Houston leads U.S. in population growth for 2025, Census says

Boomtown

The 10-county Houston metro added 126,720 residents from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Photo via Getty Images

Imagine that the Houston metro area swallowed a city the size of Pearland in just one year. That’s essentially what happened from 2024 to 2025, with the Houston metro ranking first in the U.S. for population growth based on the number of people.

New estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show the 10-county Houston metro added 126,720 residents from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. That’s just shy of Pearland’s roughly 133,000-resident tally.

To calculate population, the Census Bureau counts births, deaths, new residents, and moved-away residents.

Region’s population approaches 8 million

On July 1, 2025, the Houston metro’s population hovered slightly above 7.9 million, up 1.6 percent from the same time in 2024. In the very near future, the region’s population should break the eight million mark.

This follows massive growth in the past 20 years. From 2005 to 2025, the region’s population soared by 39 percent. By comparison, the growth rate from 2021 to 2025 sat at nine percent.

A forecast from the Texas Demographics Center indicates that under a middle-of-the-road scenario, the Houston metro’s population will reach nearly 8.5 million in mid-2030 and more than 9.5 million in mid-2040.

Dan Potter, director of Rice University’s Houston Population Research Center, attributes much of the region’s population surge to people moving to the area from outside the U.S. In Harris County, this means a combination of military personnel returning home, people living or working overseas coming back to the U.S., and immigrants relocating to the U.S., he tells CultureMap.

But Harris County fell short from 2024 to 2025 when it comes to people moving here from elsewhere in the U.S., according to Potter. Counties surrounding Harris County benefited from that trend, drawing new residents who preferred to settle in the suburbs.

“The incredible pull and attraction of the Houston area is its economy, its people, and its affordability, and the significant growth that was observed in 2024 and again in 2025 speaks to the magnetism of the region,” Potter says. “That pull to Houston is too strong to be turned off overnight.”

Cooling economy and immigration shifts slow down growth

Whether looking at urban or suburban places, population growth in the Houston area slowed in 2025 and appears to be slowing even more this year, Potter says.

“A cooling economy and changes to immigration policy are a one-two combination that could knock out the region’s population growth,” says Potter, citing the region’s addition of a less-than-expected 14,800 jobs in 2025 as an example.

Weaker population growth may not be felt evenly across the metro area, according to Potter.

A continuing influx of people from Houston to outlying counties such as Brazoria, Fort Bend, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller could curb growth in Harris County, Potter said. Why? If the number of people arriving from other other countries flattens or even drops, then there could be “doughnut-style population growth for the next few years, where Harris County and Houston see declines while the suburban counties see an increase.”

Harris County represents 40 percent of region’s population lift

Houston-anchored Harris County accounted for almost 40 percent of the region’s population spike from 2024 to 2025. In one year, Harris County grew by 48,695 residents, or 1 percent, pushing its population past five million. That increase put Harris County in first place for numeric growth (rather than percentage growth) among all U.S. counties.

From 2020 to 2025, Harris County’s growth rate was 6.6 percent. It remains the country’s third largest county based on population, behind Southern California’s Los Angeles County and Illinois’ Chicago-anchored Cook County.

Harris County is on track to surpass Cook County in size in the near future. As of July 1, 2025, a nearly 150,000-resident gap separated population-losing Cook County and fast-growing Harris County.

The Texas Demographics Center predicts Harris County’s population will be 5.37 million in mid-2030 and just short of six million in mid-2040.

Suburban counties see significant population gains

Harris County isn’t the only county in the area that experienced a growth spurt from 2024 to 2025:

  • Waller County’s population climbed 5.69 percent, winding up at 69,858. Its growth rate ranked second among U.S. counties.
  • Liberty County’s population rose 4.4 percent to 121,364, putting its growth rate in eighth place among U.S. counties.
  • Montgomery County gained 30,011 residents, with its population landing at 781,194. That placed it at No. 4 among U.S. counties for numeric growth.
  • Fort Bend County picked up 24,163 residents, arriving at a total of 975,191 and positioning it at No. 8 among U.S. counties for numeric growth. Fort Bend County, the region’s second largest county based on population, is projected to break the one million-resident mark by July 2030, according to the Texas Demographics Center.

