Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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Houston startup’s brain implant for depression advances to clinical trial

moving forward

Houston-based Motif Neurotech has received FDA approval to move forward with its first clinical trial for its innovative way to fight treatment-resistant depression and other mental health disorders.

The company has developed a brain-computer interface technology based on research from Rice University. The blueberry-sized, wirelessly powered implantable device known as the Digitally-programmable Over-brain Therapeutic (DOT) stimulator delivers electrical stimulation to brain circuits linked to depression. The DOT stimulator sits in the skull above the dura without touching the brain and is considered an alternative to transcranial magnetic stimulation, which requires multiple treatment sessions and can cause headaches.

“The goal for this technology is that it would be the mental health equivalent of a continuous glucose monitor for diabetes,” Jacob Robinson, a Rice University professor of electrical computer engineering and bioengineering and CEO of Motif Neurotech, said in a news release. “What has been really special for me personally on this journey is to be able to work all the way from a concept through the process of research and development funded by the federal government at Rice, and take that into a product that is going to affect people’s lives for the better.”

Eligible adults whose depression has not improved after trying multiple therapies can take part in the study. The clinical trial will be conducted in collaboration with Baylor College of Medicine, Brain Health Consultants (Houston), UT Health Houston, Massachusetts General Brigham, Emory Healthcare, University of Iowa, University of Utah Health and New York University, according to Rice.

Motif also announced that it was one of the first teams selected for ARPA-H’s EVIDENT initiative, which recently awarded up to $139.4 million to spur new, effective therapies for behavioral health. Through the initiative, Motif will collect additional data alongside its clinical trial.

“The idea with this funding is to support a number of teams who have rapid-acting interventions for a mental health condition and to collect additional data to help determine with greater precision whether a treatment is working, how it is working and which patients are benefitting most from which course of treatment,” Robinson added in the release.

Motif Neurotech was spun out of Robinson’s and Professor Kaiyuan Yang’s labs at Rice, along with collaborators and co-founders Dr. Sameer Sheth at Baylor College of Medicine and Dr. Sunil Sheth at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston. It was founded through the Rice Biotech Launch Pad. The company closed its Series A round with an oversubscribed $18.75 million last year.

New immersive experience Time Mission clocks into Houston this summer

It's Time

Time for a new immersive experience to come to Houston: Time Mission, a kid-friendly, team-based adventure, is scheduled to land at the Marq-E Entertainment District in summer 2026.

Created by LOL Entertainment, a location-based entertainment company specializing in immersive attractions, Time Mission blends physical and mental challenges in a fast-paced experience, a release says. Players take on real-world tasks like cracking codes, dodging lasers, solving riddles, and exploring hidden tunnels to earn points for their team.

Racing through 25-plus unique portals, teams of two to five players embark on a time-travel journey across the past, present, and future, all while collecting points and battling the clock. The website says the attraction is appropriate for "players age 6 to 106."

“We’ve seen a shift in how people seek entertainment, choosing immersive adventures that foster connection and excitement," says Rob Cooper, CEO of LOL Entertainment, in the release. "We’re excited to introduce [Texas] to an experience where strategy, innovation, and teamwork collide."

There are currently Time Mission locations in Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia, Illinois, and Belgium. Dallas will be the first Texas location, followed by Houston.

Immersive attractions have been popular in Houston for several years, from Meow Wolf just north of downtown to interactive experiences dedicated to balloons and more.

Time Mission will be located in a 10,000-square-foot space at the Marq-E Entertainment District (7620 Katy Fwy., Ste. 355). The exact opening date will be announced at a later time.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

7+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events in May

where to be

Editor’s note: Houston is living up to its nicknames as Space City and the Energy Capital of the World this month with a lineup of insightful talks, pitch days and industry conferences. Plus, there are opportunities to network over crawfish, learn about brain health and more. Here’s what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.

May 7 – Ion Block Party and Crawfish Boil

Head to this special edition Block Party, featuring a crawfish cook-off competition among the Ion’s businesses. Competing teams include Transwestern, Microsoft, Rice Alliance, Rice Nexus, South Main Baptist, Per Scholas, Industrious and many others. Taste test crawfish while supplies last, and sip a complimentary drink from Second Draught.

This event is Thursday, May 7, from 4-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

May 12 – Why the Next Decade of Breakthrough Brain Tech Matters For You, and What to Do About It

Hear from Matias Serebrinsky, co-founder and general partner of San Francisco-based PsyMed Ventures, at this talk presented by EO Houston. Serebrinsky will discuss why founders are disproportionately affected by brain health issues and look at breakthrough brain and mental health tech.

This event is Tuesday, May 12, from 11:20 a.m.-1 p.m. at Tony's on Richmond Avenue. Register here.

May 18-19 — Geothermal Transition Summit North America

This two-day summit serves as the meeting point for the geothermal and oil and gas industries and will focus on geothermal energy, including scaling plants and navigating state regulations. The event promises 40 expert speakers, 15 exhibition spaces, and networking opportunities with 250 industry decision makers.

This event begins May 18 at Norris Conference Center. Register here.

May 19 – IOT Innovation Day

IoT Innovation Day will present a series of fast‑paced, 15‑minute tech talks focused on the future of connected devices. These sessions feature insights from founders, engineers, product innovators and industry leaders. Attendees are also invited to sign up to present their own tech talk showcasing their expertise, startup or solution.

This event is Tuesday, May 19, from 10 a.m.-6 p.m. Register here.

May 20-21 — ESF North America

ESF North America returns for its 5th edition, under the theme of “innovation and adaptation.” Attendees will explore how technology, innovation, and collaboration can drive a resilient, competitive refining and chemicals industry.

This event begins May 20 at The Westin Oaks Houston at the Galleria. Register here.

May 21 – AI + Energy Sector Pitch Day

Hear from startups powering the AI boom or using AI to support the energy transition at Greentown's latest installment of its Sector Pitch Day series. Brian Walker, program manager for emerging technologies in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office, will present the keynote address. Six Greentown startups will present pitches, as well as others from IMPEL, a DOE tech-to-market program, and more. Stick around for a networking happy hour.

This event is Thursday, May 21, from 1:30-6:30 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

May 28 – NASA Stories at the Ion: A Conversation with NASA’s Artemis II Orion Vehicle Manager Branelle Rodriguez

NASA’s Artemis II Orion Vehicle Manager Branelle Rodriguez will discuss what it took to ready the spacecraft for its mission and return to Earth at this special installment of NASA Stories. Rodriguez will share insights on Orion’s high-speed reentry, the views of the Moon and Earth witnessed by the crew, and what’s next for Orion on NASA’s upcoming Artemis missions in 2027 and 2028. Complimentary breakfast and networking take place before each talk.

This event Thursday, May 28, from 8:30-10 a.m. at the Ion. Register here.

May 28 – NASA Tech Talks: Texas-France Space Hub Business Accelerator Initiative

NASA Tech Talks is partnering with the Rice Space Institute (RSI) this month to host the second cohort of the Texas-France Space Hub in Houston. The hub aims to unite academic institutions and private enterprises to expand commercial space presence in both countries. Startups from the hub will present during the event, followed by drinks and networking at Second Draught.

This event Thursday, May 28, from 6-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.