Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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UTHealth Houston team joins NASA initiative to protect border drinking water

water watch

Climate change means far more to public health than living with hotter days. Transformations in our weather are contributing to challenges in accessing safe drinking water in some communities.

One of the most dire situations is along the US–Mexico border. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is seeking to address that issue with its Water Quality Applications program. An 11-researcher project led by a UTHealth Houston School of Public Health faculty member has been selected to participate.

“Drinking water is one of the most fundamental public health protections, but producing safe drinking water involves a delicate balance,” Yun Hang, assistant professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, said in a news release. Her team’s proposal was one of 93 that were submitted for funding through NASA’s Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES)-2025 program.

This is the first time that NASA has worked with a team devoted to water quality applications. The group, which includes researchers from across the nation, will use satellite observations of Earth, as well as hydrologic modeling, to potentially anticipate and act on water quality conditions as they change. Challenges addressed over the course of the three-year program, which kicked off in June, might include problems with water quality due to climate variability and increased pressure on water resources.

Hang’s team will focus on a pair of borderlands: Paso del Norte and the Rio Grande Valley.

“Working closely with El Paso Water ensures that our research addresses real operational needs while helping utilities better prepare for climate-related water quality changes and continue providing safe drinking water to communities across the Texas border region,” Hang added in the release.

She and the team will use data gathered by NASA on both past and future Earth-observing missions, which will allow them to track environmental changes that may affect source water quality. Combined with past water treatment records and hydrologic models, the team will also utilize artificial intelligence to develop predictive tools that aim to stop issues before they become larger hurdles to water safety.

Another one of the project’s goals is to create visualization tools and source water summaries that can be utilized by those without scientific expertise. The tools will be produced in English and Spanish to further broaden their accessibility.

The hope is that the materials made by the team will also go far beyond the border, with protocols that can be adapted or adopted by other areas dealing with water quality issues.

U.S. News declares Houston hospital No. 1 in Texas for the 15th year

Top of the Chart

Houston Methodist Hospital and over a dozen more Houston-area hospitals have earned bragging rights in U.S. News & World Report's newly released rankings of the Best Hospitals for 2026-2027.

Every year, U.S. News annually evaluates nearly 4,500 U.S. hospitals to determine which meet the publication's rigorous standards and offer the best care for patients across 14 adult specialties and 23 procedures and conditions. New to this year's batch of rankings, U.S. News introduced regional rankings in cancer; cardiology; heart and vascular surgery; orthopedics; and rehabilitation.

Houston Methodist Hospital was the only Texas institution named on U.S. News' Best Hospitals Honor Roll, a prestigious list of the 20 best medical centers in the country. Houston Methodist also reigns as Texas' best hospital for the 15th consecutive year.

The hospital also shines among the nation’s best in 10 specialties:

  • No. 5 – Gastroenterology and GI Surgery
  • No. 7 – Obstetrics and Gynecology
  • No. 10 – Cardiology, Heart, and Vascular Surgery
  • No. 11 – Pulmonology and Lung Surgery
  • No. 13 – Neurology and Neurosurgery
  • No. 19 – Cancer
  • No. 21 – Orthopedics
  • No. 23 – Diabetes and Endocrinology
  • No. 24 – Geriatrics
  • No. 43 – Urology
Houston Methodist also earned high performing distinctions across one regional specialty (Rehabilitation) and 21 procedures and conditions.

"This recognition reflects the remarkable dedication of our physicians and employees and their tireless focus on delivering unparalleled care to our patients," said Houston Methodist president and CEO Marc L. Boom, M.D. in a press release. "While we are honored by this recognition, its true significance lies in what it represents — an unwavering commitment to putting patients first."

Elsewhere in Houston, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center ranked as the No. 1 best cancer hospital in the nation for the 12th year in a row.

"This ranking is a tremendous honor, and it reflects our unwavering commitment to continue making progress in our mission to end cancer," said UT MD Anderson president Peter WT Pisters, M.D. "We are deeply grateful to everyone who made this recognition possible: our faculty and staff, volunteers, donors, and the patients and families we are honored to serve."

MD Anderson also earned national rankings in two specialties — Urology (No. 6) and Gastroenterology and GI Surgery (No. 16) — and it received high performing distinctions in six procedures and conditions: Colon Cancer Surgery; Ear, Nose, and Throat Surgery; Gynecological Cancer Surgery; Leukemia, Lymphoma, and Myeloma Treatment; Lung Cancer Surgery; and Prostate Cancer Surgery.

The additional Houston hospitals that ranked among the best in Texas for 2026-2027 are:

  • No. 3 – Houston Methodist Sugar Land Hospital (tied with Baylor University Medical Center Dallas)
  • No. 5 – Baylor St. Luke's Medical Center, Houston
  • No. 6 – Memorial Hermann Hospital, Houston
  • No. 7 – Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital
  • No. 10 – Memorial Hermann Greater Heights Hospital (tied with St. David's Medical Center, Austin)
  • No. 14 – Houston Methodist Baytown Hospital
  • No. 15 – Memorial Hermann Memorial City Medical Center, Houston
  • No. 21 – Houston Methodist Clear Lake Hospital, Nassau Bay; St. Luke's Health-The Woodlands Hospital; University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston (also tied with six more Texas hospitals)
  • No. 30 – Memorial Hermann Sugar Land Hospital (tied with five other Texas hospitals)
  • No. 36 – HCA Houston Healthcare Kingwood (tied with Parkland Health-Dallas)
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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston helps power Texas’ rise as AI infrastructure hub, new report finds

eyes on ai

Houston plays a major role in Texas’ rapidly evolving AI economy, a new report indicates.

The report from Build American AI, a pro-AI advocacy group, notes Houston’s growing AI presence includes:

  • A factory being built by AI chipmaker NVIDIA and electronics manufacturer Foxconn that will produce AI supercomputers and infrastructure systems
  • Houston Methodist’s use of ambient AI to listen to health care providers’ conversations with patients, eliminating the need for manual notetaking
  • An abundance of AI products and services for the energy sector

Across the state, billions of dollars in new AI investments are fueling advancements in construction, manufacturing, energy production, logistics, and health care, according to the report.

“Texas is not merely a place where AI products will be used. Texas is becoming one of the places where the AI economy is being assembled,” the report says.

Particularly noteworthy are four major AI-related projects around the state representing an investment of more than $140 billion, including Google’s $40 billion buildout of AI data centers.

“While California had a headstart in building the software era, Texas will build the infrastructure era,” says the report. “That is not a slogan. Economic research has revealed for decades that innovation happens where the local conditions make building and collaboration possible, and Texas is positioned to be a central hub.”

According to the report, components of Texas’ infrastructure era include:

  • Energy leadership
  • Top-tier hospitals
  • Semiconductor investments
  • Construction capabilities
  • Data center growth
  • Major companies and universities

On the workforce front, Stanford University’s 2026 AI Index found Texas had 80,547 AI job postings in 2025, accounting for 8 percent of the national total.

“Texas no longer needs to ask whether AI will reshape the economy. It already has,” the report concludes. “The question is whether Texas will merely host part of that future or lead it.”