“Lower mortgage rates from 2009 to 2022 and the rise of remote work have made suburban housing more attractive, especially for families seeking affordability,” Pramod Sambidi, the Houston-Galveston Area Council’s assistant director of data analytics and research, said last year. “Additionally, suburban areas are seeing more multifamily developments than before the pandemic.”

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

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Only Dallas surpasses Houston for retail construction right now. Getty Images

Houston booms as No. 2 U.S. market for retail construction in 2025

Construction Zone

Get ready for a gigantic cartload of new shopping opportunities in Houston. A new report indicates the equivalent of 21 Walmart supercenters is under construction in the region.

The report, published by commercial real estate services provider Lee & Associates, says Houston has nearly 3.9 million square feet of retail space under construction, making it the second most active market for new retail space in the U.S.

To put that in perspective, given the average Walmart supercenter measures 182,000 square feet, the 3.9 million-square-foot total would work out to 21 new supercenters being built in the region.

Dallas-Fort Worth is by far the most active U.S. market for new retail space; DFW leads more than 60 U.S. retail markets with nearly 7.15 million square feet of space under construction. The amount of retail space going up in DFW represents 15 percent of all retail space under construction in the more than 60 U.S. markets tracked by Lee & Associates.

Houston and Austin aren’t too far behind Dallas-Fort Worth, though.

Third-ranked Austin area has more than 3.4 million square feet of retail space being built.

What’s behind the surge in retail construction across Texas? Population growth.

Data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows Houston was the second-fastest-growing metro from 2023 to 2024. DFW was the country’s third-fastest-growing metro from 2023 to 2024, based on the number of new residents, and Austin landed at No. 13.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston gained 43,217 residents from July 2023 to July 2024. Photo via Getty Images

Houston boasts No. 2 biggest population gain in U.S., Census data shows

Boomtown

Houston saw the second-highest population increase in the United States in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The new population report revealed Houston gained 43,217 residents from July 2023 to July 2024, bringing the city's population to 2,390,125.

Houston hung on to its ranking as the fourth largest city in the country and joined 11 other Southern cities that saw the largest numeric population gains in 2024, the report added.

Elsewhere in Texas, Fort Worth is now home to more than 1 million residents, surpassing Austin as the 11th largest city in the U.S. Fort Worth had the fifth-highest numeric increase in population, adding 23,442 residents during that same time frame to bring the city's total population to 1,008,106 residents.

Dallas retained its No. 9 spot on the list of the 15 most populous cities in the U.S. The city gained more than 23,000 residents during the one-year period, bringing its population to 1,326,087 people in 2024.


Austin slipped two spots and now ranks as the 13th largest city after adding more than 13,000 residents to bring the Texas Capital's population to 993,588.

San Antonio gained 23,945 residents — the fourth-highest increase nationwide — and was the only other city besides Houston to have a higher numerical growth rate than Fort Worth during the one-year period.

Fastest-growing U.S. cities
Princeton, a North Texas suburb of Dallas, topped the charts as the No. 1 fastest-growing U.S. city in 2024. The Census Bureau says the city's population has more than doubled in the last five years to more than 37,000 residents.

Fulshear, 34 miles from downtown Houston, has continued its rapid expansion as the second-fastest growing city. The suburb grew nearly 27 percent since the previous year, and its population rose to 54,629 residents as of July 2024.

Five additional Texas cities made the list of fastest-growing U.S. cities:

  • Celina, near Dallas (No. 4) with 18.2 percent growth (51,661 total population)
  • Anna, near Dallas (No. 5) with 14.6 percent growth (31,986 total population)
  • Fate, near Dallas (No. 8) with 11.4 percent growth (27,467 total population)
  • Melissa, near Dallas (No. 11) with 10 percent growth (26,194 total population)
  • Hutto, near Austin (No. 13) with 9.4 percent growth (42,661 total population)

The Austin suburb of Georgetown's growth has continued to slow down since 2023, and it no longer appears in the list of fastest-growing cities. However, it did surpass 100,000 residents in 2024. San Angelo, a small city in West Texas, also surpassed the 100,000-population threshold.

