People tend to have stronger reactions to unexpected news, so news that meets the public’s expectations of a company can go unnoticed. Photo via Getty Images

According to Forbes, the volume of mergers and acquisitions in 2021 was the highest on record, and 2022 has already seen a number of major consolidation attempts. Microsoft’s acquisition of video game company Activision Blizzard was the biggest gaming industry deal in history, according to Reuters. JetBlue recently won the bid over Frontier Airlines to merge with Spirit Airlines. And, perhaps most notably, Elon Musk recently backed out of an attempt to acquire Twitter.

It can be hard to predict how markets will react to such high-profile deals (and, in Elon Musk and Twitter’s case, whether or not the deal will even pan out). But Rice Business Professor Haiyang Li and Professor Emeritus Robert Hoskisson, along with Jing Jin of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, have found that companies can take advantage of these deals to buffer the effects of other news.

The researchers looked at 7,575 mergers and acquisitions from 2001 to 2015, with a roughly half-and-half split between positive and negative stock market reactions. They found that when there’s a negative reaction to a deal, companies have two strategies for dealing with it. If it’s a small negative reaction, companies will release positive news announcements in an attempt to soften the blow. But when the reaction is really bad, companies actually tend to announce more negative news afterward. Specifically, companies released 18% less positive news and 52% more negative news after a bad market reaction.

This may seem counterintuitive, but there’s a method to the madness, and it all has to do with managing expectations. If people are lukewarm on a company due to a merger or acquisition, it’s possible to sway public opinion with unrelated good news. When the backlash is severe, though, a little bit of good PR won’t be enough to change people’s minds. In this case, companies release more bad news because it’s one of their best chances to do so without making waves in the future. If people already think poorly of a company due to a recent deal, more bad news isn’t great, but it doesn’t come as a surprise, either. Therefore, it’s easier to ignore.

It might make more sense to just keep quiet if the market reaction to a deal is bad, and this study found that most companies do. However, this only applies when releasing more news would make a mildly bad situation worse. If things are already bad enough that the company can’t recover with good news, it can still make the best out of a bad situation by offloading more bad news when the damage will be minimal. Companies are legally obligated to disclose business-related news or information with shareholders and with the public. If it’s bad news, they like to share it when the public is already upset about a deal, instead of releasing the negative news when there are no other distractions. In this case the additional negative news is likely to get more play in the media when disclosed by itself.

But what happens when people get excited about a merger or acquisition? In these cases, it also depends on how strong the sentiment is. If the public’s reaction is only minimally positive, companies may opt to release more good news in hopes of making the reaction stronger. When the market is already enthusiastic about the deal, though, companies won’t release more positive news. The researchers found that after an especially positive market reaction to a deal, companies indeed released 12% less positive news but 56% more negative news. Also, one could argue that the contrasting negative news makes the good news on the acquisition look even better. This may be important especially if the acquisition is a significant strategic move.

There are several reasons why a company wouldn’t continue to release positive news after a good press day and strong market reaction. First of all, they want to make sure that a rise in market price is attributed to the deal alone, and not any irrelevant news. A positive reaction to a deal also gives companies another opportunity to disclose bad news at a time when it will get less attention. If the bad news does get attention, the chances are better that stakeholders will go easy on them — a little bit of bad press is forgivable when the good news outshines it.

Companies may choose to release no news after a positive reaction to a merger or acquisition, the same way they might opt to stay quiet after backlash. They’re less likely to release positive news when stakeholders are already happy, preferring to save that news for the next time they need it, either to offset a negative reaction or strengthen a weak positive reaction.

Mergers and acquisitions can produce unpredictable market reactions, so it’s important for companies to be prepared for a variety of outcomes. In fact, Jin, Li and Hoskisson found that the steps taken by companies before deals were announced didn’t have much effect on the public’s reaction. They found that it’s more important for companies to make the best out of that reaction, whatever it turns out to be.

