An EIA forecast indicates that annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal. Photo courtesy of Freedom Solar

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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This article first appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

A new, data-intensive technique can create a better profile of a firm and its profit forecast. Photo via Pexels

Focusing on data can enhance business forecasting, Houston researcher finds

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Earnings summaries are the corporate version of a Magic 8 Ball, something used to forecast future performance and profit. But Rice Business professor Brian Rountree has found that magic has its limits, and that by delving into a few additional areas of interest, investors can get a more accurate prediction of a company's future earnings than current techniques allow.

Plenty of studies analyze how to use performance summaries to calculate a firm's potential and future profits. Building on the abundant literature around this approach, Rountree, working with colleagues Andrew B. Jackson of the UNSW Australia Business School and Marlene Plumlee of the University of Utah, devised a new, additional technique for forecasting profits. By dissecting an assortment of operating details, the researchers discovered, it's possible to create a more precise forecast of a company's financial future.

Rather than replacing prior work on the subject, Rountree's team delved deeper into the significance of details within existing data. Their focus: whether including a firm's market, its overall industry and any unique activity specific to the firm makes for a more reliable profit forecast. Their conclusion: Firms can indeed improve their predictions if they separate returns on net operating assets (RNOA) into separate components and use those figures in their projections.

Normally, firms use market and industry related data to create future profit predictions. For example, a major oil company might use data on market conditions and the overall state of the oil industry to build its profits prediction. The resulting financial literature might be peppered with statements such as, "Like the rest of big oil…" or "The overall market for oil remains soft."

While this type of data is typically used to make projections, Rountree and his colleagues used the market and industry information more formally by creating the equivalent of stock return betas — a statistical measure of risk — for corporate earnings. In addition, they allowed for adding firm-specific information to market and industry information to help forecast earnings.

To conduct their study, Rountree's team used Compustat quarterly data to calculate firm, industry and market RNOAs from 1976 to 2014. Next, they broke these figures down and separated the results into different categories.

Their resulting formula differs from the conventional approach because it doesn't rely on one average set of market and industry-related data for each firm. Instead, it assumes varying factors for each company. The devil is in these details: Calculating specific market, industry and firm-idiosyncratic components improves the chances of forecasting profits correctly.

Correctly breaking down and separating profitability details to plug into the new formula is no small task. Separating company data into just three components requires up to 20 quarters of figures about prior profitability.

Once the information is processed, a researcher must then be vigilant for "noise" — incidental, irrelevant data that can lead to errors. Finally, Rountree warns, the breakdown process may not work as well for forecasting bankruptcy as it does for profits.

Used correctly, however, the technique is a practical new tool. By breaking down profitability into market, industry and firm-specific idiosyncrasies, researchers can improve forecasts strikingly compared to conventional calculations of total RNOAs.

The most accurate profit forecasts in other words, demand more than just a figurative shake of an industry Magic 8 Ball. To find the most reliable information about future earnings, a company instead has to flawlessly juggle years' worth of specific details about their particular firm. But the reward of planning based on a correct forecast can pay for itself.

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This story originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom. It's based on research by Brian Rountree, an associate professor of accounting at Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University.

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Houston mental health nonprofit expands platform statewide to connect more Texans with care

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As mental health conversations evolve, the necessary pivot becomes how organizations across Texas navigate improved ways to help people access the care they need before their challenges become crises.

That’s why Mental Health America of Greater Houston recently announced that it is expanding its Care Connect platform statewide.

The expansion will address perhaps the most persistent barrier to behavioral healthcare—helping people find and navigate services that already exist.

Care Connect’s extended reach comes at a time when more than 3.5 million adults in the state live with some kind of mental health condition and scores of those in need continue to struggle with accessing care despite the growing awareness of mental health needs.

According to President and CEO Renae Vania Tomczak, Care Connect’s main goal was to remove as many obstacles as possible that Texans face when seeking mental health support.

“Care Connect was about a two-year planning process,” Tomczak says. “It really began with asking what challenges people in the Greater Houston Area were facing regarding mental health. It’s not just accessing care, but the difficulty in navigating the mental healthcare system.”

While provider shortages remain a challenge in some communities, Mental Health America of Greater Houston found that many individuals and families struggle simply to determine where to turn, how to identify the right provider and whether services are affordable.

