Forecasting retail sales just got smarter, thanks to Google searches

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Search trends predict future retail revenue up to three quarters in advance. Photo via Pexels

Imagine being able to predict the future of retail sales — not with months-old economic reports, but with real-time digital breadcrumbs left behind by consumers. Thanks to new research from K. Ramesh (Rice Business) and Gary Lind (University of Pittsburgh), that future is already here.

Key findings

  • Search trends predict future retail revenue — up to three quarters ahead.
  • Markets don’t fully price in search-based insights, especially before earnings announcements.
  • Trading strategies using search data outperform traditional asset-pricing models by 2–3%.
  • Analysts often underuse this data, resulting in predictable forecast errors.
  • At the macro level, search trends closely track — and often lead — official retail sales and GDP.

Their study shows that Google search trends are powerful predictors of consumer demand, capable of forecasting U.S. retail sales up to three quarters in advance. The implications span industries and audiences — from Wall Street traders to Main Street retailers, and from data-driven CFOs to curious business students.

A smarter, faster crystal ball for retail demand

Retail sales drive nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), making them one of the most important indicators of economic health. Yet traditional forecasting relies heavily on backward-looking data and broad economic indicators. Ramesh and Lind’s work offers a leap forward: search data from Google Trends — publicly available and easy to use — can offer a faster, more precise signal of where sales are headed.

“If you want to understand consumer demand,” says Ramesh, the Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Rice Business, “look at what people are searching for — not just what companies report after the fact. These digital footprints can tell us where revenue is going, often before the market catches up.”

This low-cost approach stands in stark contrast to expensive alternatives, such as satellite images of parking lots, in-store foot traffic from mobile data, or retail scanner feeds — tools often reserved for hedge funds and large institutional investors. Google Trends offers a scalable, accessible option for anyone seeking insight into consumer behavior.

Why this matters for investors and analysts

The researchers analyzed search patterns for nearly 200 publicly traded U.S. retail companies between 2004 and 2019. They found that firms with rising search volumes tend to report higher revenues — often well before analysts or investors react.

In fact, investment strategies built around these trends earned 2–3% higher returns than traditional models would predict. And most of these gains were concentrated around earnings announcements — a sign that markets were slow to recognize what search data had already revealed.

The advantage is even more striking for companies that fly under Wall Street’s radar. For firms with limited analyst coverage, the predictive power of search data on stock performance was more than 80% stronger.

A new tool for analysts — if they’ll use it

Despite the clear signal in the data, the study finds that analysts routinely fail to incorporate search-based insights into their forecasts. That gap translates into missed revenue predictions and market inefficiencies — which sophisticated investors can exploit.

“The search data are out there,” says Lind, a Rice Business Ph.D. ’19 graduate now on faculty at Pitt Business. “They’re public, powerful, and free. Analysts who ignore them are missing an opportunity.”

The impact of this research extends well beyond equity markets. By aggregating Google search data across the retail sector, the authors found strong alignment with U.S. Census retail sales figures and GDP trends. In other words, these digital signals reflect not just firm-level interest, but macroeconomic momentum.

A data wake-up call

This makes search trends a potentially valuable early-warning system for policymakers, central banks, and anyone responsible for interpreting the economic landscape. During volatile or uncertain periods, such tools could offer precious foresight into shifting consumer behavior.

In a digital era where consumers research before they shop — whether online or in-store — it’s no surprise that their Google queries leave valuable clues. What’s surprising is how often businesses, investors, and even economists still overlook them, Ramesh says. “Search data is a goldmine. And it's just sitting there, waiting to be used.”

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom.

Lind and Ramesh, “Using Internet Search Data to Predict Aggregate Retail Sales and Enhance Firm-Level Revenue Expectations,” Contemporary Accounting Research (April 2025): 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.13043.

There's no crystal ball, but this researcher from Rice University is trying to see if some metrics work for economic forecasting. Photo via Getty Images

Houston researcher tries to crack the code on the Fed's data to determine economic outlook

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Research by Rice Business Professor K. Ramesh shows that the Fed appears to harvest qualitative information from the accounting disclosures that all public companies must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

These SEC filings are typically used by creditors, investors and others to make firm-level investing and financing decisions; and while they include business leaders’ sense of economic trends, they are never intended to guide macro-level policy decisions. But in a recent paper (“Externalities of Accounting Disclosures: Evidence from the Federal Reserve”), Ramesh and his colleagues provide persuasive evidence that the Fed nonetheless uses the qualitative information in SEC filings to help forecast the growth of macroeconomic variables like GDP and unemployment.

