Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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6+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events in March

where to be

Editor's note: March brings the return of some of Houston’s signature innovation events, plus insightful talks and celebrations in honor of Women's History Month. Here’s what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional event listings.

March 3-4 — Houston MedTech Rodeo

Head to Armadillo Palace for the annual Houston MedTech Rodeo. The casual, Texas-themed conference brings together 350 medtech professionals who come from over 10 countries and 15 states to highlight Houston's growing medtech ecosystem. The event will feature panel discussions, startup showcases, networking sessions—plus, armadillo races, mechanical bull riding and live country music.

The event begins March 3 at Armadillo Palace on Kirby Drive. Register here.

March 4 – Humans of Healthcare

Houston Methodist Center for Innovation will present its new quarterly speaker series, Humans of Healthcare. The series will feature a panel of experts who will share about their career paths and discuss the nuances of the health care industry. This month's session will focus on IT. The panel will be moderated by Houston Methodist's Director of Innovation Murat Uralkan.

The event is Wednesday, March 4, from 5-6 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

March 5 — The Future of Women in STEM

Celebrate Women's History Month at SUPERGirls SHINE Foundation's The Future of Women in STEM event, presented in partnership with the Ion. The event will feature speakers and panelists, including Kalila Winters Hines, senior public affairs advisor for Holland & Knight; Dr. Natacha Chough, NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Surgeon; and Andrea Course, rocket scientist and founder of Course Investments.

The event is Thursday, March 5, from 8:30-10 a.m. at the Ion. Register here.

March 10-12 — World Hydrogen & Carbon Americas

S&P Global Energy brings together two leading events—Carbon Management Americas and World Hydrogen North America—to form a new must-attend event for those in the hydrogen and carbon industries. More than 800 senior leaders from across the energy value chain will attend this event featuring immersive roundtable discussions, hands-on training, real-world case studies and unparalleled networking opportunities.

This event begins March 10 at the Marriott Marquis Houston. Register here.

March 20 — Ideas to Impact Accelerator Graduation and Showcase

Join Impact Hub Houston as it celebrates its inaugural Ideas to Impact Accelerator cohort. The 16-week accelerator is designed to help early-stage entrepreneurs validate their business models, strengthen confidence and gain traction. Hear short pitches and network with founders and mentors.

The event is Friday, March 20, from noon-2 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

March 23-27 — CERAWeek 2026

CERAWeek 2026 will focus on "Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics." The industry's foremost thought leaders will convene in Houston to cultivate relationships and exchange transformative ideas during the annual event. CERAWeek 2026 will explore breakthroughs, cross-industry connections and powerful partnerships that are accelerating the transformation of the global energy system. 2026 highlights include an appearance by tech magnate Bill Gates.

This event begins March 23. Register here.

March 24-25 — 2026 Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition

The Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition, co-hosted by the Rice Alliance, Ion, HETI and TEX-E, offers two days of exciting pitches from more than 40 global energy ventures that are transforming the industry. On Tuesday, March 24, you can attend a fast-paced pitch preview event at the Ion, followed by the official Pitch Competition at 1 pm on Wednesday, March 25, at the George R. Brown Convention Center.

March 30-April 4 — H-Town Roundup

Celebrate innovation, entrepreneurship and collaboration at Houston Exponential's sixth-annual H-Town Roundup. During the free event series, previously known as Houston Tech Rodeo, attendees can expect insightful talks, workshops and networking events at venues across the city.

This event begins Monday, March 30. Register here.

Intuitive Machines secures $175M equity investment to fuel growth

space funding

Houston-based space infrastructure and services company Intuitive Machines has secured a $175 million equity investment from unidentified institutional investors. The investors received shares of Class A stock in exchange for their funding.

Publicly held Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: LUNR) says it plans to use the capital to help build revenue and invest in technology, including communications and data-processing networks.

“We are building a scalable infrastructure platform from low-Earth orbit to the moon and into deep space,” Intuitive Machines CEO Steve Altemus said in a news release. “With this investment, we can accelerate the integration of the combined company’s collective capabilities to deliver next-generation data, communications, and space-based infrastructure services.”

Intuitive Machines says the $175 million investment will improve its ability to secure deals for satellite systems, the proposed Golden Dome missile defense system and the proposed Mars telecommunications orbiter.

As the company pursues those deals, it’s seeking partners to develop space-based data centers.

The $175 million equity stake comes on the heels of Intuitive Machines completing its $800 million cash-and-stock purchase of Lanteris Space Systems. Intuitive Machines bought the satellite manufacturer from private equity firm Advent International.

In the third quarter, which ended Sept. 30, Intuitive Machines posted a $10 million net loss on revenue of $52.4 million.