“We wanted to make it easier for people who have questions, who may never have had a mental health challenge before, or they’re a caregiver for somebody who has a mental health issue,” Tomczak says. “We wanted to be the place that people can come to get their questions answered and be connected to care.”

Care Connect combines a vetted network of more than 1,000 providers and services across Texas with personalized navigation support.

Searches generate care results based on insurance coverage, language preferences, ZIP code and clinical specialties.

Additionally, one-on-one guidance and follow-up support are provided by bilingual resource specialists.

The platform also seeks to address affordability, one of the most significant barriers to mental healthcare access. Through participating providers, eligible individuals can receive six to eight counseling sessions at no cost.

“We have several providers who are willing to provide six to eight counseling sessions at no cost for people who do not have the means to pay for services themselves,” Tomczak says.

When provider matches are unavailable, the organization can connect individuals with master’s-level mental health professionals working under the supervision of licensed clinicians.

The statewide rollout builds on the platform’s early success in the Houston region, where it has helped thousands of individuals connect with mental health resources since launching last fall.

According to Tomczak, the decision to expand was driven in part by growing demand from outside the organization’s traditional service area.

“Last month we decided to take this program statewide,” she says. “It’s not just Houston that can use help in connecting to appropriate mental health services, but the whole state.”

The Care Connect program’s promotion through healthcare providers, community organizations and public-sector partners across Texas is now one of Mental Health America of Greater Houston’s top priorities.

Their goal is to create a stronger referral ecosystem that ultimately helps those who need access to mental health care more quickly.

To facilitate that, the organization has also added free mental health screenings to its website so that users will better identify any symptoms related to anxiety, depression and other conditions.

“Once they do that, then where do they go?” Tomczak says. “They’re not sure who to call and who can help them. At that point, we hope they’ll call us and talk to somebody live who can answer their questions and help them get started on the right path to improving their mental health.”

With eyes on the future, Tomczak believes public understanding of mental health has improved in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought new attention to the effects of stress, isolation and uncertainty.

“The more we talk about it and have the opportunity to share that mental health conditions are traceable, the better,” she says.

According to Tomczak, long-term, Care Connect aims to reduce roadblocks that exist between recognizing the need for help and receiving it.

Ultimately, Care Connect hopes to create a robustly connected behavioral health system that gives Texans the ability to access mental health services swiftly and with confidence.

“No one should have to navigate mental health challenges alone,” Tomczak adds. “Care Connect is here to help connect people with resources, services and answers to ensure they get the care they need to take the next step toward better mental health.”

ExxonMobil sets date to make Texas its legal HQ

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Energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp. has set a date to move its legal headquarters to Texas.

The Spring-based company announced this week that the redomiciliation from New Jersey to Texas is expected to be effective July 1. Exxon's board of directors unanimously recommended redomiciling in the Lone Star State in March, and shareholders approved the move to Texas at the company’s annual meeting in May.

As part of the move, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. will replace Exxon Mobil Corp. of New Jersey and become the publicly traded parent company. Exxon reports that its shares will continue to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “XOM,” and that shareholders do not need to take action.

At the time of the recommendation, Exxon said the move would not affect business operations, management, strategy, assets or employee locations.

Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods added that the redomiciliation was in part due to Texas' business-friendly environment and policies.

"Over the past several years, Texas has made a noticeable effort to embrace the business community. In doing so, it has created a policy and regulatory environment that can allow the company to maximize shareholder value,” Woods said in a news release. "Aligning our legal home with our operating home, in a state that understands our business and has a stake in the company’s success, is important.”

The Associated Press reports that about 30 percent of Exxon's employees work in Texas. Exxon's legal headquarters has been based in New Jersey since 1882, when it was Standard Oil Company.

Exxon moved its operational headquarters from Irving, Texas, to the Houston area in 2023.

Exxon was the highest-ranking Houston-area company on this year's Fortune 500 list, coming in at No. 9. Houston tied with Chicago for the second-most Fortune 500 headquarters on this year's list, with Texas leading the nation for the most Fortune 500 headquarters (57).

“Texas is the undisputed headquarters of headquarters,” Gov. Greg Abbott said in a news release. “The world’s leading businesses invest with confidence in Texas because of our welcoming business climate, predictable regulatory environment, and skilled and growing workforce. People and businesses are choosing Texas because Texas works.”

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.