Most populous U.S. cities in 2024
New York City maintained its stronghold as the biggest in America in 2024, boasting a population of nearly 8.5 million residents. Los Angeles and Chicago also retained second and third place, with respective populations of nearly 3.88 million and more than 2.7 million residents.

"Cities in the Northeast that had experienced population declines in 2023 are now experiencing significant population growth, on average," said Crystal Delbé, a statistician in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. "In fact, cities of all sizes, in all regions, showed faster growth and larger gains than in 2023, except for small cities in the South, whose average population growth rate remained the same."

The 15 populous U.S. cities as of July 1, 2024 were:

  • No. 1 – New York, New York (8.48 million)
  • No. 2 – Los Angeles, California (3.88 million)
  • No. 3 – Chicago, Illinois (2.72 million)
  • No. 4 – Houston, Texas (2.39 million)
  • No. 5 – Phoenix, Arizona (1.67 million)
  • No. 6 – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1.57 million)
  • No. 7 – San Antonio, Texas (1.53 million)
  • No. 8 – San Diego, California (1.4 million)
  • No. 9 – Dallas, Texas (1.33 million)
  • No. 10 – Jacksonville, Florida (1 million)
  • No. 11 – Fort Worth, Texas (1 million)
  • No. 12 – San Jose, California (997,368)
  • No. 13 – Austin, Texas (993,588)
  • No. 14 – Charlotte, North Carolina (943,476)
  • No. 15 – Columbus, Ohio (933,263)
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A version of this article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Fulshear is growing faster than any other wealthy suburb. Photo courtesy of City of Fulshear/Facebook

This Houston neighbor was the fastest growing U.S. city in last decade

Booming Burb

It's no secret that Houston's population is growing faster than most other metros in the U.S., but now a surprising Houston-area neighbor has been named the No. 1 fastest-growing suburb nationwide over the last decade: the booming city of Fulshear.

Fulshear led the nation with an astonishing 1,082 percent increase in population from 2014 to 2023, according to a recent growth study by marketplace platform StorageCafe.

Overall, Texas cities dominated StorageCafe's list of the top 10 fastest-growing U.S. cities from 2014 to 2023.

The report said the city had nearly 27,000 residents in 2023, but now the U.S. Census Bureau estimates Fulshear's population has now grown to more than 42,600 people.

"With its blend of a relaxed lifestyle, urban conveniences, top-rated schools and strong job opportunities, Fulshear consistently ranks among the best places to live in Texas," the report's author wrote.

This isn't the first time Fulshear has entered the spotlight for its exploding population: it was the No. 2 fastest-growing U.S. city in 2023, and recently came out on top of GoBankingRates' new study ranking of the fastest-growing affluent suburbs in America for 2025.

Several other Houston-area suburbs also saw major growth over the last decade, including Manvel (No. 24), Katy (No. 82), and Conroe (No. 83).

"Manvel doubled its population between 2014 and 2023, while Katy and Conroe each recorded increases of over 50 percent," the report said. "By contrast, Houston itself grew by just 6 percent, aligning with the average growth rate for large U.S. cities."

The report added that the Houston area's population surge has also led to a high demand for housing, where home values have risen 60 percent over the last 10 years. Home prices in Fulshear stood at more than $521,000 in November 2024, whereas Manvel's home prices were over $431,000 during that same period.

For comparison, the national average price of a home is $354,000.

Katy and Conroe had the most affordable home prices out of the four Houston suburbs in the report, at $347,740 and $318,952, respectively, for November.

StorageCafe says the reasons for population shifts vary greatly, with many people seeking out cities with a more affordable cost of living, or those moving for socioeconomic factors like better employment opportunities.

"Population growth is far from even across the U.S. Some cities are experiencing significant increases, directly driven by steady in-migration, rising immigration and birth rates outpacing death rates," the report said. "But what’s fueling these trends runs deeper — economic and social forces like shifting job markets, the rise of remote and hybrid work and soaring living costs are all reshaping where people choose to live."

Other fast-growing Texas cities
Texas had the greatest number of cities to earn spots in the report's ranking of the 100 fastest-growing U.S. cities over the last decade, with 25 total cities making the cut with the highest growth rates nationwide.

