Houston booms as No. 2 U.S. market for retail construction in 2025

Construction Zone

Only Dallas surpasses Houston for retail construction right now. Getty Images

Get ready for a gigantic cartload of new shopping opportunities in Houston. A new report indicates the equivalent of 21 Walmart supercenters is under construction in the region.

The report, published by commercial real estate services provider Lee & Associates, says Houston has nearly 3.9 million square feet of retail space under construction, making it the second most active market for new retail space in the U.S.

To put that in perspective, given the average Walmart supercenter measures 182,000 square feet, the 3.9 million-square-foot total would work out to 21 new supercenters being built in the region.

Dallas-Fort Worth is by far the most active U.S. market for new retail space; DFW leads more than 60 U.S. retail markets with nearly 7.15 million square feet of space under construction. The amount of retail space going up in DFW represents 15 percent of all retail space under construction in the more than 60 U.S. markets tracked by Lee & Associates.

Houston and Austin aren’t too far behind Dallas-Fort Worth, though.

Third-ranked Austin area has more than 3.4 million square feet of retail space being built.

What’s behind the surge in retail construction across Texas? Population growth.

Data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows Houston was the second-fastest-growing metro from 2023 to 2024. DFW was the country’s third-fastest-growing metro from 2023 to 2024, based on the number of new residents, and Austin landed at No. 13.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

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Houston gained 43,217 residents from July 2023 to July 2024. Photo via Getty Images

Houston boasts No. 2 biggest population gain in U.S., Census data shows

Boomtown

Houston saw the second-highest population increase in the United States in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The new population report revealed Houston gained 43,217 residents from July 2023 to July 2024, bringing the city's population to 2,390,125.

Houston hung on to its ranking as the fourth largest city in the country and joined 11 other Southern cities that saw the largest numeric population gains in 2024, the report added.

Elsewhere in Texas, Fort Worth is now home to more than 1 million residents, surpassing Austin as the 11th largest city in the U.S. Fort Worth had the fifth-highest numeric increase in population, adding 23,442 residents during that same time frame to bring the city's total population to 1,008,106 residents.

Dallas retained its No. 9 spot on the list of the 15 most populous cities in the U.S. The city gained more than 23,000 residents during the one-year period, bringing its population to 1,326,087 people in 2024.


Austin slipped two spots and now ranks as the 13th largest city after adding more than 13,000 residents to bring the Texas Capital's population to 993,588.

San Antonio gained 23,945 residents — the fourth-highest increase nationwide — and was the only other city besides Houston to have a higher numerical growth rate than Fort Worth during the one-year period.

Fastest-growing U.S. cities
Princeton, a North Texas suburb of Dallas, topped the charts as the No. 1 fastest-growing U.S. city in 2024. The Census Bureau says the city's population has more than doubled in the last five years to more than 37,000 residents.

Fulshear, 34 miles from downtown Houston, has continued its rapid expansion as the second-fastest growing city. The suburb grew nearly 27 percent since the previous year, and its population rose to 54,629 residents as of July 2024.

Five additional Texas cities made the list of fastest-growing U.S. cities:

  • Celina, near Dallas (No. 4) with 18.2 percent growth (51,661 total population)
  • Anna, near Dallas (No. 5) with 14.6 percent growth (31,986 total population)
  • Fate, near Dallas (No. 8) with 11.4 percent growth (27,467 total population)
  • Melissa, near Dallas (No. 11) with 10 percent growth (26,194 total population)
  • Hutto, near Austin (No. 13) with 9.4 percent growth (42,661 total population)

The Austin suburb of Georgetown's growth has continued to slow down since 2023, and it no longer appears in the list of fastest-growing cities. However, it did surpass 100,000 residents in 2024. San Angelo, a small city in West Texas, also surpassed the 100,000-population threshold.

Most populous U.S. cities in 2024
New York City maintained its stronghold as the biggest in America in 2024, boasting a population of nearly 8.5 million residents. Los Angeles and Chicago also retained second and third place, with respective populations of nearly 3.88 million and more than 2.7 million residents.

"Cities in the Northeast that had experienced population declines in 2023 are now experiencing significant population growth, on average," said Crystal Delbé, a statistician in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. "In fact, cities of all sizes, in all regions, showed faster growth and larger gains than in 2023, except for small cities in the South, whose average population growth rate remained the same."

