2021 will be a 'bipolar year' and other key takeaways from the Greater Houston Partnership's economic outlook

looking forward

The Greater Houston Partnership hosted its annual economic outlook event online — here's what the numbers indicate for Houston business in the new year. Photo via Getty Images

As much of the world is ready to celebrate a new year — one likely to be drastically less affected by COVID-19 — the Greater Houston Partnership released an annual report about what Houston's economy will look like in 2021.

Senior vice president of research Patrick Jankowski and his team put the Houston Region Economic Outlook report together and shared some its highlights at a virtual event hosted by Bob Harvey, president and CEO of GHP.

Of course, much of the study focused on how the coronavirus — as well as the impending vaccine — will affect the region's economy.

"At this point last year, neither Patrick nor any of us could have predicted the arrival of COVID-19 and its devastating impact on the global economy," Harvey says at the event. "Here in Houston COVID wreaked havoc on industries across the spectrum from energy to hospitality."

In the early weeks, the Houston region lost 350,000 jobs, according to the report, and in the months since, the region added back about half with 176,000 jobs.

Below are some more key takeaways from the report — and in most cases, the outcome depends on how COVID-19 case numbers are affected by the holidays and the accessibility of the vaccine.

"The weeks and months ahead are likely to be some of the most difficult of the pandemic," Harvey cautions. "We cannot afford to let our guard down now as we approach the finish line."

Energy will continue to struggle

Photo via Getty Images

The past six years have been rough for oil and gas, and in Houston specifically, Houston has lost nearly 100,000 upstream energy jobs, and the energy industry's share of Houston's GDP has fallen from 35 to 40 percent (a GHP '14 estimate) to 20 to 25 percent (a GHP '19 estimate).

The Russia-Saudi Oil Feud in March brought this decline to its head and it's not looking like it's getting back to normal any time soon. "Next year won't be any easier for the industry. While global demand has improved, it will remain three to five million barrels per day below pre-COVID levels," reads the report.

The new administration is expected to have several goals that will affect the industry, such as bringing the U.S. back into the Paris Agreement, negotiating new mileage and emission rules for autos and trucks, slowing or halting oil leasing on federal lands and in the Gulf of Mexico, increasing environmental scrutiny during the pipeline permitting process, and more.

Jobs in some industries will come back

Chart via GHP

According to the report, Houston's unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent in February, jumped to 5.5 percent in March, then 14.3 percent in April — the highest on record.

"Unemployment has improved — we're at 7.9 percent now," Jankowski says at the event.

But recovery depends on the industry. Jankowski predicts that retail and energy are both expected to continue to lose jobs, and other industry sectors — such as government, arts and entertainment, and educational services — aren't expected to grow by much.

However, some of the sectors hardest hit in 2020 — construction, manufacturing, support services, and restaurants — are expected to bounce back with thousands of new jobs.

The chart gives a range of job growth — there's a lower and a higher outlook. Jankowski says it depends on how well the vaccine is doing.

If by mid-year, we don't have much of the population inoculated, it's going to be closer to that lower number," he says.

2021 will be a "bipolar year"

Patrick Jankowski of the GHP. Photo via Houston.org

The first and second halves of the year are going to look different, Jankowski says, it's just a matter of how different at this point. In addition to the vaccine and COVID case numbers, the things the GHP as well as Houston businesses are watching is the new Biden Administration

"We won't see any significant growth in the economy until we get to the second half of the year," he says

The first quarter of 2021 will be especially tough for Houston, according to the report, since the region always experiences job losses in January as retail, restaurant, and transportation workers hired for the holiday season are rolled off. Additionally, contract workers employed to meet year-end deadlines are released and plans for reorganization are implemented.

"No one should be surprised when Houston loses 40,000 or more jobs this January," the report reads. "Houston's recovery will likely lag the U.S.'s by a few months, but growth will resume in the second half of '21."

Three panelists representing the real estate, banking, and health care industries weighed in on innovation in Houston. Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

Overheard: Houston execs weigh in on the innovation ecosystem and local startups

Eavesdropping in Houston

Something has shifted in Houston, and businesses across industries — whether it be real estate, health care, or energy — are focused on innovation, emerging technologies, and the role of startups within the business community.

