Houston research: Can predictive tools help forecast the stock market?

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The stock market has always been hard, if not impossible, to forecast. Image via Getty Images

What do you think the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will do over the next year?

When Rice Business finance professor Kevin Crotty asks his MBA students this question, the answers are all over the map. Some students expect the overall return on the stock market to be 10 percent, while others predict a loss of 20 percent.

This guessing game is closer to real life than many people realize. Experienced investors, people who have watched the stock market ebb and flow for many years, know that making predictions is a risky business. “Many money managers are more confident choosing individual stocks than trying to time the market,” says finance professor Kevin Crotty.

For most of the past century, academics have applied their power of analysis to understanding and predicting the stock market. Recently, some finance researchers have taken a closer look at option prices—the price paid for the right to buy or sell a security (like a stock or bond) at a specified price in the future. Combining economic theory with high-frequency options price data, they argued that they could estimate the expected return on the market in real-time, which would represent a tremendous development for finance practitioners and academics alike.

Crotty teamed up with Kerry Back, a fellow Rice Business professor, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour, a finance Ph.D. student at the Jones Graduate School of Business, to evaluate whether the new predictors based on option prices really are a valuable forecasting tool. “Options are essentially a forward-looking contract, so it’s possible that they could be used to create a forward-looking measure of expected returns,” says Kazempour.

Economic theory suggests that the new predictors might systematically underestimate expected returns. The team set out to test if this may be the case, and if so, whether the predictors are useful as a forecasting tool. In their paper, “Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds,” the Rice Business researchers ran the predictors through a more rigorous set of statistical tests that provide more power to detect whether the predictors systematically underestimate expected returns. The statistical tests used in previous research on the topic were less stringent, leading to conclusions that the predictors do not underestimate expected returns.

In short, the new predictors didn’t pass the more stringent tests. The researchers found that forecasts built on stock options consistently underestimated market returns. Moreover, the predictors are enough of an underestimate that they are not very useful as forecasts of market returns.

The results were somewhat anticlimatic, the researchers admit. If the option-based predictors had panned out, it could have become an innovative new tool for thinking about market timing for asset managers as well as investment decision-making for corporate finance projects. “Trying to estimate expected market returns is closely related to whether corporations decide to invest in projects,” notes Crotty. “The expected market return is an input in estimating the cost of capital when evaluating projects, and I explain in my MBA courses that we don’t have very precise estimates for this input. During this research project, I kept thinking about how cool it would be if we really had a better estimate,” he says.

Their research doesn’t end here. Crotty and Back have already begun brainstorming ways to potentially improve the option-based forecasting tool so that it can become more accurate.

At best, though, using option prices as a forecasting tool will only be one ingredient out of many that investors use to make decisions. “This tool may inform money management, but it will never drive it,” says Back.

For now, at least, the Rice researchers believe that trying to predict the stock market is still a very risky game.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Rice Professors Kerry Backand Kevin Crotty.

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Houston falls in new ranking of world's best startup ecosystems

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Houston fell out of the top 50 in this year’s ranking of the cities with the world’s best startup ecosystems.

In the 2025 Global Startup Ecosystem Index, published by economic research platform StartupBlink, Houston lands at No. 52 among the world’s top cities for startup ecosystems. That’s down four places from its No. 48 showing in 2024.

In the U.S., Houston’s startup ecosystem ranks 18th, up one spot from 2024.

According to the StartupBlink index, Houston’s startup ecosystem notched an annual growth rate of 13.4 percent. StartupBlink’s sample database contains 899 Houston startups.

Regardless of Houston’s ecosystem ranking, the Greater Houston Partnership touts the city’s startup scene.

“Houston’s innovation ecosystem is a dynamic hub that nurtures startups across diverse industries,” says the partnership. “With a strategic location, robust infrastructure, and a supportive community, Houston offers unparalleled opportunities for entrepreneurial success.”

