Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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New manufacturing facility breaks ground at NASA’s Johnson Space Center

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HITT Contracting has broken ground on NASA’s Applied Spaceflight Fabrication Facility (ASFF) at Johnson Space Center, the Washington, D.C.-based construction firm announced late last month.

The project, known as Building 70, will house a high-bay machine shop to support component production for future NASA space missions, according to HITT. The 37,625-square-foot building is the first part of a larger goal to create an engineering complex that unites assembly space, lab capabilities and manufacturing at JSC. It will consolidate machining equipment and operations that are currently spread across multiple campus buildings into one location.

The project broke ground in October at JSC’s Historic District. The Houston Business Journal reports construction is expected to wrap in August of 2028.

“This project will modernize facilities that support America’s space missions,” PJ Ross, chief financial officer at HITT, said in a LinkedIn post. “Proud of our team and partners as we begin construction that will advance aerospace testing and innovation.”

HITT Contracting is one of seven companies awarded infrastructure contracts by NASA earlier this year for work at JSC. According to NASA, the construction contracts “[support] up to $300 million in upgrades to mission‑support facilities, utilities, and equipment across the NASA Johnson campus.”

Construction Drive reports that HITT will also renovate Building 13 South on the JSC campus as part of the $300 million initiative.

“Building for precision manufacturing starts with understanding how the space needs to perform,” Todd Hudson, vice president at HITT Contracting, added in the release. “Our team brings the technical expertise and collaborative approach to deliver a facility that meets the Johnson Space Center’s needs today and supports the next generation of spaceflight innovation. We’re proud to continue our partnership with NASA.”

NASA also recently announced awards as part of its expanded Moon Base exploration, science and infrastructure capabilities. Houston-based Intuitive Machines and seven other spacetech companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Firefly Aerospace, were selected to receive funding.

The awards are part of the next phase of NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative, which will grant the companies a combined total of up to $10 billion over 10 years.

Intuitive Machines and Webster-based MEI Technologies were also awarded contracts this past summer from NASA to develop robots for exploring the surface of Mars. Read more here.

Meet 6 mentors guiding Houston’s next generation of startup founders

meet the finalists

Houston’s thriving startup ecosystem is supported by a network of experienced leaders who work behind the scenes, investing their time and knowledge to help the next generation of entrepreneurs succeed.

As part of the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, the Mentor of the Year category will honor an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs. They support promising startups in the medical tech, digital health, clean energy, hardware sectors and more.

Read more about these businesses, their founders and their breakthrough technologies below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Al Danto, Rice University

Al Danto is a senior lecturer in entrepreneurship at Rice University. He mentors undergraduate and graduate students at Rice and through the university's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lillie). He's also involved in the Houston Entrepreneurs Organization and Rice Veterans' Business Battle.

"[Mentoring] is very rewarding and fulfilling," Danto says. "[It] helps to me to pay back full circle over the incredible mentors I have had."

Eric Rubenstein, New Climate Ventures

Eric Rubenstein is managing partner at New Climate Ventures. He mentors startups through the clean energy-focused early-stage VC firm and also through the Breakthrough Energy Fellowship, Activate, Greentown Labs and Yale Ventures. Rubenstein has worked with numerous startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Rheom Materials, Bairitone Health, Pattern Materials and many others.

"Being a mentor is an important part of an innovation ecosystem," Rubenstein says. "Seeing founders succeed is rewarding, particularly if what they are building will meaningfully contribute to society. It is a way to give back that also builds community, as mentorship often involves introducing founders to other mentors, to potential investors and to potential customers. Just like the adage 'it takes a village' is used in reference to raising a child, the same adage applies to building a startup. That’s why we say 'let’s build.' Let’s build is inclusive because we do it together, as a community, even if the founders need to execute on a daily basis to make their vision a reality."

Jeremy Pitts, Activate

Jeremy Pitts serves as managing director of Activate Houston, which launched in Houston in 2024. He was one of the founders of Greentown Labs in the Boston area and served in a leadership role for the organization between 2011 and 2015. Through Activate, he has mentored numerous impactful startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Coflux Purification, Bairitone Health, Newfound Materials, Deep Anchor Solutions and others.

"Mentorship to me is all about selflessly supporting a person," Pitts says. "The person comes first--if you're not supporting the person, then their business needs don't matter. I'm there not to answer questions for people, but to help them gain the confidence and the capability to solve problems on their own. I am successful when my mentees are successful and happy, regardless of what their personal definition of success might look like."

Joe Alapat, Liongard

Joe Alapat founded and serves as chief strategy officer at Houston software company Liongard. He founded Startup Circle Houston and co-hosts Cybersecurity Circle, which both meet regularly at The Ion. He participates in Mercury Fund Day and has also mentored through Impact Hub Houston. He's worked with founders of FlowCare, Unytag, STEAM OnDemand, Lokum and many other early-stage startups.

