Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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XSpace plans $250M industrial condo expansion with RAFA Racing Club

growth mode

Houston-based XSpace Group has teamed up with two other Houston companies, RAFA Racing Club and Maximo Capital, to develop five industrial condo projects that pair flex space and high-end car storage space with a members-only clubhouse for motorsports enthusiasts.

The five projects will be built in the Dallas-Fort Worth; Miami-Boca Raton; Charlotte-Mooresville, North Carolina; Phoenix-Scottsdale; and Los Angeles markets. Other markets, including Las Vegas, are under consideration for future phases.

XSpace says the initial five-project venture will generate estimated sales of $250 million. Condos will be available to rent or own.

The ground floor of each project will feature a RAFA Racing Club Social & Performance Centre, a members-only clubhouse, event space and lifestyle hub. The remaining floors will offer space for car storage, collectibles, offices and studios. RAFA will operate the ground floor of each building.

“Our goal from day one with RAFA Racing has been to connect people through a shared love of performance and community,” Rafael Martinez, founder of RAFA Racing Club and principal of Maximo Capital, said in a news release. “By pairing XSpace’s forward-thinking condominium design with the exclusive hospitality, networking and high-performance environment of a RAFA Racing Club clubhouse, we’re establishing a community blueprint where passion meets community.”

Each clubhouse will offer:

  • Lounges
  • Dining, working and networking spaces
  • Concierge service
  • Driving simulators
  • Fitness and conditioning capabilities

“We’re building the most valuable community-driven real estate product in America — and RAFA Racing Club is the anchor that makes it unlike anything else on the market," Byron Smith, founder of XSpace, added in a release. “By integrating our flexible, high-end industrial condominiums with RAFA’s world-class hospitality and automotive community spaces, we are completely redefining what commercial real estate can be for the motorsports enthusiast.”

RAFA operates facilities for motorsports fans in Houston and Austin. The clubs, geared toward wealthy people, entrepreneurs, executives, and brand partners, combine a clubhouse, garage, paddock (racing’s version of a locker room), a “human performance” center and driver training programs.

RAFA plans to open seven clubs in the U.S. and three outside the U.S. over the next four years.

XSpace operates a high-end office, warehouse, and lifestyle condo project in Austin and is building a project in Houston that’s set to open in 2027.

Walmart expands drone delivery service to 8 new Houston-area stores

Now Landing

More Walmart delivery drones are now buzzing around Houston-area skies.

In January, Walmart launched its drone delivery service in partnership with Wing at five locations in the Houston area. The retail giant just added eight more stores to its Houston-area drone delivery network.

Wing says the expansion makes drone delivery available to more than 1 million residents of the Houston area. “Many can now bypass notorious Houston traffic to get everyday Walmart essentials delivered by drone in minutes,” Wing said in a release.

The eight Walmart stores that joined the drone delivery network are:

  • 13003 Tomball Pkwy. Houston
  • 12353 FM 1960 Rd. West, Houston
  • 2901 Riley Fuzzel Rd., Spring
  • 20310 U.S. Highway 59, New Caney
  • 1025 Sawdust Rd., Spring, TX 77380
  • 13484 Northwest Fwy., Houston, TX
  • 13750 East Fwy., Houston
  • 3506 Highway 6 South, Houston

Stores where drone delivery was already available are:

  • 14215 FM 2100 Rd., Crosby
  • 1313 N. Fry Rd., Katy
  • 15955 FM 529 Rd., Houston
  • 255 FM 518, Kemah
  • 6060 N. Fry Rd., Katy

Houstonians can learn whether their address is eligible for drone delivery from a Walmart store by visiting wing.com/walmart. Drone-delivered orders can be placed on the Walmart app, the Wing app, or at Walmart.com.

Once an order is ready, it’s loaded onto a delivery drone. The drone then flies up to 60 mph and at a cruising altitude of about 150 feet to reach the customer’s home. The average flight takes less than 5 minutes.

Once it arrives at the customer’s home, the drone stops, hovers at roughly 23 feet, and lowers the order via a tether. Wing says its drones gently lower orders to the ground to protect fragile items like eggs and coffee.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

TMC expands Korea BioBridge, welcomes 12 biotech companies to Houston

welcome to hou

The powerful partnership between Texas Medical Center (TMC) innovation and the world of Korean biotech advancement is already growing in scope. Just six months after the new TMC Republic of Korea BioBridge was first announced, 12 new companies from the Republic of Korea will establish on-site presences in Houston to further collaboration between the two nations and medical industries.

The expansion comes from a new agreement between TMC and the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI). William McKeon, president and CEO of Texas Medical Center, applauded the move and predicted it would benefit both Houston and Korea immensely.

“Korea has established itself as a global leader in biohealth innovation, with a growing pipeline of breakthrough technologies across digital health, biotechnology, and medical devices,” McKeon said in the news release. “Through the TMC Korea BioBridge, we are creating a direct connection between Korea’s innovators and the world’s largest medical city. This collaboration between TMC and KHIDI provides companies with a place to establish a presence, build strategic relationships, engage with leading clinicians and researchers, and accelerate the path toward commercialization and patient impact in the United States.”

The companies that will be in residence at the TMC Innovation Factory include Ardens Lifescience, whose new CAROL device is currently in human trials tackling lung cancer by using the airway network as electrodes to perform bronchoscopic ablation; stem cell-based gene therapy firm CELLeBRAIN, currently working on neurological disorders and solid cancers; and Wellysis, the developer of the S-Patch wearable cardiac monitoring device.

Additional companies include:

  • Antigravity
  • ARPI
  • CTCELLS
  • elecell
  • HUVER Inc.
  • Hutom
  • ORGANOIDSCIENCES
  • YOUTH BIO GLOBAL
  • Seoul Medical Informatics Intelligence Lab Inc.

“This collaboration establishes a strong foundation for connecting Korea’s biohealth innovation ecosystem with world-class clinical and innovation resources in the United States,” Younghun Jeong, executive director of the KHIDI, added in the news release. “Through partnerships with Texas Medical Center and the Korean-American Medical Association Texas, we look forward to fostering meaningful collaboration among innovators, clinicians, and industry leaders while creating new opportunities for clinical validation, commercialization, and global growth. KHIDI remains committed to expanding global partnerships that support biohealth innovation, clinical collaboration, commercialization, and international growth.”

This is the seventh international strategic partnership for the TMC. It launched its first BioBridge with the Health Informatics Society of Australia in 2016. It launched its TMC Japan BioBridge, focused on advancing cancer treatments, last year. It also has BioBridge partnerships with the Netherlands, Ireland, Denmark and the United Kingdom.