Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Rice University spinout lands $500K NSF grant to boost chip sustainability

cooler computing

HEXAspec, a spinout from Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, was recently awarded a $500,000 National Science Foundation Partnership for Innovation grant.

The team says it will use the funding to continue enhancing semiconductor chips’ thermal conductivity to boost computing power. According to a release from Rice, HEXAspec has developed breakthrough inorganic fillers that allow graphic processing units (GPUs) to use less water and electricity and generate less heat.

The technology has major implications for the future of computing with AI sustainably.

“With the huge scale of investment in new computing infrastructure, the problem of managing the heat produced by these GPUs and semiconductors has grown exponentially. We’re excited to use this award to further our material to meet the needs of existing and emerging industry partners and unlock a new era of computing,” HEXAspec co-founder Tianshu Zhai said in the release.

HEXAspec was founded by Zhai and Chen-Yang Lin, who both participated in the Rice Innovation Fellows program. A third co-founder, Jing Zhang, also worked as a postdoctoral researcher and a research scientist at Rice, according to HEXAspec's website.

The HEXASpec team won the Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship's H. Albert Napier Rice Launch Challenge in 2024. More recently, it also won this year's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition during CERAWeek in the TEX-E student track, taking home $25,000.

"The grant from the NSF is a game-changer, accelerating the path to market for this transformative technology," Kyle Judah, executive director of Lilie, added in the release.

5 ways technology is transforming the workplace for people with disabilities

Guest Column

When Camp For All opened its barrier-free gates more than 30 years ago, our founders believed that design could level the playing field for children and adults with challenging illnesses, disabilities, or special needs. Today, that same philosophy is necessary for workplaces across Greater Houston and beyond; only now the ramps and handrails are digital as much as physical, powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and innovation.

Technology has significantly transformed the workplace for individuals with disabilities, making it easier for them to perform their roles with greater efficiency and independence. Tools such as ergonomic workstations, adaptive keyboards, closed captioning, dictation software, screen magnifiers, and robotics help customize the work environment to accommodate various needs. Additionally, advancements in remote work technology have opened the door to broader employment opportunities, reducing physical barriers to participation in the workforce.

Here are five ways that technology turns “reasonable accommodation” into universal enablement and why every employer should take note.

From closed-captioning to real-time conversation

Ten years ago, businesses relied upon human typists and translators to convert conversations and presentations for those with disabilities. Today, AI speech-to-text engines like Microsoft 365’s Live Captions or Google Workspace’s Meet Transcripts render spoken words into on-screen text across 40-plus languages and dialects in milliseconds. This means deaf and hard-of-hearing employees can follow rapid brainstorming sessions without waiting for a post-meeting transcript.

If you are not already using these tools in your workplace, it is easy to start. Most of these services are free or very low-cost, but produce a high return in employee productivity. Individuals with hearing deficiencies can participate in real-time conversations, give feedback, and bring their unique perspectives to the conversation. These tools also enhance productivity for the larger team by providing all employees with a greater flow of ideas, engagement, and recall.

Voice is the new keyboard

Voice assistants like Siri, Alexa, and Windows Voice Access have matured into integrated tools for everyday life and business. They can now handle paragraph-length dictation, code snippets, and complex spreadsheet commands.

Workers with limited dexterity or sight can participate fully in work tasks, which can level the playing field so everyone can succeed and contribute significantly to the workplace. Additionally, voice-assisted technology can help older employees or employees with differing physical needs continue working longer and retain vital organizational knowledge and expertise, contributing to their team's success.

Readability and writing coaches at scale

The new and highly sensitive AI-powered editors, such as GrammarlyGO and Microsoft Editor, flag jargon, suggest plain-language rewrites, and even adjust tone for cognitive accessibility. This can be a game-changer for neurodivergent professionals, including people with dyslexia or ADHD, as they have to use less brain power decoding dense emails and can get help writing responses in their workplace correspondence.

Again, these free or low-cost tools enable all team members to contribute their unique ideas and perspectives when working together to address workplace challenges, better serve clients, and increase productivity.

Alternative text that captures context

Image-recognition models can now draft alt-text beyond “blue shirt on chair.” Tools like Adobe’s Intelligent Captioning or Meta’s Automatic Alt Text describe emotion, action, and even brand context, giving screen-reader users a richer experience.

Employees with blindness or low vision are more likely to navigate online documents, presentations, and requests independently. These technologies also reduce workloads on marketing teams and help them meet accessibility standards without extensive labor and time.

