Houston research on asset valuation reveals importance of 'opinion shopping'

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New research reveals that companies often “opinion shop” to shape their financial reality. Photo via rice.edu

Firms often have to estimate the “fair value” of their investments, meaning they have to declare what an asset is worth on the market. To avoid the potential for bias and manipulation, companies will use third-party services to provide an objective estimate of their assets’ fair value.

But nothing prevents a company from seeking multiple third-party estimates and choosing whichever one suits their purpose.

In a recent study, Shiva Sivaramakrishnan (Rice Business) and co-authors Minjae Koo (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) and Yuping Zhao (University of Houston) examine two motives for switching third-party evaluators: “opinion shopping” and “objective valuation.”

Firms that opinion shop are looking for a third-party source to make their investments look better on paper. For example, if Service A says an asset is worth $80 — and that means the company would have to take an accounting loss — the company might switch to Service B, which says the asset is worth $90. By using the higher estimate from Service B, the company avoids a loss.

Opinion shopping can be a dangerous practice, both on a macro level and for the specific firms that engage in it. Not only does it reduce the quality of fair value estimates for everyone, it means some company assets are potentially overvalued. And if those assets ever decline in value for real, the company will eventually take a loss.

Moreover, opinion shopping opens the door to managerial opportunism. If assets are valued more highly, managers are likely to receive credit and potentially use that perceived accomplishment to advance their careers.

There are reasons for companies to go the other way. In the hypothetical scenario above, our company might switch from Service B ($90) to Service A ($80) to receive a more accurate and objective estimate. The “objective valuation” motive helps companies meet regulatory requirements and ensure estimates reflect true market value. What’s more, the objective valuation motive helps curb managerial buccaneering.

The study looks at when and why life insurance companies will switch their third-party review service. The team finds that both motives — opinion shopping and objective valuation — are common. Sometimes companies want to better align their fair value estimates with what similar assets are trading for in the market. Other times, they want assets to look better on paper.

Of the two motives, opinion shopping is the more dominant, particularly when they are in conflict with each other. On the whole, evidence suggests that companies switch price sources strategically to inflate estimates and avoid losses, rather than to get more accurate estimates.

The study has implications for investors, regulators and researchers. “Opinion shopping” could be prevalent in non-financial industries, as well — especially public firms with capital market incentives. More disclosure around price sources could improve estimate reliability.

Future research could examine asset valuation practices and motives in other sectors such as banking, real estate and equity investments. Are some industries more prone to opinion shopping than others? What factors make opinion shopping or objective valuation more likely? Are there certain signals or patterns that indicate when a company is opinion shopping versus seeking objectivity?

Answers to these questions could help discern acceptable from unacceptable third-party source switching. And understanding if certain types of companies are more at risk could help regulators and auditors focus their efforts.

The bottom line:

Accurate accounting matters. While external sources are better for measuring the fair value of any given asset, companies can distort the very concept of fair value estimates by changing their source. More rigor, transparency and auditing around price sources could curb manipulation and improve estimate reliability.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Shiva Sivaramakrishnan, the Henry Gardiner Symonds Professor of Accounting at Rice Business.

Research shows that some corporate executives skew earnings to influence the market and inflate share price. Photo via Pexels

Rice University research finds market outliers at risk of misreporting

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Say a company called CoolConsumerGoodsCo has just released its quarterly earnings report, revealing significantly higher profits than its consumer goods industry counterparts.

That result might spur analysts to slap a buy rating on the stock and investors to snap up shares. In an ideal world, the market wouldn't have to consider the possibility that the numbers aren't legit — but then again, it's not an ideal world. (Enron, anyone?)

Rice Business professors Brian R. Rountree and Shiva Sivaramakrishnan, along with Andrew B. Jackson at UNSW in Australia, studied what makes business leaders more likely to engage in fraudulent earnings reporting. Specifically, they focused on the relationship between this kind of misrepresentation and the degree to which a company's earnings are in line with the rest of its industry — a variable the researchers term "co-movements."

Many people are familiar with a similar variable, calculated using stock returns often referred to as a company's beta. The authors adapted the stock return beta to corporate earnings to see how a company's earnings move with earnings at the industry level.

