How to evaluate an IPO, according to Houston researchers

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In emerging markets, pricing — not reputation — drives the partnership between underwriter and IPO. Photo via business.rice.edu

Many investors assume they can judge the strength of an IPO based on the reputation of the underwriter supporting it.

However, a recent study by Rice Business professors Anthea Zhang and Haiyang Li, along with Jin Chen (Nottingham University) and Jing Jin (University of International Business and Economics), proves this is only sometimes true — depending on how mature the stock exchange is.

Getting your company listed on the stock market is a big step. It opens new opportunities to raise money and grow the business. But it also means facing increased regulations, reporting requirements and public scrutiny.

To successfully launch an initial public offering (IPO), most companies hire “underwriters” — financial services firms — to guide them through the complex process. Because underwriters have expertise in valuations, filing paperwork and promoting to investors, they play a crucial role in ushering companies onto the market.

In well-established markets like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), an underwriter’s reputation carries immense weight with investors. Top-tier banks like Goldman Sachs have built their reputations by rigorously vetting and partnering with only the most promising companies. When Goldman Sachs takes on the role of underwriter, it sends a strong signal to potential investors that the IPO has met stringent standards. After all, a firm of Goldman’s caliber would not risk tarnishing its hard-earned reputation by associating with subpar companies.

Conversely, IPO firms recognize the value of having a prestigious underwriter. Such an association lends credibility and prestige, enhancing the company’s appeal. In a mature market environment, the underwriter’s reputation correlates to the IPO’s potential, benefiting both the investors who seek opportunities and the companies wanting to make a strong public debut.

However, assumptions about an underwriter’s reputation only hold true if the stock exchange is mature. In emerging or less developed markets, the reputation of an underwriter has no bearing on the quality or potential of the IPO it pairs with.

In an emerging market, the study finds, investors should pay attention to how much the underwriter charges a given IPO for their services. The higher the fee, the riskier it would be to invest in the IPO firm.

To arrive at their findings, the researchers leveraged a unique opportunity in China’s ChiNext Exchange. When ChiNext opened in 2009, regulations were low. Banks faced little consequence for underwriting a substandard IPO. Numerous IPOs on ChiNext were discovered to have engaged in accounting malpractice and inaccurate reporting, resulting in financial losses for investors and eroding confidence in the capital markets. So, for 18 months during 2012-2013, ChiNext closed. When it reopened, exchange reforms were stricter. And suddenly, underwriter reputation became a more reliable marker of IPO quality.

“Our research shows how priorities evolve as markets mature,” Zhang says. “In a new or developing exchange without established regulations, underwriter fees paid by IPO firms dictate the underwriter-company partnership. But as markets reform and mature, reputation and quality become the driving factors.”

The study makes a critical intervention in the understanding of market mechanisms. The findings matter for companies, investors and regulators across societies, highlighting how incentives shift, markets evolve and economic systems work.

The research opens the door to other areas of inquiry. For example, future studies could track relationships between underwriters and companies to reveal the long-term impacts of reputation, fees and rule changes. Research along these lines could help identify best practices benefiting all market participants.

“In the future, researchers could explore how cultural norms, regulations and investor behaviors influence IPO success,” says Li. “Long-term studies on specific underwriter-firm pairs could reveal insights into investor confidence and market stability. Understanding these dynamics can benefit companies, investors and policymakers alike.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Yan “Anthea” Zhang, the Fayez Sarofim Vanguard Professor of Management – Strategic Management at Rice Business, and Haiyang Li, the H. Joe Nelson III Professor of Management – Strategic Management at Rice Business.

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People tend to have stronger reactions to unexpected news, so news that meets the public’s expectations of a company can go unnoticed. Photo via Getty Images

Houston research: How best to deliver unexpected news as a company

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According to Forbes, the volume of mergers and acquisitions in 2021 was the highest on record, and 2022 has already seen a number of major consolidation attempts. Microsoft’s acquisition of video game company Activision Blizzard was the biggest gaming industry deal in history, according to Reuters. JetBlue recently won the bid over Frontier Airlines to merge with Spirit Airlines. And, perhaps most notably, Elon Musk recently backed out of an attempt to acquire Twitter.