"I compare being a mentor for startup founders to the Montessori method. ... Mentoring should not involve telling a founder what to do," Alapat says. "I see it as a founder whisperer approach that seeks to challenge the founder to think through their journey through different lenses and go on a journey of self-discovery while discovering the true market pain they are seeking to solve. The cherry on top is that the mentor gains as much as the mentee, so learning is happening for both. Ultimately, the meter of achievement with mentoring is seeing visible progress with the maturity of the founder and the degree of traction for their startup."

Kyle Judah, Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Kyle Judah is the executive director of Lilie, where he mentors pre-seed student startups. He also mentors through organizations like TEX-E, Greentown Labs, Activate and previously with MassChallenge. Some of the startups he's mentored include Helix Earth Technologies, Tierra Climate, Solidec, HexaSpec, SteerBio and many others.

"[Being a mentor] means helping to ensure that the most people possible have the best shot possible at making their company a successful reality," Judah says. "It means, at its root, opening the aperture for what is possible for people, by believing in them before anyone else even understands what their ambitions are. Because belief is the most infectious thing in the world. And before digging into the work in the trenches, most times founders need to kickstart their journey by having someone from the outside believe in them, when there's no real evidence to support that belief. So I guess, mentorship is a pure form of entrepreneurial faith."

Rachel Bickham, Bickham Services Unlimited LLC

Rachel Bickham is CEO of Bickham Services Unlimited, through which she mentors founders across a range of business stages and industries. She founded the organization in 2017. Bickham also mentors through The Affirmed Entrepreneur, a mentorship platform that she also launched. In 2024, she also began mentoring through the Goldman Sachs One Million Black Women: Black in Business program. Some of the startups she has worked with included Elaine Transportation, Nakira's World and NP Skills Made Easy, among others.

"Being a mentor means helping someone see what is possible while being honest about what it will take to get there," Bickham says. "It is not about giving generic advice or telling entrepreneurs what they want to hear. Sometimes mentorship means offering encouragement, and sometimes it means asking difficult questions that help someone avoid an expensive mistake. In both situations, my responsibility is to listen, share what I have learned, and help the entrepreneur make an informed decision. ... Being a mentor also means opening doors when I can—making introductions, inviting entrepreneurs into rooms they may not have entered on their own, and helping them build relationships that can change the direction of their businesses. It also means holding them accountable for what they said they wanted to accomplish. I do not measure successful mentorship by how often someone returns to me for an answer. I measure it by whether they become more confident, more strategic, and better equipped to make decisions on their own."

3 Houston incubators and accelerators fueling the growth of local startups

Meet the finalists

It takes a village to launch a business. That's where Houston's network of incubators and accelerators can step in, providing the resources, mentorship and community needed to push a fledgling company forward.

As part of our 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, the Incubator/Accelerator of the Year category honors a local organization that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups.

Three incubators and accelerators have been named finalists for the 2026 award. They support startups ranging from hard-tech companies to food and youth concepts.

Read more about these organizations below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Activate

Hard tech incubator Activate supports scientists in "the outset of their entrepreneurial journey." The Houston hub was introduced in 2024, and joins others in Boston, New York, and Berkley, California—where Activate is headquartered. It named its third Houston cohort this summer.

The two-year program graduated its first class of Houston fellows in 2026 and saw its first alumni IPO from Houston-based Fervo Energy, which previously participated in a Berkley cohort. Nationally, it has supported 346 fellows and 276 companies since 2015. Those companies have raised more than $6 billion in follow-on funding, according to Activate. In Houston, it has supported Houston startups like Solidec, FlowCellutions and Orbital Arc. Activate Houston is led by managing director Jeremy Pitts, who co-founded Greentown Labs in Boston. It is based out of the Ion.

Impact Hub Houston

Impact Hub Houston supports early-stage ventures at various stages of development through innovative programs that address pressing societal issues. The nonprofit organization supports social impact startups through mentorship, connections and training opportunities.

There are more than 110 Impact Hubs globally with members spanning 72 countries. Launched in 2018, Impact Hub Houston says its membership tripled by the beginning of 2026. This year brought major milestones for the community, including the launch of its Ideas to Impact Accelerator, which supported 11 founders across the health, education, food systems, civic technology and workforce development sectors. It also received funding from more than 20 international Impact Hubs to develop SYNC, a collaboration platform that 25 Impact Hubs across five continents have committed to pilot. The organization has worked with local startups including Myoviva Health, The Change Lab and INNERVERSE Inc.

MarMo Innovation

Galveston-based business incubator MarMo Innovation is focused on removing barriers to entrepreneurship. It aims to provide affordable space, education, mentorship, market access, connections and real-world opportunities that help entrepreneurs move from idea to launch to sustainable growth. The "industry-agnostic" incubator was founded in 2022 and is led by Executive Director Erica Delgadillo.

This year, the organization moved from primarily serving as a coworking and community space into a more comprehensive entrepreneurial incubator by expanding its MarMo Market, MarMo Market Jr. and Lunch LineUp programs. A major focus for MarMo is food entrepreneurship. It is developing an Incubator Kitchen, which MarMo says will support programs like its Cottage to Commercial Bootcamp and Food Biz 101. The organization also expanded its board this year and says it is diversifying its revenue through memberships, events, markets, equipment and space rentals, sponsorships, grants and new entrepreneurial programming.

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