Dallas-Fort Worth had the highest number of fastest-growing Texas suburbs on the list, comprising 11 cities: Celina (No. 2), Melissa (No. 3), Princeton (No. 7), Prosper (No. 8), Fate (No. 9), Anna (No. 14), Midlothian (No. 33), Royse City (No. 43), Forney (No. 45), Little Elm (No. 58), and Frisco (No. 72).

Meanwhile, Austin had five suburbs land on the list: Manor (No. 6), Leander (No. 16), Kyle (No. 53), Hutto (No. 54), and Buda (No. 68).

San Antonio also had five suburbs make the top 100, including Boerne (No. 63), Selma (No. 74), Fair Oaks Ranch (No. 70), New Braunfels (No. 77), and Canyon Lake (No. 99).

The top 10 fastest-growing cities over the last decade are:

  • No. 1 – Fulshear, Texas
  • No. 2 – Woodbridge, Virginia
  • No. 3 – Celina, Texas
  • No. 4 – Davenport, Florida
  • No. 5 – Melissa, Texas
  • No. 6 – Manor, Texas
  • No. 7 – Princeton, Texas
  • No. 8 – Prosper, Texas
  • No. 9 – Fate, Texas
  • No. 10 – Nolensville, Tennessee
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This article originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap.com.

Five Houstonians are on Inc.'s Female Founders 500 list for 2025. Courtesy photos

Trailblazing Houston leaders and more innovation news to know right now

Trending News

Editor's note: It's time to look back at the top Houston innovation and business news for the second half of March 2025. InnovationMap's top stories include female founders in the Inc. spotlight, an inaugural list of top local business and civic leaders, Harris County's population boom, and more. Read more below.

1. Texas robotics co. begins new search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370

Ocean Infinity will begin a new search for MH370. Ocean Infinity/Facebook

Malaysia’s government has given final approval for a Texas-based marine robotics company to renew the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean more than a decade ago.

Cabinet ministers agreed to terms and conditions for a “no-find, no-fee” contract with Texas-based Ocean Infinity to resume the seabed search operation at a new 5,800-square-mile site in the ocean, Transport Minister Anthony Loke said in a statement. Ocean Infinity will be paid $70 million only if wreckage is discovered. Continue reading.

2. 5 Houston female founders land on coveted Inc. 500 list

Sassie Duggleby, Margo Jordan, Stephanie Murphy, Emily Cisek and Nina Magon were named to Inc.'s Female Founders 500 list for 2025. Photos courtesy the company's websites and social media pages.

Five Houston female founders have been recognized by Inc. Magazine for their innovations and for leading their industries forward.

The women were named to Inc.'s Female Founders 500 list, which features female entrepreneurs based in the U.S. The group attracted approximately $9 billion in 2024 revenue and $10.6 billion in funding, according to Inc.

“Female founders know what struggle is, but they’re also experts of improvisation, adaptability, and creativity. The women featured on this year’s list exemplify these qualities," Diana Ransom, Inc. executive editor said in a release. "Through times of uncertainty, their unwavering dedication and steadfast leadership are not only inspiring but vital to driving progress.” Continue reading.

3. Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Harris County now boasts a population of more than 5 million. Photo via Getty Images

Newly released U.S. Census Bureau data has revealed Harris County became the third most populous county nationwide in 2024, and it had the highest year-over-year growth rate from 2023.

The new population report, published this month, estimated year-over-year population data from 2023 to 2024 across all 3,144 U.S. counties, and 387 metro areas. Harris County's numeric growth rate outpaced all other U.S. counties from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, the report found. The Census Bureau estimated Harris County's population grew by 105,852 people year-over-year, bringing the total population to 5,009,302 residents. That's around a 2.16 percent growth rate. Continue reading.

4. Houston lab develops AI tool to improve neurodevelopmental diagnoses

A new AI tool from a Baylor College of Medicine Lab could help better diagnose specific types of autism spectrum disorder, epilepsy and developmental delay disorders. Photo via Getty Images.

One of the hardest parts of any medical condition is waiting for answers. Speeding up an accurate diagnosis can be a doctor’s greatest mercy to a family. A team at Baylor College of Medicine has created technology that may do exactly that.