At the Greater Houston Partnership's annual Economic Outlook on December 5, three panelists from various industries gathered to discuss some of the biggest issues in Houston — from the multifamily real estate market to what the local workforce needs. The panel was moderated by Eddie Robinson, the morning news anchor for Houston Public Radio, and the panelists did weigh in a few issues affecting innovation.

Missed the talk? Here are a few overheard moments from the discussion.

"Houston allows you to do what you do. And you don't get that in other places."

Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

— Bradley R. Freels, chairman of Midway Cos. Freels says, while the city's been overshadowed by other Texas cities for innovation and tech — and even by its large oil and gas industry presence, the city is becoming a great place for startups. "This is a great place to do business because it's easy to get started in business here. I think it's just over shadowed to some degree," he says, adding later that, "the initiative around the innovation corridor is real."

"Houston is unique, in my opinion, in how open and welcoming it is."

Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

— David Milich, CEO of UnitedHealthcare - Texas & Oklahoma. Building off the panelists point that Houston is a spirited, can-do city, Milich specifies that it's the collaboration between people in Houston that sets the city apart. "When we present ourselves with something to get done, we generally get it down."

"We're realizing that the economy is shifting. As we move forward in the 21st century, our entire workforce needs to be tech fluent."

Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

— Nataly Marks, managing director and region manager at JPMorgan Chase. When asked about jobs needed in Houston, Marks specified technology positions. Moreover, JPMorgan Chase is emphasizing getting the entire staff proficient in the latest tech resources.

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4 Houston innovators join prestigious group of inventors as senior members

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Houston is home to four new senior members of the National Academy of Inventors.

To be eligible to be an NAI Senior Member, candidates must be active faculty, scientists and administrators from NAI member institutions that have demonstrated innovation and produced technologies that have “brought, or aspire to bring, real impact on the welfare of society,” according to the NAI. The members have also succeeded in patents, licensing and commercialization, and educating and mentoring.

The University of Houston announced that three professors were selected to join the prestigious NAI list of senior members. UH now has 39 faculty members on the NAI list.

“We congratulate these three esteemed colleagues on being named NAI Senior Members,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, said in a news release. “This recognition is a testament to their dedication, research excellence and pursuit of real-world impact by knowledge and technologies. Their achievements continue to elevate the University as a leader in innovation and entrepreneurship.”

UH’s new senior members include:

  • Birol Dindoruk, the American Association of Drilling Engineers Endowed Professor of Petroleum Engineering and Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at the Cullen College of Engineering. He is known for his research in carbon capture and storage, fluid-rock interactions and hydrogen storage. He holds three patents.
  • Megan Robertson, the Neal R. Amundson professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering at UH’s Cullen College of Engineering. She is developing new polymers and groundbreaking strategies for recycling and reusing plastics. Robertson currently has three patents and two more patent applications pending.
  • Francisco Robles Hernandez, a professor of mechanical engineering technology at the UH College of Technology. He holds four patents, and several others are under review. His work focuses on carbon materials, including pioneering work with graphene and designs with steel and aluminum used in automotives and railroads.

“As an inventor, this is one of the highest honors you can be awarded, so I am very proud to receive it,” Robles Hernandez said in a news release. “UH has been instrumental in supporting my research and innovation efforts, but it’s the creativity of the students here that makes it successful.”

Allison Post, associate director of electrophysiology research and innovations and manager of innovation partnerships at the Texas Heart Institute at Baylor College of Medicine, also made the list.

Post was recognized for her work in biomedical engineering and commitment to advancing cardiovascular care through innovations. Post is the youngest member to be inducted this year.

Other notable Texas honorees include Emma Fan from the University of Texas, Arum Han from Texas A&M and Panos Shiakolas at UT Arlington.

In 2024, Edward Ratner, a computer information systems lecturer in the Department of Information Science Technology at the University of Houston’s Cullen College of Engineering, and Omid Veiseh, a bioengineer at Rice University and director of the Biotech Launch Pad, were named NAI fellows.

The Senior Member Induction Ceremony will honor the 2025 class at NAI’s Annual Conference June 23-26 in Atlanta, Georgia.

Plans revealed for $2 billion expansion of Houston convention district

coming soon

Mayor John Whitmire and Houston First Corporation shared a new master plan for the George R. Brown Convention Center and its surrounding area last week. The plan features expanded exhibition space, a living roof, a pedestrian plaza with access to Toyota Center and more.

The project will be funded by the state’s portion of incremental Hotel Occupancy Tax revenue growth within a three-mile radius of the GRB for 30 years, which is estimated to total about $2 billion, according to a release from Houston First.

