Texas solar power poised to surpass coal for the first time in 2026

Powering Texas

An EIA forecast indicates that annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal. Photo courtesy of Freedom Solar

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

---

This article first appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

A new, data-intensive technique can create a better profile of a firm and its profit forecast. Photo via Pexels

Focusing on data can enhance business forecasting, Houston researcher finds

Houston voices

Earnings summaries are the corporate version of a Magic 8 Ball, something used to forecast future performance and profit. But Rice Business professor Brian Rountree has found that magic has its limits, and that by delving into a few additional areas of interest, investors can get a more accurate prediction of a company's future earnings than current techniques allow.

Plenty of studies analyze how to use performance summaries to calculate a firm's potential and future profits. Building on the abundant literature around this approach, Rountree, working with colleagues Andrew B. Jackson of the UNSW Australia Business School and Marlene Plumlee of the University of Utah, devised a new, additional technique for forecasting profits. By dissecting an assortment of operating details, the researchers discovered, it's possible to create a more precise forecast of a company's financial future.

Rather than replacing prior work on the subject, Rountree's team delved deeper into the significance of details within existing data. Their focus: whether including a firm's market, its overall industry and any unique activity specific to the firm makes for a more reliable profit forecast. Their conclusion: Firms can indeed improve their predictions if they separate returns on net operating assets (RNOA) into separate components and use those figures in their projections.

Normally, firms use market and industry related data to create future profit predictions. For example, a major oil company might use data on market conditions and the overall state of the oil industry to build its profits prediction. The resulting financial literature might be peppered with statements such as, "Like the rest of big oil…" or "The overall market for oil remains soft."

While this type of data is typically used to make projections, Rountree and his colleagues used the market and industry information more formally by creating the equivalent of stock return betas — a statistical measure of risk — for corporate earnings. In addition, they allowed for adding firm-specific information to market and industry information to help forecast earnings.

To conduct their study, Rountree's team used Compustat quarterly data to calculate firm, industry and market RNOAs from 1976 to 2014. Next, they broke these figures down and separated the results into different categories.

Their resulting formula differs from the conventional approach because it doesn't rely on one average set of market and industry-related data for each firm. Instead, it assumes varying factors for each company. The devil is in these details: Calculating specific market, industry and firm-idiosyncratic components improves the chances of forecasting profits correctly.

Correctly breaking down and separating profitability details to plug into the new formula is no small task. Separating company data into just three components requires up to 20 quarters of figures about prior profitability.

Once the information is processed, a researcher must then be vigilant for "noise" — incidental, irrelevant data that can lead to errors. Finally, Rountree warns, the breakdown process may not work as well for forecasting bankruptcy as it does for profits.

Used correctly, however, the technique is a practical new tool. By breaking down profitability into market, industry and firm-specific idiosyncrasies, researchers can improve forecasts strikingly compared to conventional calculations of total RNOAs.

The most accurate profit forecasts in other words, demand more than just a figurative shake of an industry Magic 8 Ball. To find the most reliable information about future earnings, a company instead has to flawlessly juggle years' worth of specific details about their particular firm. But the reward of planning based on a correct forecast can pay for itself.

------

This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom. It's based on research by Brian Rountree, an associate professor of accounting at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

What to expect from the inaugural TiECon Texas event this week

where to be

Innovators and entrepreneurs will gather in Houston this week to show off their latest advancements in automation during the first-ever TiECon Texas conference at the Ion District.

“Automation is not simply changing how we work. It is redefining how value is created across every industry,” Somesh Singh, president of TiE Houston, said in a release. “Texas has the talent, the infrastructure, and the entrepreneurial spirit to lead this transformation. TiEcon Texas 2026 is where the people building that future will come together to shape it."

The Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE) started in Silicon Valley in 1994 as a two-day seminar, but has grown into a worldwide network of events celebrating technological advancement. TiECon in Houston is a merger of the TiE networks across Texas for one large-scale event taking place at the Ion on Wednesday, October 28, and Thursday, October 29. Tickets are available here.

The event includes a partnership with Hatch Pitch, a founder-first startup showcase that has raised over $20 billion in funding for new companies in the tech industry. Participants will come from industries like space exploration, healthcare, energy, and the AI sector to present their ideas in front of an investor network for possible development.

“Over 80 percent of the teams we have coached have gone on to receive funding,” Greg Wright, founder of Hatch Pitch, added in a release.

