Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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Generation Park lands new facility to scale xeno-organ production

Organ innovation

Maryland-based United Therapeutics Corp. has opened a new 77,448-square-foot facility to manufacture xeno-organs in Northeast Houston’s growing biotech hub, Generation Park.

The new Houston location is United Therapeutics’ third Designated Pathogen-Free (DPF) site, named for transplant pioneers Dr. Bartley P. Griffith and Dr. Robert A. Montgomery. The company says the new facility will enable it to scale commercial production of its xeno-organs once they receive regulatory approval.

An existing DPF facility in Virginia is supporting clinical trials for the xeno-organs, and a third site in Minnesota will also focus on commercialization with the Houston site, according to the company.

Xeno-organs are organs taken from a non-human animal source and transplanted, implanted or infused into a human recipient.

Currently, United Therapeutics is advancing clinical trials to support a Biologics License Application with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its investigational-stage xenotransplantation, UKidney, UThymoKidney and UHeart products. The products all involve working with the genes from humans and pigs.

In 2025, Chron.com reported the company was working to construct an estimated $96 million facility to breed genetically engineered animals. Head of investor relations at United Therapeutics Dewey Steadman told the Houston Business Journal in 2025 that the pigs’ DNA will be edited. In November 2024, a 53-year-old woman in Alabama received a transplanted kidney from UKidney that had 10 gene edits. She had the transplant removed in April 2025, after her body rejected it.

The Dr. Bartley P. Griffith and Dr. Robert A. Montgomery Xenograft Production Facility requires a “strictly controlled, biosecure barrier environment, including air filtration, filtered water, filtered feed supplies, and state-of-the-art decontamination entryways,” according to the company. Being pathogen-free means it includes calibrated air and water conduits to support the transplantability of xenograft products and to prevent contamination. For energy considerations, the building also features solar arrays.

“With our third xenograft production facility now open and clinical trials underway, United Therapeutics is moving closer to its goal of providing transplantable organs to the people who need them,” Martine Rothblatt, chairperson and CEO of United Therapeutics, said in a news release. “It is fitting that this facility is named for Dr. Griffith and Dr. Montgomery, whose first-in-human surgeries turned xenotransplantation from a theoretical possibility into a clinical reality.”

The facility, which wrapped construction in August, is located at 11848 Common Dock Dr. in Generation Park, which will house manufacturing sites for pharmaceutical heavyweights Bristol Myers Squibb and Eli Lilly. Last fall, Eli Lilly tapped Generation Park for its $6.5 billion manufacturing plant, and Bristol Myers Squibb made a $2.3 billion investment in August to bring its state-of-the-art site to the master-planned commercial district.

Elon Musk's SpaceX reports profit as AI and satellite businesses booms

Booming Business

SpaceX reported a bigger quarterly profit than expected on Tuesday, October 20, as its satellite communications and artificial intelligence businesses boomed.

The company, run by Elon Musk, posted a profit for the three months through September 2026 of $4.4 billion, or 35 cents per share, reversing a year-ago loss and easily topping Wall Street's expectations. Revenue soared to $14.6 billion, up 161%.

On a conference call with analysts, Musk suggested a merger with his electric car company Tesla might be in the works, something that has been rumored for months. He said both companies formed “special committees” of independent directors to discuss the issue, though he played down the chances of an imminent deal.

“Some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty,” he said. “I think that would be overstating it.”

The AI business became SpaceX's largest by revenue in the third quarter, although the Starlink satellite service remains the biggest profit generator.

“They beat across all metrics and the Starlink business looks to be accelerating,” said Dan Ives, an analyst at Yorkville Ives. “This is just what (Wall) Street wanted.”

The stock rose 7.5% in after-hours trading.

Musk also told analysts that for next month's launch of its Starship rocket, SpaceX will attempt to grab both the booster and ship with mechanical arms upon return to base, a key step toward demonstrating it can reuse the massive spacecraft.

“The only way that we can extend consciousness beyond Earth on a sustained basis is with a fully reusable orbital launch vehicle,” Musk said, calling the attempt, if successful, “a massive technology milestone.”

SpaceX hopes to get Starship on a regular launch pattern in preparation for NASA's upcoming lunar missions.

The company already has huge contracts with the federal government, and House Democrats have called for investigations into those contracts and Musk’s work with the Department of Government Efficiency. Musk has spent $276 million since July in support of Republican candidates.

In a filing for its initial public offering in June, SpaceX warned that a change in control of Congress could have a “material and adverse impact on our growth and competitive position.”

Musk recently drew criticism from politicians in Washington after speeds for a military version of SpaceX's satellite communications service were slowed for Ukraine following President Donald Trump's deal to get more diesel oil from Russia amid a push to end the war. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that it was Musk who ordered the slowdown, impeding Ukraine’s use of drones along the front. SpaceX did not immediately respond to an Associated Press request for comment on the Journal story.

Both Trump and Musk have denied responsibility for the slowdown.

