Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

No. 1 state for growth prospects
No. 1 state for business costs
No. 4 state for economic climate
No. 10 state for labor supply
No. 15 state for quality of life
No. 21 state for regulatory environment

In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.

Texas is listed as the third-most vulnerable state when it comes to robots replacing the workforce in manufacturing. Houston houses a third of the manufacturing jobs in the state. Thossaphol Somsri/Getty Images

Houston jobs could be hit hard by the rise of robots, one study finds

Automation nation

If a new forecast comes true, Houston's manufacturing sector could take an especially hard hit from the upturn in the use of robots.

In a new report, Oxford Economics, a forecasting and analysis firm based in the United Kingdom, ranks Texas as the third most vulnerable state when it comes to human workers in manufacturing being replaced by robotic labor. The report gives no estimate of how many manufacturing jobs Texas might lose to robots, but around the world, robots could boot 20 million jobs by 2030.

About one-third of Texas' manufacturers operate in the Houston metro area, meaning the robot revolution carries significant weight for the regional economy.

In 2017, manufacturing accounted for $82.6 billion, or nearly 17 percent, of the Houston area's economic output, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis says. Manufacturing employment in the region averaged 219,160 jobs in 2017, with total wages of nearly $4.8 billion.

Among the top manufacturing segments in the region are fabricated metals (22 percent of all manufacturing jobs), machinery (19 percent) and chemicals (17.5 percent), according to the Greater Houston Partnership. Between 2012 and 2017, manufacturing employment in the Houston area slipped by 9.8 percent, going from 243,011 workers to 219,160 workers.

However, a recent report from the Economic Innovation Group shows Harris County netted more manufacturing jobs (11,592) from December 2016 to December 2018 than any other county in the U.S.

According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the manufacturing sector in Texas created more than $226 billion in economic output in 2017. Last year, about 880,900 people held manufacturing jobs in Texas; that's more than 7 percent of the statewide workforce.

In declaring that Texas sits among the states most susceptible to job losses due to robotics, Oxford Economics took into account factors such as:

Dependence on manufacturing jobs.
Current use of robots in manufacturing.
Productivity of the manufacturing workforce.

Based on those criteria, Texas received a robot vulnerability score of 0.50. The top two states, Oregon and Louisiana, each got a score of 0.58, with the higher number meaning greater vulnerability.

The report cites three reasons for the ascent of robots in manufacturing:

Robots are becoming cheaper than humans.
Robots are becoming more sophisticated.
Demand for manufactured goods is rising.

"The rise of the robots will boost productivity and economic growth. It will lead, too, to the creation of new jobs in yet-to-exist industries, in a process of 'creative destruction,'" according to the Oxford Economics report. "But existing business models across many sectors will be seriously disrupted. And tens of millions of existing jobs will be lost, with human workers displaced by robots at an increasing rate as robots become steadily more sophisticated."

Tony Bennett, president and CEO of the Texas Association of Manufacturers, says the Oxford Economics report isn't all gloom and doom.

"Robotics and mechanization in our advanced manufacturing industries will continue to displace some general-labor jobs. However, this change is also ushering in a new set of higher-skilled jobs that are being created to engineer, build, and service these sophisticated machines," Bennett says. "The state of Texas must continue striving to increase educational opportunities in engineering, math, science, and career and technical programs to meet the complex manufacturing processes of the future."

Houston Community College's Advanced Manufacturing Center for Excellence is among the organizations in the Houston area that are preparing workers for jobs in robotics and other high-demand, tech-driven aspects of manufacturing.

"Innovation is Houston's bedrock," Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said in 2017. "The city would have never thrived without the innovations it took to build the Ship Channel and the innovating that goes on every day in the energy industry, at the Texas Medical Center, at the Johnson Space Center and in the manufacturing sector. Now, Houston is poised to take its place at the forefront of the American future in technology."

