As corporate debt markets continue to grow in importance, it will become crucial for investors and regulators to understand the nuanced factors influencing their liquidity. Photo via Getty Images

At the end of every quarter, publicly traded companies announce their profits and losses in an earnings report. These updates provide insight into a company’s performance and, in theory, give investors and shareholders clarity on whether to buy, sell or hold. If earnings are good, the stock price may soar. If they’re down, the price might plunge.

However, the implications for the stock price may not be immediately clear to all investors. In the face of this uncertainty, sellers will ask for high prices, and buyers will offer low ones, creating a significant “bid-ask spread.” When this happens, it becomes more costly to trade, and the stock becomes less liquid.

This is a well-documented effect on equity stock markets. However, according to research by Stefan Huber (Rice Business), Chongho Kim (Seoul National University) and Edward M. Watts (Yale SOM), the corporate bond market responds differently to earnings news. This is because bond markets differ from stock markets in a significant way.

Stocks v. Bonds: What Happens When Earnings Are Announced?

Equities are usually traded on centralized exchanges (e.g., New York Stock Exchange). The exchange automatically queues up buyers and sellers according to the quote they’ve entered. Trades are executed electronically, and the parties involved are typically anonymous. A prospective buyer might purchase Microsoft shares from someone drawing down their 401(k) — or they could be buying from Bill Gates himself.

Corporate bond markets work differently. They are “over-the-counter” (OTC) markets, meaning a buyer or seller needs to find a counterparty to trade with. This involves getting quotes from and negotiating with potential counterparties. This is an inherent friction in bond trading that results in much higher costs of trading in the form of wider bid-ask spreads.

Here’s what Huber and his colleagues learned from the research: Earnings announcements prompt many investors to trade. And on OTC markets, potential buyers and sellers become easier to find and negotiate with.

A Stronger Bargaining Position for Bonds

According to Huber, “When earnings information comes out, a lot of people want to trade. In bond markets, that makes it much easier to find someone to trade with. The more options you have to trade, the stronger your bargaining position becomes, and the lower your trading costs go.”

He compares the process to shopping in a market with a flexible approach to pricing.

“Let's say you're at a farmers market and you want to buy an apple,” Huber says. “If there is only one seller, you buy the apple from that person. They can ask for whatever price they want. But if there are multiple sellers, you can ask around, and there is potential to get a better price. The price you get depends on the number of options you have in trading partners.”

What’s at Stake?

Although bonds receive less attention than equities, the stakes are high. There is about $10 trillion in outstanding corporate debt in the U.S., and more than $34 billion in average daily trading volume.

A detailed record of bond trades is available from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), which requires that trades be reported via their Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE).

The study from Huber and co-authors uses an enhanced version of TRACE to examine trades executed between 2002 and 2020. The team analyzed the thirty-day periods before and after earnings announcements to gather data about volume, bid-ask spreads and other measures of liquidity.

They find that, like on the stock market, there are more investors and broker-dealers trading bonds around earnings announcements. However, unlike on the stock market, transaction costs for bonds decrease by 6 to 7 percent in the form of bid-ask spreads.

What Sets This Research Apart?

“Taking a purely information asymmetry-based view would predict that what happens to stock liquidity would also happen to bonds,” Huber says. “A piece of information drops, and some people are better able to work with it, so others price protect, and bid-ask spreads and the cost of trading go up.”

“But if you consider the search and bargaining frictions in bond markets, you get a more nuanced picture. While information asymmetry increases, like it does on stock markets, the information prompts more investors into bond trading, which makes it easier to find counterparties and get better transaction prices. Consequently, bid-ask spreads go down. This search and bargaining friction does not really exist on equities exchanges. But we cannot ignore it in OTC markets.”

As corporate debt markets continue to grow in importance, it will become crucial for investors and regulators to understand the nuanced factors influencing their liquidity. This study provides a solid foundation for future research.

------

This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom. For more, see “Earnings News and Over-the-Counter Markets.” Journal of Accounting Research 62.2 (2024): 701-35.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Houston firm invests $150M in leading 'lab on a chip' medical diagnostics co.

fresh funds

Houston-based health technology investment firm Hamershlag Private Capital Management Limited (HPCM) announced a $150.15 million venture investment in Patho Care LLC.

Patho Care is a “lab on a chip” medical diagnostics company known for its noninvasive point-of-care testing platforms, such as its Raman spectroscopy-based platform.