The first phase of the project, which is slated to be completed by 2028, will focus on developing a 700,000-square-foot convention facility known as GRB South.

GRB South will feature:

  • Two exhibition halls, totaling 150,000 square feet
  • A 50,000-square-foot multipurpose hall that opens to the new Central Plaza
  • The 100,000-square-foot Central Plaza, an extension of the Avenida Plaza that will connect to Discovery Green and Toyota Center
  • Atrium flex hall totaling 25,000 square feet
  • 225,000 square feet of contiguous exhibit space
  • A 60,000-80,000-square-foot ballroom
  • Ground-level spaces for retail and restaurants
  • A central atrium, providing each level with natural light

The design of the space is inspired by the Houston area's native prairies and will use low-carbon materials, high-efficiency building systems with rainwater collection and water-reduction strategies. A living roof on top of the GRB South will also have the potential for solar integration.

"It is imperative for us to stay competitive and meet the needs of our meetings and convention customers,” Michael Heckman, president and CEO of Houston First, said in the release. “This project will not only accomplish that but will establish a gathering space that will be the epicenter for entertainment, sports, and city-wide events, accentuating our ability to capitalize on Houston's unique offerings.”

The full campus renovation is expected to wrap in 2038, and construction will be managed in phases. Houston First reports that construction should not impact events currently scheduled as GRB.

“This project is truly transformative for downtown Houston, a lasting legacy that will solidify our position as a top-tier convention and entertainment destination,” Mayor John Whitmire said in the release. “Most importantly, we are creating a space that will build community, foster connection, and shape the future of Houston.”

Explore renderings of the plans below.

  

Rendering courtesy Houston First.

Tech company floats plan for futuristic shipyard on Texas Gulf Coast

Anchors Away

Armed with $600 million in fresh funding, Austin-based Saronic Technologies has set its sights on building a shipyard for producing remotely operated military vessels — and the futuristic shipyard could be located along the Texas Gulf Coast.

The shipyard, dubbed Port Alpha, would manufacture unstaffed midsize and large Navy ships known as “maritime drones.” Defense Newsreported that Texas — with the Gulf Coast being a prime target — is among the places under consideration for the shipyard. A timeline for construction of the shipyard hasn’t been set, and a cost estimate for the project hasn’t been revealed.

“A core principle of Saronic is that we design our vessels for autonomy from the keel up,” Saronic co-founder and CEO Dino Mavrookas, a former Navy SEAL, says in a news release. “We will take the same approach with Port Alpha, designing a shipyard from the ground up to produce at a speed and scale not seen since World War II.”

Saronic says Port Alpha would boost the U.S. shipbuilding industry, which is practically nonexistent. Consulting giant McKinsey & Co. reported in 2024 that the U.S. has gone from building about 5 percent of the world’s ocean-going ships in the 1970s to about 0.2 percent today. China, Japan, and South Korea now dominate global shipbuilding.

“The last years have seen a degradation in the capacity for the United States to build ships and to manufacture core needs of the country. I am excited to back Saronic and its focus on revitalizing shipbuilding in America, while also building products to defend those interests,” says investor and tech entrepreneur Elad Gil, who led the $600 million funding round.

The $600 million round, announced February 18, pushes the value of Saronic to $4 billion. Investors in Saronic, founded in 2022, include Gil, General Catalyst, a16z, Caffeinated Capital, and 8VC.

Last year, Saronic raised $175 million from investors, lifting the company’s value to $1 billion. In 2023, the startup collected $55 million from investors.

In the past three years, Saronic has focused on manufacturing three small remotely controlled vessels, or “maritime drones,” for the Navy: the six-foot-long Spyglass, 14-foot-long Cutlass, and 24-foot-long Corsair. Port Alpha would specialize in much bigger remotely controlled ships for the Navy. The Navy has expressed interest in assembling a modern fleet that combines staffed and unstaffed vessels.

Saronic’s nearly 420,000-square-foot factory in Austin manufactures the Spyglass, Cutlass and Corsair boats.

“The velocity and economics of warfare have fundamentally evolved, and several of our own team have witnessed firsthand how unmanned systems became true force multipliers in Afghanistan and in other theaters of conflict,” says Paul Kwan, managing director of General Catalyst.

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This story originally was published on our sister site CultureMap Austin.

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