It can be hard to predict how markets will react to such high-profile deals (and, in Elon Musk and Twitter’s case, whether or not the deal will even pan out). But Rice Business Professor Haiyang Li and Professor Emeritus Robert Hoskisson, along with Jing Jin of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, have found that companies can take advantage of these deals to buffer the effects of other news.

The researchers looked at 7,575 mergers and acquisitions from 2001 to 2015, with a roughly half-and-half split between positive and negative stock market reactions. They found that when there’s a negative reaction to a deal, companies have two strategies for dealing with it. If it’s a small negative reaction, companies will release positive news announcements in an attempt to soften the blow. But when the reaction is really bad, companies actually tend to announce more negative news afterward. Specifically, companies released 18% less positive news and 52% more negative news after a bad market reaction.

This may seem counterintuitive, but there’s a method to the madness, and it all has to do with managing expectations. If people are lukewarm on a company due to a merger or acquisition, it’s possible to sway public opinion with unrelated good news. When the backlash is severe, though, a little bit of good PR won’t be enough to change people’s minds. In this case, companies release more bad news because it’s one of their best chances to do so without making waves in the future. If people already think poorly of a company due to a recent deal, more bad news isn’t great, but it doesn’t come as a surprise, either. Therefore, it’s easier to ignore.

It might make more sense to just keep quiet if the market reaction to a deal is bad, and this study found that most companies do. However, this only applies when releasing more news would make a mildly bad situation worse. If things are already bad enough that the company can’t recover with good news, it can still make the best out of a bad situation by offloading more bad news when the damage will be minimal. Companies are legally obligated to disclose business-related news or information with shareholders and with the public. If it’s bad news, they like to share it when the public is already upset about a deal, instead of releasing the negative news when there are no other distractions. In this case the additional negative news is likely to get more play in the media when disclosed by itself.

But what happens when people get excited about a merger or acquisition? In these cases, it also depends on how strong the sentiment is. If the public’s reaction is only minimally positive, companies may opt to release more good news in hopes of making the reaction stronger. When the market is already enthusiastic about the deal, though, companies won’t release more positive news. The researchers found that after an especially positive market reaction to a deal, companies indeed released 12% less positive news but 56% more negative news. Also, one could argue that the contrasting negative news makes the good news on the acquisition look even better. This may be important especially if the acquisition is a significant strategic move.

There are several reasons why a company wouldn’t continue to release positive news after a good press day and strong market reaction. First of all, they want to make sure that a rise in market price is attributed to the deal alone, and not any irrelevant news. A positive reaction to a deal also gives companies another opportunity to disclose bad news at a time when it will get less attention. If the bad news does get attention, the chances are better that stakeholders will go easy on them — a little bit of bad press is forgivable when the good news outshines it.

Companies may choose to release no news after a positive reaction to a merger or acquisition, the same way they might opt to stay quiet after backlash. They’re less likely to release positive news when stakeholders are already happy, preferring to save that news for the next time they need it, either to offset a negative reaction or strengthen a weak positive reaction.

Mergers and acquisitions can produce unpredictable market reactions, so it’s important for companies to be prepared for a variety of outcomes. In fact, Jin, Li and Hoskisson found that the steps taken by companies before deals were announced didn’t have much effect on the public’s reaction. They found that it’s more important for companies to make the best out of that reaction, whatever it turns out to be.

The researchers also found that, regardless of whether the market reaction was positive or negative, as long as the reaction was strong, companies could use the opportunity to hide smaller pieces of bad news in the shadow of a headline-making deal. Overall, the magnitude of the reaction mattered more than the type of reaction. People tend to have stronger reactions to unexpected news, though, so companies prefer to release negative news when market expectations are already low.