Its digital point-of-care testing devices are programmable, mobile, and reusable and can detect current or future respiratory bacterial or viral infections. The company says the technology is more cost-effective and provides results faster than traditional diagnostic methods.

“Patho Care LLC is a distinguished leader in healthcare diagnostics through the utilization of a novel approach with spectroscopy and this investment aligns with HPCM’s strategy of partnering with high-potential companies in dynamic industries,” L. Mychal Jefferson, Chairman of Hamershlag, said in a news release.

The transaction was structured as an acquisition and recapitalization using newly issued common stock and cash, which will work through a newly formed entity, PathoCare Holdings Inc. The deal will also facilitate the repayment of Patho Care LLC's existing financial obligations and settle Patho Care’s outstanding notes, helping ensure the company’s financial readiness, according to the release.

The investment will help Patho Care LLC improve operational efficiencies, broaden its service offerings and continue to innovate in the diagnostic testing space. The companies hope the collaboration will help “unlock new growth opportunities while maintaining the company’s legacy of excellence in an emerging technology,” according to a news release.

“Our commitment to delivering transformative value through innovative investments underscores our confidence in Patho Care’s vision and capabilities,” Jefferson added.

10+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for February

WHERE TO BE

From talks with the hall-of-fame beauty business founders to agtech and AI summits, Houston will host a number of events focused on innovation and innovators in February.

Here’s what not to miss and how to register.

Note: This post might be updated to add more events.

Feb. 7 – SheSpace Offsite: Coffee & Connection

Get out of the office and head over to Midtown network with fellow SheSpace members and working women via coffee and conversation.

This event is Friday, Feb. 7, from 2-4 p.m. at Kefita Coffee. RSVP here.

Feb. 11 – Texas Business Hall of Fame x Ion: Creators Series with Founders Janet Gurwitch (Laura Mercier) and Tiffany Masterson (Drunk Elephant)

Take part in Texas Business Hall of Fame’s launch of its Creators 2025 speaker series. Janet Gurwitch, founder of Laura Mercier, and Tiffany Masterson, founder of Drunk Elephant, will discuss lessons learned while building their global retail brands and their successful exits.

This event is Tuesday, Feb. 11, from 8–10 a.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 11 – How to Start a Startup

Gain insight from Mercury Fund’s Heath Butler and stick around for a happy hour afterward. This session, originally scheduled for Jan. 21, is geared toward entrepreneurs, small business owners, investors and academic partners

This event is Tuesday, Feb. 11, from 5:30–7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 15 – Ion Family Tech Day: Youth Entrepreneurship with Lemonade Day University

Bring the whole family out to the Ion for a family-friendly entrepreneurial workshop with Lemonade Day. Kids can compete in a pitch competition to win free supplies, and trained instructors will coach kids on how to set goals, develop a business or marketing plan and budget, create a brand, save and invest money, and more.

This event is Saturday, Feb. 15, from 10 a.m.–12:30 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 18 — Female Founders and Friends

Connect with like-minded female founders, funders, and allies at this recurring event. Female Founders & Friends is open to all industries and coffee is provided.

This event is Tuesday, Feb. 18, at 9 a.m. at Sesh Coworking. Register here.

Feb. 20 — Diaspora Africa Conference

Come together to hear inspiring speakers, participate in interactive workshops and network with others who are passionate about African heritage and the contributions of the African diaspora. This event will showcase African innovation and allow attendees to connect with funding sources actively seeking high-growth opportunities in Africa.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 20, from 9 a.m.–6 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb 20–21 — TMC AI Summit 2025

The TMC AI Summit aims to translate advanced AI innovations into practical solutions for real-world biomedical and health care challenges by bringing together researchers, clinicians, and industry leaders. The event features various workshops and tracks with keynote speakers from Rice University, UTHealth, Microsoft Health Futures and other organizations.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 20, from noon–7 p.m. and Friday, Feb. 21, from 8 a.m.–5 p.m. at TMC Helix Park in the TMC3 Collaborative Building. Register here.

Feb. 25 — Houston Methodist Leadership Speaker Series at Ion - Tesha Montgomery

Hear from Houston Methodist’s SVP of System Patient Access about how the health care system is approaching improvements to patient access and highlighting women in health care leadership. Audiences can participate in a 30-minute discussion following Montgomery’s remarks.

This event is Tuesday, Feb. 25, from 4:45–6 p.m. at the Houston Methodist Tech Hub at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 26 — Inaugural HTX AgTech Rodeo Innovation Summit 2025

Network with farmers, founders, startups and investors at the first-ever HTX AgTech Rodeo Innovation Summit. The all-day event will feature panels, fireside chats, a Saddle Up Pitch Competition and reception with live music.

