The stock market has always been hard, if not impossible, to forecast. Image via Getty Images

What do you think the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will do over the next year?

When Rice Business finance professor Kevin Crotty asks his MBA students this question, the answers are all over the map. Some students expect the overall return on the stock market to be 10 percent, while others predict a loss of 20 percent.

This guessing game is closer to real life than many people realize. Experienced investors, people who have watched the stock market ebb and flow for many years, know that making predictions is a risky business. “Many money managers are more confident choosing individual stocks than trying to time the market,” says finance professor Kevin Crotty.

For most of the past century, academics have applied their power of analysis to understanding and predicting the stock market. Recently, some finance researchers have taken a closer look at option prices—the price paid for the right to buy or sell a security (like a stock or bond) at a specified price in the future. Combining economic theory with high-frequency options price data, they argued that they could estimate the expected return on the market in real-time, which would represent a tremendous development for finance practitioners and academics alike.

Crotty teamed up with Kerry Back, a fellow Rice Business professor, and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour, a finance Ph.D. student at the Jones Graduate School of Business, to evaluate whether the new predictors based on option prices really are a valuable forecasting tool. “Options are essentially a forward-looking contract, so it’s possible that they could be used to create a forward-looking measure of expected returns,” says Kazempour.

Economic theory suggests that the new predictors might systematically underestimate expected returns. The team set out to test if this may be the case, and if so, whether the predictors are useful as a forecasting tool. In their paper, “Validity, Tightness, and Forecasting Power of Risk Premium Bounds,” the Rice Business researchers ran the predictors through a more rigorous set of statistical tests that provide more power to detect whether the predictors systematically underestimate expected returns. The statistical tests used in previous research on the topic were less stringent, leading to conclusions that the predictors do not underestimate expected returns.

In short, the new predictors didn’t pass the more stringent tests. The researchers found that forecasts built on stock options consistently underestimated market returns. Moreover, the predictors are enough of an underestimate that they are not very useful as forecasts of market returns.

The results were somewhat anticlimatic, the researchers admit. If the option-based predictors had panned out, it could have become an innovative new tool for thinking about market timing for asset managers as well as investment decision-making for corporate finance projects. “Trying to estimate expected market returns is closely related to whether corporations decide to invest in projects,” notes Crotty. “The expected market return is an input in estimating the cost of capital when evaluating projects, and I explain in my MBA courses that we don’t have very precise estimates for this input. During this research project, I kept thinking about how cool it would be if we really had a better estimate,” he says.

Their research doesn’t end here. Crotty and Back have already begun brainstorming ways to potentially improve the option-based forecasting tool so that it can become more accurate.

At best, though, using option prices as a forecasting tool will only be one ingredient out of many that investors use to make decisions. “This tool may inform money management, but it will never drive it,” says Back.

For now, at least, the Rice researchers believe that trying to predict the stock market is still a very risky game.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Rice Professors Kerry Back and Kevin Crotty.

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Houston health orgs lost $58M in canceled, stalled NIH grants, new report shows

research cuts

Seven institutions in the Houston area have lost nearly $60 million in grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) that were aimed at funding health research.

The Science & Community Impacts Mapping Project identified 37 cancelled or frozen NIH grants worth $58.7 million that were awarded to seven Houston-area institutions. The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston suffered the biggest loss — five grants totaling nearly $44.8 million.

The Harvard University T.H. Chan School of Public Health reported in May that over the previous several months across the U.S., the federal government had terminated roughly 2,100 NIH research grants worth around $9.5 billion.

In August, the U.S. Supreme Court derailed researchers’ efforts to reinstate almost $2 billion in research grants issued by NIH, according to Nature.com.

“Make no mistake: This was a decision critical to the future of the nation, and the Supreme Court made the wrong choice. History will look upon these mass National Institutes of Health (NIH) research grant terminations with shame,” the American Association of Medical Colleges said in a statement. “The Court has turned a blind eye to this grievous attack on science and medicine, and we call upon Congress to take action to restore the rule of law at NIH.”

Texas health researchers rely heavily on NIH grants and contracts. During the federal government’s 2024 budget year, NIH awarded $1.9 billion in grants and contracts that directly supported 30,553 jobs and more than $6.1 billion in economic activity in Texas, according to the United for Medical Research coalition.

Here’s a rundown of the cancelled and frozen NIH grants in the Houston area.