Elsewhere in Texas, Austin ranks 16th in the world (up from No. 17 last year) and Dallas ranks 27th (down from No. 25 last year). Nationally, Austin appears at No. 6 (up from No. 7 last year) and Dallas appears at No. 10 (unchanged from last year).

StartupBlink says that between 2021 and 2025, Austin, Paris, Singapore, Tokyo, Shenzhen and Seoul emerged as long-run winners in the global top 20. Austin recorded an annual ecosystem growth rate of 24.1 percent.

San Francisco topped this year’s global list, followed by New York City, London, Los Angeles, and Beijing.

“Successful startups and unicorns often emerge from the top startup ecosystems as these cities offer dozens of advantages, including access to investors, high-quality clients, potential co-founders and team members, reliable suppliers, and a vast knowledge base,” says StartupBlink.

Overall, StartupBlink analyzed 1,473 cities. The index judges cities based on data in three categories:

Quantity, measuring an ecosystem’s level of activity.
Quality, gauging an ecosystem’s impact and success.
Business environment, evaluating overall support of startup growth.

“The ecosystem in which your startup operates matters,” StartupBlink says. “If you find yourself in an underperforming ecosystem that lacks the necessary resources and support, you are faced with a choice: either relocate to an overperforming location or lead it.”

New report deems Houston's I-45 expansion a "freeway without a future"

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A national nonprofit organization advocating for the removal of freeways across the country has named the Interstate 45 expansion in Houston on its 2025 list of "freeways without futures."

The latest report from Congress for the New Urbanism (CNU) included nine U.S. freeways where the infrastructure is "nearing the end of its functional life." The report also highlights local efforts and campaigns offering an alternative solution that reconnects and prioritizes local communities while addressing environmental and ecological damage.

Currently in the initial stages of construction, the I-45 expansion project, dubbed the North Houston Highway Improvement Project (NHHIP), aims at reconstructing I-45N between downtown and the north Sam Houston Tollway, as well as segments of connecting freeways.

Promised improvement areas include I-45 from Beltway 8 to I-10 and I-45 through downtown along I-10 and US 59/I-69. Portions of I-10 and US 59/I-69 will be improved as well, per TxDOT. Most notably, the project will remove the Pierce Elevated portion in downtown Houston and reroute I-45 to run parallel to I-10 and Highway 59, resulting in the demolition of existing properties between the freeway and St Emmanuel St.

The CNU report states that the construction of I-45 in the 1950s and 1960s brought significant changes to the local communities around it. Highway construction led to the demolition of many homes and local businesses, thus displacing area residents and dividing their neighborhoods.

The report also mentioned significant environmental consequences, like air and noise pollution, that have plagued the areas surrounding the freeway.

"For decades, residents in areas like Near Northside, Fifth Ward, and Independence Heights have faced elevated levels of air pollution from vehicle emissions, contributing to higher rates of asthma and respiratory illnesses," the report said.

Additionally, the report claims that worsening stormwater runoff from the concrete infrastructure has also led to significant flooding issues due to a lack of natural drainage.

"Increased concrete and impermeable surfaces prevent natural drainage, leading to localized flooding, which threatens homes and public health — especially for those who lack resources for flood mitigation," the report said.

CNU claims further expansion of Houston's highway system could eventually lead to the loss of the city's bayous, while also diminishing the remaining flood-absorbing land. Other repercussions like air pollution and heat island effects may also worsen, the report argues, and these ramifications would most likely harm the predominantly Black and Hispanic neighborhoods near the freeway.

A grassroots campaign against Houston's highway expansion

CNU referenced a key alternative to Houston's highway expansion, Stop TxDOT I-45, which has garnered a small but vocal group of local activists who want to see the city re-envision its highway infrastructure.

The campaign demands that the North Houston Highway Improvement Project (NHHIP) stop expanding I-45 and instead seek "solutions that prioritize people, protect [the] environment, and build true resilience." Namely, it proposes the redirection of NHHIP funds toward "people-centered investments" to improve and transform public transit access, while also restoring green spaces and thus creating healthier neighborhoods throughout Houston.

