Houston research: Can predictive tools help forecast the stock market?

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The stock market has always been hard, if not impossible, to forecast. Image via Getty Images

What do you think the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will do over the next year?

When Rice Business finance professor Kevin Crotty asks his MBA students this question, the answers are all over the map. Some students expect the overall return on the stock market to be 10 percent, while others predict a loss of 20 percent.

This guessing game is closer to real life than many people realize. Experienced investors, people who have watched the stock market ebb and flow for many years, know that making predictions is a risky business. “Many money managers are more confident choosing individual stocks than trying to time the market,” says finance professor Kevin Crotty.

For most of the past century, academics have applied their power of analysis to understanding and predicting the stock market. Recently, some finance researchers have taken a closer look at option prices—the price paid for the right to buy or sell a security (like a stock or bond) at a specified price in the future. Combining economic theory with high-frequency options price data, they argued that they could estimate the expected return on the market in real-time, which would represent a tremendous development for finance practitioners and academics alike.

Crotty teamed up with Kerry Back, a fellow Rice Business professor, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour, a finance Ph.D. student at the Jones Graduate School of Business, to evaluate whether the new predictors based on option prices really are a valuable forecasting tool. “Options are essentially a forward-looking contract, so it’s possible that they could be used to create a forward-looking measure of expected returns,” says Kazempour.

Economic theory suggests that the new predictors might systematically underestimate expected returns. The team set out to test if this may be the case, and if so, whether the predictors are useful as a forecasting tool. In their paper, “Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds,” the Rice Business researchers ran the predictors through a more rigorous set of statistical tests that provide more power to detect whether the predictors systematically underestimate expected returns. The statistical tests used in previous research on the topic were less stringent, leading to conclusions that the predictors do not underestimate expected returns.

In short, the new predictors didn’t pass the more stringent tests. The researchers found that forecasts built on stock options consistently underestimated market returns. Moreover, the predictors are enough of an underestimate that they are not very useful as forecasts of market returns.

The results were somewhat anticlimatic, the researchers admit. If the option-based predictors had panned out, it could have become an innovative new tool for thinking about market timing for asset managers as well as investment decision-making for corporate finance projects. “Trying to estimate expected market returns is closely related to whether corporations decide to invest in projects,” notes Crotty. “The expected market return is an input in estimating the cost of capital when evaluating projects, and I explain in my MBA courses that we don’t have very precise estimates for this input. During this research project, I kept thinking about how cool it would be if we really had a better estimate,” he says.

Their research doesn’t end here. Crotty and Back have already begun brainstorming ways to potentially improve the option-based forecasting tool so that it can become more accurate.

At best, though, using option prices as a forecasting tool will only be one ingredient out of many that investors use to make decisions. “This tool may inform money management, but it will never drive it,” says Back.

For now, at least, the Rice researchers believe that trying to predict the stock market is still a very risky game.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Rice Professors Kerry Back and Kevin Crotty.

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Texas cybersecurity co. expands unique train-to-hire model to Houston

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It’s increasingly more difficult to ensure the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of proprietary data and information in the ever-changing, ever-evolving digital world.

Cyberattacks, including malware, phishing, and ransomware, are becoming increasingly common and sophisticated, posing a consistent threat to a company’s sustainability and bottom line.

To combat that trend, Nukudo, a San Antonio-based cybersecurity workforce development company, is expanding its initiative to bridge the global cybersecurity talent gap through immersive training and job placement to Houston.

“We saw that there was a need in the market because there's a shortage of skilled manpower within the cybersecurity industry and other digital domains,” says Dean Gefen, CEO of NukuDo. “So, our initial goal was to take a large pool of people and then make them to be fully operational in cybersecurity in the shortest amount of time.”

The company refers to the plan as the “training-to-employment model,” which focuses on providing structured training to select individuals who then acquire the skills and knowledge necessary to secure and maintain fruitful careers.

The company identifies potential associates through its proprietary aptitude test, which recognizes individuals who possess the innate technical acumen and potential for success in various cybersecurity roles, regardless of their level of education.

“We take in people from all walks of life, meaning the program is purely based on the associate’s potential,” Gefen says. “We have people who were previously aircraft engineers, teachers, graphic designers, lawyers, insurance agents and so forth.”

Once selected, associates are trained by cybersecurity experts while gaining hands-on experience through scenario-based learning, enabling them to be deployed immediately as fully operational cybersecurity professionals.

The program training lasts just six months—all paid—followed by three years of guaranteed employment with NukuDo.

While in training, associates are paid $ 4,000 per month; then, they’re compensated by nearly double that amount over the next three years, ultimately pushing their salaries to well into the six figures after completing the entire commitment.

In addition to fostering a diverse talent pipeline in the cybersecurity field, NukuDo is creating a comprehensive solution to address the growing shortage of technical talent in the global workforce.

And arming people with new marketable skills has a litany of benefits, both professional and personal, Gefen says.

“Sometimes, we have associates who go on to make five times their previous salary,” says Gefen. “Add to that fact that we had someone that had a very difficult life beforehand and we were able to put him on a different path. That really hits home for us that we are making a difference.

Nulkudo currently has partnerships with companies such as Accenture Singapore and Singapore Airlines. Gefen says he and his team plans to have a new class of associates begin training every month by next year and take the model to the Texas Triangle (Houston, Austin and Dallas)—then possibly nationwide.

“The great thing about our program is that we train people above the level of possible threat of replacement by artificial intelligence,” Gefen says. “But what we are also doing, and this is due to requirements that we have received from clients that are already hiring our cyber professionals, is that we are now starting to deliver AI engineers and data scientists in other domains.”

“That means that we have added more programs to our cybersecurity program. So, we're also training people in data science and machine learning,” he continues.

