Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

For the second decade in a row, Houston could have the second highest number of new residents for any metro area. Photo by DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Houston expects to see huge population surge this decade, study says

incoming

Brace yourselves, Houston. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Houston is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows Houston gained 1,284,268 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, Houston ranked second among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, Houston is projected to tack on another 1,242,781 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the second highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. That's around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

For Houston, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.2 percent, down from 21.6 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country's fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

The outlook is based on data from Moody's Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area's birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

The forecast indicates Houston won't be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to once again lead the nation's metro areas for the number of new residents. DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019, ranking first among U.S. metro areas for the number of new residents.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents. That would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area for the second decade in a row.

The 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, an estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW, making it the country's fourth largest metro. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW's population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn't include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Texas was named the second best state for business by Forbes, and Oxford Economics predicted Houston's economic growth to be more significant over the next few years than most other major metros. Getty Images

Texas recognized as second best state for business, while Houston expected to see key economic growth

Feathers for our cap

Houston and the rest of Texas received two early Christmas presents signaling that their economies continue to percolate.

In a report released December 23, economic forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth will enjoy a greater share of economic growth through 2023 than any other mega-metro area in the U.S. except San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine declared on December 19 that Texas is the second best state for business, behind only North Carolina. Texas previously sat in the No. 3 spot on the Forbes list, preceded by North Carolina and Utah.

Through 2023, Oxford Economics forecasts average compound GDP growth of 2.4 percent in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. Among the country's 10 biggest metro areas, only the projection for San Francisco is higher (2.7 percent).

For Houston, the 2.4 percent figure would be an improvement over recent economic performance. From 2014 to 2018, the region's GDP growth rate was 1 percent, while it was 1.5 percent for 2015-19. In the 2020-21 timeframe, the growth rate for Houston is expected to be 1.9 percent.

In a recent forecast, the Greater Houston Partnership envisions the Houston area adding 42,300 jobs in 2020, mostly outside the energy sector. Among the region's top-performing sectors in 2020 will be healthcare, government, food services, and construction, the partnership says. Meanwhile, the energy, retail, and information sectors are expected to shrink.

In November, Robert Gilmer of the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting explained that by the end of 2022, job losses in the oil industry should have a limited effect on the region's economy. Still, he anticipates Houston's job growth through 2024 will be "moderate and just below trend."

In forecasting strong economic growth for Houston and DFW, Oxford Economics says the "industrial structures" of the two regions "are not exceptional, but low costs and low regulation mean that the industries that they do have grow faster than elsewhere."

"San Francisco's very high costs are creating affordability problems and rising inequalities that may eventually undermine its model," Oxford Economics adds. "Competitive advantages never last forever. The Sunbelt cities [including Houston and DFW] may yet give it a run for its money."

Houston's and DFW's competitive advantages mesh with those of the entire state. Texas' high points include lower taxes, lower labor expenses, lower cost of living, and low levels of regulation, Oxford Economics says.

As noted by Forbes, Moody's Analytics predicts Texas businesses will add close to 1 million new jobs by 2023, which would be the third highest average annual job growth rate among the states. Meanwhile, the share of Texans who launched businesses last year was the fourth highest in the country, according to Kauffman Foundation data cited by Forbes. And just three states — California, New York and Washington — saw more venture capital flow into them in 2018 and 2019 than Texas did, according to PwC.

Texas earned these rankings on the Forbes list:

  • No. 1 state for growth prospects
  • No. 1 state for business costs
  • No. 4 state for economic climate
  • No. 10 state for labor supply
  • No. 15 state for quality of life
  • No. 21 state for regulatory environment
In his 2019 State of the State address, Gov. Greg Abbott praised Texas as "the most powerful state in America," thanks in part to healthy job growth, low unemployment, and rising wages. "Texas is the premier economic destination in the United States," he said.
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Houston semiconductor researchers join DARPA-funded Texas team

teaming up

A team led by the University of Texas at Austin and partnered with Rice University was awarded $840 million to develop “the next generation of high-performing semiconductor microsystems" for the U.S. Department of Defense.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) selected UT’s Texas Institute for Electronics (TIE) semiconductor consortium to establish a national open access R&D and prototyping fabrication facility.

The facility hopes to enable the DOD to create higher performance, lower power, lightweight, and compact defense systems. The technology could apply to radar, satellite imaging, unmanned aerial vehicles, or other systems, and ultimately will assist with national security and global military leadership. As a member of DARPA’s Next Generation Microelectronics Manufacturing (NGMM) team, Rice’s contributions are key.

Executive vice president for research Ramamoorthy Ramesh and the Rice researchers will focus on technologies for improving computing efficiency. In a Rice press release, Ramesh notes the need to enhance “energy-efficient computing” which highlights Rice’s qualifications to contribute to the solution.

New microsystem designs will be enabled by 3D heterogeneous integration (3DHI)semi, which is a semiconductor fabrication technology that integrates diverse materials and components into microsystems via precision assembly technologies.

Kepler Computing, is a member of the NGMM team and utilizes ferroelectrics to develop energy-efficient approaches in computer memory and logic, and was co-founded by Ramesh. Other Rice researchers include:

  • Lane Martin, director of the Rice Advanced Materials Institute
  • Ashok Veeraraghavan, chair of electrical and computer engineering
  • Pulickel Ajayan, the Benjamin M. and Mary Greenwood Anderson Professor of Engineering and founding chair of the materials science and nanoengineering department
  • Kaiyuan Yang, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering
  • Guha Balakrishnan, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering

“Given the rapid growth of machine learning AI applications, there is a pressing need to fundamentally rethink current computing methodologies to advance the next generation of microelectronics,” Ramesh says in a news release. ”Rice University boasts world-class researchers with exceptional expertise in computer and electrical engineering poised to bolster this critical federally funded initiative.”