Environmentally conscious Houstonians aren't the only fans of these measures: The report says Stop TxDOT I-45 may have also had an influence on late former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, although he signed a Memorandum of Understanding with TxDOT that allowed the project to proceed.

"During his time as Mayor of Houston, the late Congressman Sylvester Turner proposed Vision C — an alternative to NHHIP that embraced equitable public transit and environmental sustainability," the report said. "But TxDOT never took the proposal seriously, and today there is no political will to pursue it."

Other "freeways without futures":

The only other Texas highway included in CNU's 2025 report is I-35 in Austin, which has been included in every "Freeways without Futures" report as far back as 2019.

Other U.S. freeways mentioned in the report include:

NY State Routes 33 and 198 in Buffalo, New York
Interstate I-980 in Oakland, California
Interstate 175 in Saint Petersburg, Florida
IL 137/Amstutz Expressway/Bobby Thompson Expressway in Waukegan and North Chicago, Illinois
DuSable Lake Shore Drive (US 41) in Chicago, Illinois
US-101 in San Mateo County, California
US-35 in Dayton, Ohio

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston universities earn top marks for research and student opportunity

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The American Council on Education and the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching recently released its new Research Activity Designations, which named several Houston universities to its Very High Research Spending and Doctorate Production, or R1, tier.

The R1 status means that universities meet $50 million in total annual research spending and 70 research doctorates awarded annually. This year, 187 institutions were given the designation, according to the Carnegie Foundation.

The 2025 categorizations were made using an updated methodology to be "more reflective of the wide range of higher education institutions across America and how well they serve their students," according to a release. Until now, research activity was included in the foundations' Basic Classifications. This year was the first year the Research Activity Designations were published separately.

“These updates to the Carnegie Classifications are the first step to bring a decades-old system into the 21st century. We are expanding our recognition of the range of ways colleges and universities engage in research and development,” Timothy F.C. Knowles, president of the Carnegie Foundation, said in the release. “And we are taking the guesswork out of what it takes to be recognized as an R1 institution. Over time, this will be good for the sector, for scholarship, for policymakers and for students.”

Here are the Houston institutions to receive the R1 designation:

Baylor College of Medicine
Rice University
The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston
The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center
University of Houston

The foundation also released new Student Access and Earnings Classifications, which honor colleges that serve a student body representative of their local community and help achieve competitive post-graduation earnings.

UH was the only Houston college to earn the Opportunity College & University – Higher Access, Higher Earnings (OCU) designation, and was one of only 21 universities in the country to earn it in addition to the R1 status for research.

“Maintaining our new Opportunity College and University designation reflects our unwavering commitment to access and economic mobility for all students, while our R1 research status speaks to the strength of our faculty and the transformative scholarship happening on our campus,” UH president Renu Khator said in a news release.

Just 16 percent of U.S. colleges and universities received the OCU designation. The classification comes from publicly available data from the U.S. Department of Education’s College Scorecard, the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and the U.S. Census Bureau. The classification considers the percentage of Pell Grant recipients, the number of underrepresented students enrolled, the median undergraduate earnings eight years after enrollment and other factors.

“These recognitions help tell the full story of our institution’s impact,” Diane Z. Chase, senior vice president for academic affairs and provost at UH, added in the release. “UH is a powerhouse for ideas, innovation and opportunity. We are changing lives through discovery, access and economic mobility—not only for our students, but for the communities we serve.”

Comparatively, Rice earned a Lower Access, Higher Earnings designation. The other Houston universities were not classified in the Student Access and Earnings Classifications.

In 2024, Rice University was one of 25 U.S. colleges and universities to receive the first Carnegie Leadership for Public Purpose Classification. The classification highlights colleges that have committed to “campus-wide efforts to advance leadership in pursuit of public goods like justice, equity, diversity and liberty.” Read more here.

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