The Greater Houston Partnership hosted its annual economic outlook event online — here's what the numbers indicate for Houston business in the new year. Photo via Getty Images

As much of the world is ready to celebrate a new year — one likely to be drastically less affected by COVID-19 — the Greater Houston Partnership released an annual report about what Houston's economy will look like in 2021.

Senior vice president of research Patrick Jankowski and his team put the Houston Region Economic Outlook report together and shared some its highlights at a virtual event hosted by Bob Harvey, president and CEO of GHP.

Of course, much of the study focused on how the coronavirus — as well as the impending vaccine — will affect the region's economy.

"At this point last year, neither Patrick nor any of us could have predicted the arrival of COVID-19 and its devastating impact on the global economy," Harvey says at the event. "Here in Houston COVID wreaked havoc on industries across the spectrum from energy to hospitality."

In the early weeks, the Houston region lost 350,000 jobs, according to the report, and in the months since, the region added back about half with 176,000 jobs.

Below are some more key takeaways from the report — and in most cases, the outcome depends on how COVID-19 case numbers are affected by the holidays and the accessibility of the vaccine.

"The weeks and months ahead are likely to be some of the most difficult of the pandemic," Harvey cautions. "We cannot afford to let our guard down now as we approach the finish line."

Energy will continue to struggle

Photo via Getty Images

The past six years have been rough for oil and gas, and in Houston specifically, Houston has lost nearly 100,000 upstream energy jobs, and the energy industry's share of Houston's GDP has fallen from 35 to 40 percent (a GHP '14 estimate) to 20 to 25 percent (a GHP '19 estimate).

The Russia-Saudi Oil Feud in March brought this decline to its head and it's not looking like it's getting back to normal any time soon. "Next year won't be any easier for the industry. While global demand has improved, it will remain three to five million barrels per day below pre-COVID levels," reads the report.

The new administration is expected to have several goals that will affect the industry, such as bringing the U.S. back into the Paris Agreement, negotiating new mileage and emission rules for autos and trucks, slowing or halting oil leasing on federal lands and in the Gulf of Mexico, increasing environmental scrutiny during the pipeline permitting process, and more.

Jobs in some industries will come back

Chart via GHP

According to the report, Houston's unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent in February, jumped to 5.5 percent in March, then 14.3 percent in April — the highest on record.

"Unemployment has improved — we're at 7.9 percent now," Jankowski says at the event.

But recovery depends on the industry. Jankowski predicts that retail and energy are both expected to continue to lose jobs, and other industry sectors — such as government, arts and entertainment, and educational services — aren't expected to grow by much.

However, some of the sectors hardest hit in 2020 — construction, manufacturing, support services, and restaurants — are expected to bounce back with thousands of new jobs.

The chart gives a range of job growth — there's a lower and a higher outlook. Jankowski says it depends on how well the vaccine is doing.

If by mid-year, we don't have much of the population inoculated, it's going to be closer to that lower number," he says.

2021 will be a "bipolar year"

Patrick Jankowski of the GHP. Photo via Houston.org

The first and second halves of the year are going to look different, Jankowski says, it's just a matter of how different at this point. In addition to the vaccine and COVID case numbers, the things the GHP as well as Houston businesses are watching is the new Biden Administration

"We won't see any significant growth in the economy until we get to the second half of the year," he says

The first quarter of 2021 will be especially tough for Houston, according to the report, since the region always experiences job losses in January as retail, restaurant, and transportation workers hired for the holiday season are rolled off. Additionally, contract workers employed to meet year-end deadlines are released and plans for reorganization are implemented.

"No one should be surprised when Houston loses 40,000 or more jobs this January," the report reads. "Houston's recovery will likely lag the U.S.'s by a few months, but growth will resume in the second half of '21."

Three panelists representing the real estate, banking, and health care industries weighed in on innovation in Houston. Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

Overheard: Houston execs weigh in on the innovation ecosystem and local startups

Eavesdropping in Houston

Something has shifted in Houston, and businesses across industries — whether it be real estate, health care, or energy — are focused on innovation, emerging technologies, and the role of startups within the business community.

At the Greater Houston Partnership's annual Economic Outlook on December 5, three panelists from various industries gathered to discuss some of the biggest issues in Houston — from the multifamily real estate market to what the local workforce needs. The panel was moderated by Eddie Robinson, the morning news anchor for Houston Public Radio, and the panelists did weigh in a few issues affecting innovation.

Missed the talk? Here are a few overheard moments from the discussion.