These findings are relevant beyond merger announcements, of course; they also point to strategies that could be useful in everyday communications. A key takeaway is that negative information is less upsetting when people already expect bad things — or when it comes after much bigger, and much better, news. Bad news is always hard to deliver, but this research gives us a few ways to soften the blow.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Jing Jin, Haiyang Li and Robert Hoskisson.

Firms looking to expand globally need to ensure that their organizational resources are adaptable to new markets. Getty Images

Houston startups planning to go global need to prioritize adaptability, researchers find

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When foreigners invest in emerging markets, the prospect for those markets' local businesses looks bright. The payoffs for a country's companies can range from injections of foreign capital to better managerial talent, technological sophistication and international know-how. But does foreign investment ever push local firms to venture into international projects of their own?

Rice Business professor Haiyang Li looked closely at the ripple effects of foreign investments, and concluded it all depends on the local businesses' adaptability. That — and their appetite for risk.

Together with Xiwei Yi of Peking University and Geng Cui of Lingan University, Hong Kong, Li launched a large-scale study of Chinese manufacturers to better understand how multinational investment in domestic companies influences the global market.

The subject was ripe for analysis. Over the past decade, more and more companies in China and other emerging markets have been testing the waters of direct investment in other countries in sectors as varied as food and beverages, apparel, electronics and transportation equipment.

Li's team hypothesized that these emerging market companies were leveraging benefits that foreign investment had ferried into their home markets. This investment, the researchers theorized, had brought in useful resources and skills, which helped ease the local companies into international business markets.

To confirm this, the team needed to test whether the converse was true: Might information gained from foreign investors actually dull a local firm's interest in branching out overseas? Maybe the risks of that type of venture — which are higher for firms in emerging markets — would seem too stark.

To find out, the researchers first vetted the literature on inward and outward investment activities. How, they wanted to know, did domestic firms interact with foreign players in the technology or product importing process? In equipment manufacturing? In franchising and licensing, mergers and acquisitions and activities such as setting up subsidiaries?

Working with a global research company, Li and his colleagues next surveyed 1,500 Chinese businesses in the food, clothing, electronics and vehicle industries. (Firms in finance, banking, natural resources and business services were ruled out because of their government ties, and also because such organizations usually use fewer resources, which made them harder to evaluate.)

Each company that took part in the survey rated how much they engaged with foreign investors in activities such as importing products and services or forming joint ventures. They also indicated if dealing with foreign direct investment had brought them foreign capital, advanced manufacturing know-how, managerial experience or competitive insight into overseas business.

The researchers also measured the "fungibility" of these firms' resources — in other words, how easily could their organizational, cultural and technological resources be adapted to various geographical settings?

Finally, managers rated how risk-prone they thought their firms were.

After Li and his coauthors processed the answers, they found several links between foreign investment in domestic firms and local companies' internationalization efforts.

First, there was a positive relationship between the local gains from foreign investment and a firm's interest in internationalization projects. While this effect was indirect, it was amplified when foreign investment gave a firm new capabilities that made it more adaptable. In other words, the Chinese companies whose contact with foreign multinationals made them more adaptable in general were better positioned to prosper in ventures abroad.

This stands to reason, the researchers note. That's because by its very nature foreign investment sparks awareness of new opportunities: every business trip, plant visit or negotiation with foreign partners is a hands-on lesson in international trade.

But the researchers also uncovered a significant downside to foreign investment for local Chinese firms. When a project was considered high-risk, such as a merger or establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary, the local firms were less prone to venture abroad. This adverse effect was worse for firms that labeled themselves risk-averse, probably because exposure to foreign investors only made the risks of internationalizing clearer.

These findings add important detail to the way foreign investment can affect their local partners' own international plans — for good and ill. Already, businesses in emerging markets are used to optimizing resources, wrangling diverse idioms and artisans and adapting logistically to get their products to market. That nimbleness, Li and his colleagues propose, should also be seen as a globalization tool. For businesses in emerging markets, the researchers conclude, day-to-day technical ability is actually less important than cultural and organizational flexibility — and applying lessons learned from foreign investors to their own projects abroad.