The 15 populous U.S. cities as of July 1, 2024 were:

  • No. 1 – New York, New York (8.48 million)
  • No. 2 – Los Angeles, California (3.88 million)
  • No. 3 – Chicago, Illinois (2.72 million)
  • No. 4 – Houston, Texas (2.39 million)
  • No. 5 – Phoenix, Arizona (1.67 million)
  • No. 6 – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1.57 million)
  • No. 7 – San Antonio, Texas (1.53 million)
  • No. 8 – San Diego, California (1.4 million)
  • No. 9 – Dallas, Texas (1.33 million)
  • No. 10 – Jacksonville, Florida (1 million)
  • No. 11 – Fort Worth, Texas (1 million)
  • No. 12 – San Jose, California (997,368)
  • No. 13 – Austin, Texas (993,588)
  • No. 14 – Charlotte, North Carolina (943,476)
  • No. 15 – Columbus, Ohio (933,263)
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A version of this article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Fulshear is growing faster than any other wealthy suburb. Photo courtesy of City of Fulshear/Facebook

This Houston neighbor was the fastest growing U.S. city in last decade

Booming Burb

It's no secret that Houston's population is growing faster than most other metros in the U.S., but now a surprising Houston-area neighbor has been named the No. 1 fastest-growing suburb nationwide over the last decade: the booming city of Fulshear.

Fulshear led the nation with an astonishing 1,082 percent increase in population from 2014 to 2023, according to a recent growth study by marketplace platform StorageCafe.

Overall, Texas cities dominated StorageCafe's list of the top 10 fastest-growing U.S. cities from 2014 to 2023.

The report said the city had nearly 27,000 residents in 2023, but now the U.S. Census Bureau estimates Fulshear's population has now grown to more than 42,600 people.

"With its blend of a relaxed lifestyle, urban conveniences, top-rated schools and strong job opportunities, Fulshear consistently ranks among the best places to live in Texas," the report's author wrote.

This isn't the first time Fulshear has entered the spotlight for its exploding population: it was the No. 2 fastest-growing U.S. city in 2023, and recently came out on top of GoBankingRates' new study ranking of the fastest-growing affluent suburbs in America for 2025.

Several other Houston-area suburbs also saw major growth over the last decade, including Manvel (No. 24), Katy (No. 82), and Conroe (No. 83).

"Manvel doubled its population between 2014 and 2023, while Katy and Conroe each recorded increases of over 50 percent," the report said. "By contrast, Houston itself grew by just 6 percent, aligning with the average growth rate for large U.S. cities."

The report added that the Houston area's population surge has also led to a high demand for housing, where home values have risen 60 percent over the last 10 years. Home prices in Fulshear stood at more than $521,000 in November 2024, whereas Manvel's home prices were over $431,000 during that same period.

For comparison, the national average price of a home is $354,000.

Katy and Conroe had the most affordable home prices out of the four Houston suburbs in the report, at $347,740 and $318,952, respectively, for November.

StorageCafe says the reasons for population shifts vary greatly, with many people seeking out cities with a more affordable cost of living, or those moving for socioeconomic factors like better employment opportunities.

"Population growth is far from even across the U.S. Some cities are experiencing significant increases, directly driven by steady in-migration, rising immigration and birth rates outpacing death rates," the report said. "But what’s fueling these trends runs deeper — economic and social forces like shifting job markets, the rise of remote and hybrid work and soaring living costs are all reshaping where people choose to live."

Other fast-growing Texas cities
Texas had the greatest number of cities to earn spots in the report's ranking of the 100 fastest-growing U.S. cities over the last decade, with 25 total cities making the cut with the highest growth rates nationwide.

Dallas-Fort Worth had the highest number of fastest-growing Texas suburbs on the list, comprising 11 cities: Celina (No. 2), Melissa (No. 3), Princeton (No. 7), Prosper (No. 8), Fate (No. 9), Anna (No. 14), Midlothian (No. 33), Royse City (No. 43), Forney (No. 45), Little Elm (No. 58), and Frisco (No. 72).

Meanwhile, Austin had five suburbs land on the list: Manor (No. 6), Leander (No. 16), Kyle (No. 53), Hutto (No. 54), and Buda (No. 68).

San Antonio also had five suburbs make the top 100, including Boerne (No. 63), Selma (No. 74), Fair Oaks Ranch (No. 70), New Braunfels (No. 77), and Canyon Lake (No. 99).

