Forecasting retail sales just got smarter, thanks to Google searches

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Search trends predict future retail revenue up to three quarters in advance. Photo via Pexels

Imagine being able to predict the future of retail sales — not with months-old economic reports, but with real-time digital breadcrumbs left behind by consumers. Thanks to new research from K. Ramesh (Rice Business) and Gary Lind (University of Pittsburgh), that future is already here.

Key findings

  • Search trends predict future retail revenue — up to three quarters ahead.
  • Markets don’t fully price in search-based insights, especially before earnings announcements.
  • Trading strategies using search data outperform traditional asset-pricing models by 2–3%.
  • Analysts often underuse this data, resulting in predictable forecast errors.
  • At the macro level, search trends closely track — and often lead — official retail sales and GDP.

Their study shows that Google search trends are powerful predictors of consumer demand, capable of forecasting U.S. retail sales up to three quarters in advance. The implications span industries and audiences — from Wall Street traders to Main Street retailers, and from data-driven CFOs to curious business students.

A smarter, faster crystal ball for retail demand

Retail sales drive nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), making them one of the most important indicators of economic health. Yet traditional forecasting relies heavily on backward-looking data and broad economic indicators. Ramesh and Lind’s work offers a leap forward: search data from Google Trends — publicly available and easy to use — can offer a faster, more precise signal of where sales are headed.

“If you want to understand consumer demand,” says Ramesh, the Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Rice Business, “look at what people are searching for — not just what companies report after the fact. These digital footprints can tell us where revenue is going, often before the market catches up.”

This low-cost approach stands in stark contrast to expensive alternatives, such as satellite images of parking lots, in-store foot traffic from mobile data, or retail scanner feeds — tools often reserved for hedge funds and large institutional investors. Google Trends offers a scalable, accessible option for anyone seeking insight into consumer behavior.

Why this matters for investors and analysts

The researchers analyzed search patterns for nearly 200 publicly traded U.S. retail companies between 2004 and 2019. They found that firms with rising search volumes tend to report higher revenues — often well before analysts or investors react.

In fact, investment strategies built around these trends earned 2–3% higher returns than traditional models would predict. And most of these gains were concentrated around earnings announcements — a sign that markets were slow to recognize what search data had already revealed.

The advantage is even more striking for companies that fly under Wall Street’s radar. For firms with limited analyst coverage, the predictive power of search data on stock performance was more than 80% stronger.

A new tool for analysts — if they’ll use it

Despite the clear signal in the data, the study finds that analysts routinely fail to incorporate search-based insights into their forecasts. That gap translates into missed revenue predictions and market inefficiencies — which sophisticated investors can exploit.

“The search data are out there,” says Lind, a Rice Business Ph.D. ’19 graduate now on faculty at Pitt Business. “They’re public, powerful, and free. Analysts who ignore them are missing an opportunity.”

The impact of this research extends well beyond equity markets. By aggregating Google search data across the retail sector, the authors found strong alignment with U.S. Census retail sales figures and GDP trends. In other words, these digital signals reflect not just firm-level interest, but macroeconomic momentum.

A data wake-up call

This makes search trends a potentially valuable early-warning system for policymakers, central banks, and anyone responsible for interpreting the economic landscape. During volatile or uncertain periods, such tools could offer precious foresight into shifting consumer behavior.

In a digital era where consumers research before they shop — whether online or in-store — it’s no surprise that their Google queries leave valuable clues. What’s surprising is how often businesses, investors, and even economists still overlook them, Ramesh says. “Search data is a goldmine. And it's just sitting there, waiting to be used.”

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom.

Lind and Ramesh, “Using Internet Search Data to Predict Aggregate Retail Sales and Enhance Firm-Level Revenue Expectations,” Contemporary Accounting Research (April 2025): 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.13043.

There's no crystal ball, but this researcher from Rice University is trying to see if some metrics work for economic forecasting. Photo via Getty Images

Houston researcher tries to crack the code on the Fed's data to determine economic outlook

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Research by Rice Business Professor K. Ramesh shows that the Fed appears to harvest qualitative information from the accounting disclosures that all public companies must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

These SEC filings are typically used by creditors, investors and others to make firm-level investing and financing decisions; and while they include business leaders’ sense of economic trends, they are never intended to guide macro-level policy decisions. But in a recent paper (“Externalities of Accounting Disclosures: Evidence from the Federal Reserve”), Ramesh and his colleagues provide persuasive evidence that the Fed nonetheless uses the qualitative information in SEC filings to help forecast the growth of macroeconomic variables like GDP and unemployment.