In other words, for firms in emerging markets, globalization is not just a path to new markets. It's a way to study interactions with foreign firms while on their home turf – and learn how to apply those lessons abroad.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom.

Haiyang Li is Area Coordinator and Professor of Strategic Management at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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10+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for October

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Editor's note: Healthcare and energy conferences headline this month's slate of innovation events in Houston. But there's also time for family-friendly gatherings and pickleball socials. Here’s what not to miss in October and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.

Oct. 2 — Joy in Medicine Initiative Symposium

The Houston Methodist Joy in Medicine Initiative Symposium will explore the power of connection in enhancing professional fulfillment for clinicians and healthcare teams, this year with the theme of "Forging New Paths: Leadership, Connection & Innovation to Sustain Joy in Medicine." Hear from Dr. Shlomit Schall, Houston Methodist Physician Organization president and CEO and chief physician executive; Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom; and Dr. Albert Wu, from Johns Hopkins, author of Therefore, Let us Rejoice: Sustaining Joy in Medicine. Stick around for a networking happy hour.

This event is Friday, Oct. 2, from 8:30 a.m.-4:30 p.m. at Thompson Houston on Allen Parkway. Find more information here.

Oct. 6-7 — Hydrogen Americas Summit and Exhibition

Hydrogen Americas delivers an unparalleled opportunity to explore how hydrogen integrates with CCUS and other energy solutions under the new U.S. and Americas energy paradigm. This event moves to Houston in 2026, providing unmatched access to industry leaders and opportunities. The summit will include CCUS-dedicated sessions integrated directly into the conference programming, providing deeper insights into carbon capture, utilization and storage. Look forward to networking opportunities to connect with global suppliers, regional developers and key policymakers.

This event begins Oct. 6 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

Oct. 6-7 — Annual Energy Summit — Energy, Risk, and Geopolitics

The 10th annual energy summit is co-hosted by Baker Botts and the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute. This year's summit, “Energy, Risk, and Geopolitics,” will explore how a changing geopolitical landscape and shifts in supply chain risks are impacting investment, innovation and market dynamics. The two-day program will include discussions spanning petroleum and LNG markets, critical minerals, electricity reliability, AI and power demand.

This event begins Oct. 6 at 7:30 am at James A Baker III Hall. The event will also be livestreamed. Register here.

Oct. 7 – Rockets Get You to Orbit. Culture Gets You to Stay

The Ion will host a morning discussion exploring humanity’s future in space. The event will feature Rick Tumlinson, author of Why Space? The Purpose of People; Scott Solomon, author of Becoming Martian; and David Alexander and Alexander Regier of Rice University’s new Space Humanities Initiative. The conversations will be moderated by EarthLight Foundation Director Junaid Mian.

This event is Wednesday, Oct. 7, from 8:30-11 a.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Oct. 8 — Greentown Labs’ Fall Pickleball Social

Greentown Labs hosts its fall social at Pickle Lab HTX this month. Enjoy friendly matches, networking and light bites. All skill sets are welcome.

This event is Thursday, Oct. 8, from 5:30-7:30 p.m. at Pickle Lab HTX. Register here.

Oct. 10 – Ion Family Tech Festival

Bring the whole family out to the second Ion Family Tech Festival. Kids will get to participate in hands-on STEAM workshops and learn more about STEAM-related careers.

This event is Saturday, Oct. 10, from 9 a.m.-12 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Oct. 13 – Mercury Fund Day at the Ion

Don’t miss the latest installment of Mercury Fund Day at the Ion, previously known as Software Day. The recurring monthly event features office hours (by application), a keynote and networking opportunities.