This event is Wednesday, Feb. 26, from 8:30 a.m.–8 p.m. Find more information and register here.

Feb. 27 — NASA Tech Talks

Every fourth Thursday of the month, NASA experts, including longtime engineer Montgomery Goforth, present on technology development challenges challenges NASA’s Johnson Space Center and the larger aerospace community are facing and how they can be leveraged by Houston’s innovation community. Stick around after for drinks and networking at Second Draught.


This event is Thursday, Feb. 27, from 6-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 27–28 – QVIDTVM x The Ion: Inaugural Hack Day Competition

Investment firm QVIDTVM and the Ion are calling all data scientists, analysts, developers and innovators to a new hack day. Participants will aim to find the total value of real estate platformed by Airbnb globally and can participate in a Fireside Chat on AI with Nick King, founder and CEO of Data Kinetic. Teams can include up to four people and prizes for first through third place will be awarded.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 27, at 9:30 a.m. until Friday, Feb. 28, at 5 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.


Houston humanoid robotics startup secures millions in pre-seed funding

my robot

A Houston-based startup developing AI-powered humanoid robots for manufacturers and other businesses has raised more than $10 million in pre-seed funding less than a year after its founding.

Nic Radford, co-founder and CEO of Persona AI, declines to disclose the amount raised. However, he tells InnovationMap that it was an eight-figure total.

While not providing names, Radford says Persona AI’s first outside investors include VC firms, institutions and high-net-worth individuals in the U.S., London and Singapore. One of the high-net-worth investors was among the first employees at SpaceX, Elon Musk’s Brownsville, Texas-based aerospace company, according to Radford.

No Houston investors have participated in the funding round yet. However, Radford says he’s working on bringing aboard one local investor before the round closes.

“Houston’s the perfect city to do a company like this in,” Radford says. “It’s just not the perfect investor climate, but it's the perfect city from a customer aspect.”

Persona AI’s pre-seed funding comes amid a dramatic surge in investment capital chasing AI startups. Global funding for AI-related companies exceeded $100 billion in 2024, up more than 80 percent from the 2023 total, Crunchbase data shows.

Radford and co-founder Jerry Pratt, the startup’s chief technology officer, bootstrapped Persona AI. The third co-founder, Jide Akinyode, serves as Persona AI’s chief operating officer. Radford and Akinyode helped develop NASA’s six-foot-two-inch Valkyrie humanoid robot and both are former employees of Webster-based Nauticus Robotics, a provider of autonomous subsea robots.

Persona AI launched last June in what Radford calls “anti-stealth mode.” The startup is close to announcing its first customer, which does business in the industrial sector. Persona AI expects customers to take delivery of its first robot in 18 to 24 months, Radford says.

Persona AI will operate primarily as a robotics-as-a-service provider, with the company retaining ownership of the lifelike robots and selling the labor that they supply. Radford says the startup’s robots will help alleviate a shortage of skilled labor in sectors like manufacturing.

A report released last year by consulting firm Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute declared that as many as 1.9 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. could go unfilled between 2024 and 2033 due to a skills gap and a tight labor market.

Persona AI competes in a market with enormous potential. In November, analysts at Citi Global Insights projected that the global market for humanoid robots could soar to $7 trillion by 2050, with 650 million of the robots tackling all sorts of jobs.

Radford says Personal AI is developing a “rugged” five-foot-eight-inch humanoid robot that’s able to survive tough indoor and outdoor conditions and take on tasks like carting around sheet metal, tending to metal-stamping machines, moving storage bins and handling order fulfillment. He likens his company’s robot prototype to a Ford F-150 pickup truck, compared to the less-sturdy versions produced by robotics competitors, which he calls the Toyota Camry or Volkswagen Beetles of the field.

Radford says he and his team “are building a really compelling startup in one of the hottest markets and one of the greatest cities.” Employees work at Persona AI’s headquarters in Houston or its satellite office in Pensacola, Florida, where Pratt is located.

“We don’t hire anybody that’s not a rock star or superstar,” says Radford, “and I think the city is going to benefit tremendously from our efforts at Persona.”

Radford saw his last company, Nauticus Robotics, from founding to IPO, left the company in January and previously told InnovationMap that he couldn't get the idea of advancing humanoid robotics out of his head. Read more here.