Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
Texas is listed as the third-most vulnerable state when it comes to robots replacing the workforce in manufacturing. Houston houses a third of the manufacturing jobs in the state. Thossaphol Somsri/Getty Images

Houston jobs could be hit hard by the rise of robots, one study finds

Automation nation

If a new forecast comes true, Houston's manufacturing sector could take an especially hard hit from the upturn in the use of robots.

In a new report, Oxford Economics, a forecasting and analysis firm based in the United Kingdom, ranks Texas as the third most vulnerable state when it comes to human workers in manufacturing being replaced by robotic labor. The report gives no estimate of how many manufacturing jobs Texas might lose to robots, but around the world, robots could boot 20 million jobs by 2030.

About one-third of Texas' manufacturers operate in the Houston metro area, meaning the robot revolution carries significant weight for the regional economy.

In 2017, manufacturing accounted for $82.6 billion, or nearly 17 percent, of the Houston area's economic output, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis says. Manufacturing employment in the region averaged 219,160 jobs in 2017, with total wages of nearly $4.8 billion.

Among the top manufacturing segments in the region are fabricated metals (22 percent of all manufacturing jobs), machinery (19 percent) and chemicals (17.5 percent), according to the Greater Houston Partnership. Between 2012 and 2017, manufacturing employment in the Houston area slipped by 9.8 percent, going from 243,011 workers to 219,160 workers.

However, a recent report from the Economic Innovation Group shows Harris County netted more manufacturing jobs (11,592) from December 2016 to December 2018 than any other county in the U.S.

According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the manufacturing sector in Texas created more than $226 billion in economic output in 2017. Last year, about 880,900 people held manufacturing jobs in Texas; that's more than 7 percent of the statewide workforce.

In declaring that Texas sits among the states most susceptible to job losses due to robotics, Oxford Economics took into account factors such as:

  • Dependence on manufacturing jobs.
  • Current use of robots in manufacturing.
  • Productivity of the manufacturing workforce.

Based on those criteria, Texas received a robot vulnerability score of 0.50. The top two states, Oregon and Louisiana, each got a score of 0.58, with the higher number meaning greater vulnerability.

The report cites three reasons for the ascent of robots in manufacturing:

  • Robots are becoming cheaper than humans.
  • Robots are becoming more sophisticated.
  • Demand for manufactured goods is rising.

"The rise of the robots will boost productivity and economic growth. It will lead, too, to the creation of new jobs in yet-to-exist industries, in a process of 'creative destruction,'" according to the Oxford Economics report. "But existing business models across many sectors will be seriously disrupted. And tens of millions of existing jobs will be lost, with human workers displaced by robots at an increasing rate as robots become steadily more sophisticated."

Tony Bennett, president and CEO of the Texas Association of Manufacturers, says the Oxford Economics report isn't all gloom and doom.

"Robotics and mechanization in our advanced manufacturing industries will continue to displace some general-labor jobs. However, this change is also ushering in a new set of higher-skilled jobs that are being created to engineer, build, and service these sophisticated machines," Bennett says. "The state of Texas must continue striving to increase educational opportunities in engineering, math, science, and career and technical programs to meet the complex manufacturing processes of the future."

Houston Community College's Advanced Manufacturing Center for Excellence is among the organizations in the Houston area that are preparing workers for jobs in robotics and other high-demand, tech-driven aspects of manufacturing.

"Innovation is Houston's bedrock," Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said in 2017. "The city would have never thrived without the innovations it took to build the Ship Channel and the innovating that goes on every day in the energy industry, at the Texas Medical Center, at the Johnson Space Center and in the manufacturing sector. Now, Houston is poised to take its place at the forefront of the American future in technology."

Earlier this year, another study found a similarly daunting result. Almost half of Houston's workplace tasks are susceptible to automation, according to a new report from the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program. Of 100 metros analyzed, Houston ranks 31st among the country's 100 biggest metros, with 46.3 percent of work tasks susceptible to automation.

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Houston lab develops AI tool to improve neurodevelopmental diagnoses

developing news

One of the hardest parts of any medical condition is waiting for answers. Speeding up an accurate diagnosis can be a doctor’s greatest mercy to a family. A team at Baylor College of Medicine has created technology that may do exactly that.

Led by Dr. Ryan S. Dhindsa, assistant professor of pathology and immunology at Baylor and principal investigator at the Jan and Dan Duncan Neurological Research Institute at Texas Children’s Hospital, the scientists have developed an artificial intelligence-based approach that will help doctors to identify genes tied to neurodevelopmental disorders. Their research was recently published the American Journal of Human Genetics.

According to its website, Dhindsa Lab uses “human genomics, human stem cell models, and computational biology to advance precision medicine.” The diagnoses that stem from the new computational tool could include specific types of autism spectrum disorder, epilepsy and developmental delay, disorders that often don’t come with a genetic diagnosis.

“Although researchers have made major strides identifying different genes associated with neurodevelopmental disorders, many patients with these conditions still do not receive a genetic diagnosis, indicating that there are many more genes waiting to be discovered,” Dhindsa said in a news release.

Typically, scientists must sequence the genes of many people with a diagnosis, as well as people not affected by the disorder, to find new genes associated with a particular disease or disorder. That takes time, money, and a little bit of luck. AI minimizes the need for all three, explains Dhindsa: “We used AI to find patterns among genes already linked to neurodevelopmental diseases and predict additional genes that might also be involved in these disorders.”