This event is Tuesday, Oct. 13, from 3:30-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Oct. 14 — Future of Global Energy Conference

This October, the sixth annual Future of Global Energy Conference kicks off, convening influential leaders from across energy, technology, finance and public policy who will come together to explore the forces defining the next era of global energy and Houston’s role in shaping it. Ryan Lance, Executive Chairman of ConocoPhillips and 2027 Chair of the Greater Houston Partnership’s Board of Directors, is the keynote speaker for this year’s conference, bringing a global perspective on rising demand, market volatility and Houston’s role in the next era of energy growth.

This event takes place Oct. 14 at the Marriott Marquis. Register here.

Oct. 17 — Energy Day 2026

Energy Day Houston is the nation’s largest free, family-friendly STEM festival. It features over 50 interactive exhibits and live demonstrations focused on traditional and emerging energy career paths to power up your curiosity.

This event begins at 11 a.m. on Oct. 17 at Sam Houston Park. Get details here.

Oct. 22 — Rice360 Innovation for Healthcare Access Conference

Researchers and innovators from Rice University, the Texas Medical Center, non-profit organizations, healthcare providers and others will come together to explore gaps in healthcare at the Innovation for Healthcare Access Conference. The event will feature speakers, workshops and case study presentations and will focus on innovations for the health of women and children in underserved rural and urban communities across Texas.

This event is Thursday, Oct. 22, from 8 a.m.-5 p.m. at the Rice University BioScience Research Collaborative (BRC). Register here.

Oct. 28-29 – TiECon 2026

TiE Houston, TiE Dallas and TiE Austin are joining forces to host TiEcon Texas 2026 at the Ion this month. The event will focus on how automation, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies are reshaping Texas industries, the economy and daily life. The conference will feature keynotes, panels, fireside chats and the TiE Hatch Pitch Competition.

This event starts Thursday, Oct. 29, at the Ion. Register here.

UH secures $5M in philanthropic gifts to bolster engineering, nursing

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The University of Houston has received two significant philanthropic gifts to advance innovation and healthcare, the college announced this month.

Manmohan Singh Kalsi and Marie-Luise Schubert Kalsi granted $4 million to UH’s Cullen College of Engineering to support endowed and current funds for graduate fellowships and industry interest in the mechanical and aerospace fields.

The gift is the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering’s largest donation in years, according to UH, and will establish two endowed professorships to attract and retain leading faculty. It will also create the Kalsi Faculty Research Fund, which aims to take emerging research to the next level.

Additionally, UH says it will also bring industry experts to campus to present and collaborate with students via the forthcoming Kalsi Seminar Series.

Manmohan Kalsi earned both his master’s degree and Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from UH. He went on to found Sugar Land-based Kalsi Engineering in 1978, which pioneered hydrodynamic rotary sealing technology and valve technology for nuclear power plants. In 2014, he established an endowed professorship within Cullen College in honor of the late UH professor Gabriel Fazekas.

"This gift provides a tremendous boost to our department's strategic momentum,” Karolos Grigoriadis, chair of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, said in a news release. “By simultaneously supporting faculty, graduate researchers and collaborative seminars, the Kalsis are strengthening every part of our research enterprise and creating new opportunities for discovery, collaboration and student mentorship.”

Meanwhile, Houston’s The Hamill Foundation also gave a $1 million gift to UH’s Andy and Barbara Gessner College of Nursing. The funds will establish The Hamill Foundation Endowed Professorship in Community Care Nursing, to support a faculty member focused on community-based nursing education, partnerships, research, and outreach to underserved communities in Houston.

Additionally, the funding will go toward efforts to address nurse shortages through the newly established UH Health program. The Hamill Foundation has donated $6 million previously to UH through the years, but the latest $1 million is the largest single investment from the foundation to date.

“The Hamill Foundation continues to help us raise the bar for nursing education and address the nursing shortage,” Kathryn Tart, founding dean and professor at Gessner College and Humana Endowed Dean's Chair in Nursing, said in a news release. “The enduring commitment and generosity of The Hamill Foundation allow us to answer the call and educate generations of competent and caring nursing professionals.”

Both of the recent gifts help fund UH’s $1 billion Can’t Stop Houston: The Centennial Campaign. As of September, the university had raised more than $881 million. UH turns 100 years old in March 2027.

