Equity options can act as an alternative to credit default swaps for detecting a company’s credit risk. Photo via Getty Images

Up until the 2007-2009 financial crisis, credit default swaps (CDS) were a predominant method for predicting the probability of corporate default. CDS function like insurance for loan assets — if an asset defaults, the bank who purchased the CDS would recoup their loss. Higher-risk assets usually have higher premiums, and in this way the price of a CDS indicates the probability of default.

When the housing market crashed in 2007, the CDS market crashed along with it when banks had to pay out more than they had expected. The CDS market is not expected to ever return to its previous high, leaving a void in market-driven estimates for determining an asset’s default probability.

To fill that void, a team of researchers including Rice Business Professor Robert Dittmar created an alternative method for measuring default risk: equity options data. The team found that equity options not only correlate with CDS data in terms of accurate prediction of default but also provide additional insights on what types of assets are more likely to default, and when they will default.

There are two types of options, a call option, which is essentially a bet that a stock’s price will be higher than a contracted value (the strike price) and a put option, which is a bet that a stock’s price will be less than a contracted value.

A put is often viewed as an insurance contract — if you hold a stock, but also a put option on it, you limit your loss on the stock if the stock price falls.

“What we are looking at is essentially how expensive put options get,” says Dittmar. “If the market thinks a company is likely to default, it expects that its stock value will fall (almost to zero). As a result, put options, which represent insurance against this loss become more expensive. We are looking at how these option prices change to see if they inform us about the probabilities of default.”

According to Dittmar and his team, this approach has several advantages. 1) There are more stocks with options than CDS. 2) The CDS market is drying up whereas the option market remains liquid. And 3) Because of the nature of an option contract, and the fact that in principle equity holders have the lowest claim on a company’s assets, this approach may allow investors to predict losses in case of default.

The team looked at CDS quotes on 276 firms between 2002 and 2017, focusing attention on entities that had quote data available on one-year credit default swaps. The 15-year sample enabled the researchers to analyze the money lost through defaults over a longer period of time, including the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Using equity options data as a predictor of default led to some interesting insights. First, there are two components that investors in corporate bonds think about when weighing default risk — the probability of default and (should there be a default) how much of the bond’s principal they will get back (i.e., recovery rate). “What we see is that credit ratings imply different levels of default thresholds, which may mean that investors believe that there are differences in the amount that debt holders will lose in the case of default,” says Dittmar.

Second, option-implied default probabilities correlate to historical changes in the economy. Default probabilities are higher in bad economic times and for firms with poorer credit ratings and financial positions. Default spikes are more likely during times of economic turbulence, such as the financial crisis of 2007-2009, which correlated with the decline of the CDS market after an onslaught of debt defaults during the recession. Assets are less likely to default during times of economic expansion. Over the period of 2013-2017, forecasted losses through defaults hovered around 15%.

The research sample ends in 2017, and the paper was published in 2020, about a month after the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Since then, there have been unprecedented changes in the economy, and some economists are anticipating another recession in 2023. With such instability in the market, multiple methods of predicting losses should be especially relevant. This research suggests that the equity options market may provide additional ways of finding the probability of these losses.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Robert Dittmar, professor of finance at the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Axiom Space launches semiconductor and astronaut training initiatives

space projects

Axiom Space, a Houston-based commercial spaceflight and space infrastructure company, has launched initiatives in two very different spheres — semiconductors and astronaut training.

On the semiconductor front, Axiom has signed a memorandum of understanding with Japanese chemical company Resonac Corp. to collaborate on semiconductor R&D and manufacturing projects carried out in space. Among Resonac’s products are materials used in chip manufacturing.

Axiom said the deal “paves the way toward leveraging microgravity to advance next-generation chip technologies and accelerate the in-space manufacturing market.”

Under the agreement, Axiom and Resonac will explore the potential production of semiconductor materials and chip packaging in microgravity and low-Earth-orbit environments.

“The unique environment of space offers immense potential for advancing semiconductor materials, especially in crystal growth,” Masato Fukushima, Resonac’s chief technology officer, said in a news release.

The deal will also extend Resonac’s work with Axiom on the development of molding compounds that can reduce “soft errors” when semiconductor devices are exposed to space radiation.

“Our collaboration with Resonac underscores how Axiom Space is enabling global corporations from around the world to leverage space to drive manufacturing innovation across critical technology sectors such as semiconductors,” Axiom astronaut Koichi Wakata, the company’s chief technology officer, said.

In the astronaut training arena, Axiom has tapped Portuguese physiologist Emiliano Ventura as its first “Project Astronaut.” Ventura will apply his expertise in human performance to a pilot program aimed at testing six-month astronaut training protocols.

“His goal is to participate in a future mission and explore, with scientific depth and curiosity, how the human body adapts to microgravity, contributing fresh insights to the current body of research in space physiology,” Axiom said.

Ventura has helped several Axiom crewmembers with physiological needs before and after missions aboard the International Space Station.

Axiom said Ventura’s pilot program will study astronauts’ physiological responses to microgravity during spaceflight. The program eventually will benefit Axiom astronauts heading to the world’s first commercial space station, which is being built by Axiom.

Michael López-Alegria, Axiom’s chief astronaut, said he and the company’s two other astronauts will train with Ventura. The Project Astronaut initiative “strengthens our commitment to enabling safe, effective, and inspiring commercial space missions while supporting scientific objectives worldwide.” López-Alegria said.

