Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Houston startup designing emergency response drones lands $5.2M in seed funding

cha-ching

Houston-based Paladin, whose remotely controlled drones help first responders react quickly to emergencies, has collected $5.2 million in seed funding.

Gradient, a seed fund that backs AI-oriented startups, led the round. Also participating were Toyota Ventures, the early-stage VC arm of Japanese automaker Toyota; venture capital firm Khosla Ventures; and VC fund 1517.

“We believe Paladin will drive meaningful change in public safety and redefine how communities are served,” Gradient said in an announcement about the seed round.

In 2019, Paladin received $1.3 million in seed funding from Khosla Ventures and Gmail creator Paul Buchheit, a group partner at Y Combinator. In 2018, the year it was co-founded by Divyaditya Shrivastava and Trevor Pennypacker, Paladin graduated from Y Combinator’s three-month boot camp.

Paladin’s AI-enhanced autonomous drones help public safety agencies, such as police and fire departments, respond to 911 calls. These drones provide aerial views of emergency scenes in an effort to decrease response times, improve “situational awareness,” and save lives, according to a Gradient blog post.

Among the agencies that have tried out Paladin’s technology is the Houston area’s Memorial Villages Police Department. The department participated in a three-month Paladin pilot project in 2019.

"(This is) one of the first departments in the country to be testing this technology," Shrivastava told InnovationMap in 2019. "We're very limited in the area that we cover, and that's just because we're taking baby steps and going as carefully and deliberately as possible."

Gradient says more than 12,000 drone missions have been performed using Paladin’s hardware and software platform. Agencies that have adopted the platform report average response times under 90 seconds. Furthermore, the technology has allowed them to resolve nearly one-third of 911 calls without dispatching first responders.

“Paladin keeps innovating, recently launching Payload Drop, a groundbreaking feature that enables drones to deliver lifesaving equipment — such as Narcan, life vests, and AEDs — directly to emergency scenes,” says Gradient.

On its website, Paladin says it envisions autonomous drones responding to every 911 call in the U.S. by 2027.

“The information is paramount, the technology exists and is rapidly improving, and the need is there. We want to help,” Paladin proclaims.

Energy, investment groups take up leases in Houston innovation hub

moving in

The Ion in Midtown has some new tenants taking up residence in its 90 percent-leased building.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, Fathom Fund, and Activate are the latest additions to the Ion, according to a news release from Rice University and the Rice Real Estate Company, which own and operate the 16-acre Ion District where the Ion is located. With the additions, the building has just 10 percent left up for grabs.

“As the Ion continues to attract leading companies and organizations across industries, it’s clear that our vision of creating a dynamic and collaborative environment for innovation is resonating,” Ken Jett, president of the Rice Real Estate Company and vice president of facilities and capital planning at Rice, says in the release. “We are proud to set the standard for how the workplace can evolve to foster the commercialization and growth of transformative technologies that enhance quality of life in our community and beyond.”

Oxy, which was named a corporate partner of the Ion last year, now has nearly 6,500 square feet on the fourth floor where it will be housing its Zero In department that's focused on pioneering low-carbon initiatives. The build out process is slated to be completed by early 2025.

While Oxy represents the corporate side of innovation, the other two additions have their own roles in the innovation arena. Houston-based Fathom Fund, which launched its $100 million fund earlier this year, is targeting deep-tech venture opportunities and is led by Managing Partners Paul Sheng and Eric Bielke.

Founded in Berkeley, California, Activate, which announced its expansion into Houston in 2023, has officially named its local office in the Ion. The hardtech-focused incubator program recently named its inaugural cohort and opened applications for the 2025 program.

Other recent joiners to the Ion includes Kongsberg Digital, Artemis Energy Partners, CES Renewables, and Eleox.

“The partnerships we’ve forged are vital to shaping the Ion into a vibrant ecosystem for startups, where collaborative innovation is not only driving local economic growth but also positioning Houston as a global leader in the energy transition,” Paul Cherukuri, chief innovation officer at Rice University, says. “With our team leading the programming and activation across the Ion district, we are creating companies that harness cutting-edge technology for the benefit of society—advancing solutions that contribute to social good while addressing the most pressing challenges of our time. This powerful network is redefining Houston’s role in the future of energy, technology, and social impact.”