As midterm elections near, Musk on Monday promised to give one share of SpaceX to “every kid in America” next year, though he provided no details on how the distribution would be carried out. With communities nationwide protesting the construction of large data centers and concerns about AI safety, AI companies are trying to build goodwill. Anthropic pledged to commit 5% of its shares to a new “public benefit” fund.

SpaceX shares have been under pressure over concerns that the company was spending too much on major projects to compete with rivals such as Anthropic. The company said capital expenditures totaled $19.6 billion last quarter, nearly triple the figure from a year earlier, and it forecast spending would grow to $35 billion to $40 billion in the current quarter.

Shares of SpaceX closed Tuesday at $147.79, down from a peak near $201 after its IPO, which made Musk the world’s first trillionaire at the time. But the share prices for SpaceX and Tesla have since dropped, reducing his net worth to $925 billion, according to Forbes magazine.

Tesla reports third-quarter financial results Wednesday. Last week, Tesla unveiled a new Roadster sports car that in some versions may include thrusters allowing it to briefly fly using SpaceX technology — though experts say anything usable for drivers is a long shot.

These 5 trailblazing Houston startups are leading the energy transition

meet the finalists

Houston is home to a growing number of startups reshaping what it means to be called the "Energy Capital of the World."

As part of the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, our Energy Transition Business category honors those innovative startups that are providing solutions within renewables, climatetech, clean energy, alternative materials, circular economy and more.

Five clean energy startups have been named finalists for the 2026 award. The finalists, selected by our esteemed panel of judges, range from a lower-emission steel producer to a diagnostics platform developer working to support batteries used in data centers.

Read more about these innovative businesses, their initiatives, and their inspirational founders below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Capwell Services

Methane capture company Capwell Services works to eliminate vented oil and gas emissions economically for operators. According to the company, methane emissions are vented from most oil and gas facilities due to safety protocols, and operators are not able to capture the gas cost-effectively, leading operators to emit more than 14 million metric tons of methane per year in the U.S. and Canada. Founded in 2022, Capwell specializes in low and intermittent flow vents for methane capture.

The company began as a University of Pennsylvania senior design project led by CEO Andrew Lane. It has since participated in programs with Greentown Labs, the Rice Clean Energy Accelerator and the Creative Destruction Lab Energy Cohort at Texas A&M University. The company moved to Houston in 2023 and raised a pre-seed round. It deployed two commercial units this year, according to its application.

FlowCellutions

Energytech startup FlowCellutions is developing a chemistry-agnostic diagnostics platform for flow and metal-air batteries supporting data centers and critical infrastructure. The platform is designed to help reduce operating costs, prevent failures and costly downtime, and extend battery lifetime from approximately seven years to more than 30 years. It has deployed four paid pilots and plans to take insights from the programs to develop its next-gen sensor platform technology.

CEO Becca Segel founded the company in 2022. It is a member of Greentown Labs, and Segel was a 2025 Activate Fellow. The company has raised over $2 million in non-dilutive funding and received a $1.5 million NSF SBIR Fast-Track award earlier this year.

Hertha Metals

Hertha Metals produces lower-cost, lower-emission steel and high-purity iron. The company has developed a single-step process that uses natural gas as a direct reductant instead of metallurgical coal, which cuts production costs by more than 25 percent and emissions by up to 50 percent, according to the company. The same process produces high-purity iron needed for high-purity steels and rare earth magnets. The company says it aims to "re-industrialize America’s production of critical materials."

Hertha Metals was founded by CEO Laureen Meroueh in 2022 and emerged from stealth last year with more than $17 million in venture capital funding. The company closed a $133.65 million Series A this month and also broke ground on its $100M high-purity iron factory known as Chalyx in Conroe.

Mars Materials

Clean chemical manufacturing business Mars Materials is working to convert captured carbon into resources, such as carbon fiber and wastewater treatment chemicals. The company develops and produces its drop-in chemical products in Houston and uses an in-licensed process for the National Renewable Energy Lab to produce acrylonitrile, which is used to produce plastics, synthetic fibers, and rubbers.

Founded in 2019 by CEO Aaron Fitzgerald, CTO Kristian Gubsch, and vice president of operations Trey Sheridan, the company has secured over $7.2M in financing and is backed by Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy, Shell, Black & Veatch, and other organizations. It won in the Minority-founded Business Category in last year's Houston Innovation Awards.

Solidec

Chemical manufacturing company Solidec has developed autonomous generators that extract molecules from water and air and convert them into pure chemicals and fuels that are free of carbon emissions on-site, eliminating the need for transport, storage, and permitting. The company was founded around innovations developed by Rice University associate professor Haotian Wang.

The company was selected for the Chevron Technology Ventures’ Catalyst Program, Greentown Labs, NSF I-Corps and was part of the first cohort of the Activate Houston program. It won first place at the 2024 startup pitch competition at CERAWeek. Solidec was founded in 2023 by Wang, who serves as an advisor, CEO Ryan DuChanois, and CTO Yang Xia. It closed a $2.5 million seed round in 2025.