"Houston allows you to do what you do. And you don't get that in other places."

Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

Bradley R. Freels, chairman of Midway Cos. Freels says, while the city's been overshadowed by other Texas cities for innovation and tech — and even by its large oil and gas industry presence, the city is becoming a great place for startups. "This is a great place to do business because it's easy to get started in business here. I think it's just over shadowed to some degree," he says, adding later that, "the initiative around the innovation corridor is real."

"Houston is unique, in my opinion, in how open and welcoming it is."

Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

— David Milich, CEO of UnitedHealthcare - Texas & Oklahoma. Building off the panelists point that Houston is a spirited, can-do city, Milich specifies that it's the collaboration between people in Houston that sets the city apart. "When we present ourselves with something to get done, we generally get it down."

"We're realizing that the economy is shifting. As we move forward in the 21st century, our entire workforce needs to be tech fluent."

Photo via Greater Houston Partnership/Facebook

Nataly Marks, managing director and region manager at JPMorgan Chase. When asked about jobs needed in Houston, Marks specified technology positions. Moreover, JPMorgan Chase is emphasizing getting the entire staff proficient in the latest tech resources.

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California-based healthcare co. expands to Houston with new bioskills lab

med skills

Axis Research & Technologies, a California-based healthcare innovation solutions and medical research company, has expanded into the Houston area via a new 10,800-square-foot bioskills lab in Shenandoah last month.

The facility includes a main lab that’s configurable into a single space with over 20 stations, two more lab suites for specialized bioskills training, a conference room for presentations and a large multipurpose area.

Medical professionals can simulate a fully functional operating room in the lab for training and education. It also has the capability of handling cadaver specimens.

The company says the new facility aims to serve surgeons, medical device companies, hospitals and research institutions.

Axis was attracted to Houston thanks to the Texas Medical Center and other world-class medical groups, according to a release from the company. The facility in Shenandoah will be near medical facilities in The Woodlands.

“We are thrilled to expand into the Houston market,” Jill Goodwin, COO of Axis, said in a news release. “This new facility was driven by demand from our clients who have expressed a need for a high-quality bioskills lab in Houston. We repeatedly heard this feedback at the most recent American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) conference, which reinforced our decision to bring Axis to the region.”

Axis hosted its first lab event at its Houston-area venue on Feb. 22. The facility is currently accepting bookings for medical trainings, research collaborations and use of its bioskills lab.

“Our goal is to create an environment where groundbreaking medical advancements can take place,” Goodwin added in a news release. “Houston is home to one of the largest medical communities in the country, making it a perfect fit for our expansion.”

Axis' other bioskills labs are located in Nasvhille; Irvine, California; and Columbia, Maryland.

Texas institute grants $12M to bring leading cancer researchers to Houston

cha-ching

Rice University has recruited a prominent Swedish cancer researcher thanks to a $6 million grant from the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas.

It’s among $68 million in research grants recently awarded by the state agency, and six recruitment grants totaling $16 million to bring leading cancer researchers to Texas.

A news release from the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) describes Pernilla Wittung-Stafshede of the Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden, as “an accomplished and highly gifted biophysical scientist tackling complicated biological questions regarding the role of metals and metal dysregulation in various diseases. She pioneered a new research field around the role of metal ions in the folding and function of metalloproteins.”

Metalloproteins account for nearly half of all proteins in biology, according to the National Institutes of Health. They “catalyze some of the most difficult and yet important functions in [nature], such as photosynthesis and water oxidation,” the federal agency says.

Wittung-Stafshede, a professor of chemical biology and life sciences at Chalmers, is a former professor at Rice.

Aside from the money for Wittung-Stafshede, Houston recruitment grants also went to:

  • University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center: $2 million to recruit Rosalie Griffin of the Mayo Clinic
  • Baylor College of Medicine: $2 million to recruit Dr. Nipun Verma of the Yale University School of Medicine
  • Baylor College of Medicine: $2 million to recruit Xin “Daniel” Gao of Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

In Houston, cancer research grants were given to:

  • Baylor College of Medicine: $7.8 million
  • M.D. Anderson Cancer Center: $20.7 million
  • Rice University: $ 1 million
  • University of Houston: $1.2 million
  • University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston: $4.5 million

“The awards … represent the depth and diversity of CPRIT funding for cancer research in Texas,” says Kristen Doyle, CEO of CPRIT. “These grants develop new approaches to preventing, diagnosing, treating, and surviving cancer for all Texans.”

See the full list of awards here.