Houston's top innovators named, VC activity takes a hit, and more top tech, startup news from the week

now trending

Editor's note:Let's roundup the most-read Houston innovation news from the week. Trending Houston tech and startup articles from InnovationMap and its daily newsletter included the the Houston Innovation Awards finalists being named, a new report that shows Houston venture funding is down, and more.

Top innovators: 2024 Houston Innovation Awards finalists revealed

Here's what Houston startups and innovators will be honored at the Houston Innovation Awards on November 14. Graphic via Gow Media

After nearly 300 nominations, InnovationMap and its group of judges are ready to reveal the finalists for this year's Houston Innovation Awards.

Taking place on Thursday, November 14, the Houston Innovation Awards celebrates all of Houston's innovation ecosystem — startups, entrepreneurs, investors, mentors, and more. Over 50 finalists will be recognized in particular for their achievements across 13 categories, which includes the 2024 Trailblazer Legacy Awards that were announced earlier this month.

Click here to see the 2024 Houston Innovation Awards finalists.

After trending up all year, Houston VC activity drops in Q3

During the third quarter of 2024, Houston-area companies saw a 15 percent decrease of VC investment compared to the third quarter of 2023. Photo via Getty Images

New data from the PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor reveals a seesaw pattern in the Houston area’s venture capital funding.

VC fundraising by Houston-area companies climbed during the first part of this year compared with the same period last year, according to the latest PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor. But from 2023 to 2024, the region’s third-quarter VC haul fell by a double-digit percentage.

In the first three quarters of 2024, Houston-area companies collected $1.24 billion in venture capital, the PitchBook/NVCA Venture Monitor shows. That’s up eight percent from the $1.15 billion raised in the first three quarters of 2023. Continue reading.

Houston health care leader secures funding, milestones for latest initiatives across cancer, stroke, and more

UTHealth Houston has secured millions in grant funding — plus has reached a new milestone for one of its projects. Photo via utsystem.edu

UTHealth Houston is making waves in many disciplines right now. From cancer to Alzheimer’s disease to stroke, the institution is improving outcomes for patients in new ways. Last week, UTHealth announced three exciting updates to its roster of accomplishments.

On October 8, UTHealth announced that it had received a $4.8 million grant from the National Cancer Institute, aimed at helping cancer survivors to continue their healing and enhancing primary care capacity. It will be put into action by UTHealth researchers working with eight community health centers around Texas that treat un- and underinsured patients. The initiative is called Project CASCADE, which stands for Community and Academic Synergy for Cancer Survivorship Care Delivery Enhancement.

“Project CASCADE focuses on how primary healthcare teams provide whole-person and coordinated care to underserved patients who have a history of cancer,” says Bijal Balasubramanian, professor of epidemiology and the Rockwell Distinguished Chair in Society and Health at UTHealth Houston School of Public Health, a multiple principal investigator of the study. “Primary care is uniquely suited to deliver whole-person and coordinated care for cancer survivors because, at its core, it prioritizes, personalizes and integrates healthcare for all conditions, not just the cancer.” Continue reading.

Houston biotech VC firm's portfolio cos. score $5.3M in federal funding

Three of First Bight Venture's portfolio companies have secured federal funding. Photo via Getty Images

Three portfolio companies of Houston venture capital firm First Bight Ventures have received a combined $5.25 million from the U.S. Defense Department’s Distributed Bioindustrial Manufacturing Program.

“The allocation of funds by the federal government will be critical in helping grow biomanufacturing capacity,” Veronica Breckenridge (née Wu), founder of First Bight, says in a news release. “We are very proud to represent three dynamic companies that are awardees of this competitive and widely praised program.” Continue reading.

NASA awards Houston university $1.2M for diversity in aerospace initiative

The funding will go toward promoting diversity in aerospace workforce development. Photo via UH.edu

NASA will award the University of Houston $1.2 million toward a collaborative project with some of the biggest players in aerospace to foster diversity in the field.

The funds will go toward UH's Partnership for Inclusivity in Engineering Education and Research for Space, or PIE2RS, which is a collaboration between UH, UH-Clear Lake, NASA’s Johnson Space Center, the Boeing Company, and the Greater Houston Partnership. Continue reading.

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