The Houston apartment market is rising. Photo courtesy of Vantage Med Center

As local developers, renters, and anyone trying to navigate all the new construction knows, Houston is in the midst of an apartment boom. A recent national report suggests that boom may not slow anytime soon, as it lists Houston as a top buy for apartment investors — and an area that will see rising rents in the foreseeable future.

Ten-X Commercial, an online platform for commercial real estate transactions, identified two Texas cities (Houston and Fort Worth) that commercial investors should target in its annual U.S. Apartment Market Outlook. Only three other American cities are considered strong buys for apartment investors: Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; Charlotte, North Carolina; and Salt Lake City. The data in the report is generated from the more than $20 billion worth of transactions handled by Ten-X Commercial.

In analyzing Houston and Fort Worth, Ten-X Commercial finds that both offer strong net operating income benefits — a key driver in commercial real estate — to investors for years to come. Houston's apartment rents are buoyed by a "resurgent energy sector" that is "turbocharging the local economy" and jumped 6.1 percent year over year. The report also forecasts that Houston is "likely to prove considerably more resilient during a modeled downturn than other markets."

According to the report, here's a quick breakdown of the numbers for the Houston multifamily market:

  • Q1 2018 rent: $987
  • 2021 projected rent: $1,184
  • Q1 2018 vacancy: 6.2 percent
  • 2021 projected vacancy: 4.4 percent

With every top buy report comes a warning to sell. Cities where investors should consider unloading are New York; Miami; San Francisco; Oakland, California; and San Jose, California. These markets are witnessing rising vacancies and flattening rents.

But how much is too much growth? Nationally, according to the research, multifamily completions should reach an all-time peak in 2018 as more than 300,000 new units flood the market, outpacing even the highest absorption levels in recent history. As a result, vacancies are expected to drift above 5 percent by the end of the year for the first time since 2011.

Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio noted in the report that "while millennials and other demographic groups continue to forego homeownership in favor of renting in walkable neighborhoods, developers appear to have gotten ahead of themselves in creating rental supply."

Muoio added that the pipeline "can reasonably be described as a flood and though demand for these units is likely to come in the years ahead, we can expect to see some significant digestion issues in the near term."

Until that happens, Houston renters would be wise to lock in their lease rates, as it's clear that our apartment market is anything but flat.

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This story originally appeared on CultureMap.

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2 Houston space tech cos. celebrate major tech milestones

big wins

Two Houston aerospace companies — Intuitive Machines and Venus Aerospace — have reached testing milestones for equipment they’re developing.

Intuitive Machines recently completed the first round of “human in the loop” testing for its Moon RACER (Reusable Autonomous Crewed Exploration Rover) lunar terrain vehicle. The company conducted the test at NASA’s Johnson Space Center.

RACER is one of three lunar terrain vehicles being considered by NASA for the space agency’s Artemis initiative, which will send astronauts to the moon.

NASA says human-in-the-loop testing can reveal design flaws and technical problems, and can lead to cost-efficient improvements. In addition, it can elevate the design process from 2D to 3D modeling.

Intuitive Machines says the testing “proved invaluable.” NASA astronauts served as test subjects who provided feedback about the Moon RACER’s functionality.

The Moon RACER, featuring a rechargeable electric battery and a robotic arm, will be able to accommodate two astronauts and more than 880 pounds of cargo. It’s being designed to pull a trailer loaded with more than 1,760 pounds of cargo.

Another Houston company, Venus Aerospace, recently achieved ignition of its VDR2 rocket engine. The engine, being developed in tandem with Ohio-based Velontra — which aims to produce hypersonic planes — combines the functions of a rotating detonation rocket engine with those of a ramjet.

A rotating detonation rocket engine, which isn’t equipped with moving parts, rapidly burns fuel via a supersonic detonation wave, according to the Air Force Research Laboratory. In turn, the engine delivers high performance in a small volume, the lab says. This savings in volume can offer range, speed, and affordability benefits compared with ramjets, rockets, and gas turbines.

A ramjet is a type of “air breathing” jet engine that does not include a rotary engine, according to the SKYbrary electronic database. Instead, it uses the forward motion of the engine to compress incoming air.

A ramjet can’t function at zero airspeed, so it can’t power an aircraft during all phases of flight, according to SKYbrary. Therefore, it must be paired with another kind of propulsion, such as a rotating detonation rocket engine, to enable acceleration at a speed where the ramjet can produce thrust.

“With this successful test and ignition, Venus Aerospace has demonstrated the exceptional ability to start a [ramjet] at takeoff speed, which is revolutionary,” the company says.

Venus Aerospace plans further testing of its engine in 2025.

Venus Aerospace, recently achieved ignition of its VDR2 rocket engine. Photo courtesy of Venus Aerospace

METRO rolls out electric shuttles for downtown Houston commuters

on a roll

The innovative METRO microtransit program will be expanding to the downtown area, the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County announced on Monday.

“Microtransit is a proven solution to get more people where they need to go safely and efficiently,” Houston Mayor John Whitmire said in a statement. “Connected communities are safer communities, and bringing microtransit to Houston builds on my promise for smart, fiscally-sound infrastructure growth.”

The program started in June 2023 when the city’s nonprofit Evolve Houston partnered with the for-profit Ryde company to offer free shuttle service to residents of Second and Third Ward. The shuttles are all-electric and take riders to bus stops, medical buildings, and grocery stores. Essentially, it works as a traditional ride-share service but focuses on multiple passengers in areas where bus access may involve hazards or other obstacles. Riders access the system through the Ride Circuit app.

So far, the microtransit system has made a positive impact in the wards according to METRO. This has led to the current expansion into the downtown area. The system is not designed to replace the standard bus service, but to help riders navigate to it through areas where bus service is more difficult.

“Integrating microtransit into METRO’s public transit system demonstrates a commitment to finding innovative solutions that meet our customers where they are,” said METRO Board Chair Elizabeth Gonzalez Brock. “This on-demand service provides a flexible, easier way to reach METRO buses and rail lines and will grow ridership by solving the first- and last-mile challenges that have hindered people’s ability to choose METRO.”

The City of Houston approved a renewal of the microtransit program in July, authorizing Evolve Houston to spend $1.3 million on it. Some, like council member Letitia Plummer, have questioned whether microtransit is really the future for METRO as the service cuts lines such as the University Corridor.

However, the microtransit system serves clear and longstanding needs in Houston. Getting to and from bus stops in the city with its long blocks, spread-out communities, and fickle pedestrian ways can be difficult, especially for poor or disabled riders. While the bus and rail work fine for longer distances, shorter ones can be underserved.

Even in places like downtown where stops are plentiful, movement between them can still involve walks of a mile or more, and may not serve for short trips.

“Our microtransit service is a game-changer for connecting people, and we are thrilled to launch it in downtown Houston,” said Evolve executive director Casey Brown. “The all-electric, on-demand service complements METRO’s existing fixed-route systems while offering a new solution for short trips. This launch marks an important milestone for our service, and we look forward to introducing additional zones in the new year — improving access to public transit and local destinations.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.