Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Houston-founded startup raises $1.2M and moves headquarters to Detroit

moving forward

Houston-founded ChurchSpace, known as the Airbnb for churches, has formed an official partnership with the City of Detroit and will relocate its headquarters.

The announcements come as the company successfully closed a $1.2 million oversubscribed funding round. The round was led by California-based Black Ops Ventures, with participation from Michigan Rise and Dug Song of Minor Capital, who is also the founder of the Song Foundation, another Michigan-based organization.

"This raise is more than a business milestone—it's a testament to what happens when strategy meets faith. In today's climate, raising capital takes grit and resilience—especially without deep networks or traditional access. By God's grace, doors have opened, and our mission is clearer than ever. Now, with capital in hand, we're building boldly toward a future where the Church isn't just surviving—but leading community transformation," Emmanuel Brown, co-founder and CEO of ChurchSpace, said in a statement.

In Detroit, ChurchSpace plans to activate underutilized church campuses as micro-logistics spaces for food distribution and retail partnerships, as well as last-mile delivery centers. To kick off its relocation, ChurchSpace will host a Detroit Pastor Meetup on July 19.

"We welcome ChurchSpace's investment in Detroit and the jobs and innovation it will bring," Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan added in the release. "Our faith community has long been a critical backbone of our neighborhoods. Through ChurchSpace's groundbreaking work, they will continue to be anchors of opportunity and resilience in our city's future."

ChurchSpace was originally founded to convert underutilized church real estate into event, meeting and commercial kitchen space to boost revenue and relieve financial burden while remaining compliant with IRS regulations for non-profits. The company participated in the inaugural cohort of the AWS Impact Accelerator for Black Founders, which included a pre-seed fundraising campaign and a $125,000 equity injection from Amazon in 2022. It was also one of two Houston companies to receive $100,000 as part of the Google for Startups Black Founders Fund that same year.

The company reports that its platform in Texas has generated up to $100,000 annually in new revenue that was reinvested into church ministries, food programs and community initiatives.

"What we built in Houston was more than technology—it was transformation. We expanded our purpose and packaged proven strategies to help churches thrive, transform communities, and even combat food insecurity," Day Edwards, co-founder and president of ChurchSpace, added in the statement. "Now, with prayer and the support of our team and investors, we're bringing that same impact to Detroit—to help churches, communities, and small businesses redefine pulpits and rediscover communal possibilities."

Houston space tech co. lands millions and more innovation news to know

Trending News

Editor's note: It's time to recap the top innovation news for the first half of May 2025. Our five most-read stories from May 1-15 include updates from Intuitive Machines and The Ion. Plus, driverless trucks hit the road from Houston to Dallas. Get all of the details below.

1. Houston space tech leader lands up to $10 million for Earth re-entry vehicle and lab

The Texas Space Commission has selected Houston's Intuitive Machines to develop a vehicle that will return lunar samples to Earth, along with an orbital fabrication lab. Photo courtesy Intuitive Machines.

Houston-based space technology, infrastructure, and services company Intuitive Machines has been awarded a state grant of up to $10 million to help develop an Earth re-entry vehicle and in-space biomanufacturing lab. The Texas Space Commission approved the grant, which is coming from the state’s Space Exploration and Research Fund. Intuitive Machines says the money will support its “critical risk-reduction platform” for returning lunar samples to Earth. The funding will go toward an early 12-month phase of the project. Continue reading.

2. 9 can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for May

Don't miss these May events — from an investor activation series to a crawfish cook-off. Photo courtesy Greentown Labs.

There's a lot to learn this month at events around Houston. Hear from AI and energy experts or gain insights into how to tap into funding at informative panels or sessions. Continue reading.

3. Autonomous truck company rolls out driverless Houston-Dallas route

Aurora began regular driverless deliveries between Houston and Dallas on April 27. Photo courtesy Aurora.

Houston is helping drive the evolution of self-driving freight trucks. In October, Aurora opened a more than 90,000-square-foot terminal at a Fallbrook Drive logistics hub in northwest Houston to support the launch of its first “lane” for driverless trucks—a Houston-to-Dallas route on the Interstate 45 corridor. Aurora opened its Dallas-area terminal in April and the company began regular driverless customer deliveries between the two Texas cities on April 27. Continue reading.

4. Texas-based 'DoorDash for laundry' startup tumbles into Houston market

The service has been a smash success in Austin. Courtesy photo

Laundry may seem like an endless task that piles up, but a new service offers a solution to overwhelmed Houston families. NoScrubs, an Austin-based home laundry pickup service has just expanded to Houston. Described by the company as "DoorDash — but for laundry," they wash customer's clothes at local laundromats and return them the same day, folded and ready to be put away. The service took off like gangbusters in Austin, making an expansion to the state's largest city an obvious choice. Continue reading.

5. New energy innovation and coworking spaces open at the Ion

The Oxy Innovation Center has opened at the Ion and Industrious' coworking space launches soon. Photo courtesy of The Ion

Houston-based Occidental officially opened its new Oxy Innovation Center with a ribbon cutting at the Ion. The opening reflects Oxy and the Ion's "shared commitment to advancing technology and accelerating a lower-carbon future," according to an announcement from the Ion. Oxy, which was named a corporate partner of the Ion in 2023, now has nearly 6,500 square feet on the fourth floor of the Ion. Rice University and the Rice Real Estate Company announced the lease of the additional space last year, along with agreements with Fathom Fund and Activate. Continue reading.

Houston healthtech leader launches clinical trial for innovative anxiety-treating device

making waves

Houston-based Nexalin Technology’s proprietary neurostimulation device will move forward with a new clinical trial evaluating its treatment of anxiety disorders and chronic insomnia in Brazil.

The first of Nexalin’s Gen-2 15-milliamp neurostimulation devices have been shipped to São Paulo, Brazil, and the study will be conducted at the Instituto de Psiquiatria university hospital (IPq-HCFMUSP). The shipments aim to support the launch of a Phase II clinical trial in adult patients suffering from anxiety and insomnia, according to a news release.

“Brazil is an important emerging market for mental health innovation, and this collaboration marks our first IRB-approved study in the region,” Mike White, CEO of Nexalin, said in the release.

The study will be led by Dr. Andre Russowsky Brunoni, who specializes in neuromodulation and interventional psychiatry. He currently serves as director of the interventional psychiatry division at IPq-HCFMUSP and this summer will join UT Southwestern in Dallas and its Peter O’Donnell Jr. Brain Institute as a professor of psychiatry.

The Phase II study plans to enroll 30 adults in São Paulo and assess the efficacy of Nexalin’s non-invasive deep intracranial frequency stimulation (DIFS™) of the brain in reducing anxiety symptoms and improving sleep quality, according to the company. Using the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A), the trial’s goal is a reduction in anxiety symptoms, and assessments of sleep onset latency, total sleep time, overall sleep quality, depressive symptoms and clinical impression of improvement. The company plans to share results in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

“Anxiety and insomnia are very common conditions that often occur together and cause significant distress,” Brunoni added in the news release. “In this study, we are testing a new, non-invasive brain stimulation technology that has shown promising results in recent research. Our goal is to offer a safe, painless, and accessible alternative to improve people’s well being and sleep quality.”

The Nexalin Gen-2 15-milliamp neurostimulation device has been approved in China, Brazil, and Oman.

The company also enrolled the first patients in its clinical trial at the University of California, San Diego, in collaboration with the VA San Diego Healthcare System for its Nexalin HALO, which looks to treat mild traumatic brain injury and post-traumatic stress disorder in military personnel and the civilian population. It also recently raised $5 million through a public stock offering. Read more here.