Forecasting retail sales just got smarter, thanks to Google searches

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Search trends predict future retail revenue up to three quarters in advance. Photo via Pexels

Imagine being able to predict the future of retail sales — not with months-old economic reports, but with real-time digital breadcrumbs left behind by consumers. Thanks to new research from K. Ramesh (Rice Business) and Gary Lind (University of Pittsburgh), that future is already here.

Key findings

  • Search trends predict future retail revenue — up to three quarters ahead.
  • Markets don’t fully price in search-based insights, especially before earnings announcements.
  • Trading strategies using search data outperform traditional asset-pricing models by 2–3%.
  • Analysts often underuse this data, resulting in predictable forecast errors.
  • At the macro level, search trends closely track — and often lead — official retail sales and GDP.

Their study shows that Google search trends are powerful predictors of consumer demand, capable of forecasting U.S. retail sales up to three quarters in advance. The implications span industries and audiences — from Wall Street traders to Main Street retailers, and from data-driven CFOs to curious business students.

A smarter, faster crystal ball for retail demand

Retail sales drive nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), making them one of the most important indicators of economic health. Yet traditional forecasting relies heavily on backward-looking data and broad economic indicators. Ramesh and Lind’s work offers a leap forward: search data from Google Trends — publicly available and easy to use — can offer a faster, more precise signal of where sales are headed.

“If you want to understand consumer demand,” says Ramesh, the Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Accounting at Rice Business, “look at what people are searching for — not just what companies report after the fact. These digital footprints can tell us where revenue is going, often before the market catches up.”

This low-cost approach stands in stark contrast to expensive alternatives, such as satellite images of parking lots, in-store foot traffic from mobile data, or retail scanner feeds — tools often reserved for hedge funds and large institutional investors. Google Trends offers a scalable, accessible option for anyone seeking insight into consumer behavior.

Why this matters for investors and analysts

The researchers analyzed search patterns for nearly 200 publicly traded U.S. retail companies between 2004 and 2019. They found that firms with rising search volumes tend to report higher revenues — often well before analysts or investors react.

In fact, investment strategies built around these trends earned 2–3% higher returns than traditional models would predict. And most of these gains were concentrated around earnings announcements — a sign that markets were slow to recognize what search data had already revealed.

The advantage is even more striking for companies that fly under Wall Street’s radar. For firms with limited analyst coverage, the predictive power of search data on stock performance was more than 80% stronger.

A new tool for analysts — if they’ll use it

Despite the clear signal in the data, the study finds that analysts routinely fail to incorporate search-based insights into their forecasts. That gap translates into missed revenue predictions and market inefficiencies — which sophisticated investors can exploit.

“The search data are out there,” says Lind, a Rice Business Ph.D. ’19 graduate now on faculty at Pitt Business. “They’re public, powerful, and free. Analysts who ignore them are missing an opportunity.”

The impact of this research extends well beyond equity markets. By aggregating Google search data across the retail sector, the authors found strong alignment with U.S. Census retail sales figures and GDP trends. In other words, these digital signals reflect not just firm-level interest, but macroeconomic momentum.

A data wake-up call

This makes search trends a potentially valuable early-warning system for policymakers, central banks, and anyone responsible for interpreting the economic landscape. During volatile or uncertain periods, such tools could offer precious foresight into shifting consumer behavior.

In a digital era where consumers research before they shop — whether online or in-store — it’s no surprise that their Google queries leave valuable clues. What’s surprising is how often businesses, investors, and even economists still overlook them, Ramesh says. “Search data is a goldmine. And it's just sitting there, waiting to be used.”

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom.

Lind and Ramesh, “Using Internet Search Data to Predict Aggregate Retail Sales and Enhance Firm-Level Revenue Expectations,” Contemporary Accounting Research (April 2025): 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.13043.

Houston's top Google searches include toilet paper, freezing milk, and bottled water. . Pexels

Here's what Houstonians asked the internet amid coronavirus outbreak

search me

No doubt, Houstonians and other Texans are tremendously curious about toilet paper these days. If you've seen any news coverage or been to a grocery store lately, you know how coveted a roll of toilet paper is.

But you might be surprised by which other things we're searching for online during the coronavirus pandemic. One of the more eye-opening queries? "Freeze milk."