According to Ramesh, the study was made possible thanks to a decision the SEC made several years ago. The commission stores the reports submitted by public companies in an online database called EDGAR and records the IP address of any party that accesses them. More than a decade ago, the SEC began making partially anonymized forms of those IP addresses available to the public. But researchers eventually figured out how to deanonymize the addresses, which is precisely what Ramesh and his colleagues did in this study.

"We were able to reverse engineer and identify those IP addresses that belonged to Federal Reserve staff," Ramesh says.

The team ultimately assembled a data set containing more than 169,000 filings accessed by Fed staff between 2005 and 2015. They quickly realized that the Fed was interested only in filings submitted by a select group of industry leaders and financial institutions.

But if Ramesh and his colleagues now had a better idea of precisely which bellwether firms the Fed focused on, they still had no way of knowing exactly what Fed staffers had gleaned from the material they accessed. So the team decided to employ a measure called "tone" that captures the overall sentiment of a piece of text – whether positive, negative, or neutral.

Building on previous research that had identified a set of words with negatively toned financial reports, Ramesh and his colleagues examined the tone of all the SEC filings accessed by Fed staff between one meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) and the next. The FOMC sets interest rates and guides monetary policy, and its meetings provide an opportunity for Fed officials to discuss growth forecasts and announce policy decisions.

The researchers then examined the Fed's growth forecasts to see if there was a relationship between the tone of the documents that Fed staff examined in the period between FOMC meetings and the forecasts they produced in advance of those meetings.

The team found close correlations between the tone of the reports accessed by the Fed and the agency’s forecasts of GDP, unemployment, housing starts and industrial production. The more negative the filings accessed prior to an FOMC meeting, for example, the gloomier the GDP forecast; the more positive the filings, the brighter the unemployment forecast.

Ramesh and his colleagues also compared the Fed's forecasts with those of the Society of Professional Forecasters (SPF), whose members span academia and industry. Intriguingly, the researchers found that while the errors in the SPF's forecasts could be attributed to the absence of the tonal information culled from the SEC filings, the errors in the Fed’s forecasts could not. This suggests both that the Fed was collecting qualitative information that the SPF was not—and that the agency was making remarkably efficient use of it.

"They weren’t leaving anything on the table," Ramesh says.

Having solved one mystery, Ramesh would like to focus on another; namely, how does the Fed identify bellwether firms in the first place?

Unfortunately, the SEC no longer makes IP address data publicly available, which means that Ramesh and his colleagues can no longer study which companies the Fed is most interested in. Nonetheless, Ramesh hopes to use the data they have already collected to build a model that can accurately predict which firms the Fed is most likely to follow. That would allow the team to continue studying the same companies that the Fed does, and, he says, “maybe come up with a way to track those firms in order to understand how the economy is going to move.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from K. Ramesh is Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Houston universities climb the ranks on annual list of most patents issued

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The University of Houston and Rice University have claimed spots on the National Academy of Inventor's Top 100 U.S. Universities Granted Utility Patents.

The list is based on data obtained from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office and ranks U.S. academic institutions that are advancing innovation by the number of utility patents issued in the prior year.

Utility patents are among the world’s most valuable assets because they give inventors exclusive commercial rights to produce and use their technology. The universities ranked on the list collectively hold nearly 6,500 patents.

“In the ever-evolving innovation landscape, it is imperative that the U.S. is remaining competitive and at the forefront of today’s emerging research and technologies,” Paul R. Sanberg, president of the NAI, said in a news release. “Ensuring the security of intellectual property through patenting is a crucial component to this and allows those innovations to be effectively moved to market, where they can create valuable societal and economic impact. The Top 100 U.S. list celebrates U.S. universities and their inventive staff and faculty for their dedication in ensuring their innovations and IP are protected.”

The University of Houston System came in at No. 62 with 34 patents, and Rice University claimed the No. 68 spot with 30 patents.

Both universities climbed up the rankings this year. Last year, UH was ranked No. 63 with 27 patents. Rice climbed an impressive 26 spots this year, after ranking No. 94 with 14 patents issued in 2023.

“Granted U.S. utility patents can tremendously help in commercializing the technologies covered by such patents by attracting industry investment and commercial partners on a global level,” Neha Malik, assistant director for intellectual property management in Rice's Office of Technology Transfer, said in a release. “Advancing in this list memorializes Rice’s commitment to support research programs of Rice faculty by generating a path for the university to bring its research to the marketplace.”