The researchers hypothesized that the less in sync a company's earnings are with its industry, the higher the chance a company's leaders will manipulate earnings reports. They started with the well-accepted premise that corporations try to skew earnings reports to influence the market. The primary motive is typically to raise the company's stock price, as when an executive tries to "choose a level of bias" that balances potential fallout of getting caught against the benefits of a higher stock price.

To test their prediction, the professors analyzed a sample of enforcement actions taken by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission against companies for problematic financial reporting from 1970 to 2011 — although they noted that given the SEC's limited resources, the number of enforcement actions probably underestimates the actual amount of earnings manipulation in the market.

Their analysis revealed that firms with low earnings co-movements (meaning their earnings were out of sync with industry peers) were more likely to be accused by the SEC of reporting misdeeds. They concluded that the degree of earnings co-movement determines the probability of earnings manipulation. Put another way, earnings co-movements are a "causal factor" in the chances of earnings manipulations — and to a significant degree. The researchers found that firms who don't co-move with the market are more than 50 percent more likely to face an SEC enforcement action, compared with firms who are perfectly aligned with the market.

The researchers drilled deeper into the data to study whether the odds changed depending on the industry, since past research has indicated that the amount of competition in an industry works to constrain misreporting. That premise seems to hold true, the researchers concluded. In industries with more competitive markets, the impact of low co-movement on earnings manipulation is moderated.

They also studied whether the age of a firm played a part in the likelihood of earnings manipulation. Newer firms often rely more on stock compensation, which could be a motive for manipulating earnings reporting to drive up share price. Indeed, younger firms were more susceptible to misreporting when their earnings were out of whack with the rest of the marketplace.

Every firm faces some risk of misreporting, however. Even for public companies under analyst scrutiny, low co-movement proved to be a driver of earnings manipulation. But companies known for conservative reporting tend to be less likely to exaggerate their earnings, in general; these firms typically recognize losses in a more timely manner, the professors found.

These findings suggest a number of future lines of research. For example: When do executives underreport earnings? And can analyzing patterns related to cash flow reporting help better isolate earnings manipulation?

In the meantime, if you come across a company like CoolConsumerGoodsCo with an earnings report that's widely out of sync with the rest of its industry, you might think twice before rushing to buy in.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and is based on research from Brian R. Rountree, an associate professor of accounting at the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University, and Shiva Sivaramakrishnan is the Henry Gardiner Symonds Professor of Accounting at Rice Business.

In a recent study, a Rice Business professor found that board members actually need incentives — both short- and long-term — to act in stakeholders' best interests. Getty Images

Rice University research finds executive board members are driven by incentives

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If you're a stockholder, you may envision your investment helmed by a benevolent, all-knowing board of directors, sitting around a long finely-grained wooden table, drinking coffee, their heads buried in PowerPoint charts as they labor to plot the best course for the company. Too often, however, you can't take for granted that a company's board will steer it wisely.

Companies choose directors because they offer rich and varied experience in the business world. Many who serve on boards, moreover, are CEOs of other corporations, or have headed big companies in the past. As of October 2018, for example, six of the 11 directors on Walmart's board and eight of 13 on AT&T's board hold CEO or CFO positions in other firms. So it's easy to assume that board members will act in the best interests of stockholders.

But in a recent study, Rice Business professor Shiva Sivaramakrishnan found that board members actually need incentives — both short- and long-term — to act in stakeholders' best interests.

Corporations usually compensate board members with stock options, grants, equity stakes, meeting fees, and cash retainers. How important is such compensation, and what sort of incentives do board members need to perform in the very best interests of a company? Sivaramakrishnan joined co-author George Drymiotes to trace how compensation impacts various aspects of board performance.

Recent literature in corporate governance has already stressed the need to give boards of directors explicit incentives in order to safeguard shareholder welfare. Some observers have even proposed requiring outside board members to hold substantial equity interests. The National Association of Corporate Directors, for example, recommended that boards pay their directors solely with cash or stock, with equity representing a substantial portion of the total, up to 100 percent.

To the extent that directors hold stock in a company, their actions are likely influenced by a variety of long-and short-term incentives. And while the literature has focused mainly on the useful long-term impact of equity awards, the consequences of short-term incentives haven't been as clear. Moreover, according to surveys, most directors view advising as their primary role. But this role also has received little attention.