All interested candidates for the program should be aware that a college degree is not required. NukuDo is genuinely interested in talented individuals, regardless of their background.

“The minimum that we are asking for is high school graduates,” Gefen says. “They don't need to have a college degree; they just need to have aptitude. And, of course, they need to be hungry to make this change.”

2 Houston universities declared among world’s best in 2026 rankings

Declaring the Best

Two Houston universities are in a class of their own, earning top spots on a new global ranking of the world's best universities.

Rice University and University of Houston are among the top 1,200 schools included in the QS World University Rankings 2026. Ten more schools across Texas make the list.

QS (Quacquarelli Symonds), a London-based provider of higher education data and analytics, compiles the prestigious list each year; the 2026 edition includes more than 1,500 universities from around the world. Factors used to rank the schools include academic reputation; employer reputation; faculty-student ratio; faculty research; and international research, students, and faculty.

In Texas, University of Texas at Austin lands at No. 1 in the state, No. 20 in the U.S., and No. 68 globally.

Houston's Rice University is close behind as Texas' No. 2 school. It ranks 29th in the U.S. and No. 119 in the world. Unlike UT, which fell two spots globally this year (from No. 66 to 68), Rice climbed up the charts, moving from 141st last year to No. 119.

University of Houston impresses as Texas' 4th highest-ranked school. It lands at No. 80 in the U.S. and No. 556 globally, also climbing about 100 spots up the chart.

Rice and UH are on a roll in regional, national, and international rankings this year.

Rice earned top-15 national rankings by both Niche.com and Forbes last fall. Rice claimed No. 1 and UH ranked No. 8 in Texas in U.S. News & World Report's 2025 rankings. Rice also topped WalletHub's 2025 list of the best colleges and universities in Texas for 2025.

More recently, in April, both UH and Rice made U.S. News' 2025 list of top grad schools.

In all, 192 U.S. universities made the 2026 QS World University Rankings — the most of any country. Topping the global list is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

“The results show that while U.S. higher education remains the global leader, its dominance is increasingly challenged by fast-rising emerging systems,” says the QS World University Rankings report. “A decade ago, 32 American universities [were] featured in the world’s top 100; today, that number has dropped to 26, and only 11 of these institutions have improved their position this year."

The 12 Texas universities that appear in the QS World University Rankings 2026 list are:

  • University of Texas at Austin, No. 20 in the U.S. and No. 68 in the world (down from No. 66 last year).
  • Rice University, No. 29 in the U.S. and No. 119 in the world (up from No. 141 last year).
  • Texas A&M University, No. 32 in the U.S. and No. 144 in the world (up from No. 154 last year).
  • University of Houston, No. 80 in the U.S. and No. 556 in the world (up from 651-660 last year).
  • University of Texas at Dallas, No. 85 in the U.S. and No. 597 in the world (down from 596 last year).
  • Texas Tech University, No. 104 in the U.S. and No. 731-740 in the world (unchanged from last year).
  • University of North Texas, No. 123 in the U.S. and No. 901-950 in the world (up from 1,001-1,200 last year)
  • Baylor University, tied for No. 136 in the U.S. and at No. 1,001-1,200 in the world (unchanged from last year).
  • Southern Methodist University, tied for No. 136 in the U.S. and at 1,001-1,200 in the world (unchanged from last year).
  • University of Texas Arlington, tied for No. 136 in the U.S. and at 1,001-1,200 in the world (unchanged from last year).
  • University of Texas at San Antonio, tied for No. 136 in the U.S. and at 1,001-1,200 in the world (unchanged from last year).
  • University of Texas at El Paso, No. 172 in the U.S. and at 1,201-1,400 in the world (down from 1,001-1,200 last year).
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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston students develop new device to prepare astronauts for outer space

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Rice University students from the George R. Brown School of Engineering and Computing designed a space exercise harness that is comfortable, responsive, and adaptable and has the potential to assist with complex and demanding spacewalks.

A group of students—Emily Yao, Nikhil Ashri, Jose Noriega, Ben Bridges and graduate student Jack Kalicak—mentored by assistant professor of mechanical engineering Vanessa Sanchez, modernized harnesses that astronauts use to perform rigorous exercises. The harnesses are particularly important in preparing astronauts for a reduced-gravity space environment, where human muscles and bones atrophy faster than they do on Earth. However, traditional versions of the harnesses had many limitations that included chafing and bruising.

The new harnesses include sensors for astronauts to customize their workouts by using real-time data and feedback. An additional two sensors measure astronauts’ comfort and exercise performance based on temperature and humidity changes during exercise and load distribution at common pressure points.

“Our student-led team addressed this issue by adding pneumatic padding that offers a customized fit, distributes pressure over a large surface area to reduce discomfort or injuries and also seamlessly adapts to load shifts — all of which together improved astronauts’ performance,” Sanchez said in a news release. “It was very fulfilling to watch these young engineers work together to find innovative and tangible solutions to real-world problems … This innovative adjustable exercise harness transforms how astronauts exercise in space and will significantly improve their health and safety during spaceflights.”

The project was developed in response to a challenge posted by the HumanWorks Lab and Life Science Labs at NASA and NASA Johnson Space Center for the 2025 Technology Collaboration Center’s (TCC) Wearables Workshop and University Challenge, where teams worked to solve problems for industry leaders.

Rice’s adaptive harness won the Best Challenge Response Award. It was funded by the National Science Foundation and Rice’s Office of Undergraduate Research and Inquiry.

“This challenge gave us the freedom to innovate and explore possibilities beyond the current harness technology,” Yao added in the release. “I’m especially proud of how our team worked together to build a working prototype that not only has real-world impact but also provides a foundation that NASA and space companies can build and iterate upon.”

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