In addition, there will be forums and talks on a variety of automation subjects, everything from robotic surgery to automation in government. Educators from Baylor College of Medicine, UTHealth Houston, and the University of Houston plan to discuss the raising of children in a world with extensive artificial intelligence integrated into so many areas. Steven Kean, President and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, will give the keynote speech on the Bayou City’s place in these emerging technological spheres.

Singh highlighted how the large-scale disruptions in the technological status quo by the rise of AI could be a sign of potential growth and innovation. The entrepreneurs presenting at TiECon may be the ones to harness the sometimes unsteady AI industry for good causes.

“History shows that periods of technological disruption create extraordinary opportunities for those prepared to act,” he said. “TiEcon Texas is designed to help founders, investors, and enterprises understand where the automation economy is headed and how to participate in building it."

Here are the 10 startups pitching during the TiE Hatch Pitch competition:

Houston startup makes Time's list of the best inventions of 2026

Innovation Station

One of the year's most buzzworthy innovations comes from a Houston-based leader in the energy transition. Utility Global's H2Gen recently made Time magazine’s list of the 300 best inventions of 2026.

The H2Gen is an innovative system that produces low-cost clean hydrogen from water and industrial off-gases. The company says the process doesn’t require electricity, a notable claim since hydrogen production typically consumes a lot of power.

"Using a tubular electrochemical cell containing a proprietary electrolyte and water, the company can turn industrial off-gases into hydrogen at scale—no extra electricity required," writes Time. "Bonus: the process also pulls out carbon dioxide as a separate stream, where it can be captured and kept out of the atmosphere.

CEO Parker Meeks tells Time, it's “a practical pathway to decarbonize existing industrial assets."

The startup is on a roll. It has raised $100 million so far in an ongoing Series D round to offer its decarbonization technology at industrial scale around the world.

H2Gen is joined by 10 other inventions with Texas connections onTime's list, as well as one "special mention."

In North Texas, they are:

Samsung
Plano-based Samsung Electronics America pulled off a hat trick this year, with three products making Time’s list. First up is the Galaxy S26 Ultra smartphone. It packs a more powerful camera, Galaxy AI features, and pro-level content creation tools. But Time singled out its new built-in privacy display as the phone’s “biggest selling point.”

Samsung’s Bespoke AI Family Hub refrigerator also got smarter. When AI first came to the Family Hub in 2024, it could recognize some fresh foods, but you still had to log packaged items by hand, Time noted. Now, with Google Gemini built in, the fridge can identify more than 2,000 packaged foods, read handwritten labels, and warn you when food is about to expire. It then uses what’s inside to build grocery lists and suggest recipes.

And for gamers, there’s the Odyssey G8 monitor. Its 6K resolution leapfrogs the 4K standard, delivering what Samsung calls “exceptional visual clarity and detail” on a screen big enough for gaming and multitasking.

OxeFit
Plano-based OxeFit’s XS1 Peak is about the size of a treadmill but works like an entire gym. It can be set up for strength training, simulated skiing or kayaking, Pilates, or rowing. What makes it stand out is a built-in virtual spotter. According to Time, the machine “uses AI, computer vision and sensors to correct the user’s form, change resistance in the middle of a rep and reduce the weight when the user is struggling, much like a human spotter.”

EssilorLuxottica
EssilorLuxottica, the French eyewear giant whose U.S. headquarters is in Farmers Branch, makes Essilor Stellest lenses. The lenses correct nearsightedness while also slowing the eye growth that makes it worse over time. Stellest is the first and only eyeglass lens authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to control myopia, Time said. The lenses look like regular glasses but contain 1,021 tiny lenslets. In a U.S. trial of kids ages 6-12, myopia progression slowed by an average of 71 percent over two years compared with standard lenses.

Helpany
Helpany, a startup based in Phoenix that manufactures its devices in DFW, makes Paul, a ceiling-mounted gadget that uses radar and AI to spot subtle changes in how residents move and flag those at higher risk of falling. Helpany says the technology can cut falls by as much as 72 percent.

Aurora Innovation
Aurora, based in Pittsburgh with a corporate and operations hub in Coppell, rolled out its second-generation Driver 2 system in July. By September, Driver 2 trucks had logged more than 500,000 driverless miles without a single at-fault crash, Time reported, and the company expects 200 of them on the road by the end of 2026.

Colossal Biosciences
Dallas-based Colossal Biosciences built an artificial egg by placing an ultra-thin, transparent silicone membrane inside a rigid 3D-printed cup, letting scientists watch the embryo develop. Twenty-six chickens have already been hatched.