To scrutinize these issues, the scholars used a simple model, which assumes the board of directors perform three roles: contracting, monitoring and consulting. The board contracts with management to provide productive input that improves a firm's performance. By monitoring management, the board improves the quality of the information conveyed to managers. By serving in a consulting role, the board makes managers more productive, which, in turn, means higher expected firm output.

This model allowed the scholars to better understand the relationship between the board of directors and the company's managers, as well as with shareholders. The former was particularly important to take into account, because conflict between a board and managers is typically unobservable and can be costly.

The results were surprising. Without short-term incentives, the researchers found, boards did not effectively fulfill their multiple roles. Long-term inducements could make a difference, they found, but only in some aspects of board performance.

While board members were better advisors when given long-term motivations, short-term incentives were better motivators for performing well in their other corporate governance roles, according to the research, which tied specific aspects of board compensation to particular board functions.

Restricted equity awards provided the necessary long-term incentives to improve the efficacy of the board's advisory role, the scholars found, but only the short-term incentives, awarding an unrestricted share or a bonus based on short-term performance, motivated conscientious monitoring.

The scholars also examined managerial misconduct. Board monitoring, they concluded, lowered the cost of preventing such wrongdoing — but only if the board had strong short-term incentives in place.

Even at the highest rungs of the corporate ladder, in other words, short-term self-interest is the greatest motivator. Maybe it's not surprising. In the corporate world, acting for one's own benefit is a given — so stockholders need to look more closely at those at the very top. Like everyone else, board directors need occasional brass rings within easy reach to do their best.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom.

Shiva Sivaramakrishnan is the Henry Gardiner Symonds Professor in Accounting at the Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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2 Houston space tech cos. celebrate major tech milestones

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Two Houston aerospace companies — Intuitive Machines and Venus Aerospace — have reached testing milestones for equipment they’re developing.

Intuitive Machines recently completed the first round of “human in the loop” testing for its Moon RACER (Reusable Autonomous Crewed Exploration Rover) lunar terrain vehicle. The company conducted the test at NASA’s Johnson Space Center.

RACER is one of three lunar terrain vehicles being considered by NASA for the space agency’s Artemis initiative, which will send astronauts to the moon.

NASA says human-in-the-loop testing can reveal design flaws and technical problems, and can lead to cost-efficient improvements. In addition, it can elevate the design process from 2D to 3D modeling.

Intuitive Machines says the testing “proved invaluable.” NASA astronauts served as test subjects who provided feedback about the Moon RACER’s functionality.

The Moon RACER, featuring a rechargeable electric battery and a robotic arm, will be able to accommodate two astronauts and more than 880 pounds of cargo. It’s being designed to pull a trailer loaded with more than 1,760 pounds of cargo.

Another Houston company, Venus Aerospace, recently achieved ignition of its VDR2 rocket engine. The engine, being developed in tandem with Ohio-based Velontra — which aims to produce hypersonic planes — combines the functions of a rotating detonation rocket engine with those of a ramjet.

A rotating detonation rocket engine, which isn’t equipped with moving parts, rapidly burns fuel via a supersonic detonation wave, according to the Air Force Research Laboratory. In turn, the engine delivers high performance in a small volume, the lab says. This savings in volume can offer range, speed, and affordability benefits compared with ramjets, rockets, and gas turbines.

A ramjet is a type of “air breathing” jet engine that does not include a rotary engine, according to the SKYbrary electronic database. Instead, it uses the forward motion of the engine to compress incoming air.

A ramjet can’t function at zero airspeed, so it can’t power an aircraft during all phases of flight, according to SKYbrary. Therefore, it must be paired with another kind of propulsion, such as a rotating detonation rocket engine, to enable acceleration at a speed where the ramjet can produce thrust.

“With this successful test and ignition, Venus Aerospace has demonstrated the exceptional ability to start a [ramjet] at takeoff speed, which is revolutionary,” the company says.

Venus Aerospace plans further testing of its engine in 2025.

