By accounting for both known and unknowable factors, managers can identify salespeople with traits that work best in different types of sales. Getty Images

When you're a manager, decisions barrage you each day. What product works? Which store layout entices? How will you balance the budget? Many of these decisions ultimately hinge on one factor: the skills of your sales force.

Often, when managers evaluate their salespeople they contend with invisible factors that may not show up in commissions or name-tagged sales rosters — intangibles such as product placement, season or simply a store's surrounding population. This makes it hard to fully evaluate a salesperson, or to spot which workers can teach valuable skills to their peers and improve the whole team.

But what if you could plug a few variables into a statistical model to spot your best sellers? You could then ask the star salespeople to teach coworkers some of their secrets. New research by Rice Business professor Wagner A. Kamakura and colleague Danny P. Claro of Brazil's Insper Education and Research Institute offers a technique for doing this. Blending statistical methods that incorporate both known and unknown factors, Kamakura and Claro developed a practical tool that, for the first time, allows managers to identify staffers with key hidden skills.

To test their model, the researchers analyzed store data from 35 cosmetic and healthcare retail franchises in four South American markets. These particular stores were ideal to test the model because their salespeople were individually responsible for each transaction from the moment a customer entered a store to the time of purchase. The salespeople were also required to have detailed knowledge of products throughout each store.

Breaking down the product lines into 11 specific categories, and accounting for predictors such as commission, product display, time of year and market potential, Kamakura and Claro documented and compared each salesperson's performance across products and over time.

They then organized members of the salesforce by strengths and weaknesses, spotlighting those workers who used best practices in a certain area and those who might benefit from that savvy. The resulting insight allowed managers to name team members as either growth advisors or learners. Thanks to the model's detail, Kamakura and Claro note, managers can spot a salesperson who excels in one category but has room to learn, rather than seeing that worker averaged into a single, middle-of-the-pack ranking.

If a salesperson is, for example, a sales savant but lags in customer service, managers can use that insight to help the worker improve individually, while at the same time strategizing for the store's overall success. Put into practice, the model also allows managers to identify team members who excel at selling one specific product category — and encourage them to share their secrets and methods with coworkers.

It might seem that teaching one employee to sell one more set of earbuds or one more lawn chair makes little difference. But applied consistently over time, such personalized product-specific improvement can change the face of a salesforce — and in the end, a whole business. A good manager uses all the tools available. Kamakura and Claro's model makes it possible for every employee on a sales team to be a potential coach for the rest.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom.

Based on research from Wagner A. Kamakura, the Jesse H. Jones Professor of Marketing at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

Keeping on track with trends is crucial to growing and developing a relationship with your customers, these Rice University researchers found. Getty Images

Rice researcher delves into the importance of trendspotting in consumer behavior

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Every business wants to read consumers' minds: what they love, what they hate. Even more, businesses crave to know about mass trends before they're visible to the naked eye.

In the past, analysts searching for trends needed to pore over a vast range of sources for marketplace indicators. The internet and social media have changed that: marketers now have access to an avalanche of real-time indicators, laden with details about the wishes hidden within customers' hearts and minds. With services such as Trendistic (which tracks individual Twitter terms), Google Insights for Search and BlogPulse, modern marketers are even privy to the real-time conversations surrounding consumers' desires.

Now, imagine being able to analyze all this data across large panels of time – then distilling it so well that you could identify marketing trends quickly, accurately and quantitatively.

Rice Business professor Wagner A. Kamakura and Rex Y. Du of the University of Houston set out to create a model that makes this possible. Because both quantitative and qualitative trendspotting are exploratory endeavors, Kamakura notes, both types of research can yield results that are broad but also inaccurate. To remedy this, Kamakura and Du devised a new model for quickly and accurately refining market data into trend patterns.

Kamakura and Du's model entails taking five simple steps to analyze gathered data using a quantitative method. By following this process of refining the data tens or hundreds of times, then isolating the information into specific seasonal and non-seasonal trends or dynamic trends, researchers can generate steady trend patterns across time panels.

Here's the process:

  • First, gather individual indicators by assembling data from different sources, with the understanding that the information is interconnected. It's crucial to select the data methodically, rather than making random choices, in order to avoid subjectively preselecting irrelevant indicators and blocking out relevant ones. Done sloppily, this first step can generate misleading information.
  • Distill the data into a few common factors. The raw data might include inaccuracies, which must be filtered out to lower the risk of overreacting or noting erroneous indicators.
  • Interpret and identify common trends by understanding the causes of spikes or dips in consumer behavior. It's key to separate non-cyclical and cyclical changes, because exterior events such as holidays or weather can alter behavior.
  • Compare your analysis with previously identified trends and other variables to establish their validity and generate insights. Looking at past performance through the filter of new insights can offer managers important guidance.
  • Project the trend lines you've identified using historical tracking data and their modeling framework. These trend lines can then be extrapolated into near-future projections, allowing managers to better position themselves and be proactive trying to reverse unfavorable trends and leverage positive ones.

It's important to bear in mind that the indicators used for quantitative trendspotting are prone to random and systematic errors, Kamakura writes. The model he devised, however, can filter these errors because it keeps them from appearing across different series of time panels. The result: better ability to identify genuine movements and general trends, free from the influence of seasonal events and from random error.

It goes without saying that the information and persuasiveness offered by the internet are inevitably attended by noise. For marketers, this means that without filtering, some trends show spikes for temporary items – mere viral jolts that can skew market research.

Kamakura and Du's model helps sidestep this problem by blending available historical data analysis, large time panels and movements while avoiding errors common to more traditional methods. For managers longing to glimpse the next big thing, this analytical model can reveal emerging consumer movements with clarity – just as they're becoming the future.