  • University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston: Five cancelled or frozen grants, totalling approximately $44.8 million in funding lost.
  • Baylor College of Medicine: 17 grants cancelled or frozen, totalling approximately $8 million in funding lost
  • University of Houston. Five cancelled or frozen grants, totalling approximately $3.7 million in funding lost
  • University of Texas Health Science Center Houston: Five grants cancelled or frozen, totaling approximately $1.1 million in funding lost.
  • University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center: Two grants cancelled or frozen, totalling $831,581 in funding
  • Rice University. Two grants cancelled or frozen, totaling $254,645 in funding lost
  • Prairie View A&M University: One grant cancelled or frozen, totalling $31,771 in funding lost

Magnolia milkshake shop blends up a sweet partnership with Comcast Business

Treat Takeover

Comcast Business (CB) powers businesses of every size with fast and reliable phone, mobile, internet, cybersecurity, and television services. Houston’s local CB team also stands behind entrepreneurs and small businesses, knowing they’re the heart of thriving communities: driving growth, sparking innovation, and creating jobs close to home.

Magnolia hometown favorite Chill Milkshake and Waffle Bar was the site of Comcast Business’ latest road trip to treat customers to a cool and refreshingly free treat, picking up the tab for several hours for nearly 200 customers.

Chill Milkshake and Waffle Bar, Magnolia Surprise! Your order is free.Photo courtesy of Comcast Business

“We aren’t just about products and services, we are about building partnerships in our community and playing a supporting role, it means the world to us,” says Heather Orrico, vice president of Comcast Business in Texas.

Chill Milkshakes and Waffle Bar, located at 6606 FM 1488 Rd., Suite 110 in Magnolia, opened in December 2020 and has been a Comcast Business customer for the last two years.

Who would’ve thought you’d need WiFi to serve milkshakes and waffles? Technology runs almost every part of the business.

“In a world where people rarely carry cash anymore, we have to be able to process payments electronically and promptly. Otherwise, the day stops. Nobody wants that,” says owner Jeanie Rosett. “We count on WiFi to efficiently complete transactions and guest payments, process online orders, and keep our music lively.”

It's no surprise that Chill’s array of flavors and dedication to making the perfect milkshake (along with waffles and sandwiches) have earned them the title of best milkshake in Texas by USA Today, followed by ranking sixth-best milkshake in the nation by Travel + Leisure.

Chill’s family environment creates a space where everybody can hang out, or the kids can come on their own and parents feel they are safe. “Good WiFi keeps them connected,” says store manager Laura Mabery. “We also have people who stop in with their laptop, have a hotdog and a shake while continuing to work. We live in a world that needs to be connected! You can do that at Chill-Magnolia.”

Comcast Business A sticker in the window lets everyone know.Photo courtesy of Comcast Business

While Mabery and Rosett appreciate the upgrade in customer service and reliability that was missing from their previous service provider, they were honored and pleasantly surprised to be selected for the recent Comcast Business “take over.”

“It's reassuring to know that our internet needs are taken care of, but that Comcast Business also supports us as a hometown commodity,” says Mabery. “And a free Chill milkshake...what's not to love about that?"

Houston robotics co. unveils new robot that can handle extreme temperatures

Hot New Robot

Houston- and Boston-based Square Robot Inc.'s newest tank inspection robot is commercially available and certified to operate at extreme temperatures.

The new robot, known as the SR-3HT, can operate from 14°F to 131°F, representing a broader temperature range than previous models in the company's portfolio. According to the company, its previous temperature range reached 32°F to 104°F.

The new robot has received the NEC/CEC Class I Division 2 (C1D2) certification from FM Approvals, allowing it to operate safely in hazardous locations and to perform on-stream inspections of aboveground storage tanks containing products stored at elevated temperatures.

“Our engineering team developed the SR-3HT in response to significant client demand in both the U.S. and international markets. We frequently encounter higher temperatures due to both elevated process temperatures and high ambient temperatures, especially in the hotter regions of the world, such as the Middle East," David Lamont, CEO of Square Robot, said in a news release. "The SR-3HT employs both active and passive cooling technology, greatly expanding our operating envelope. A great job done (again) by our engineers delivering world-leading technology in record time.”

The company's SR-3 submersible robot and Side Launcher received certifications earlier this year. They became commercially available in 2023, after completing initial milestone testing in partnership with ExxonMobil, according to Square Robot.

The company closed a $13 million series B round in December, which it said it would put toward international expansion in Europe and the Middle East.

Square Robot launched its Houston office in 2019. Its autonomous, submersible robots are used for storage tank inspections and eliminate the need for humans to enter dangerous and toxic environments.

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This article originally appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.