The researchers also found that, regardless of whether the market reaction was positive or negative, as long as the reaction was strong, companies could use the opportunity to hide smaller pieces of bad news in the shadow of a headline-making deal. Overall, the magnitude of the reaction mattered more than the type of reaction. People tend to have stronger reactions to unexpected news, though, so companies prefer to release negative news when market expectations are already low.

These findings are relevant beyond merger announcements, of course; they also point to strategies that could be useful in everyday communications. A key takeaway is that negative information is less upsetting when people already expect bad things — or when it comes after much bigger, and much better, news. Bad news is always hard to deliver, but this research gives us a few ways to soften the blow.

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom and was based on research from Jing Jin, Haiyang Li and Robert Hoskisson.

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Meet 6 of the fastest-growing scaleup companies in Houston right now

meet the finalists

From raising funding rounds to earning FDA acceptance, some of Houston's most innovative companies have reached major milestones this year.

The 2025 Houston Innovation Awards will recognize their progress by bringing back our Scaleup of the Year category for the second year. The award honors an innovative later-stage startup that's recently reached a significant milestone in company growth.

Six breakthrough businesses have been named finalists for the 2025 award. They range from climatetech startups to a biotech company developing new drugs for neurodegenerative diseases and more.

Read more about these businesses and their impressive growth below. Then join us at the Houston Innovation Awards on Nov. 13 at Greentown Labs, when the winner will be unveiled at our live awards ceremony.

Tickets are now on sale for this exclusive event celebrating all things Houston Innovation. Corporate 10-packs, featuring reserved seating and custom branding, and individual tickets are still available. Secure your seats today.

Coya Therapeutics

Clinical-stage biotechnology company Coya Therapeutics (NASDAQ: COYA) has developed COYA-302 that enhances anti-inflammatory T cell function and suppresses harmful immune activity. The drug candidate is being advanced for several neurodegenerative diseases—including ALS, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and frontotemporal dementia—and has demonstrated promising reductions in neuroinflammation in preclinical and early clinical studies, according to the company.

Coya, founded in 2021, received FDA acceptance for its investigational new drug application for COYA-30 this summer. It closed its IPO in January 2023 for more than $15 million and added $26 million in PIPE funding that same year. Last year, the company secured an additional $15 million in PIPE funding.

Fervo Energy

Houston-based Fervo Energy is working to provide 24/7 carbon-free energy through the development of cost-competitive geothermal power. The company is developing its flagship Cape Station geothermal power project in Utah, which is expected to generate 400 megawatts of clean energy for the grid. The first phase of the project will supply 100 megawatts of power beginning in 2026. The second phase is scheduled to come online by 2028.

The company raised $205.6 million in capital to help finance the project earlier this year and fully contracted the project's capacity with the addition of a major power purchase agreement from Shell. Founded in 2017 by CEO Tim Latimer and CTO Jack Norbeck, Fervo is now a unicorn, meaning its valuation as a private company has surpassed $1 billion. In March, Axios reported Fervo is targeting a $2 billion to $4 billion valuation in an IPO.

Koda Health

Houston-based Koda Health has developed an advance care planning platform (ACP) that allows users to document and share their care preferences, goals and advance directives for health systems. The web-based platform guides patients through values-based decisions with interactive tools and generates state-specific, legally compliant documents that integrate seamlessly with electronic health record systems. The company also added kidney action planning to its suite of services for patients with serious illnesses last year.

Koda Health was founded out of the TMC's Biodesign Fellowship in 2020 by CEO Tatiana Fofanova, chief medical officer Dr. Desh Mohan, and chief technology officer Katelin Cherry. The company raised a $7 million series A earlier this year, and also announced major partnerships and integrations with Epic, Guidehealth, Medical Home Network, Privia Health and others.

Mati Carbon

Houston climatetech company Mati Carbon removes carbon through its Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) program that works with agricultural farms in Africa and India. Mati says the farmers it partners with are some of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The nonprofit won the $50 million grand prize in the XPRIZE Carbon Removal competition, backed by Elon Musk’s charitable organization, The Musk Foundation, earlier this year.

