Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Houston climbs to top 10 spot on North American tech hubs index

tech report

Houston already is the Energy Capital of the World, and now it’s gaining ground as a tech hub.

On Site Selection magazine’s 2026 North American Tech Hub Index, Houston jumped to No. 10 from No. 16 last year. The index relies on data from Site Selection as well as data from CBRE, CompTIA and TeleGeography to rank the continent’s tech hotspots. The index incorporates factors such as internet connectivity, tech talent and facility projects for tech companies.

In 2023, the Greater Houston Partnership noted the region had “begun to receive its due as a prominent emerging tech hub, joining the likes of San Francisco and Austin as a major player in the sector, and as a center of activity for the next generation of innovators and entrepreneurs.”

The Houston-area tech sector employs more than 230,000 people, according to the partnership, and generates an economic impact of $21.2 billion.

Elsewhere in Texas, two other metros fared well on the Site Selection index:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth nabbed the No. 1 spot, up from No. 2 last year.
  • Austin rose from No. 8 last year to No. 7 this year.

San Antonio slid from No. 18 in 2025 to No. 22 in 2026, however.

Two economic development officials in DFW chimed in about the region’s No. 1 ranking on the index:

  • “This ranking affirms what we’ve long seen on the ground — Dallas-Fort Worth is a top-tier technology and innovation center,” said Duane Dankesreiter, senior vice president of research and innovation at the Dallas Regional Chamber. “Our region’s scale, talent base, and diverse strengths … continue to set DFW apart as a national leader.”
  • “Being recognized as the top North American tech hub underscores the strength of the entire Dallas-Fort Worth region as a center of innovation and next-generation technology,” said Robert Allen, president and CEO of the Fort Worth Economic Development Partnership.

While not directly addressing Austin’s Site Selection ranking, Thom Singer, CEO of the Austin Technology Council, recently pondered whether Silicon Hills will grow “into the kind of community that other cities study for the right reasons.”

“Austin tech is not a club. It is not a scene. It is not a hashtag, a happy hour, or any one place or person,” Singer wrote on the council’s blog. “Austin tech is an economic engine and a global brand, built by thousands of people who decided to take a risk, build something, hire others, and be part of a community that is still young enough to reinvent itself.”

South of Austin, Port San Antonio is driving much of that region’s tech activity. Occupied by more than 80 employers, the 1,900-acre tech and innovation campus was home to 18,400 workers in 2024 and created a local economic impact of $7.9 billion, according to a study by Zenith Economics.

“Port San Antonio is a prime example of how innovation and infrastructure come together to strengthen [Texas’] economy, support thousands of good jobs, and keep Texas competitive on the global stage,” said Kelly Hancock, the acting state comptroller.

14 Houston startups starting 2026 with fresh funding

cha-ching

Houston startups closed out the last half of 2025 with major funding news.

Here are 14 Houston companies—from groundbreaking energy leaders to growing space startups—that secured funding in the last six months of the year, according to reporting by InnovationMap and our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

Did we miss a funding round? Let us know by emailing innoeditor@innovationmap.com.

Fervo Energy

Fervo Energy has closed an oversubscribed Series E. Photo via Fervo Energy

Houston-based geothermal energy company Fervo Energy closed an oversubscribed $462 million series E funding round, led by new investor B Capital, in December.

The company also secured $205.6 million from three sources in June.

“Fervo is setting the pace for the next era of clean, affordable, and reliable power in the U.S.,” Jeff Johnson, general partner at B Capital, said in a news release.

The funding will support the continued buildout of Fervo’s Utah-based Cape Station development, which is slated to start delivering 100 MW of clean power to the grid beginning in 2026. Cape Station is expected to be the world's largest next-generation geothermal development, according to Fervo. The development of several other projects will also be included in the new round of funding. Continue reading.

Square Robot

Houston robotics co. unveils new robot that can handle extreme temperatures

Square Robot's technology eliminates the need for humans to enter dangerous and toxic environments. Photo courtesy of Square Robot

Houston- and Boston-based Square Robot Inc. announced a partnership with downstream and midstream energy giant Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) last month.