(For the mathematically inclined, and those comfortable with Excel macros and Add-Ins, who want to try trendspotting on their own tracking data, Kamakura's Analytical Tools for Excel (KATE) can be downloaded for free at http://wak2.web.rice.edu/bio/Kamakura_Analytic_Tools.html.)

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom.

Wagner A. Kamakura is Jesse H. Jones Professor of Marketing at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Houston mental health nonprofit expands platform statewide to connect more Texans with care

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As mental health conversations evolve, the necessary pivot becomes how organizations across Texas navigate improved ways to help people access the care they need before their challenges become crises.

That’s why Mental Health America of Greater Houston recently announced that it is expanding its Care Connect platform statewide.

The expansion will address perhaps the most persistent barrier to behavioral healthcare—helping people find and navigate services that already exist.

Care Connect’s extended reach comes at a time when more than 3.5 million adults in the state live with some kind of mental health condition and scores of those in need continue to struggle with accessing care despite the growing awareness of mental health needs.

According to President and CEO Renae Vania Tomczak, Care Connect’s main goal was to remove as many obstacles as possible that Texans face when seeking mental health support.

“Care Connect was about a two-year planning process,” Tomczak says. “It really began with asking what challenges people in the Greater Houston Area were facing regarding mental health. It’s not just accessing care, but the difficulty in navigating the mental healthcare system.”

While provider shortages remain a challenge in some communities, Mental Health America of Greater Houston found that many individuals and families struggle simply to determine where to turn, how to identify the right provider and whether services are affordable.

“We wanted to make it easier for people who have questions, who may never have had a mental health challenge before, or they’re a caregiver for somebody who has a mental health issue,” Tomczak says. “We wanted to be the place that people can come to get their questions answered and be connected to care.”

Care Connect combines a vetted network of more than 1,000 providers and services across Texas with personalized navigation support.

Searches generate care results based on insurance coverage, language preferences, ZIP code and clinical specialties.

Additionally, one-on-one guidance and follow-up support are provided by bilingual resource specialists.

The platform also seeks to address affordability, one of the most significant barriers to mental healthcare access. Through participating providers, eligible individuals can receive six to eight counseling sessions at no cost.

“We have several providers who are willing to provide six to eight counseling sessions at no cost for people who do not have the means to pay for services themselves,” Tomczak says.

When provider matches are unavailable, the organization can connect individuals with master’s-level mental health professionals working under the supervision of licensed clinicians.

The statewide rollout builds on the platform’s early success in the Houston region, where it has helped thousands of individuals connect with mental health resources since launching last fall.

According to Tomczak, the decision to expand was driven in part by growing demand from outside the organization’s traditional service area.

“Last month we decided to take this program statewide,” she says. “It’s not just Houston that can use help in connecting to appropriate mental health services, but the whole state.”

The Care Connect program’s promotion through healthcare providers, community organizations and public-sector partners across Texas is now one of Mental Health America of Greater Houston’s top priorities.

Their goal is to create a stronger referral ecosystem that ultimately helps those who need access to mental health care more quickly.

To facilitate that, the organization has also added free mental health screenings to its website so that users will better identify any symptoms related to anxiety, depression and other conditions.

“Once they do that, then where do they go?” Tomczak says. “They’re not sure who to call and who can help them. At that point, we hope they’ll call us and talk to somebody live who can answer their questions and help them get started on the right path to improving their mental health.”

With eyes on the future, Tomczak believes public understanding of mental health has improved in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought new attention to the effects of stress, isolation and uncertainty.

“The more we talk about it and have the opportunity to share that mental health conditions are traceable, the better,” she says.

According to Tomczak, long-term, Care Connect aims to reduce roadblocks that exist between recognizing the need for help and receiving it.

Ultimately, Care Connect hopes to create a robustly connected behavioral health system that gives Texans the ability to access mental health services swiftly and with confidence.

“No one should have to navigate mental health challenges alone,” Tomczak adds. “Care Connect is here to help connect people with resources, services and answers to ensure they get the care they need to take the next step toward better mental health.”

ExxonMobil sets date to make Texas its legal HQ

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Energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp. has set a date to move its legal headquarters to Texas.

The Spring-based company announced this week that the redomiciliation from New Jersey to Texas is expected to be effective July 1. Exxon's board of directors unanimously recommended redomiciling in the Lone Star State in March, and shareholders approved the move to Texas at the company’s annual meeting in May.

As part of the move, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. will replace Exxon Mobil Corp. of New Jersey and become the publicly traded parent company. Exxon reports that its shares will continue to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “XOM,” and that shareholders do not need to take action.

At the time of the recommendation, Exxon said the move would not affect business operations, management, strategy, assets or employee locations.

Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods added that the redomiciliation was in part due to Texas' business-friendly environment and policies.

"Over the past several years, Texas has made a noticeable effort to embrace the business community. In doing so, it has created a policy and regulatory environment that can allow the company to maximize shareholder value,” Woods said in a news release. "Aligning our legal home with our operating home, in a state that understands our business and has a stake in the company’s success, is important.”

The Associated Press reports that about 30 percent of Exxon's employees work in Texas. Exxon's legal headquarters has been based in New Jersey since 1882, when it was Standard Oil Company.

Exxon moved its operational headquarters from Irving, Texas, to the Houston area in 2023.

Exxon was the highest-ranking Houston-area company on this year's Fortune 500 list, coming in at No. 9. Houston tied with Chicago for the second-most Fortune 500 headquarters on this year's list, with Texas leading the nation for the most Fortune 500 headquarters (57).

“Texas is the undisputed headquarters of headquarters,” Gov. Greg Abbott said in a news release. “The world’s leading businesses invest with confidence in Texas because of our welcoming business climate, predictable regulatory environment, and skilled and growing workforce. People and businesses are choosing Texas because Texas works.”

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.