Led by Dr. Ryan S. Dhindsa, assistant professor of pathology and immunology at Baylor and principal investigator at the Jan and Dan Duncan Neurological Research Institute at Texas Children’s Hospital, the scientists have developed an artificial intelligence-based approach that will help doctors to identify genes tied to neurodevelopmental disorders. Continue reading.

5. Houston's top 25 business and civic leaders named by local organization

The Center for Houston’s Future will celebrate its first Top 25 Business/Civic Leadership Forum Alumni group all year, kicking off with an event this week. Photo via Getty Images

As part of its 25th anniversary celebrations, the Center for Houston’s Future has named its first-ever group of Top 25 Business/Civic Leadership Forum Alumni, including energy transition CEOs and legendary craft brewery founders.

The group was selected from among 1,400 alumni of the Center for Houston's Future's Leadership Forum, which hosts two cohorts per year, bringing together leaders from across industries to focus on issues critical to the long-term success of Greater Houston. Continue reading.

Harris County now boasts a population of more than 5 million. Photo via Getty Images

Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Boomtown

Newly released U.S. Census Bureau data has revealed Harris County became the third most populous county nationwide in 2024, and it had the highest year-over-year growth rate from 2023.

The new population report, published this month, estimated year-over-year population data from 2023 to 2024 across all 3,144 U.S. counties, and 387 metro areas.

Harris County's numeric growth rate outpaced all other U.S. counties from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, the report found. The Census Bureau estimated Harris County's population grew by 105,852 people year-over-year, bringing the total population to 5,009,302 residents. That's around a 2.16 percent growth rate.

Los Angeles County, California (No. 1) and Illinois' Cook County (No. 2) are the only two U.S. counties that have larger populations than Harris County. Los Angeles County now boasts a population of nearly 9.76 million, while Cook County's has increased to more than 5.18 million people.

The top 10 most populous counties in the U.S. are:

  • No. 1 – Los Angles County, California
  • No. 2 – Cook County, Illinois
  • No. 3 – Harris County, Texas
  • No. 4 – Maricopa County, Arizona
  • No. 5 – San Diego County, California
  • No. 6 – Orange County, California
  • No. 7 – Miami-Dade County, Florida
  • No. 8 – Dallas County, Texas
  • No. 9 – Kings County, New York
  • No. 10 – Riverside County, California

Montgomery County also ranked among the top 10 U.S. counties with the highest numeric growth, ranking 9th nationally after gaining 34,268 residents from 2023 to 2024. Montgomery County's population has now grown to 749,613 people.

In the report's national comparison of counties with the largest population growth by percentage, Montgomery County ranked No. 7 with a year-over-year growth rate of 4.8 percent.

Most populated U.S. metro areas

The U.S. Census Bureau additionally found Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands nearly led the nation as the second-fastest growing metro area in 2024.

From July 2023 to July 2024, the Houston metro added 198,171 residents to bring the total population to 7,796,182.

New York-Newark-Jersey City was the only metro area to outpace Houston's growth during the one-year period. The New York-New Jersey metro added 213,403 new residents, which brought the total population to over 19.94 million last year.

Kristie Wilder, a Census Bureau Population Division demographer, said in the report that the nation's population growth in its major metros was largely impacted by international migration rather than changes in birth rates.

"While births continue to contribute to overall growth, rising net international migration is offsetting the ongoing net domestic outmigration we see in many of these areas," Wilder said.

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington was right behind Houston as the third-fastest growing U.S. metro in 2024. The Metroplex gained 177,922 residents last year, and now has a total population of more than 8.34 million.

The top 10 U.S. metros with the highest numeric growth from 2023 to 2024 are:

  • No. 1 – New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York-New Jersey
  • No. 2 – Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, Texas
  • No. 3 – Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
  • No. 4 – Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida
  • No. 5 – Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia
  • No. 6 – Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona
  • No. 7 – Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida
  • No. 8 – Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Georgia
  • No. 9 – Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois-Indiana
  • No. 10 – Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington
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This article originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap.com.

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Global summit spotlights Houston's growing role in brain health, innovation

where to be

The Center for Houston’s Future and UTMB are bringing the Texas Brain Economy Summit back to Houston this summer to continue to position the region as a global leader in brain health.