Houston scientist launches new app to support mental health professionals

App for that

One Houston-based mental health scientist is launching a new app-based approach to continuing education that she hopes will change the way doctors, therapists, and social workers evolve in their field.

The app, MHNTI, is named for its parent company, the Mental Health Network & Training Institute. It's a one-stop shop for mental health professionals to find trainers, expert consultations, local providers, webinars, and other tools related to licensure certification and renewal.

Free and paid tiers offer different levels of access, but both offer doctors, counselors, and more an easier way to engage with continuing education. When a mental health professional is looking to expand their knowledge in a way that coincides with CE requirements, MHNTI provides it; as easy as using Amazon.

"We built MHNTI for the clinicians craving meaningful, ongoing training that fits real-life schedules," said Dr. Elizabeth McIngvale. "MHNTI is more than an app. It's a movement to support mental health professionals at every career stage."

McIngvale, the daughter of celebrated Houston entrepreneur Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, co-founded MHNTI after becoming one of the leading experts on obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in the United States. Born with the condition herself, she suffered greatly as a child to the point that she required extensive repetitive rituals daily just to function. She responded to exposure with response prevention (ERP) treatment, earned her Ph.D. from the University of Houston, and is now the director at the OCD Institute of Texas.

This is not the first time she used the internet to try to improve the mental health industry. In 2018, she launched the OCD Challenge website, a free resource for people with OCD.

McIngvale's co-founder is New York-based doctor, entrepreneur, and author Lauren Wadsworth, another expert in OCD and other anxiety disorders. Like McIngvale, she understands that the labyrinthian world of continuing education can keep mental health professionals from achieving their potential.

"Mental health providers are often overworked and under-resourced. MHNTI is here to change that," said Wadsworth. "We're creating a space where clinicians can continuously learn, grow, and feel supported by experts who understand the work firsthand."

MHNTI is available in the App Store, Google Play, and for desktop.

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A version of this article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Announcing the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards finalists

Inspirational Innovators

InnovationMap is proud to reveal the finalists for the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards.

Taking place on November 13 at Greentown Labs, the fifth annual Houston Innovation Awards will honor the best of Houston's innovation ecosystem, including startups, entrepreneurs, mentors, and more.

This year's finalists were determined by our esteemed panel of judges, comprised of past award winners and InnovationMap editorial leadership.

The panel reviewed nominee applications across 10 prestigious categories to determine our finalists. They will select the winner for each category, except for Startup of the Year, which will be chosen by the public via online voting launching later this month.

We'll announce our 2025 Trailblazer Award recipient in the coming weeks, and then we'll unveil the rest of this year's winners live at our awards ceremony.

Get to know all of our finalists in more detail through editorial spotlights leading up to the big event. Then, join us on November 13 as we unveil the winners and celebrate all things Houston innovation. Tickets are on sale now — secure yours today.

Without further ado, here are the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards finalists:

Minority-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by BIPOC or LGBTQ+ representation:

  • Capwell Services
  • Deep Anchor Solutions
  • Mars Materials
  • Torres Orbital Mining (TOM)
  • Wellysis USA

Female-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by a woman:

  • Anning Corporation
  • Bairitone Health
  • Brain Haven
  • FlowCare
  • March Biosciences
  • TrialClinIQ

Energy Transition Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing a solution within renewables, climatetech, clean energy, alternative materials, circular economy and beyond:

  • Anning Corporation
  • Capwell Services
  • Deep Anchor Solutions
  • Eclipse Energy
  • Loop Bioproducts
  • Mars Materials
  • Solidec

Health Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup within the health and medical technology sectors:

  • Bairitone Health
  • Corveus Medical
  • FibroBiologics
  • Koda Health
  • NanoEar
  • Wellysis USA

Deep Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing technology solutions based on substantial scientific or engineering challenges, including those in the AI, robotics and space sectors:

  • ARIX Technologies
  • Little Place Labs
  • Newfound Materials
  • Paladin Drones
  • Persona AI
  • Tempest Droneworx

Startup of the Year (People's Choice)

Honoring a startup celebrating a recent milestone or success. The winner will be selected by the community via an online voting experience:

  • Eclipse Energy
  • FlowCare
  • MyoStep
  • Persona AI
  • Rheom Materials
  • Solidec

Scaleup of the Year

Honoring an innovative later-stage startup that's recently reached a significant milestone in company growth:

  • Coya Therapeutics
  • Fervo Energy
  • Koda Health
  • Mati Carbon
  • Molecule
  • Utility Global

Incubator/Accelerator of the Year

Honoring a local incubator or accelerator that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups:

  • Activate
  • Energy Tech Nexus
  • Greentown Labs
  • Healthtech Accelerator (TMCi)
  • Impact Hub Houston

Mentor of the Year

Honoring an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs. Presented by Houston Community College:

  • Anil Shetty, Inform AI
  • Jason Ethier, EnergyTech Nexus
  • Jeremy Pitts, Activate
  • Joe Alapat, Liongard
  • Neal Dikeman, Energy Transition Ventures
  • Nisha Desai, Intention

Trailblazer Recipient

  • To be announced
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Interested in sponsoring the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards? Contact sales@innovationmap.com for details.