The top 10 fastest-growing cities over the last decade are:

  • No. 1 – Fulshear, Texas
  • No. 2 – Woodbridge, Virginia
  • No. 3 – Celina, Texas
  • No. 4 – Davenport, Florida
  • No. 5 – Melissa, Texas
  • No. 6 – Manor, Texas
  • No. 7 – Princeton, Texas
  • No. 8 – Prosper, Texas
  • No. 9 – Fate, Texas
  • No. 10 – Nolensville, Tennessee
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This article originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap.com.

Five Houstonians are on Inc.'s Female Founders 500 list for 2025. Courtesy photos

Trailblazing Houston leaders and more innovation news to know right now

Trending News

Editor's note: It's time to look back at the top Houston innovation and business news for the second half of March 2025. InnovationMap's top stories include female founders in the Inc. spotlight, an inaugural list of top local business and civic leaders, Harris County's population boom, and more. Read more below.

1. Texas robotics co. begins new search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370

Ocean Infinity will begin a new search for MH370. Ocean Infinity/Facebook

Malaysia’s government has given final approval for a Texas-based marine robotics company to renew the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean more than a decade ago.

Cabinet ministers agreed to terms and conditions for a “no-find, no-fee” contract with Texas-based Ocean Infinity to resume the seabed search operation at a new 5,800-square-mile site in the ocean, Transport Minister Anthony Loke said in a statement. Ocean Infinity will be paid $70 million only if wreckage is discovered. Continue reading.

2. 5 Houston female founders land on coveted Inc. 500 list

Sassie Duggleby, Margo Jordan, Stephanie Murphy, Emily Cisek and Nina Magon were named to Inc.'s Female Founders 500 list for 2025. Photos courtesy the company's websites and social media pages.

Five Houston female founders have been recognized by Inc. Magazine for their innovations and for leading their industries forward.

The women were named to Inc.'s Female Founders 500 list, which features female entrepreneurs based in the U.S. The group attracted approximately $9 billion in 2024 revenue and $10.6 billion in funding, according to Inc.

“Female founders know what struggle is, but they’re also experts of improvisation, adaptability, and creativity. The women featured on this year’s list exemplify these qualities," Diana Ransom, Inc. executive editor said in a release. "Through times of uncertainty, their unwavering dedication and steadfast leadership are not only inspiring but vital to driving progress.” Continue reading.

3. Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Harris County now boasts a population of more than 5 million. Photo via Getty Images

Newly released U.S. Census Bureau data has revealed Harris County became the third most populous county nationwide in 2024, and it had the highest year-over-year growth rate from 2023.

The new population report, published this month, estimated year-over-year population data from 2023 to 2024 across all 3,144 U.S. counties, and 387 metro areas. Harris County's numeric growth rate outpaced all other U.S. counties from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, the report found. The Census Bureau estimated Harris County's population grew by 105,852 people year-over-year, bringing the total population to 5,009,302 residents. That's around a 2.16 percent growth rate. Continue reading.

4. Houston lab develops AI tool to improve neurodevelopmental diagnoses

A new AI tool from a Baylor College of Medicine Lab could help better diagnose specific types of autism spectrum disorder, epilepsy and developmental delay disorders. Photo via Getty Images.

One of the hardest parts of any medical condition is waiting for answers. Speeding up an accurate diagnosis can be a doctor’s greatest mercy to a family. A team at Baylor College of Medicine has created technology that may do exactly that.

Led by Dr. Ryan S. Dhindsa, assistant professor of pathology and immunology at Baylor and principal investigator at the Jan and Dan Duncan Neurological Research Institute at Texas Children’s Hospital, the scientists have developed an artificial intelligence-based approach that will help doctors to identify genes tied to neurodevelopmental disorders. Continue reading.

5. Houston's top 25 business and civic leaders named by local organization

The Center for Houston’s Future will celebrate its first Top 25 Business/Civic Leadership Forum Alumni group all year, kicking off with an event this week. Photo via Getty Images

As part of its 25th anniversary celebrations, the Center for Houston’s Future has named its first-ever group of Top 25 Business/Civic Leadership Forum Alumni, including energy transition CEOs and legendary craft brewery founders.

The group was selected from among 1,400 alumni of the Center for Houston's Future's Leadership Forum, which hosts two cohorts per year, bringing together leaders from across industries to focus on issues critical to the long-term success of Greater Houston. Continue reading.