Venus Aerospace, recently achieved ignition of its VDR2 rocket engine. Photo courtesy of Venus Aerospace

METRO rolls out electric shuttles for downtown Houston commuters

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The innovative METRO microtransit program will be expanding to the downtown area, the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County announced on Monday.

“Microtransit is a proven solution to get more people where they need to go safely and efficiently,” Houston Mayor John Whitmire said in a statement. “Connected communities are safer communities, and bringing microtransit to Houston builds on my promise for smart, fiscally-sound infrastructure growth.”

The program started in June 2023 when the city’s nonprofit Evolve Houston partnered with the for-profit Ryde company to offer free shuttle service to residents of Second and Third Ward. The shuttles are all-electric and take riders to bus stops, medical buildings, and grocery stores. Essentially, it works as a traditional ride-share service but focuses on multiple passengers in areas where bus access may involve hazards or other obstacles. Riders access the system through the Ride Circuit app.

So far, the microtransit system has made a positive impact in the wards according to METRO. This has led to the current expansion into the downtown area. The system is not designed to replace the standard bus service, but to help riders navigate to it through areas where bus service is more difficult.

“Integrating microtransit into METRO’s public transit system demonstrates a commitment to finding innovative solutions that meet our customers where they are,” said METRO Board Chair Elizabeth Gonzalez Brock. “This on-demand service provides a flexible, easier way to reach METRO buses and rail lines and will grow ridership by solving the first- and last-mile challenges that have hindered people’s ability to choose METRO.”

The City of Houston approved a renewal of the microtransit program in July, authorizing Evolve Houston to spend $1.3 million on it. Some, like council member Letitia Plummer, have questioned whether microtransit is really the future for METRO as the service cuts lines such as the University Corridor.

However, the microtransit system serves clear and longstanding needs in Houston. Getting to and from bus stops in the city with its long blocks, spread-out communities, and fickle pedestrian ways can be difficult, especially for poor or disabled riders. While the bus and rail work fine for longer distances, shorter ones can be underserved.

Even in places like downtown where stops are plentiful, movement between them can still involve walks of a mile or more, and may not serve for short trips.

“Our microtransit service is a game-changer for connecting people, and we are thrilled to launch it in downtown Houston,” said Evolve executive director Casey Brown. “The all-electric, on-demand service complements METRO’s existing fixed-route systems while offering a new solution for short trips. This launch marks an important milestone for our service, and we look forward to introducing additional zones in the new year — improving access to public transit and local destinations.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Cart.com's M&A move, energy innovators recognized, and more top articles from the week

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Editor's note:Let's roundup the most-read Houston innovation news from the week. Trending Houston tech and startup articles from InnovationMap and its daily newsletter included a new health tech grant for Houston researchers, Cart.com's latest acquisition, and more.

Houston med school lands $3.5M grant to rollout genetic telehealth platform for underserved newborns

Baylor College of Medicine received $3.5 million to expand its telehealth platform to improve genomic diagnostics and care for critically ill newborns in underserved neonatal intensive care units in West and South Texas. Photo by Tim Bish on Unsplash

Baylor College of Medicine received $3.5 million to help hospitals in Texas better care for and diagnose some of the state's most vulnerable patients.

The funds come from the National Human Genome Research Institute for the Making Genomics Accessible to Newborns in Texas, or MAGNET, program. They'll be used to adapt BCM's Consultagene telehealth platform to be used in underserved neonatal intensive care units in West and South Texas, according to a statement.

Families in this region of the state currently can travel up to 300 miles to reach the nearest in-state geneticist, according to MAGNET. The program aims to help close that gap through BCM's established remote consultation service. Investigators also plan to create educational videos in English and Spanish to educate providers and patient caregivers on genetic diagnoses.

“Only 20 years ago, less than 3 percent of genetic conditions in newborns could be molecularly diagnosed,” Dr. Brendan Lee, co-principal investigator and professor and chair of the Department of Molecular and Human Genetics and Robert and Janice McNair Endowed Chair in Molecular and Human Genetics at BCM, says in a statement. Continue reading.

Houston e-commerce platform expands logistics network with acquisition of fulfillment operations arm

Cart.com has acquired OceanX, adding two new facilities and expanding its logistics network to enhance efficiency and support high-volume beauty, wellness, and lifestyle brands. Photo courtesy of Cart.com

A Houston e-commerce unicorn has made its latest strategic acquisition.