In Austin, they are:
Cedar Park-based Hyliion landed on Time’s list with its Karno Power Module, a modular generator designed to produce power wherever it’s needed. The Karno represents a big pivot for the company. Hyliion got its start building electrified powertrains for 18-wheelers before shifting into power generation after acquiring the Karno generator technology from GE Aerospace. Founded in Pittsburgh in 2015, the company relocated to Cedar Park in 2018.

The other Austin-associated honoree is Moment Energy. As more electric vehicles hit the road, a growing number of their batteries are nearing retirement, while demand for power keeps climbing. Moment Energy found a way to tackle both problems at once. The company’s Megafactory 1, which opened in Vancouver, Canada, in June, turns old EV batteries into modular energy storage systems for hospitals, factories, data centers, and other big power users. “Our goal is to make sure these batteries don’t end up in landfills,” founder Edward Chiang told Time.

In the “Special Mentions” category, Austin-based Renzoe Box gained notice for its refillable custom makeup palette for on-the-go people. Licensed architect René Graham designed the box. She graduated from Houston's Rice University, and was born and raised in Dallas.

---

A version of this article first appeared on CultureMap.com.

4 Houston health tech startups advancing medical innovation

meet the finalists

Houston has been driving medical innovation for decades. And thanks to leading hospitals, cutting-edge research and breakthrough technologies, the region’s healthcare ecosystem continues to improve how patients are diagnosed, treated and cared for.

The Health Tech Business category in our 2025 Houston Innovation Awards will honor an innovative startup within the health and medical technology sectors.

Four forward-thinking businesses have been named finalists for the 2026 award. This year's finalists, selected by our esteemed panel of judges, range from a startup developing miniaturized medical technologies for space to a company using AI to help develop cancer treatment plans.

Read more about these businesses, their innovative founders, and how they're shaping the future of health care below.. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Bairitone Health

Bairitone Health is bringing anatomy imaging for sleep apnea to the home environment. The company's platform maps users' anatomy during natural sleep using a facial patch to determine the root cause of airway obstruction. It then offers effective therapies for each patient.

The company was founded in 2022 in the Texas Medical Center's Biodesign program by CEO Meagan Pitcher, CTO Onur Kilic and chief medical officer Britt Cross. It was a member of Activate Houston's inaugural cohort and has participated in numerous accelerators and incubators. The company raised an oversubscribed seed round for $2.4 million earlier this year and received Breakthrough Device Designation from the Food and Drug Administration in April.

InformAI Inc.

InformAI Inc. develops fit-to-purpose AI solutions for the clinical setting. Its RadOncAI product recently received FDA 510(k) clearance. The product uses AI to create a first-pass radiation therapy dose plan for complex head and neck cancers in an effort to eliminate bottlenecks in radiation planning and ultimately cancer treatment. The company has also developed AI products for sinus disease detection and 3D organ reconstruction.

CEO Jim Havelka founded the company in 2017. It is participating in the Mayo Clinic Accelerate Platform. It has raised about $4 million in seed funding and has received numerous non-dilutive grants from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health and the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas. The company shared in its application that it plans to launch a Series A fundraising round and submit an FDA 510K application for its organ reconstruction product, Voluquant, by the end of 2026.

Prana Surgical

Prana Surgical is developing a minimally invasive surgical platform for small, hard-to-reach lung nodules that may be cancerous. The company's Prana System cleared U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval earlier this year.

Prana Surgical was originally founded as Prana Thoracic in 2022. It has participated in numerous accelerators, including the Texas Medical Center Innovation Accelerator in 2023 and the IGNITE Health accelerator in 2022. It raised $6 million in Series A funding rounds in 2023 and 2024 , with a Series B currently ongoing. The company said in its application that it is currently moving into the next stage of clinical validation and revenue generation in the U.S., in addition to preparing its manufacturing and commercial infrastructure for broader use.

Skybound MedTech

Skybound MedTech develops technologies that aim to address the health risks of long-duration spaceflight. Its compact, miniaturized medical technologies can deliver complex therapies without a physician.

CEO Matthew Kuhn, who previously founded Taurus Vascular, founded Skybound last year. The company emerged from stealth in January after raising a $1.25 million Series A round. It plans to advance its lead dual-use platform into critical preclinical validation in November, the company shared in its application. It is currently raising a $25 million Series A round and is pursuing federal research partnerships with DARPA and ARPA-H.

View All Listings