The models, made using patterns expressed at the single-cell level, are augmented with north of 300 additional biological features, including data on how intolerant genes are to mutations, whether they interact with other known disease-associated genes, and their functional roles in different biological pathways.

Dhindsa says that these models have exceptionally high predictive value.

“Top-ranked genes were up to two-fold or six-fold, depending on the mode of inheritance, more enriched for high-confidence neurodevelopmental disorder risk genes compared to genic intolerance metrics alone,” he said in the release. “Additionally, some top-ranking genes were 45 to 500 times more likely to be supported by the literature than lower-ranking genes.”

That means that the models may actually validate genes that haven’t yet been proven to be involved in neurodevelopmental conditions. Gene discovery done with the help of AI could possibly become the new normal for families seeking answers beyond umbrella terms like “autism spectrum disorder.”

“We hope that our models will accelerate gene discovery and patient diagnoses, and future studies will assess this possibility,” Dhindsa added.

Texas robotics co. begins new search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370

International News

Malaysia’s government has given final approval for a Texas-based marine robotics company to renew the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which is believed to have crashed in the southern Indian Ocean more than a decade ago.

Cabinet ministers agreed to terms and conditions for a “no-find, no-fee” contract with Texas-based Ocean Infinity to resume the seabed search operation at a new 5,800-square-mile site in the ocean, Transport Minister Anthony Loke said in a statement Wednesday. Ocean Infinity will be paid $70 million only if wreckage is discovered.

The Boeing 777 plane vanished from radar shortly after taking off on March 8, 2014, carrying 239 people, mostly Chinese nationals, on a flight from Malaysia’s capital, Kuala Lumpur, to Beijing. Satellite data showed the plane turned from its flight path and headed south to the far-southern Indian Ocean, where it is believed to have crashed.

An expensive multinational search failed to turn up any clues to its location, although debris washed ashore on the east African coast and Indian Ocean islands. A private search in 2018 by Ocean Infinity also found nothing.

The final approval for a new search came three months after Malaysia gave the nod in principle to plans for a fresh search.

Ocean Infinity CEO Oliver Punkett earlier this year reportedly said the company had improved its technology since 2018. He has said the firm is working with many experts to analyze data and had narrowed the search area to the most likely site.

Loke said his ministry will ink a contract with Ocean Infinity soon but didn’t provide details on the terms. The firm has reportedly sent a search vessel to the site and indicated that January-April is the best period for the search.

“The government is committed to continuing the search operation and providing closure for the families of the passengers of flight MH370,” he said in a statement.

Harris County booms with 3rd biggest population in U.S.

Boomtown

Newly released U.S. Census Bureau data has revealed Harris County became the third most populous county nationwide in 2024, and it had the highest year-over-year growth rate from 2023.

The new population report, published this month, estimated year-over-year population data from 2023 to 2024 across all 3,144 U.S. counties, and 387 metro areas.

Harris County's numeric growth rate outpaced all other U.S. counties from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, the report found. The Census Bureau estimated Harris County's population grew by 105,852 people year-over-year, bringing the total population to 5,009,302 residents. That's around a 2.16 percent growth rate.

Los Angeles County, California (No. 1) and Illinois' Cook County (No. 2) are the only two U.S. counties that have larger populations than Harris County. Los Angeles County now boasts a population of nearly 9.76 million, while Cook County's has increased to more than 5.18 million people.

The top 10 most populous counties in the U.S. are:

  • No. 1 – Los Angles County, California
  • No. 2 – Cook County, Illinois
  • No. 3 – Harris County, Texas
  • No. 4 – Maricopa County, Arizona
  • No. 5 – San Diego County, California
  • No. 6 – Orange County, California
  • No. 7 – Miami-Dade County, Florida
  • No. 8 – Dallas County, Texas
  • No. 9 – Kings County, New York
  • No. 10 – Riverside County, California

Montgomery County also ranked among the top 10 U.S. counties with the highest numeric growth, ranking 9th nationally after gaining 34,268 residents from 2023 to 2024. Montgomery County's population has now grown to 749,613 people.

In the report's national comparison of counties with the largest population growth by percentage, Montgomery County ranked No. 7 with a year-over-year growth rate of 4.8 percent.

Most populated U.S. metro areas

The U.S. Census Bureau additionally found Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands nearly led the nation as the second-fastest growing metro area in 2024.

From July 2023 to July 2024, the Houston metro added 198,171 residents to bring the total population to 7,796,182.

New York-Newark-Jersey City was the only metro area to outpace Houston's growth during the one-year period. The New York-New Jersey metro added 213,403 new residents, which brought the total population to over 19.94 million last year.

Kristie Wilder, a Census Bureau Population Division demographer, said in the report that the nation's population growth in its major metros was largely impacted by international migration rather than changes in birth rates.

"While births continue to contribute to overall growth, rising net international migration is offsetting the ongoing net domestic outmigration we see in many of these areas," Wilder said.

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington was right behind Houston as the third-fastest growing U.S. metro in 2024. The Metroplex gained 177,922 residents last year, and now has a total population of more than 8.34 million.

The top 10 U.S. metros with the highest numeric growth from 2023 to 2024 are:

  • No. 1 – New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York-New Jersey
  • No. 2 – Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, Texas
  • No. 3 – Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
  • No. 4 – Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida
  • No. 5 – Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia
  • No. 6 – Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona
  • No. 7 – Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida
  • No. 8 – Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Georgia
  • No. 9 – Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois-Indiana
  • No. 10 – Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington
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This article originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap.com.

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