SpaceX's supersized Starship rocket launches into orbit for first time

Out in Space

SpaceX launched its enormous Starship into orbit for the first time Monday, September 28, and successfully delivered the most advanced Starlink satellites yet, but cut the flight short to ensure safety.

The spacecraft reentered over the Pacific and splashed down north of Hawaii three hours after blasting off from Texas. The company had been aiming for a 10-hour flight, spanning six full laps around Earth, to prove its readiness for NASA’s Artemis moon program.

Starship tipped over and erupted in flames upon splashdown, a dramatic end to the mission.

Elon Musk's Starship almost didn't make it to orbit when one of its engines shut down prematurely. But with everything else working well and the bad engine no longer needed, flight controllers decided, after several tense minutes, to proceed as planned.

“Starship is orbital,” Mission Control announced to cheers.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman congratulated SpaceX on reaching orbit and “managing every step in a safe, responsible and especially inspirational way.”

Rocket carries 26 of Musk's most advanced Starlink satellites

Musk’s showpiece rocket — the biggest and most powerful ever built — carried 26 of the latest Starlinks to join the 11,000 older models already providing internet service. They popped out of the spacecraft one by one, drawing more cheers from the SpaceX crowd at the Starbase launch site.

The decision to end the flight early came soon afterward. SpaceX said hours later in an online update that the decision was made “out of an abundance of caution” because of the early engine trouble.

It was Starship’s 14th full-scale launch from Texas’ southern tip in three years. Earlier test flights ventured no farther than the Indian Ocean halfway around the world, often crashing in flames and briefly skimming space.

This time, the intent was for SpaceX to circle the globe from an altitude of 170 miles (275 kilometers) — not just once but six times over almost 10 hours, ending with a Pacific splashdown near Chile. While Starship achieved the proper orbit, zipping along at 17,500 mph (28,000 kph), flight controllers opted to play it safe and bring it back several hours sooner, after just a couple of laps.

The first-stage booster was never meant to return to the Starbase launch site either, dropping instead into the Gulf of Mexico within minutes of the morning liftoff.

SpaceX wants to ensure that everything works before flying Starship back to Starbase. If the spacecraft breaks apart over land and rains debris onto people, “our popularity would diminish very rapidly,” Musk said at a business summit earlier this month. “That’s why we’re being extremely cautious here.”

Depending on the findings from Monday's orbital debut, the next Starship could return to the launch pad, where giant mechanical arms would grab the hovering spacecraft. If the catch works — Musk gives it even or slightly better odds — then SpaceX will refly the spacecraft by year’s end or early next year.

The 407-foot (124-meter) rocket was designed from the start to be fully reusable, a key to lowering launch costs. SpaceX managed to salvage the last Starship from the Indian Ocean in July. Engineers modified the newly launched Starship’s heat shield based on hands-on inspections of the recovered spacecraft, which is being tugged back to Starbase.

SpaceX wants Starship to be certified for orbital flight

SpaceX is pressing hard to certify Starship for orbital flight, a vital step toward moon and Mars travel.

NASA’s Artemis III mission is coming up as soon as next summer, a triple-launch docking exercise in orbit around Earth between an Orion capsule full of astronauts and competing lunar landers. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Moon would blast off first, followed by Orion — which would close in for a linkup — and then Musk’s Starship for a docking with Orion once Blue Moon is unleashed.

The next mission, Artemis IV, is slated for no sooner than 2028 and would have astronauts landing on the moon in either Blue Moon or Starship, whichever is ready first. Subsequent moonshots will alternate between the two billionaires’ landers.

Musk originally developed Starship for Mars, intending to launch scores of them with the red planet’s first settlers. For now, he plans to focus on the moon and use Starship to haul satellites into orbit by the truckload, phasing out the company’s frailer Falcon 9 rocket within several years. A second Starship launch site is nearing completion at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center and a third is planned for Louisiana.

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