Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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UH secures $5M in philanthropic gifts to bolster engineering, nursing

major gifts

The University of Houston has received two significant philanthropic gifts to advance innovation and healthcare, the college announced this month.

Manmohan Singh Kalsi and Marie-Luise Schubert Kalsi granted $4 million to UH’s Cullen College of Engineering to support endowed and current funds for graduate fellowships and industry interest in the mechanical and aerospace fields.

The gift is the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering’s largest donation in years, according to UH, and will establish two endowed professorships to attract and retain leading faculty. It will also create the Kalsi Faculty Research Fund, which aims to take emerging research to the next level.

Additionally, UH says it will also bring industry experts to campus to present and collaborate with students via the forthcoming Kalsi Seminar Series.

Manmohan Kalsi earned both his master’s degree and Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from UH. He went on to found Sugar Land-based Kalsi Engineering in 1978, which pioneered hydrodynamic rotary sealing technology and valve technology for nuclear power plants. In 2014, he established an endowed professorship within Cullen College in honor of the late UH professor Gabriel Fazekas.

"This gift provides a tremendous boost to our department's strategic momentum,” Karolos Grigoriadis, chair of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, said in a news release. “By simultaneously supporting faculty, graduate researchers and collaborative seminars, the Kalsis are strengthening every part of our research enterprise and creating new opportunities for discovery, collaboration and student mentorship.”

Meanwhile, Houston’s The Hamill Foundation also gave a $1 million gift to UH’s Andy and Barbara Gessner College of Nursing. The funds will establish The Hamill Foundation Endowed Professorship in Community Care Nursing, to support a faculty member focused on community-based nursing education, partnerships, research, and outreach to underserved communities in Houston.

Additionally, the funding will go toward efforts to address nurse shortages through the newly established UH Health program. The Hamill Foundation has donated $6 million previously to UH through the years, but the latest $1 million is the largest single investment from the foundation to date.

“The Hamill Foundation continues to help us raise the bar for nursing education and address the nursing shortage,” Kathryn Tart, founding dean and professor at Gessner College and Humana Endowed Dean's Chair in Nursing, said in a news release. “The enduring commitment and generosity of The Hamill Foundation allow us to answer the call and educate generations of competent and caring nursing professionals.”

Both of the recent gifts help fund UH’s $1 billion Can’t Stop Houston: The Centennial Campaign. As of September, the university had raised more than $881 million. UH turns 100 years old in March 2027.

SpaceX's supersized Starship rocket launches into orbit for first time

Out in Space

SpaceX launched its enormous Starship into orbit for the first time Monday, September 28, and successfully delivered the most advanced Starlink satellites yet, but cut the flight short to ensure safety.

The spacecraft reentered over the Pacific and splashed down north of Hawaii three hours after blasting off from Texas. The company had been aiming for a 10-hour flight, spanning six full laps around Earth, to prove its readiness for NASA’s Artemis moon program.

Starship tipped over and erupted in flames upon splashdown, a dramatic end to the mission.

Elon Musk's Starship almost didn't make it to orbit when one of its engines shut down prematurely. But with everything else working well and the bad engine no longer needed, flight controllers decided, after several tense minutes, to proceed as planned.

“Starship is orbital,” Mission Control announced to cheers.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman congratulated SpaceX on reaching orbit and “managing every step in a safe, responsible and especially inspirational way.”

Rocket carries 26 of Musk's most advanced Starlink satellites

Musk’s showpiece rocket — the biggest and most powerful ever built — carried 26 of the latest Starlinks to join the 11,000 older models already providing internet service. They popped out of the spacecraft one by one, drawing more cheers from the SpaceX crowd at the Starbase launch site.

The decision to end the flight early came soon afterward. SpaceX said hours later in an online update that the decision was made “out of an abundance of caution” because of the early engine trouble.

It was Starship’s 14th full-scale launch from Texas’ southern tip in three years. Earlier test flights ventured no farther than the Indian Ocean halfway around the world, often crashing in flames and briefly skimming space.