A study published March 20 by self-storage marketplace StorageCafé tracked about 50 of the most popular Google searches for items or queries pertaining to three coronavirus-related categories: food and beverages, cleaning, and health.

Google Trends measures interest about a certain term on a scale from zero to 100 points. Zero means that few people are searching for that particular term, while 100 signifies peak interest.

In the Houston area, according to StorageCafé, the peak-interest terms as of March 15 focused on toilet paper and "freeze milk" as well as:

  • Bottled water
  • Vitamin C
  • Thermometers
  • Diapers

All of those scored 100 on the Google Trends scale, StorageCafé says.

Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio also registered scores of 100 for searches regarding toilet paper, freezing milk, vitamin C, and diapers.

DFW and Austin shared the highest level of curiosity about thermometers. Meanwhile, residents of the Austin and San Antonio areas were clamoring for information related to "food supply." People in the San Antonio area also were furiously searching for information about canned food and hand sanitizer.

Getting back to that milk query: Yes, you can freeze most types of milk, and the nutritional benefits will remain.

Milk expands when it's frozen, so leave room in the storage container to prevent it from bursting, the Dairy Council of California advises. Just make sure the milk hasn't passed its sell-by date.

"After you have frozen your milk, it can be thawed in the refrigerator or in cold water and is safe for consumption," the council says. "However, be aware that the flavor and texture of the milk may be affected."

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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Houston space companies win NASA funding to build Mars exploration robots

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Two Houston-area spacetech companies have landed a portion of a $17 million award from NASA to develop robots for exploring the surface of Mars, the agency announced this month.

Houston-based Inuitive Machines and Webster, Texas-based MEI Technologies, which does business as Aegis Aerospace, were among the seven companies selected to receive the funding from NASA's Science Transport and Robotic Innovation for Deployment and Exploration (STRIDE) initiative.

According to the release from NASA, the companies are tasked with creating "innovative mobility systems" that would allow future Mars missions to access more challenging terrain and difficult-to-reach regions of the planet, and to travel farther distances. NASA estimated that the work will begin this fall.

NASA solicited proposals for participants in the STRIDE initiative in January. The seven named companies are the first selected to participate in the program.

The additional five companies to receive STRIDE funding include:

"STRIDE demonstrates NASA’s commitment to strong public-private partnerships, allowing the agency to explore new approaches for Mars surface exploration while identifying key capability gaps and development needs for commercial systems that could operate and traverse realistic Martian environments," NASA shared in the announcement.

Last month, Intuitive Machines was awarded $148.3 million to deliver its Nova-C lander to the moon. The funding was part of $600 million the space agency awarded to three companies as part of its Moon Base Program and was Intuitive Machines' sixth task order under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Astrobotic was also one of the companies to land funding for the Moon Base program, as well as Austin-based Firefly Aerospace.

Around the same time, Firefly Aerospace was awarded a $13 million subcontract from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to develop technology for NASA’s SkyFall mission to Mars. The mission aims to deploy three Mars helicopters to "perform science and demonstrate airborne subsurface mapping and resource prospecting on the planet." Read more here.

SpaceX launches Starship test flight with most advanced Starlinks to date

Out in Space

SpaceX’s mammoth Starship rocket blasted off Friday, July 24, on another test flight stretching halfway around the world, this time releasing 20 of the most advanced Starlinks.

Towering 407 feet, Starship soared from the company’s base at the southern tip of Texas. NASA monitored the space-skimming flight, a critical step toward using the Starship as a lunar lander for moon crews.

The hourlong journey ended with a splashdown so soft that the spacecraft remained afloat in the Indian Ocean as the SpaceX webcast drew to a close, drawing cheers from employees back at the launch site.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX had replaced six of the 33 engines on the first-stage booster after they failed to ignite earlier in July, resulting in a last-second launch abort. The previous Starship flight in May also experienced engine trouble, which prevented the booster from making a controlled return.

This time, all of the engines fired at liftoff, but not enough of them lit back up for the booster's return, causing it to descend too fast and slam into the Gulf of Mexico. The spacecraft continued soaring eastward, popping out the Starlinks one by one 124 miles up before reentering.

It was the 13th flight of the world’s biggest and most powerful rocket, and the second this year of the new version dubbed V3. Like the previous demo, neither the booster nor spacecraft was meant to be saved, instead plunging into the sea.

The stainless steel, retro-looking spacecraft hovered upright over the Indian Ocean before lowering into the water, more than 10,000 miles from where the flight began.