The summit, held June 9-10 at the Texas Medical Center's Helix Park, will bring together more than 500 executives, researchers, policymakers and innovators from around the world to discuss the global brain economy.

Attendees can expect to hear from leaders of global institutions, including the World Economic Forum, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, McKinsey Health Institute, Global Brain Economy Initiative, Davos Alzheimer’s Collaborative, Business Collaborative for Brain Health (UsAgainstAlzheimer’s), Rice University, Memorial Hermann, MD Anderson and many others.

Day 1 of the conference will focus on "Enabling Human Flourishing & Economic Growth." Day 2 will focus on "Scaling Innovation & AI Solutions in the Brain Economy."

Keynotes will be delivered by:

  • Lexi Branson, vice president of health policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  • Kana Enomoto, director of the McKinsey Health Institute
  • Megan Henshall, founder of Google Experience Institute (Xi)
  • Ryan Howard, co-lead of Google Experience Institute (Xi)
  • Dr. Hani Jneid, John Sealy Distinguished Centennial Chair in Cardiology and vice president of cardiovascular operations at UTMB
  • Steve Kean, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership
  • Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor of Texas
  • Jochen Reiser, president of UTMB
  • Thomas Seitz, senior partner of the McKinsey Health Institute

Other significant speakers include:

  • Rym Ayadi, founder and president of the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association (EMEA) and co-founder of the Brain Capital Alliance
  • Arthur Evans, CEO and executive vice president of the American Psychological Association
  • David Gow, president and CEO of the Center for Houston’s Future (Gow is the founder and chairman of Gow Media, InnovationMap's parent company)
  • Bill McKeon, president and CEO of the Texas Medical Center
  • Jeff Merritt, head of urban transformation at the World Economic Forum
  • Joanne Pike, president and CEO of the Alzheimer’s Association
  • George Vradenburg, founding chairman of Davos Alzheimer’s Collaborative and co-founder, chairman and CEO of Us Against Alzheimer’s

The event is supported through Project Metis, which was launched by the Center for Houston’s Future last year. Led by Rice Brain Institute, The University of Texas Medical Branch's Moody Brain Health Institute and Memorial Hermann’s comprehensive neurology care department, the initiative to advance the understanding, prevention and treatment of the brain. It was developed on the heels of Texas voters overwhelmingly approving a ballot measure to launch the $3 billion, state-funded Dementia Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (DPRIT).

“Texas voters, by approving the state-funded Dementia Prevention Institute, have shown a strong commitment to brain health, as scientific advances continue daily. [Project Metis] aims to harness the Houston region’s unique strengths: its concentration of leading medical and academic institutions, a vibrant innovation ecosystem, and a history of entrepreneurial leadership in health and life sciences,” Gow said at the time.

Learn more about The Texas Brain Economy Summit and purchase tickets here.

Texas solar power poised to surpass coal for the first time in 2026

Powering Texas

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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This article first appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

Intuitive Machines strikes $49.3M deal to expand lunar communications network

space deal

Houston-based Intuitive Machines is bulking up its space-to-ground data network with the acquisition of United Kingdom-based Goonhilly Earth Station and its U.S. arm, COMSAT.

The $49.3 million cash-and-stock deal would add 44 antennas to Intuitive Machines’ network. The acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter.

Intuitive Machines, a space infrastructure and services company, designs, builds, and operates spacecraft and data networks for lunar and deep-space missions. Goonhilly operates a satellite Earth station in Cornwall, England.

Intuitive Machines says Goonhilly’s and COMSAT’s civil, commercial, and government customers will complement its current customer base and broaden its reach into related sectors.

“Customers have been clear that they want a single, integrated, and resilient solution for their communications and [position, navigation, and timing] needs as they accelerate missions at an unprecedented pace,” Steve Altemus, co‑founder and CEO of Intuitive Machines, said in a news release.

Kenn Herskind, executive chairman of Goonhilly, says the acquisition “will allow us to scale that capability globally and directly support the next era of lunar exploration. Together, we will be creating a commercial lunar communications network that is interoperable, resilient, and ready to support Artemis and international missions.”
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