According to Ramesh, the study was made possible thanks to a decision the SEC made several years ago. The commission stores the reports submitted by public companies in an online database called EDGAR and records the IP address of any party that accesses them. More than a decade ago, the SEC began making partially anonymized forms of those IP addresses available to the public. But researchers eventually figured out how to deanonymize the addresses, which is precisely what Ramesh and his colleagues did in this study.

"We were able to reverse engineer and identify those IP addresses that belonged to Federal Reserve staff," Ramesh says.

The team ultimately assembled a data set containing more than 169,000 filings accessed by Fed staff between 2005 and 2015. They quickly realized that the Fed was interested only in filings submitted by a select group of industry leaders and financial institutions.

But if Ramesh and his colleagues now had a better idea of precisely which bellwether firms the Fed focused on, they still had no way of knowing exactly what Fed staffers had gleaned from the material they accessed. So the team decided to employ a measure called "tone" that captures the overall sentiment of a piece of text – whether positive, negative, or neutral.

Building on previous research that had identified a set of words with negatively toned financial reports, Ramesh and his colleagues examined the tone of all the SEC filings accessed by Fed staff between one meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) and the next. The FOMC sets interest rates and guides monetary policy, and its meetings provide an opportunity for Fed officials to discuss growth forecasts and announce policy decisions.

The researchers then examined the Fed's growth forecasts to see if there was a relationship between the tone of the documents that Fed staff examined in the period between FOMC meetings and the forecasts they produced in advance of those meetings.

The team found close correlations between the tone of the reports accessed by the Fed and the agency’s forecasts of GDP, unemployment, housing starts and industrial production. The more negative the filings accessed prior to an FOMC meeting, for example, the gloomier the GDP forecast; the more positive the filings, the brighter the unemployment forecast.

Ramesh and his colleagues also compared the Fed's forecasts with those of the Society of Professional Forecasters (SPF), whose members span academia and industry. Intriguingly, the researchers found that while the errors in the SPF's forecasts could be attributed to the absence of the tonal information culled from the SEC filings, the errors in the Fed’s forecasts could not. This suggests both that the Fed was collecting qualitative information that the SPF was not—and that the agency was making remarkably efficient use of it.

"They weren’t leaving anything on the table," Ramesh says.

Having solved one mystery, Ramesh would like to focus on another; namely, how does the Fed identify bellwether firms in the first place?

Unfortunately, the SEC no longer makes IP address data publicly available, which means that Ramesh and his colleagues can no longer study which companies the Fed is most interested in. Nonetheless, Ramesh hopes to use the data they have already collected to build a model that can accurately predict which firms the Fed is most likely to follow. That would allow the team to continue studying the same companies that the Fed does, and, he says, “maybe come up with a way to track those firms in order to understand how the economy is going to move.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from K. Ramesh is Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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This Houston airport saw sharp passenger decline in 2025, study shows

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A new global airport travel study has revealed passenger traffic at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (HOU) sharply decreased from 2024 to 2025.

The analysis from travel magazine LocalsInsider examined recently released data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), the U.S. International Trade Association, and a nationwide survey to determine the following American traveler habits: The most popular U.S. and international destinations, emerging hotspots, and destinations on the decline. The study covered passenger travel trends from January through July 2025.

In the report's ranking of the 40 U.S. airports with the sharpest declines in passenger traffic, HOU ranked 13th on the list.

About 4.26 million arrivals were reported at HOU from January through July 2024, compared to about 3.96 million during the same seven-month period in 2025. According to the data, that's a significant 7.1 percent drop in passenger traffic year-over-year, or a loss of 300,974 passengers.

"As travelers chase new hotspots, some destinations are seeing reduced passenger traffic whether due to rising costs, shifting airline schedules, or evolving traveler preferences, some destinations are seeing a decrease in visitors," the report's author wrote.