Harris County now boasts a population of more than 5 million. Photo via Getty Images

Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Boomtown

Newly released U.S. Census Bureau data has revealed Harris County became the third most populous county nationwide in 2024, and it had the highest year-over-year growth rate from 2023.

The new population report, published this month, estimated year-over-year population data from 2023 to 2024 across all 3,144 U.S. counties, and 387 metro areas.

Harris County's numeric growth rate outpaced all other U.S. counties from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, the report found. The Census Bureau estimated Harris County's population grew by 105,852 people year-over-year, bringing the total population to 5,009,302 residents. That's around a 2.16 percent growth rate.

Los Angeles County, California (No. 1) and Illinois' Cook County (No. 2) are the only two U.S. counties that have larger populations than Harris County. Los Angeles County now boasts a population of nearly 9.76 million, while Cook County's has increased to more than 5.18 million people.

The top 10 most populous counties in the U.S. are:

  • No. 1 – Los Angles County, California
  • No. 2 – Cook County, Illinois
  • No. 3 – Harris County, Texas
  • No. 4 – Maricopa County, Arizona
  • No. 5 – San Diego County, California
  • No. 6 – Orange County, California
  • No. 7 – Miami-Dade County, Florida
  • No. 8 – Dallas County, Texas
  • No. 9 – Kings County, New York
  • No. 10 – Riverside County, California

Montgomery County also ranked among the top 10 U.S. counties with the highest numeric growth, ranking 9th nationally after gaining 34,268 residents from 2023 to 2024. Montgomery County's population has now grown to 749,613 people.

In the report's national comparison of counties with the largest population growth by percentage, Montgomery County ranked No. 7 with a year-over-year growth rate of 4.8 percent.

Most populated U.S. metro areas

The U.S. Census Bureau additionally found Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands nearly led the nation as the second-fastest growing metro area in 2024.

From July 2023 to July 2024, the Houston metro added 198,171 residents to bring the total population to 7,796,182.

New York-Newark-Jersey City was the only metro area to outpace Houston's growth during the one-year period. The New York-New Jersey metro added 213,403 new residents, which brought the total population to over 19.94 million last year.

Kristie Wilder, a Census Bureau Population Division demographer, said in the report that the nation's population growth in its major metros was largely impacted by international migration rather than changes in birth rates.

"While births continue to contribute to overall growth, rising net international migration is offsetting the ongoing net domestic outmigration we see in many of these areas," Wilder said.

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington was right behind Houston as the third-fastest growing U.S. metro in 2024. The Metroplex gained 177,922 residents last year, and now has a total population of more than 8.34 million.

The top 10 U.S. metros with the highest numeric growth from 2023 to 2024 are:

  • No. 1 – New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York-New Jersey
  • No. 2 – Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, Texas
  • No. 3 – Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
  • No. 4 – Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida
  • No. 5 – Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia
  • No. 6 – Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona
  • No. 7 – Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida
  • No. 8 – Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Georgia
  • No. 9 – Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois-Indiana
  • No. 10 – Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington
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This article originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap.com.

Fulshear is growing faster than any other wealthy suburb. Photo courtesy of City of Fulshear/Facebook

This Houston neighbor is the fastest growing wealthy suburb in America

By The Numbers

The Houston-area city of Fulshear is booming like nowhere else: It's now the No. 1 fast-growing affluent suburb in the country.

Fulshear's No. 1 status was unveiled in a new GoBankingRates' study that ranked the "30 Fastest Growing Wealthy Suburbs in America" for 2025. The report examined population changes from 2018 to 2023 among cities and towns in major U.S. metro areas with populations between 25,000 and 100,000 residents. Median household income, average home value, and a "livability score" were also calculated for each locale.

Fulshear, located 34 miles west of downtown Houston, experienced the most dramatic population increase out of all 30 cities in the report. Though the suburb only has an estimated population of 42,616 residents, that number has skyrocketed 237 percent during the five-year period.

A Fulshear resident's median income is $178,398 annually, and the average value of a home in the city comes out to $521,157, the report additionally found.

Fulshear was the second fastest growing city in America in 2023. The city's growth is further reflected by the number of new apartments that were built in the area in 2024.

Texas is tops
Texas cities took the top three fastest growing U.S. suburbs for 2025, with Dallas-area cities of Celina (No. 2) and Prosper (No. 3) experiencing wildly different (yet still sky high) population changes. Celina's population ballooned 190 percent to 43,317 residents, while Prosper's grew 81 percent to an estimated 41,660 people.