Mati Carbon scaled operations in India, Zambia, and Tanzania this year and has advanced its proprietary measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) platform, known as matiC, enabling seamless field data capture, chain-of-custody and carbon accounting at scale. The company was founded in 2022 by co-directors Shantanu Agarwal and Rwitwika Bhattacharya.

Molecule

Houston-based Molecule Software has developed an energy trading risk management (ETRM) platform that allows companies trading power, oil and gas, biofuels, renewables and more stay ahead as the markets evolve.

The company closed a Series B round earlier this year for an undisclosed amount. Sameer Soleja, founder and CEO of Molecule, said at the time that the funding would allow the company to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets." The company was founded in 2012 by CEO Sameer Soleja and participated in the Surge Accelerator the same year.

Utility Global

Houston-based Utility Global has developed its proprietary eXERO technology that produces low-cost, clean hydrogen from water and industrial off-gases without requiring grid electricity.

First founded in 2018 by CEO Parker Meeks, the company participated in Greentown Labs and the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship programs. It raised a $55 million funding round earlier this year and launched commercial partnerships with ArcelorMittal Brazil and Hanwha Group in South Korea to deploy its hydrogen solutions at scale.

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The Houston Innovation Awards program is sponsored by Houston Community College, Houston Powder Coaters, FLIGHT by Yuengling, and more to be announced soon. For sponsorship opportunities, please contact sales@innovationmap.com.

Venus Aerospace picks up investment from Lockheed Martin Ventures

space funding

Venus Aerospace, a Houston-based startup specializing in next-generation rocket engine propulsion, has received funding from Lockheed Martin Ventures, the investment arm of aerospace and defense contractor Lockheed Martin, for an undisclosed amount. The product lineup at Lockheed Martin includes rockets.

The investment follows Venus’ successful high-thrust test flight of its rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) in May. Venus says it’s the only company in the world that makes a flight-proven, high-thrust RDRE with a “clear path to scaled production.”

Venus says the Lockheed Martin Ventures investment reflects the potential of Venus’ dual-use technology for defense and commercial uses.

“Venus has proven in flight the most efficient rocket engine technology in history,” Venus co-founder and CEO Sassie Duggleby, a board member of the Texas Space Commission, said in a news release. “With support from Lockheed Martin Ventures, we will advance our capabilities to deliver at scale and deploy the engine that will power the next 50 years of defense, space, and commercial high-speed aviation.”

Chris Moran, executive director and general manager of Lockheed Martin Ventures, said Lockheed Martin has been a longtime supporter of early-stage “transformational” technologies.

“Our investment in Venus Aerospace reflects a conviction that next-generation propulsion will define which nations lead in space and defense for decades to come,” Moran added in the release. “We are committed to helping Venus scale this technology and integrate it into critical systems.”

Since its founding in 2020, Venus has secured more than $106 million in funding. In addition to Lockheed Martin Ventures, investors include Airbus Ventures, America’s Frontier Fund, Trousdale Ventures, and Prime Movers Lab. Supporters of Venus include NASA, the Air Force Research Lab and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

8+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for November

where to be

Editor's note: Houston’s innovation calendar is packed this November, with opportunities to connect across climatetech, health care and entrepreneurship. From Greentown Labs’ flagship summit and veteran-led showcases to discussions on medical innovation and startup growth, here's what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional event listings.

Nov. 4 – Greentown Climatetech Summit

Greentown Labs' Climatetech Summit Houston will bring together philanthropists, executives and innovators in the energy transition space. Expect to hear from John Arnold, co-founder and co-chair of Arnold Ventures, and Greentown CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter, who will participate in the day-long event’s keynote fireside chat, along with remarks from Houston Mayor John Whitmire, a course led by TEX-E Executive Director Sandy Guitar and more. Ten Greentown Labs startups will present pitches, and attendees will also be able to meet founders and Greentown members during the afternoon startup showcase.

This event is Tuesday, Nov. 4, from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m. at Greentown Labs. A networking reception follows from 5-7:30 p.m. at Axelrad Houston. Learn more here.