Other Texas universities on the list include:

  • No. 3 University of Texas System (234 patents)
  • No. 35 The Texas A&M System (61 patents)
  • No. 73 Texas Tech University System (25 patents)
  • No. 80 Baylor University (20 patents)

The University of California (540 patents) claimed the No. 1 spot again this year, followed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (295 patents), which also placed second for 2024.

First large-scale affordable housing project of 3D-printed homes rises in Houston

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What’s being promoted as the world’s first large-scale affordable housing development built using 3D technology is taking shape in Houston.

Houston-based 3D construction company HiveASMBLD has teamed up with Houston-based Cole Klein Builders and the City of Houston on the Zuri Gardens project. Located near Hobby Airport on Martindale Road, the first 3D-printed home at Zuri Gardens is set to be completed in October.

“Zuri Gardens was born from the frustration of watching hardworking families get priced out of safe, resilient housing. We knew there had to be a better way — and with this project, we’re proving that there is,” says Vanessa Cole, co-founder of Cole Klein Builders.

“By combining visionary design, advanced construction technology, and powerful partnerships, we’re building more than just homes — we’re creating a blueprint for the future of equitable homeownership in Houston and beyond.”

The development is being created for households earning up to 120 percent of the median income in the Houston metro area. For a four-member household in the Houston area, the 120 percent limit in 2025 is $121,300, as set by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The 13-acre Zuri Gardens development will feature 80 energy-efficient homes averaging 1,360 square feet. Prices will be in the mid to high $200s. The homes will qualify for up to $125,000 in down payment assistance from the City of Houston.

HiveASMBLD will print two different home designs, each with two-bedroom and two-and-a-half bathroom configurations, along with an office/flex space and a covered patio.

Zuri Gardens home model Houston Courtesy rendering

“The community we envision for Zuri Gardens is modern, safe, and one that residents will be proud to call home. When completed using HiveASMBLD’s innovative technology, this 3D-printed multifamily community will exemplify the future of residential affordable living,” says Timothy Lankau, founder and co-CEO of HiveASMBLD.

Developments like Zuri Gardens are popping up around the country.

“3D-printed homes are revolutionizing the construction industry by making home builds faster, cheaper, and more sustainable,” according to The Zebra, an Austin-based insurance marketplace. “In less than 24 hours, 3D printers can print the foundation and walls for a small home at a fraction of the cost of typical construction.”

U.S. News & World Report explains that unlike a traditional home, a 3D-printed home is printed in place, “just like you’d print a knickknack on your home 3D printer. Layer by layer, proprietary concrete blends are used to build the wall systems of the home in any type of design that a builder can imagine.”

Texas is home to several trailblazing 3D-printed projects.

In the U.S., the first 3D-printed home was built in 2018 in Austin, and the first 3D-printed multistory home was completed in 2023 in Harris County’s Spring Branch neighborhood. Meanwhile, the world’s largest neighborhood of 3D-printed homes is located in the Austin suburb of Georgetown.

Grand View Research predicts the global market for 3D-printed construction will approach $4.2 billion by 2030.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston tech company secures $450M NASA contract

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NASA’s Johnson Space Center awarded Houston-based aerospace technology and engineering services company Barrios Technology the Mission Technical Integration Contract (MTIC).

The two-year contract is worth $450 million and will begin Oct. 1, 2025.

Barrios will provide technical and management support to some of NASA’s human spaceflight programs, which include the Orion and Gateway programs, the International Space Station (ISS) and possibly more human spaceflight initiatives.

The contract represents a continuation of Barrios’ Human Space Flight Technical Integration Contract (HSFTIC), which has been in effect since 2020.

“We are incredibly proud to have been selected by NASA to continue working side by side with them in shaping the future of human space exploration,” Kelly Page, president of Barrios Technology, said in a news release.

The contract also includes support for program, business, configuration and data management, information technology, systems engineering and integration, mission integration, safety and mission assurance, and operations according to Barrios.

Barrios will be supported by subcontractors ARES Technical Services Corp., Booz Allen Hamilton, Intuitive Machines, Summit Technologies & Solutions, and TechTrans International (TTI).

“This award is a testament to the passion, hard work, and extraordinary value that our Barrios family brings every single day,” Page added in the release. “This is not just another contract award—it is the continuation of a generational commitment to our NASA customers and their critical missions.”

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