upside as active funds.

In fact, the professors found, the best index funds perform surprisingly closely to the best active funds, but at a lower cost to the investor. The worst active funds perform far worse than the worst index funds–even before management fees.

The findings topple the conventional wisdom that only actively managed funds stand a chance of beating the market. While active-fund managers often measure their success against that of passive funds, the data show investors who are risk averse would do better to choose passive funds over more expensive active ones.

More adventurous investors, of course, will always be tempted by what's cooking in actively managed funds. But overall, investing in plain index funds is as good a meal at a lower price.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom.

Alan D. Crane and Kevin Crotty are associate professors of finance at the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Houston space co. secures $4.8B NASA contract to provide communications, navigation services

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Houston-based space exploration, infrastructure, and services company Intuitive Machines has snagged a deal with NASA that could be worth more than $4 billion.

Under the contract, Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: LUNR, LUNRW) will supply communication and navigation services for missions in the “near space” region, which extends from the earth’s surface to beyond the moon.

The five-year deal includes an option to add five years to the contract. In total, the contract could be worth $4.82 billion. The initial round of NASA funding runs from October 2024 through September 2029.

“This contract marks an inflection point in Intuitive Machines’ leadership in space communications and navigation,” Steve Altemus, CEO of Intuitive Machines, says in a news release.

Under the deal, the company will deploy lunar relay satellites and provide communication and navigation services that play a role in NASA’s Artemis campaign to establish a long-term presence on the moon.

A highlight of the contract is the debut of Intuitive Machines’ lunar satellite constellation, a service that the company “believes is a strategic element in its vision to commercialize lunar activities.” The constellation will deliver data and transmission services and enable autonomous operations.

Earlier this month, Intuitive Machines secured its fourth contract with NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services, or CLPS, program. The $116.9 million agreement will task Intuitive Machines with delivering six science and technology payloads, which will include one European Space Agency-led drill suite to the Moon’s South Pole.

Additionally in August, Intuitive Machines signed a deal with Houston-based launch services company SEOPS to offer lunar rideshare services. Under the deal, Intuitive Machines will enable SEOPS to deliver customers' payloads to the surface of the moon, as well as to Lagrange points and geostationary transfer orbits.

Chevron names inaugural cohort of Houston energy innovators

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Anew program from Rice University and Chevron has named its inaugural cohort.

Funded by Chevron, the Chevron Energy Graduate Fellowship will provide $10,000 each to 10 Rice graduate students for the current academic year, which supports research in energy-related fields.

The Rice Sustainability Institute (RSI) hosted the event to introduce the inaugural cohort of the Rice Chevron Energy Graduate Fellowship at the Ralph S. O’Connor Building for Engineering and Science. Director of the RSI and the W. Maurice Ewing Professor in Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Carrie Masiello presented each fellow with a certificate during the ceremony.

“This fellowship supports students working on a wide range of topics related to scalable innovations in energy production that will lead to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions,” Masiello says in a news release. “It’s important that we recognize the importance of intellectual diversity to the kind of problem-solving we have to do as we accomplish the energy transition.”

The work of the students focuses on creating "real-world, scalable solutions to transform the energy landscape,” per the Rice release. Recipients of the fellowship will research solutions to energy challenges that include producing eco-friendly hydrogen alternatives to fossil fuels and recycling lithium-ion batteries.

Some of the fellows' work will focus on renewable fuels and carbon-capture technologies, biological systems to sequester carbon dioxide, and the potential of soil organic carbon sequestration on agricultural land if we remove the additionality constraint. Xi Chen, a doctoral student in materials science and nanoengineering, will use microwave-assisted techniques to recycle lithium-ion batteries sustainably.

Rice President Reginald DesRoches began the event by stressing the importance of collaboration. Ramamoorthy Ramesh, executive vice president for research at Rice, echoed that statement appearing via Zoom to applaud the efforts of doing what is right for the planet and having a partner in Chevron.

“I’m excited to support emerging leaders like you all in this room, who are focused on scalable, innovative solutions because the world needs them,” Chris Powers, vice president of carbon capture, utilization and storage and emerging at Chevron New Energies and a Rice alum, says at the event. “Innovation and collaboration across sectors and borders will be key to unlocking the full potential of lower carbon energies, and it’s groups like you, our newest Chevron Fellows, that can help move the needle when it comes to translating, or evolving, the energy landscape for the future.”

To see a full list of fellows, click here.

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This article originally ran on EnergyCapital.

New AI program powered by Mark Cuban opens applications for Houston students

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The Mark Cuban Foundation is partnering with digital consultant company Perficient’s Houston office to bring a one-of-its-kind, free artificial intelligence camp to high school students in Houston.

Applications, which are open now online, will close September 30.

“With the proliferation of AI, it’s more important than ever to increase AI education – especially among today’s youth,” Bill Davis, senior vice president at Perficient, says in a news release.

The curriculum will focus on the latest developments in the world of AI and Generative AI. The camp — held at Perficient’s Houston office on November 2, 9 and 16 — will provide students with necessary tools and technologies to help inspire a new generation of AI users and professionals. The camp aims to help underserved high school students with a focus on recruiting students of color, first generation college students, girls, and those from lower to moderate income households.

“As AI continues to become an undeniable force in all of our lives, it’s crucial that we open the door to this knowledge, especially to young people who want to explore it,” Cuban says in the release. “While technology expands and becomes more advanced, it becomes more critical that we ensure our students are prepared when they apply for schools or jobs in the future. Thanks to our work with Perficient, the bootcamp will offer an avenue to explore this fascinating field of technology to any student, no matter their means.”

Students can select from six tracks in the course that include healthcare, arts and entertainment, business and entrepreneurship, computer science, sports science, or education and career readiness. The AI Bootcamps are introductory and accessible to students in ninth through 12th grade with an interest in technology without any prior computer science experience. Transportation, resources and food will be provided.

As classes like STEM increase in popularity more programs have been created to help increase interest. More than 233,000 high school students in Texas took Career and Technical Education courses focused on STEM from 2020-2021.

“We’re proud to partner with the Mark Cuban Foundation to educate the next generation of technology leaders, mentoring students in AI, and ensuring the future of STEM,” Davis said in a news release.

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