This time, the intent was for SpaceX to circle the globe from an altitude of 170 miles (275 kilometers) — not just once but six times over almost 10 hours, ending with a Pacific splashdown near Chile. While Starship achieved the proper orbit, zipping along at 17,500 mph (28,000 kph), flight controllers opted to play it safe and bring it back several hours sooner, after just a couple of laps.

The first-stage booster was never meant to return to the Starbase launch site either, dropping instead into the Gulf of Mexico within minutes of the morning liftoff.

SpaceX wants to ensure that everything works before flying Starship back to Starbase. If the spacecraft breaks apart over land and rains debris onto people, “our popularity would diminish very rapidly,” Musk said at a business summit earlier this month. “That’s why we’re being extremely cautious here.”

Depending on the findings from Monday's orbital debut, the next Starship could return to the launch pad, where giant mechanical arms would grab the hovering spacecraft. If the catch works — Musk gives it even or slightly better odds — then SpaceX will refly the spacecraft by year’s end or early next year.

The 407-foot (124-meter) rocket was designed from the start to be fully reusable, a key to lowering launch costs. SpaceX managed to salvage the last Starship from the Indian Ocean in July. Engineers modified the newly launched Starship’s heat shield based on hands-on inspections of the recovered spacecraft, which is being tugged back to Starbase.

SpaceX wants Starship to be certified for orbital flight

SpaceX is pressing hard to certify Starship for orbital flight, a vital step toward moon and Mars travel.

NASA’s Artemis III mission is coming up as soon as next summer, a triple-launch docking exercise in orbit around Earth between an Orion capsule full of astronauts and competing lunar landers. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Moon would blast off first, followed by Orion — which would close in for a linkup — and then Musk’s Starship for a docking with Orion once Blue Moon is unleashed.

The next mission, Artemis IV, is slated for no sooner than 2028 and would have astronauts landing on the moon in either Blue Moon or Starship, whichever is ready first. Subsequent moonshots will alternate between the two billionaires’ landers.

Musk originally developed Starship for Mars, intending to launch scores of them with the red planet’s first settlers. For now, he plans to focus on the moon and use Starship to haul satellites into orbit by the truckload, phasing out the company’s frailer Falcon 9 rocket within several years. A second Starship launch site is nearing completion at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center and a third is planned for Louisiana.

Houston startup raises $2.4M for sleep apnea technology

sleep score

Houston-based Bairitone Health has closed an oversubscribed seed round and achieved a regulatory milestone, the company tells InnovationMap.

The healthtech startup, which is developing solutions and technology for untreated obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), raised $2.4 million, says CEO and co-founder Meagan Pitcher, exceeding its $2 million goal.

New York-based Golden Seeds, which invests in female entrepreneurs, led the round. Houston-based South Loop Ventures also participated, as well as MALIAM, Impact Invest Her and additional angel, venture, syndicate and family office investors. The company previously raised a pre-seed round of $435,000 in 2024.

Pitcher says the latest funding will go toward Bairitone's clinical site expansion, FDA-facing work and the continued product development of its SOMNAR technology.

"What I’m most excited about is what this lets us do next: expand our clinical testing, work with more patients and physicians, and keep improving based on what we learn," Pitcher said in a LinkedIn post.

SOMNAR is the company's noninvasive diagnostic platform for sleep apnea airway assessment. The platform maps users' anatomy during natural sleep using a facial patch to determine the root cause of airway obstruction. It then offers effective therapies for each patient.

SOMNAR received Breakthrough Device Designation from the Food and Drug Administration in April. It is currently for investigational use only and is still pending FDA clearance. The new designation aims to help speed up development, assessment and review for premarket approval for medical devices, according to the FDA. It will also give Bairitone more opportunities to interact directly with FDA experts to make the approval process more efficient.

Bairitone was founded in 2022 in the Texas Medical Center's Biodesign program by Pitcher, CTO Onur Kilic and chief medical officer Britt Cross. It was a member of Activate Houston's inaugural cohort and has participated in numerous accelerators and incubators.

The company was a finalist for the Houston Innovation Awards in 2025 and 2024.

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