The partnership came with an undisclosed amount of funding from Marathon, which Square Robot says will help "shape the design and development" of its submersible robotics platform and scale its fleet for nationwide tank inspections. Continue reading.

Eclipse Energy

Eclipse Energy and Weatherford International are expected to launch joint projects early this year. Photo courtesy of Eclipse Energy.

Oil and gas giant Weatherford International (NASDAQ: WFRD) made a capital investment for an undisclosed amount in Eclipse Energy in December as part of a collaborative partnership aimed at scaling and commercializing Eclipse's clean fuel technology.

According to a release, joint projects from the two Houston-based companies are expected to launch as soon as this month. The partnership aims to leverage Weatherford's global operations with Eclipse Energy's pioneering subsurface biotechnology that converts end-of-life oil fields into low-cost, sustainable hydrogen sources. Continue reading.

Venus Aerospace 

Lockheed Martin Ventures says it's committed to helping Houston-based Venus Aerospace scale its technology. Photo courtesy Venus Aerospace

Venus Aerospace, a Houston-based startup specializing in next-generation rocket engine propulsion, has received funding from Lockheed Martin Ventures, the investment arm of aerospace and defense contractor Lockheed Martin, for an undisclosed amount, the company announced in November. The product lineup at Lockheed Martin includes rockets.

The investment follows Venus’ successful high-thrust test flight of its rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) in May. Venus says it’s the only company in the world that makes a flight-proven, high-thrust RDRE with a “clear path to scaled production.”

Venus says the Lockheed Martin Ventures investment reflects the potential of Venus’ dual-use technology for defense and commercial uses. Continue reading.

Koda Health

Tatiana Fofanova and Dr. Desh Mohan, founders of Koda Health, which recently closed a $7 million series A. Photo courtesy Koda Health.

Houston-based digital advance care planning company Koda Health closed an oversubscribed $7 million series A funding round in October.

The round, led by Evidenced, with participation from Mudita Venture Partners, Techstars and Texas Medical Center, will allow the company to scale operations and expand engineering, clinical strategy and customer success, according to a news release.

The company shared that the series A "marks a pivotal moment," as it has secured investments from influential leaders in the healthcare and venture capital space. Continue reading.

Hertha Metals

U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, a Magnolia Republican, and Hertha Metals founder and CEO Laureen Meroueh toured Hertha’s Conroe plant in August. Photo courtesy Hertha Metals/Business Wire.

Conroe-based Hertha Metals, a producer of substantial steel, hauled in more than $17 million in venture capital from Khosla Ventures, Breakthrough Energy Fellows, Pear VC, Clean Energy Ventures and other investors.

The money was put toward the construction and the launch of its 1-metric-ton-per-day pilot plant in Conroe, where its breakthrough in steelmaking has been undergoing tests. The company uses a single-step process that it claims is cheaper, more energy-efficient and equally as scalable as conventional steelmaking methods. The plant is fueled by natural gas or hydrogen.

The company, founded in 2022, plans to break ground early this year on a new plant. The facility will be able to produce more than 9,000 metric tons of steel per year. Continue reading.

Helix Earth Technologies, Resilitix Intelligence and Fluxworks Inc.

Helix Earth's technology is estimated to save up to half of the net energy used in commercial air conditioning, reducing both emissions and costs for operators. Photo via Getty Images

Houston-based Helix Earth Technologies, Resilitix Intelligence and Fluxworks Inc. each secured $1.2 million in federal funding through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II grant program this fall.

The three grants from the National Scienve foundation officially rolled out in early September 2025 and are expected to run through August 2027, according to the NSF. The SBIR Phase II grants support in-depth research and development of ideas that showed potential for commercialization after receiving Phase I grants from government agencies.

However, congressional authority for the program, often called "America's seed fund," expired on Sept. 30, 2025, and has stalled since the recent government shutdown. Continue reading.

Solidec Inc. (pre-seed)

7 innovative startups that are leading the energy transition in Houston

Houston-based Solidec was founded around innovations developed by Rice University associate professor Haotian Wang (far left). Photo courtesy Greentown Labs.

Solidec, a Houston startup that specializes in manufacturing “clean” chemicals, raised more than $2 million in pre-seed funding in August.