Nov. 11 – Veterans & Visionaries

Houston Veteran Network will celebrate the entrepreneurial spirit of veterans at its Veterans & Visionaries event. Veteran business owners will have the opportunity to showcase their businesses, connect with investors and participate in speed networking.

This event is Tuesday, Nov. 11, from 2-7 p.m. at the Ion. Find more information here.

Nov. 12 – Energy Drone and Robotics Forum

The Energy Drone + Robotics Coalition will offer a chance for industry leaders, operators and engineers to connect. Attendees will explore real-world uses, hear lessons from successful deployments, and gain practical insights and tools for scaling through various workshops, keynote addresses, Q&As and more.

This event is Wednesday, Nov. 12, from 8 a.m.-5:30 p.m. at the Ion. A Bots & Brews / Industrial AI Connect Reception will be held at Second Daught from 5:30-7:30 p.m. Find more information here.

Nov. 12 – TMC Envision 2025: Showcasing Healthcare Innovation

Celebrate 10 years of TMC Innovation at Envision, which shines a light on how TMC’s health tech companies are shaping the future. The event will feature talks from TMC’s Devin Dunn, Jason Sakamoto and Tom Luby that will focus on hospital innovation, health care policies, Texas-specific funding and regulatory dynamics and more.

This event is Wednesday, Nov. 12, from 3:30-6:30 p.m. at TMC Innovation Factory. Find more information here.

Nov. 13 — 2025 Houston Innovation Awards

Join InnovationMap at Greentown Labs on Nov. 13 for the fifth annual Houston Innovation Awards. Our annual celebration of all things Houston innovation offers an exclusive opportunity to network with leaders in the innovation ecosystem and culminates in the awards ceremony, where this year's winners across 10 prestigious categories will be unveiled. Individual tickets and corporate 10-packs with reserved seating are still available.

This event is Thursday, Nov. 13 at 7 p.m. at Greentown Labs. Get your tickets here.

Nov. 13 – Houston Methodist Leadership Speaker series

Head to the Houston Methodist Tech Hub at Ion to hear the latest installment of the Houston Methodist Leadership Speaker Series. The month’s event will feature Dr. Shlomit Schaal, executive vice president and chief physician executive at Houston Methodist. She is also the president and CEO of the Houston Methodist Physician Organization. Schaal will focus on physician group innovation.

This event is Thursday, Nov. 13, from 4:45-6 p.m. at the Ion. Find more information here.

Nov. 18 – Rice Customer-based Strategy Symposium

Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business will present this recurring forum for exchanging innovative ideas on customer-centered strategy planning and execution. The symposium features peer-reviewed research from leading academics with industry trends and insights from executives. Hear from Jones School Dean Peter Rodriguez, Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez, Laura Lopez, SVP of marketing, communications and public relations at Houston Methodist; Farid Virani, CEO of Prime Communications; and several Rice MBA graduates and executives.

This event is Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025, from 7:30 a.m.-3:00 p.m. at the Ion. Learn more here.

Nov. 20 – Houston Startup Speedrun

Wade Pinder, founder of Product Houston, will host the Houston Startup Speedrun. This intensive and fast-paced program is designed to provide early-stage founders and aspiring entrepreneurs with a comprehensive understanding of the “Startup Founder's Journey” and the Houston startup ecosystem. The event is broken up into 10 consecutive 50-minute sessions, including topics such as “Creating a Compelling Business Plan,” “Operations and Scaling” and others.

This event is Thursday, Nov. 20, from 9 a.m.-7 p.m. at the Ion. Find more information here.

Nov. 20 – State of the Texas Medical Center

The Greater Houston Partnership will present the State of the Texas Medical Center. Hear from William F. McKeon, president and CEO of TMC, and GHP president and CEO Steve Kean as they discuss “the tremendous progress happening in health care delivery and life sciences in the world’s largest medical center.”

This event is Thursday, Nov. 20, from 4-6:30 p.m. at Helix Park. Find more information here.