Earlier this year, another study found a similarly daunting result. Almost half of Houston's workplace tasks are susceptible to automation, according to a new report from the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program. Of 100 metros analyzed, Houston ranks 31st among the country's 100 biggest metros, with 46.3 percent of work tasks susceptible to automation.

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Houston Innovation Awards honor Don Kendall Jr. with posthumous Trailblazer Legacy Award

lasting legacy

Every year, the Houston Innovation Awards honor one Houstonian with the Trailblazer Award, whose impact is felt throughout the city's innovation and business ecosystem.

This year, the Trailblazer Legacy Award will be given posthumously to Don Kendall Jr., who died in September while on a trip to the Republic of the Congo with the Jane Goodall Institute, one of the many organizations he was deeply involved with.

Kendall's obituary puts it simply: "Don’s truest passions were conservation and his family." Many saw those passions play out in his career, particularly in the role he played in shaping Houston's clean energy sector.

Kendall served as general partner of New Climate Ventures, a Houston-based early-stage venture capital firm that invests in next-gen energy, materials and fuel technologies and startups. The firm's portfolio includes Houston-based clean energy companies like Solidec, Syzygy Plasmonics and Rheom Materials.

Kendall was also founding managing director and CEO of Kenmont Capital LP. He ran a $500 million distressed debt and credit-based hedge fund focused on the energy, power and transportation sectors and one of the top-performing private equity funds under the Kenmont umbrella.

He served on the board of Talos Energy, American Midstream Partners, Syzygy Plasmonics, Tangent Energy, Stream Energy and others. Notably, he served as Chair of the Special Committee of the SolarCity board during its acquisition by Tesla in 2016. According to his obituary, Kendall negotiated with "Elon Musk in the middle of the night on a rickety pier in Indonesia after eluding a poisonous snake."

Outside of the clean energy space, Kendall also served on the boards of the Jane Goodall Institute, Earthwatch International and Ecological Defense Group. He also served as vice chair of the Houston Zoo Inc. and chair of its Conservation Committee.

Kendall was selected by our esteemed panel of judges to receive the 2026 Trailblazer Legacy Award. The panel includes carbon removal entrepreneur and CEO of Houston-based Mars Materials Aaron Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald shares the profound impact Kendall had on his career and those of many others.

"Honoring Don with the Trailblazer Legacy Award is a fitting tribute to a leader whose impact spanned civic work with the Houston Zoo, wildlife conservation, and the growth of our startup ecosystem," Fitzgerald says. "He paired a keen eye for potential with the relentless drive to unlock it. For Mars Materials, his early backing carried us through a critical valley when we needed belief the most, and his presence as a personal mentor is profoundly missed."

Don was an avid traveler, cyclist and collector. He is survived by his wife of 50 years, Diane S. Kendall. A celebration of life will be held early in 2027.

2 Houston suburbs rank among 5 best cities to retire, says U.S. News

Slowing Down

Houston and nine of its suburbs are earning new acclaim on U.S. News and World Report's just-released list of the best U.S. cities for retirees in 2027. Two northern suburbs, The Woodlands and Spring, are resting easy among the top five nationwide.

The 2027 Best Places to Retire list evaluated over 850 U.S. cities based on six livability metrics that best serve American retirees: quality of life, affordability, health care, retiree taxes, job market, and population and migration. The top 250 finalist cities were then ranked nationally and by city size.

Midland, Michigan topped the list for the second consecutive year and is followed by Homosassa Springs, Florida (No. 2) and Weirton, West Virginia (No. 3).

The Woodlands and Spring respectively maintained their standings as the No. 4 and No. 5 best cities for retirees for the second year in a row. The Woodlands topped the separate list of the best midsized U.S. cities to retire, while Spring landed 5th among the smallest U.S. cities.

Houston proper was declared the No. 2 best big city for retirees, and it ranked 89th overall. Elsewhere in the metro, Pearland (No. 13) and Conroe (No. 14) ranked just outside the overall top 10 but ranked 4th and 5th among the best midsized cities for retirees.