Overall, the project represents a total investment of $1.4 billion. The $840 million award from DARPA is a return on the Texas Legislature’s $552 million investment in TIE. TIE has funded the update of two UT fabrication facilities.

“TIE is tapping into the semiconductor talent available in Texas and nationally to build an outstanding team of semiconductor technologists and executives that can create this national center of excellence in 3DHI microsystems,” S.V. Sreenivasan, TIE founder and chief technology officer and UT professor of mechanical engineering adds.

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This article originally ran on EnergyCapital.

Houstonian shares journey of entrepreneurship from pivot to exit to focus on inspiring positivity

HOUSTON INNOVATORS PODCAST EPISODE 247

After years of tolling over her athleisure wear startup, Megan Eddings knew what her company needed for it to be successful, and she knew she wasn't the right person to do it.

Accel Lifestyle, a clothing brand based on Edding's patented antimicrobial Prema fabric, launched late in 2019 just ahead of boutique fitness studio craze was significantly affected by the pandemic. After pivoting to face masks, including manufacturing tens of thousands for the United States Military, Eddings says she went into the next few years with Accel being back on track to design stink-resistant workout clothing.

But Eddings knew the company needed a huge marketing push to make a splash in the direct-to-consumer world.

"The core of who I am is not a social media person," she says on the Houston Innovators Podcast. "That isn't my skillset. If you sell a product, one of the only ways to become wildly successful is to have an incredible marketing strategy that you need a lot of money to build and create. That is not something that I liked.

"I was so passionate about inventing something, but in order to really scale to the next level, I would have had to take on quite a bit of investment money," she continues.

The process of figuring this out wasn't fast — and it wasn't easy, Eddings says. It took a lot of soul searching and figuring out her strengths and what was right for her.

Eddings says she started considering B2B opportunities — some of which were with major retail brands — but these companies weren't willing to make the financial commitment to Accel or its Prema fabric. The one exception was Talbots, which agreed to stock Accel's clothing.

"It was like trying to fit a round peg into a square hole for a solid year," she says, explaining the emotional and mental toll the process took on her.

Eddings says that just as the opportunity for entrepreneurship found her — by way of her husband's sweaty workout gear she felt convinced she could improve — the next opportunity for Accel found her as well. Eddings was invited to film a segment featuring Accel's products on TV.

As great of an opportunity as it was to sell Accel's products, the segment would be even more meaningful to the company. Shortly after the it aired, a man reached out to Eddings with an acquisition offer from him and his two Australian colleagues who want to build a clothing brand as big as Patagonia, Eddings says.

"When the three men flew in, we had a three-hour lunch and I felt like I was sitting with friends," Eddings says. "I decided I was going to sell, and that was pretty much it." The terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Eddings, whose background in medical sales originally brought her to Houston 12 years ago, turned back to the business world — this time tackling another new industry: oil and gas. She's now the chief strategy officer of Houston-based consultancy New Wave Offshore Energy. And as much as she likes this new role, she says she's ready to add onto her plate a new venture taking her experience with making pivots and incorporating positivity into every asset of her life.

"What I've realized is everyone wants to be happier. When I would give talks about entrepreneurship, the No. 1 question I would get as a founder is 'how do you stay so positive?'" Eddings says.

With this inspiration, she's starting a podcast — The Pivot to Positivity — and has already filmed a pilot episode of a TV show with the same focus.

"Everyone just needs more joy in their life," Eddings says.

Future-focused Houston nonprofit names new leader

taking the helm

A nonprofit organization dedicated to leading Houston into the future has named its next leader.

The Center for Houston’s Future named David Gow as president and CEO, succeeding Brett Perlman, who was announced in April to be remaining at the Center with a focus on the Center’s hydrogen initiative. Gow is the founder and chairman of Gow Media, InnovationMap's parent company. His role is effective September 3.

“I am excited to step into this opportunity with the Center and work with the team, the board and many other stakeholders to help shape Houston’s future,” Gow says in a news release. “The Center presents an exciting opportunity to cast a vision for our region and identify initiatives that will make an impact.”

Gow — whose career includes a portfolio of online media properties and ESPN Radio — is a board member of Goose Capital and chair of MSAI, an entity he formed through a SPAC acquisition. Before he founded Gow Media, he served as CFO and CEO of an online watch retailer, Ashford.com. Prior to Ashford, Gow was director of corporate strategy at Compaq Computers and a consultant at McKinsey & Co. He received his master’s in public policy from Harvard and his bachelor's in economics from Williams College.

“David’s portfolio of experiences and skills, record of innovation and success, and deep commitment to the Houston community make him the perfect fit to lead the Center as we chart and execute on our next set of initiatives focused on ensuring a bright future for all residents in the Houston region,” adds Center for Houston’s Future Board Chair Cindy Yeilding.

In his new role, Gow will lead the Center’s next effort, Vision 2050, which plans to identify the city's key issues, gaps, and opportunities.

“Today’s announcement also reflects the success of the Center’s clean hydrogen program,” Yeilding continues. “On behalf of the Center’s board, I’d also like to recognize Brett for launching and building such a successful and important effort as well as his overall leadership and record of achievement at the Center these past seven years.”

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