Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

------

This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

14 climatech startups join Greentown Houston in first half of 2026

green team

Climatech incubator Greentown Labs reports that 14 startups have joined its Houston community so far this year.

The companies are among 30 new startups to have joined Greentown Houston and Greentown Boston in 2026. Four of the companies are headquartered in Houston.

The startups are working on a range of "hydrogen-powered heavy-duty transport to AI-driven grid interconnection," according to Greentown.

The local startups that joined Greentown Houston include:

  • Houston-based Focis AI, which transforms industrial laser scans into structured asset intelligence to automatically identify, classify and map components in refineries and plants
  • Houston-based Iron Lattice, which develops next-generation memory technology for AI and high-performance computing that improves energy efficiency, endurance and scalability while remaining compatible with existing semiconductor manufacturing
  • Houston-based Orbital Arc, which is developing a new ion engine designed to improve the efficiency and scalability of spacecraft propulsion from low Earth orbit to deep space
  • Houston-based Sustain Energy LLC, which delivers cleaner, lower-cost fuel to industrial customers in pipeline-absent, underserved markets, cutting their energy costs and emissions with no infrastructure investment on their end

Other startups from around the world joined the Houston incubator in the same time period, including:

  • Ankara-based AIS Field, which develops robotic, AI-assisted non-destructive inspection systems, including submersible tank and boiler crawlers
  • San Francisco-based Armada AI, which builds rapidly deployable modular and edge data centers that run on local, stranded, or renewable power
  • San Francisco-based Armeta, which turns complex engineering drawings and legacy documentation into structured, usable data
  • Pittsburgh-based Atlas Robotics, which develops a Physical AI platform that powers autonomous material-handling robots and AI-guided forklifts
  • Ghana-based Cocoa Potash, which transforms high-emissions agricultural waste from cocoa, coconut, and palm-nut into organic potash, fertilizer and renewable energy
  • Israel-based Criaterra, which produces low-carbon, cement-free building materials
  • Italy-based ETAK, which manufactures modular reactors that convert solid waste into clean syngas
  • Kenya-based FelixFusion, which uses its Felix platform to model every grid connection point, including capacity, upgrade costs, and constraints
  • San Diego-based Gemini Energy, which builds next-generation fuel cells for data-center power
  • Tokyo-based Hibot, which develops robotic systems for inspecting and maintaining infrastructure in hazardous, hard-to-access environments
  • Austin-based Sheetak, which designs and manufactures thermoelectric coolers, generators, and assemblies for solid-state cooling and energy harvesting
  • The Netherlands-based ToPerform, which makes AI-powered, non-intrusive fouling sensors that monitor pipelines around the clock and predict the optimal cleaning time

Another 16 startups joined Greentown's Boston incubator. See the full list of new members here.

More than 100 startups joined Greentown last year, according to an end-of-year reflection shared by Greentown CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter. Read more about them here.

---

This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

$12M pharmaceutical manufacturing facility to be built in Sugar Land

coming soon

A nearly $12 million drug manufacturing facility is coming to Sugar Land.

City leaders in Sugar Land recently approved a $1.3 million performance-based incentive for DeliverIt Group, a Sugar Land-based provider of specialty pharmacy, infusion therapy and clinical care services, for the development of the 60,000-square-foot facility.

The facility, which will be registered with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), will compound medication. The process of drug compounding combines, mixes or alters ingredients to create a medication tailored to a certain patient. A compounded drug is created when an FDA-approved drug can’t meet a patient’s needs.

The facility, which will employ 55 people, will expand DeliverIt’s offerings from specialty pharmacy and infusion services to advanced pharmaceutical manufacturing. In a press release, the City of Sugar Land says the facility reinforces the suburb’s status as a hub for life sciences and health care innovation.

DeliverIt, founded in 2010, already employs about 60 people.

The $1.3 million incentive, to be distributed over the course of 10 years, is being funded through the Sugar Land Development Corporation’s 4A sales tax program.

“The addition of a pharmaceutical manufacturing operation of this caliber reflects the type of targeted growth we want to see in Sugar Land,” Jennifer Alexander, business development manager for the City of Sugar Land, said in a news release. “Our focus on smart, strategic investment means supporting life sciences innovators in ways that maximize existing assets while driving long-term community prosperity.”

The current size of the U.S. drug-compounding market is estimated at $7.42 billion, and it’s projected to climb to $12.79 billion by 2035, according to Towards Healthcare Research and Consulting.

Drug compounding is gaining momentum due to increases in personalized medicine and personal treatment approaches, with growth being supported by aging populations and the rise of chronic illnesses, Towards Healthcare says.

XSpace plans $250M industrial condo expansion with RAFA Racing Club

growth mode

Houston-based XSpace Group has teamed up with two other Houston companies, RAFA Racing Club and Maximo Capital, to develop five industrial condo projects that pair flex space and high-end car storage space with a members-only clubhouse for motorsports enthusiasts.

The five projects will be built in the Dallas-Fort Worth; Miami-Boca Raton; Charlotte-Mooresville, North Carolina; Phoenix-Scottsdale; and Los Angeles markets. Other markets, including Las Vegas, are under consideration for future phases.

XSpace says the initial five-project venture will generate estimated sales of $250 million. Condos will be available to rent or own.

The ground floor of each project will feature a RAFA Racing Club Social & Performance Centre, a members-only clubhouse, event space and lifestyle hub. The remaining floors will offer space for car storage, collectibles, offices and studios. RAFA will operate the ground floor of each building.

“Our goal from day one with RAFA Racing has been to connect people through a shared love of performance and community,” Rafael Martinez, founder of RAFA Racing Club and principal of Maximo Capital, said in a news release. “By pairing XSpace’s forward-thinking condominium design with the exclusive hospitality, networking and high-performance environment of a RAFA Racing Club clubhouse, we’re establishing a community blueprint where passion meets community.”

Each clubhouse will offer:

  • Lounges
  • Dining, working and networking spaces
  • Concierge service
  • Driving simulators
  • Fitness and conditioning capabilities

“We’re building the most valuable community-driven real estate product in America — and RAFA Racing Club is the anchor that makes it unlike anything else on the market," Byron Smith, founder of XSpace, added in a release. “By integrating our flexible, high-end industrial condominiums with RAFA’s world-class hospitality and automotive community spaces, we are completely redefining what commercial real estate can be for the motorsports enthusiast.”

RAFA operates facilities for motorsports fans in Houston and Austin. The clubs, geared toward wealthy people, entrepreneurs, executives, and brand partners, combine a clubhouse, garage, paddock (racing’s version of a locker room), a “human performance” center and driver training programs.

RAFA plans to open seven clubs in the U.S. and three outside the U.S. over the next four years.

XSpace operates a high-end office, warehouse, and lifestyle condo project in Austin and is building a project in Houston that’s set to open in 2027.