It appears most major Texas airports had drops in passenger traffic from 2024 to 2025. Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL) saw the worst in the state, with a dramatic 7.4 percent dip in arrivals. DAL also ranked 11th on the list of U.S. airports with the steepest declines in passenger traffic.

More than 5.13 million arrivals were reported at DAL from January through July 2024, compared to over 4.75 million during the same seven-month period in 2025.

This is how passenger traffic has fallen at other major Texas airports from 2024 to 2025:

Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS):

  • 6,107,597 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2024
  • 5,828,396 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2025
  • -4.6 percent – Year-over-year passenger change
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW):
  • 23,830,017 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2024
  • 23,251,302 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2025
  • -2.4 percent – Year-over-year passenger change

San Antonio International Airport (SAT):

  • 2,937,870 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2024
  • 2,836,774 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2025
  • -3.4 percent – Year-over-year passenger change
El Paso International Airport (ELP):
  • 1,094,431 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2024
  • 1,076,845 – Passenger arrivals from January to July 2025
  • -1.6 percent – Year-over-year passenger change
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This story originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

NASA names new chief astronaut based in Houston

new hire

NASA has a new chief astronaut. Scott Tingle, stationed at the space agency’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, assumed the post Nov. 10.

Tingle succeeds NASA astronaut Joe Acaba, who had been chief astronaut since February 2023. Acaba now works on the staff of the Johnson Space Center’s director.

As chief astronaut, Tingle runs NASA’s Astronaut Office. His job includes developing astronauts’ flight crew operations and assigning crews for space missions, such as Artemis missions to the moon.

Tingle, a former captain in the Navy, was named a NASA astronaut candidate in 2009. He has logged over 4,500 flight hours in more than 50 aircraft.

Tingle was a flight engineer aboard the International Space Station, where he spent 168 days in orbit during two expeditions that launched in December 2017. Since returning to Earth, he has held various roles in the Astronaut Office, including mission support, technical leadership and crew readiness.

Before joining NASA, Tingle worked in El Segundo, California, on the technical staff of The Aerospace Corp., a nonprofit that supports U.S. space programs.

Tingle recalls expressing his desire to be an astronaut when he was 10 years old. It took him four tries to be accepted by NASA as an astronaut candidate.

“The first time I figured it was kind of too early. The second application, they sent out some feelers, and that was about it. Put in my third application, and got a couple of calls, but it didn’t quite happen,” Tingle said in an article published on the website of Purdue University, his alma mater.

ExxonMobil officially pauses plans for $7B Baytown hydrogen plant

Change of Plans

As anticipated, Spring-based oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has officially paused plans to build a low-hydrogen plant in Baytown, Chairman and CEO Darren Woods told Reuters in late November.

“The suspension of the project, which had already experienced delays, reflects a wider slowdown in efforts by traditional oil and gas firms to transition to cleaner energy sources as many of the initiatives struggle to turn a profit,” Reuters reported.

Woods signaled during ExxonMobil’s second-quarter earnings call that the company was weighing whether it would move forward with the proposed $7 billion plant.

The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act created a new 10-year incentive, the 45V tax credit, for production of clean hydrogen. But under President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the window for starting construction of low-carbon hydrogen projects that qualify for the tax credit has narrowed. The Inflation Reduction Act mandated that construction start by 2033. But the Big Beautiful Bill switched the construction start time to early 2028.

“While our project can meet this timeline, we’re concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.

Woods had said ExxonMobil was figuring out whether a combination of the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture projects and the revised 45V tax credit would enable a broader market for low-carbon hydrogen.

“If we can’t see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won’t move forward with the [Baytown] project,” Woods said.

“We knew that helping to establish a brand-new product and a brand-new market initially driven by government policy would not be easy or advance in a straight line,” he added.

ExxonMobil announced in 2022 that it would build the low-carbon hydrogen plant at its refining and petrochemical complex in Baytown. The company has said the plant is slated to go online in 2027 and 2028.

ExxonMobil had said the Baytown plant would produce up to 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day made from natural gas, and capture and store more than 98 percent of the associated carbon dioxide. The plant would have been capable of storing as much as 10 million metric tons of CO2 per year.

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This article originally appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com; it was updated to include new information about the plant in December 2025.

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