Houston-based New Climate Ventures led the oversubscribed pre-seed round, with participation from Plug and Play Ventures, Ecosphere Ventures, the Collaborative Fund, Safar Partners, Echo River Capital and Semilla Climate Capital, among other investors. Continue reading.

Molecule

Sameer Soleja is the founder and CEO of Molecule, which just closed its series B round. Photo courtesy of Molecule Software.

Houston-based energy trading risk management (ETRM) software company Molecule completed a successful series B round for an undisclosed amount, according to a July 16 release from the company.

The raise was led by Sundance Growth, a California-based software growth equity firm. Sameer Soleja, founder and CEO of Molecule, said in the release that the funding will allow the company to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets." Continue reading.

Rarefied Studios, Solidec Inc. and Affekta

Houston startups were named among the nearly 300 recipients that received a portion of $44.85 million from NASA to develop space technology this fall. Photo via NASA/Ben Smegelsky

Houston-based Rarefied Studios, Solidec Inc. and Affekta were granted awards from NASA this summer to develop new technologies for the space agency.

The companies are among nearly 300 recipients that received a total agency investment of $44.85 million through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Phase I grant programs, according to NASA.

Each selected company received $150,000 and, based on their progress, will be eligible to submit proposals for up to $850,000 in Phase II funding to develop prototypes. The SBIR program lasts for six months and contracts small businesses. Continue reading.

Intuitive Machines 

Intuitive Machines expects to begin manufacturing and flight integration on its orbital transfer vehicle as soon as 2026. Photo courtesy Intuitive Machines.

Houston-based Intuitive Machines secured a $9.8 million Phase II government contract for its orbital transfer vehicle in July.

The contract was expected to push the project through its Critical Design Review phase, which is the final engineering milestone before manufacturing can begin, according to a news release from the company. Intuitive Machines reported that it expected to begin manufacturing and flight integration for its orbital transfer vehicle as soon as this year, once the design review is completed.

The non-NASA contract is for an undisclosed government customer, which Intuitive Machines says reinforces its "strategic move to diversify its customer base and deliver orbital capabilities that span commercial, civil, and national security space operations." Continue reading.

NRG inks new virtual power plant partnership to meet surging energy demands

Powering Up

Houston-based NRG Energy recently announced a new long-term partnership with San Francisco-based Sunrun that aims to meet Texas’ surging energy demands and accelerate the adoption of home battery storage in Texas. The partnership also aligns with NRG’s goal of developing a 1-gigawatt virtual power plant by connecting thousands of decentralized energy sources by 2035.

Through the partnership, the companies will offer Texas residents home energy solutions that pair Sunrun’s solar-plus-storage systems with optimized rate plans and smart battery programming through Reliant, NRG’s retail electricity provider. As new customers enroll, their stored energy can be aggregated and dispatched to the ERCOT grid, according to a news release.

Additionally, Sunrun and NRG will work to create customer plans that aggregate and dispatch distributed power and provide electricity to Texas’ grid during peak periods.

“Texas is growing fast, and our electricity supply must keep pace,” Brad Bentley, executive vice president and president of NRG Consumer, said in the release. “By teaming up with Sunrun, we’re unlocking a new source of dispatchable, flexible energy while giving customers the opportunity to unlock value from their homes and contribute to a more resilient grid

Participating Reliant customers will be paid for sharing their stored solar energy through the partnership. Sunrun will be compensated for aggregating the stored capacity.

“This partnership demonstrates the scale and strength of Sunrun’s storage and solar distributed power plant assets,” Sunrun CEO Mary Powell added in the release. “We are delivering critical energy infrastructure that gives Texas families affordable, resilient power and builds a reliable, flexible power plant for the grid.”

In December, Reliant also teamed up with San Francisco tech company GoodLeap to bolster residential battery participation and accelerate the growth of NRG’s virtual power plant network in Texas.

In 2024, NRG partnered with California-based Renew Home to distribute hundreds of thousands of VPP-enabled smart thermostats by 2035 to help households manage and lower their energy costs. At the time, the company reported that its 1-gigawatt VPP would be able to provide energy to 200,000 homes during peak demand.

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This article originally appeared on EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

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