Other Texas cities that earned spots in the report include Flower Mound (No. 19), Southlake (No. 27), University Park (No. 28) and Colleyville (No. 29), all in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

"The old adage that everything is bigger in Texas is true, considering the number of Lone Star State suburbs that are quickly growing in population and overall wealth," the report's author wrote.

The top 10 fastest growing wealthy suburbs in America are:

  • No. 1 – Fulshear, Texas
  • No. 2 – Celina, Texas
  • No. 3 – Prosper, Texas
  • No. 4 – Erie, Colorado
  • No. 5 – Clarksburg, Maryland
  • No. 6 – Zionsville, Indiana
  • No. 7 – Redmond, Washington
  • No. 8 – Dublin, California
  • No. 9 – Parkland, Florida
  • No. 10 – Eastvale, California
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This story originally appeared on our sister site CultureMap.com.

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Intuitive Machines forms partnership with Italian companies for lunar exploration services

to the moon

Houston-based space technology, infrastructure and services company Intuitive Machines has forged a partnership with two Italian companies to offer infrastructure, communication and navigation services for exploration of the moon.

Intuitive Machines’ agreement with the two companies, Leonardo and Telespazio, paves the way for collaboration on satellite services for NASA, a customer of Intuitive Machines, and the European Space Agency, a customer of Leonardo and Telespazio. Leonardo, an aerospace, defense and security company, is the majority owner of Telespazio, a provider of satellite technology and services.

“Resilient, secure, and scalable space infrastructure and space data networks are vital to customers who want to push farther on the lunar surface and beyond to Mars,” Steve Altemus, co-founder and CEO of Intuitive Machine, said in a news release.

Massimo Claudio Comparini, managing director of Leonardo’s space division, added that the partnership with Intuitive Machines is a big step toward enabling human and robotic missions from the U.S., Europe and other places “to access a robust communications network and high-precision navigation services while operating in the lunar environment.”

Intuitive Machines recently expanded its Houston Spaceport facilities to ramp up in-house production of satellites. The company’s first satellite will launch with its upcoming IM‑3 lunar mission.

Intuitive Machines says it ultimately wants to establish a “center of space excellence” at Houston Spaceport to support missions to the moon, Mars and the region between Earth and the moon.

Houston hospitals win $50M grant for ibogaine addiction treatment research

ibogaine funding

The Texas Health and Human Services Commission has awarded $50 million to UTHealth Houston in collaboration with The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (UTMB Health) to co-lead a multicenter research trial to evaluate the effect of ibogaine, a powerful psychoactive compound, on patients suffering from addiction, traumatic brain injury and other behavioral health conditions.

The funding will establish a two-year initiative—known as Ibogaine Medicine for PTSD, Addiction, and Cognitive Trauma (IMPACT)—and a consortium of Texas health institutions focused on clinical trials and working toward potential FDA-approved treatments.

The consoritum will also include Texas Tech University, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center El Paso, The University of Texas at Austin, The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, The University of Texas at Tyler, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Texas A&M University, The University of North Texas Health Science Center, Baylor College of Medicine and JPS Health Network in Dallas.

Ibogaine is a plant-based, psychoactive substance derived from the iboga shrub. Research suggests that the substance could be used for potential treatment for patients with traumatic brain injuries, which is a leading cause of post-traumatic stress disorders. Ibogaine has also shown potential as a treatment for addiction and other neurological conditions.

UTHealth and partners will focus on ways that ibogaine can treat addiction and associated conditions. Meanwhile, UT Austin and Baylor College of Medicine will concentrate on using it to treat traumatic brain injury, especially in veterans, according to a news release from the institutions.

The consortium will also support drug developers and teaching hospitals to conduct FDA-approved clinical trials. The Texas Health and Human Services Commission will oversee the grant program.

“This landmark clinical trial reflects our unwavering commitment to advancing research that improves lives and delivers the highest standards of care,” Dr. Melina Kibbe, UTHealth Houston president and the Alkek-Williams Distinguished Chair, said in the news release. “By joining forces with outstanding partners across our state, we are building on Texas’ tradition of innovation to ensure patients struggling with addiction and behavioral health conditions have access to the best possible outcomes. Together, we are shaping discoveries that will serve Texans and set a model for the nation.”