For businesses that want a varied workforce that brings multiple perspectives, these tools give them a power that hasn’t been harnessed before. If employees living with disabilities have more tools at their disposal, they can, in turn, target specific customers in new ways.

Robots and exoskeletons

Many of us remember The Jetsons cartoon show from the 1960s and how far-fetched their housekeeper robot Rosie seemed then. But now, affordable robots and wearable devices to support employees with spinal cord injuries, chronic pain, and disabilities are helping perform repetitive tasks and reducing strain for everyday work tasks.

These devices may revolutionize unemployment to full-time employment opportunities for many individuals. Devices like ABB’s GoFa and Ottobock’s Paexo can help employers reduce injury claims and retain skilled staff; it’s truly a win-win for employees and employers.


The impact is universal

Eight-foot-wide accessible sidewalks, like the ones we have at Camp For All, help wheelchair users, parents pushing a stroller, and travelers rolling luggage. Similarly, AI captions level the playing field for hearing-impaired colleagues, neurodiverse team members, aging professionals, and every employee skimming a meeting on mute. When we treat accessibility as an innovation driver rather than a compliance checklist, we unleash the potential of productivity, loyalty, and creativity throughout our organizations and companies.

Camp For All sees this throughout the year: when design removes barriers, people discover abilities they never knew they had. Let’s bring that spirit into every Houston boardroom and breakroom — because an inclusive workplace isn’t just the right thing, it’s the smart thing.

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Pat Prior Sorrells is president and CEO of Camp For All, a Texas-based nonprofit organization. Located in Burton, Texas, the 206-acre Camp For Allsite was designed with no barriers for children and adults with special needs to experience the joy of camping and nature. Camp For All collaborates with more than 65 nonprofit organizations across the Greater Houston area and beyond to enable thousands of campers and their families to discover life each year. She speaks regularly on the need for inclusive design in public spaces.

CPRIT grants $22M to bring top cancer researchers to Houston

fresh funding

Several prominent cancer researchers are coming to the Houston area thanks to $22 million in grants recently awarded by the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT).

The biggest CPRIT recruitment grant — $6 million — went to genetics researcher Jean Gautier. Gautier, a professor of genetics and development at Columbia University’s Institute for Cancer Genetics, is joining the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center to continue his research.

The website for Gautier’s lab at Columbia provides this explanation of his research:

“The main objective of our research is to better understand the molecular mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of genome stability. These controls are lost in cancer, which is characterized by genomic instability.”

Aside from his work as a professor, Gautier is co-leader of the Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center’s Cancer Genomics and Epigenomics Program at Columbia.

Other recipients of CPRIT recruitment grants include:

  • $2 million to recruit Xun Sun from the Scripps Research Institute to the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston.
  • $2 million to recruit Mingqi Han from the University of California, Los Angeles to MD Anderson.
  • $2 million to recruit Matthew Jones from Stanford University to MD Anderson.
  • $2 million to recruit Linna An from the University of Washington to Rice University.
  • $2 million to recruit Alissa Greenwald from the Weizmann Institute of Science to MD Anderson.
  • $2 million to recruit Niladri Sinha from Johns Hopkins University to the Baylor College of Medicine.
  • $2 million for Luigi Perelli to stay at MD Anderson so he can be put on a tenure track and set up a research lab.
  • $2 million for Benjamin Schrank to stay at MD Anderson so he can be put on a tenure track and set up a research lab.

Over $20.2 million in academic research grants were awarded to researchers at:

  • Baylor College of Medicine
  • Houston Methodist Research Institute
  • Rice University
  • Texas Southern University
  • University of Houston
  • University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston
  • University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center
  • University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston

In addition, nearly $4.45 million in cancer prevention grants were awarded to one researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston and another at Texas Southern University.

Also, five Houston businesses benefited from CPRIT grants for product development research:

  • Allterum Therapeutics, $2,999,996
  • CTMC, $1,342,178
  • Instapath, $900,000
  • Prana Surgical, $900,000
  • InformAI, $465,188

“Texas is a national leader in the fight against cancer,” said Kristen Pauling Doyle, CPRIT’s CEO. “We can measure the return on investment from CPRIT grants … not only in the economic benefits flowing from increased financial activity and jobs in the state, but more importantly in the cancers avoided, detected early, and treated successfully. Thanks to the Legislature’s vision, this commitment is saving lives.”

Overall, CPRIT approved 61 grants totaling more than $93 million in this recent round of funding.

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