Cart.com, which operates a multichannel commerce platform, announced that it has acquired Guthy-Renker's wholly-owned fulfillment operations arm OceanX. The terms of the deal were not disclosed. Around 200 OceanX employees will be assumed onto the Cart.com team, and the fast-growing company will add two new facilities totaling over 600,000 square feet to its network, expanding to include a West Coast distribution hub in Southern California and its third facility near Columbus, Ohio.

"Acquiring OceanX is part of Cart.com’s strategy to continue to scale our platform and capabilities across industries, leveraging our proprietary technology to improve efficiency and deliver superior results to our clients and their customers,” Omair Tariq, Cart.com founder and CEO, says in a news release. “By deploying our Constellation OMS and WMS software and seasoned operations team across these two new facilities, we will improve order visibility, labor efficiency, shipping costs and customer satisfaction for the benefit of our new clients.” Continue reading.

3 clean energy innovators make Forbes list of top young energy professionals

Three young professionals have made the cut for this year's Forbes Under 30 list in the Energy and Green Tech list for 2025. Photos via Forbes

A handful of Houstonians have been named to the Forbes 30 Under 30 Energy and Green Tech list for 2025.

Kip Daujotas is an investment associate at Aramco Ventures, a $7.5 billion venture capital arm of the world's largest energy company. Houston is the Americas headquarters for Saudi Aramco. Since its inception in 2012, Aramco Ventures has invested in more than 100 tech startups. Daujotas joined the team over two years ago after studying for an MBA at Yale University. He led Aramco’s first direct air capture (DAC) investment — in Los Alamos, New Mexico-based Spiritus.

Also representing the corporate side of the industry, Wenting Gao immigrated from Beijing to obtain an economics degree from Harvard University, then got a job at consulting giant McKinsey, where she recently became the firm’s youngest partner. Gao works on bringing sustainability strategies to energy and materials companies as well as investors. Her areas of expertise include battery materials, waste, biofuels, and low-carbon products.

Last but not least, Houston entrepreneur Rawand Rasheed is co-founder and CEO of Houston-based Helix Earth. He co-founded the startup after earning a doctoral degree from Rice University and co-inventing Helix’s core technology while at NASA, first as a graduate research fellow and then as an engineer. The core technology, a space capsule air filtration system, has been applied to retrofitting HVAC systems for commercial buildings. Continue reading.

Rice University, Houston Methodist launch new institute to revolutionize health care through AI, innovation

Rice University and Houston Methodist have partnered to create the Digital Health Institute, combining advanced technology, artificial intelligence, and interdisciplinary expertise to transform health care. Photos courtesy

Rice University and Houston Methodist have established through a multi-year joint effort the Digital Health Institute, which aims to transform healthcare through advanced technology and the collaborative expertises of the university and hospital.

Rice’s leadership in engineering, digital health and artificial intelligence will combine with Houston Methodist’s academic medicine and research infrastructure.

“This partnership embodies Rice’s bold vision to lead at the forefront of innovation in health and responsible AI,” Rice President Reginald DesRoches says in a news release. “By combining our strengths with Houston Methodist, we are creating a transformative platform to address critical challenges in healthcare with solutions that are ethical, accessible and impactful. This initiative exemplifies our commitment to driving interdisciplinary collaboration and advancing global health for the benefit of humanity.” Continue reading.

2 Houston professors named as fellows for prestigious group of inventors

Omid Veiseh from Rice University and Edward Ratner from the University of Houston have been named 2024 National Academy of Inventors fellows for their innovative contributions. Courtesy photos

The highest professional distinction awarded to academic inventors, the National Academy of Inventors, have elected two fellows from Rice University and the University of Houston for its 2024 class.

Edward Ratner, computer information systems lecturer in the Department of Information Science Technology at the University of Houston’s Cullen College of Engineering, and Omid Veiseh, bioengineer at Rice University and director of the Biotech Launch Pad, were two of the 170 honorees representing 39 states and 12 countries.

The 2024 class will be honored and presented their medals on June 26 in Atlanta, Georgia by a senior official of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Continue reading.

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