The consortium was authorized by the passage of Senate Bill 2308. The bill provides $50 million in state-matching funds for an ibogaine clinical trial managed by a public university in partnership with a drug company and a hospital.

“This is the first major step towards the legislature’s goal of obtaining FDA approval through clinical trials of ibogaine — a potential breakthrough medication that has brought thousands of America’s war-fighters back from the darkest parts of depression, anxiety, PTSD, and chronic addiction,” Texas Rep. Cody Harris added in the release. “I am excited to walk alongside UTHealth Houston and UTMB as these stellar institutions lead the nation in a first-of-its-kind clinical trial in the U.S.”

Recently, the University of Houston also received a $2.6 million gift from the estate of Dr. William A. Gibson to support and expand its opioid addiction research, which includes the development of a fentanyl vaccine that could block the drug's ability to enter the brain. Read more here.

Tesla no longer world's biggest EV maker as sales fall for second year

Tesla Talk

Tesla lost its crown as the world’s bestselling electric vehicle maker as a customer revolt over Elon Musk’s right-wing politics, expiring U.S. tax breaks for buyers and stiff overseas competition pushed sales down for a second year in a row.

Tesla said that it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from a year earlier.

Chinese rival BYD, which sold 2.26 million vehicles last year, is now the biggest EV maker.

It's a stunning reversal for a car company whose rise once seemed unstoppable as it overtook traditional automakers with far more resources and helped make Musk the world's richest man. The sales drop came despite President Donald Trump's marketing effort early last year when he called a press conference to praise Musk as a “patriot” in front of Teslas lined up on the White House driveway, then announced he would be buying one, bucking presidential precedent to not endorse private company products.

For the fourth quarter, Tesla sales totaled 418,227, falling short of even the much reduced 440,000 target that analysts recently polled by FactSet had expected. Sales were hit hard by the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases that was phased out by the Trump administration at the end of September.

Tesla stock fell 2.6% to $438.07 on Friday.

Even with multiple issues buffeting the company, investors are betting that Tesla CEO Musk can deliver on his ambitions to make Tesla a leader in robotaxi services and get consumers to embrace humanoid robots that can perform basic tasks in homes and offices. Reflecting that optimism, the stock finished 2025 with a gain of approximately 11%.

The latest quarter was the first with sales of stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3 that Musk unveiled in early October as part of an effort to revive sales. The new Model Y costs just under $40,000 while customers can buy the cheaper Model 3 for under $37,000. Those versions are expected to help Tesla compete with Chinese models in Europe and Asia.

For fourth-quarter earnings coming out in late January, analysts are expecting the company to post a 3% drop in sales and a nearly 40% drop in earnings per share, according to FactSet. Analysts expect the downward trend in sales and profits to eventually reverse itself as 2026 rolls along.

Musk said earlier last year that a “major rebound” in sales was underway, but investors were unruffled when that didn't pan out, choosing instead to focus on Musk's pivot to different parts of business. He has has been saying the future of the company lies with its driverless robotaxis service, its energy storage business and building robots for the home and factory — and much less with car sales.

Tesla started rolling out its robotaxi service in Austin in June, first with safety monitors in the cars to take over in case of trouble, then testing without them. The company hopes to roll out the service in several cities this year.

To do that successfully, it needs to take on rival Waymo, which has been operating autonomous taxis for years and has far more customers. It also will also have to contend with regulatory challenges. The company is under several federal safety investigations and other probes. In California, Tesla is at risk of temporarily losing its license to sell cars in the state after a judge there ruled it had misled customers about their safety.

“Regulatory is going to be a big issue,” said Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a well-known bull on the stock. “We're dealing with people's lives.”

Still, Ives said he expects Tesla's autonomous offerings will soon overcome any setbacks.

Musk has said he hopes software updates to his cars will enable hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles to operate autonomously with zero human intervention by the end of this year. The company is also planning to begin production of its AI-powered Cybercab with no steering wheel or pedals in 2026.

To keep Musk focused on the company, Tesla’s directors awarded Musk a potentially enormous new pay package that shareholders backed at the annual meeting in November.

Musk scored another huge windfall two weeks ago when the Delaware Supreme Court reversed a decision that deprived him of a $55 billion pay package that Tesla doled out in 2018.

Musk could become the world's first trillionaire later this year when he sells shares of his rocket company SpaceX to the public for the first time in what analysts expect would be a blockbuster initial public offering.

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