U.S. News said affordability is the "most considered factor" when it comes to picking the best place to live a low-stress retirement life, and that's what Houston and its neighbors deliver. Affordable cities also give retirees "a sense of security and comfort as they live out their golden years," according to Megan Wood, U.S. News assistant managing editor of home services and real estate.

"It’s no secret that affordability is top of mind for Americans this year, which is why U.S. News updated its weighting criteria to better align with what retirees prioritize," Wood said. "The 2027 rankings reflect key metrics used to highlight the places that
best suit retiree needs."

Sugar Land was declared the 10th best place to live in the U.S. in a separate U.S. News report earlier this year, but it doesn't quite meet the expectations for retirees. This particular suburb ranked as the 45th best overall city to retire, but it fared better in the city size ranking and landed 13th among the biggest U.S. cities.

Pasadena also surprised as the 85th best place to retire nationwide in this report, despite being hailed as the No. 3 best city to retire in Texas by RetirementLiving.com.

Three more Houston neighbors ranked among the top 100 overall best places to retire for 2027: League City (No. 25), Missouri City (No. 49), and Baytown (No. 88).

These are the top 10 best U.S. cities to retire for 2027:

No. 1 – Midland, Michigan
No. 2 – Homosassa Springs, Florida
No. 3 – Weirton, West Virginia
No. 4 – The Woodlands
No. 5 – Spring, Texas
No. 6 – Rio Rancho, New Mexico
No. 7 – Altoona, Pennsylvania
No. 8 – Paducah, Kentucky
No. 9 – Lynchburg, Virginia
No. 10 – Palm Coast, Florida

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This article first appeared on CultureMap.com.

Air taxi network to land in 'Texas triangle' of Houston, Austin, DFW next year

taking flight

San Jose, California-based aerospace company Archer Aviation is bringing its air-taxi system to the “Texas triangle” of Houston, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth.

Currently, the planned zero-emission electric air taxi networks will use Archer’s Midnight air taxi to “turn 60- to 90-minute drives to major airports, business districts and major destinations into 10- to 20-minute flights,” the company said in a news release. Archer plans to begin flights in the Texas triangle next year.

The Midnight air taxi is an all-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. It can carry four passengers and a pilot and is designed for consecutive flights of about 20 miles.

Archer cites the Texas triangle as one of the busiest and fastest-growing “megaregions” in the country due to its proximity to coastal regions, major airports, and a number of business districts.

Archer Chief Commercial Officer Nikhil Goel described the air taxi experience to CW Houston as “100 times quieter than a helicopter for the price of an Uber Black.” He added that the air taxis are a combination of a helicopter, a small airplane and a drone.

In Houston, Archer’s air taxi network will aim to connect George Bush Intercontinental, William P. Hobby and Sugar Land Regional Airport with downtown destinations, including the Thompson Hotel helipad, and Galveston.

In Austin, it plans to link the city's Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Austin Executive Airport with the F1 Circuit Helipad at the Circuit of the Americas. Archer debuted its Midnight aircraft at the F1 Prix in the Fan Zone and the F1 Paddock at Austin’s Circuit of the Americas. The Dallas-Fort Worth network is slated to include Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, Dallas Love Field, Addison Airport, Arlington Municipal Airport, Fort Worth Meacham International Airport and Perot Field Fort Worth Alliance Airport, plus major business hubs like Frisco Station.

“Texas is setting the bar for America’s leadership in the next generation of aviation,” Adam Goldstein, founder and CEO of Archer Aviation, said in the release. “Our planned networks will make the benefits of electric air taxis real for Texans — trading hours in traffic for minutes in the air, while connecting the biggest airports, business districts and sporting hubs in ways that America’s largest megaregion needs to grow.”

Archer is working with state and local partners to develop charging infrastructure and plans to pursue Texas operations through the White House’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, according to the release. It recently completed its "No Roads" flight tour, which included multiple flights over the San Francisco Bay, and flew to seven cities over three days.

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