It was the best reentry yet, according to SpaceX, with the intact booster floating amid just a few flames. Previous flights ended with the spacecraft engulfed in flames and exploding at splashdown — or rupturing in midair.

“We're really pumped about this,” said SpaceX engineer Kate Tice, calling it “lucky flight 13.”

The Starlinks accomplished all their jobs before reentering over the Indian Ocean.

After being ejected from the Starship’s Pez-like dispenser, the Starlinks managed to communicate via lasers with older Starlink models already in orbit. With more than 10,000 Starlinks currently providing internet, SpaceX boasts the world’s largest satellite constellation.

Six of the newly launched Starlinks carried cameras that photographed Starship’s heat shield at flight's end, beaming back amazingly crisp shots even as the spacecraft bobbed in the ocean. The heat shield was also equipped with sensors to measure the extreme pressure placed on the spacecraft during launch. Most of the heat shield’s thermal tiles were black, but some were deliberately painted white to simulate missing tiles, part of an experiment to test the shield’s robustness.

"We got all the heat shield data we needed and then some!" Musk said on X.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman offered congratulations. “Excited for what will be learned from this mission,” Isaacman noted on X.

SpaceX wants to make sure Starship’s heat shield can withstand the heat of entry before trying to return it to the Starbase launch pad near the Texas-Mexico border. The company already has used a pair of giant mechanical arms at the pad to capture a Starship booster. The company plans to do the same with the actual spacecraft, which is designed to be totally reusable.

NASA needs Starship to wrap up testing and reach orbit soon so the Artemis III astronauts — three Americans and one Italian — can practice docking their capsule with it next year.

Starship is also the vehicle with which Musk intends to build a city on Mars. He's already booking tourist trips to Mars, as well as the moon.

The latest test flight was delayed first by the July 16 launch abort, then again July 23 by thick clouds from Tropical Storm Bertha.

University of Houston debuts UH Health, expanding collaborative health care and research efforts

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The University of Houston has announced its cross-disciplinary academic venture, UH Health.

It will align UH’s efforts in education, research and clinical partnerships to create new opportunities to advance research and innovation, community impact, and education, according to a news release.

“From opening the state’s first college of optometry to developing groundbreaking vaccines, improving the health of all Texans has been a UH priority for decades,” UH President Renu Khator said in the release. “Now, with the launch of UH Health, we are bringing together the full strength of our health enterprise to expand our reach, advance research and transform the future of health for our communities.”

UH is adopting a fully collaborative model, with health professionals from various concentrations to help better understand overall patient care, which includes factors like clinical, behavioral and social factors that can influence health outcomes.

UH Health will also have partnerships with HCA Healthcare, Memorial Hermann Hospital, Baylor College of Medicine, MD Anderson Cancer Center and other Texas Medical Center facilities. In addition, UH Health will work with DHR Health in the Rio Grande Valley to create new opportunities for health care education, workforce development and research in one of Texas' medically underserved regions.

As part of UH Health, UH Health Family Care Center will provide integrated primary care and mental health services to the University and its surrounding communities at affordable prices to serve the Third Ward, East End and South Houston. The Household-Centered Care program will give students opportunities to work directly with community caregivers through patient home visits, while the 3rd Ward Place of Wellness offers health screenings, preventive services, education and other resources designed to support long-term health and well-being, according to UH. The College of Optometry will continue to see children and families via outreach programs and clinics across the community.

UH Health also aims to address shortages in health care professionals, providing a pipeline from the university to the workforce. According to the Texas Hospital Association, 64 percent of hospitals in the state are operating with reduced services and fewer beds due to staff shortages.

“Preparing the next generation of health care leaders is one of the most important investments we can make in the future of our state,” Jonathan McCullers, vice president for health affairs at UH and dean of the Tilman J. Fertitta Family College of Medicine at UH, added in the release. “UH Health is ensuring our graduates are equipped to work effectively in today’s complex healthcare environment.”

Additionally, UH shared it is investing $77 million into a 55,000-square-foot medical research facility aimed at boosting interdisciplinary research and scientific discovery.

“Healthcare is no longer delivered in isolation, and complex health challenges require coordinated solutions,” McCullers added. “UH Health allows us to work across disciplines to tackle health challenges, advance research and improve outcomes for patients and our community.”

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