Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Houston Innovation Awards to honor Wade Pinder as 2025 Trailblazer

And the award goes to...

On Nov. 13, we'll gather for the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards to celebrate the best and brightest in Houston innovation right now. And, as is tradition with the annual program, we'll honor one longstanding Houston innovator with the Trailblazer Award.

The award was established to recognize an individual who has left a profound impact on Houston's business and innovation ecosystem and is dedicated to continuing to support Houston and its entrepreneurs. The recipient is selected by our esteemed panel of judges from a pool of internal and external recommendations.

The 2025 Trailblazer Award recipient is Wade Pinder of Product Houston. A familiar face to those active in Houston's innovation sector, Pinder identifies as an "Ecosystem Wayseeker" and is the founder of Product Houston.

Pinder, a former product manager at Blinds.com, arrived in Houston in 2008 and has been deeply engaged in Houston’s startup and innovation scene since 2012. Over the years, he has supported hundreds of founders, product leaders, and community builders across the Houston area.

In 2023, he was honored as Mentor of the Year in the Houston Innovation Awards. Today, he fosters collaboration, clarity, and connection through his work at Product Houston, and he helps innovators find their place in the local sector via his monthly "Houston Ecosystem Mapping" sessions.

Read below for Pinder's insightful takes on the Houston innovation scene and what it means to blaze a new trail. Then, join us as we celebrate Pinder and all of our nominees and winners at the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards on Nov. 13 at Greentown Labs. Tickets are available now.

InnovationMap: Describe the growth of the Houston innovation ecosystem from your arrival in 2008 to now.

Wade Pinder: When I first arrived in Houston in 2008, the innovation ecosystem was more fragmented than it is today. Connecting with other innovators often meant attending a lot of hit-or-miss events. Over the years, it’s been incredible to see the network take shape and grow into a true community. I’ve had the privilege of being involved with several coworking spaces and accelerator programs along the way, and it’s been especially exciting to see Station Houston evolve into what is now the Ion District. What makes the Ion unique is how it blends openness and opportunity… ideas spill into and out of the space, and anyone can walk in, participate in programming, and find themselves in proximity to people who might help them take the next steps.

Additionally, the expansion of spaces like Texas Medical Center Innovation, Helix Park, The Cannon, and many others, have broadened Houston’s innovation landscape in powerful ways.

Today, when someone new moves to Houston and wants to plug into the startup and innovation scene, it’s much easier for them to find their way than when I moved here in 2008. I think that’s something Houston can really be proud of.

IM: As someone who engages with the broader Houston innovation community on a regular basis, what are the shared characteristics and traits that you see among its members?

WP: One of the things that makes Houston’s innovation community unique is how deeply it’s rooted in industry. So many of the innovators I meet come from within Houston’s major sectors, and they’ve seen firsthand where opportunities lie, which gives their innovation a certain practicality. They’re developing solutions that solve real, often complex, business and industry problems, not chasing trends or trying to create the next flashy consumer app.

What I admire most is that this community is growing in its understanding of the value of collaboration. They work with the systems and expertise that already exist, and find better ways to make them work together. Another shared trait I see across Houston’s innovators is a deep sense of curiosity and a drive to question the status quo while looking for better ways to build, improve, and solve.

IM: You’ve said, "Houston has Houston problems, and Houston needs Houston solutions." How do you see this taking shape in the innovation sector right now?

WP: When I first started getting connected to Houston’s startup and innovation scene in 2012, I noticed folks had a tendency to look at other cities and ask, "How can we do what they did?" Back then, we saw phrases like "Silicon Bayou" pop up, and while that enthusiasm was hopeful, it often discounted the things that make Houston unique. Over time, I’ve come to believe that the better question is: "What are we already great at, and how can we innovate from there?" The flip side of that question is to reflect on the things that hold us back as an ecosystem… identifying the friction points and finding practical ways to smooth them out.

From my time wandering around our ecosystem, I’ve come to understand Houston is great at infrastructure at scale, solving life-and-death challenges in the global spotlight, and "boldly going where no one’s gone before." These three things, in my opinion, capture the essence of Houston does best: We do hard things here.

What excites me today is that we’re applying innovation to those core strengths in ways that feel authentically Houston. One area I’m especially excited about is the emergence of the “New Space Economy,” captured beautifully in Wogbe Ofori’s thought piece “The Astropreneur’s Startup Journey Map.” It's a great example of how the next wave of space-related innovation might connect to Houston’s long-standing strengths in manufacturing, logistics, and problem-solving at scale.

Another challenge Houston faces is what I call a "proximity problem." Even when events are only a few miles apart, traffic can make it difficult for people to stay connected across the city. That’s why I’m so encouraged by the rise of what I think of as "intent-based gatherings" around the city: events designed with purpose, where people know they’ll find real connection and value once they arrive.

IM: Finally, what does being a "Trailblazer" mean to you?
WP: To me, trailblazing in the Houston innovation ecosystem means being willing to wander through the many different corners of the community and look for value in places we often overlook. It’s about showing up at events, community meetings, and pitch competitions — not just to participate, but to notice how each of these "nodes" in the ecosystem connects and adds value to the others.

Sometimes the trailblazer only walks a trail once: as they are discovering it. If you can help others see a newfound trail’s purpose and potential, it becomes a path others can follow more easily in the future. That’s the real work of a trailblazer: mapping connections, framing their value, and helping people recognize how those pathways strengthen the ecosystem as a whole.

In a broader sense, trailblazing is about seeing things not just as they are, but as they could be. Then taking the steps, however small, that make that vision real.

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The Houston Innovation Awards program is sponsored by Houston Community College, Houston Powder Coaters, FLIGHT by Yuengling, and more to be announced soon. For sponsorship opportunities, please contact sales@innovationmap.com.

Houston-area VC funding sunk to 5-year low in Q3 2025, report says

by the numbers

Fundraising for Houston-area startups experienced a summertime slowdown, sinking to a five-year low in the third quarter, according to the latest PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.

The PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor shows startups in the Houston metro area attracted $204.4 million in venture capital from June through August. That’s 55 percent below the total for the previous quarter and 51 percent below the total for the third quarter of 2024.

More telling than those figures is that the third-quarter haul dropped to its lowest total for Houston-area startups since the fourth quarter of 2020, when $133.4 million in VC was raised. That was the third full quarter after health officials declared the pandemic in the U.S.

In Q3 2025, AI accounted for nearly 40 percent of VC deal volume in the U.S., Kyle Stanford, director of U.S. venture research at PitchBook, said in the report. And through the first nine months of 2025, AI represented 64 percent of U.S. deal value.

VC deal activity “has been nearly steady, emphasizing a consistent influx of companies, especially at the pre-seed and seed stages,” Stanford said. “Large deals remain the primary driver of market deal value, with almost all of these deals focused on AI.”

Bobby Franklin, president and CEO of NVCA, said that while fundraising hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic highs, deal values are going up in sectors such as AI, manufacturing, robotics and space tech, many of which have already exceeded their investment totals for all of 2024.

Meet 6 of the fastest-growing scaleup companies in Houston right now

meet the finalists

From raising funding rounds to earning FDA acceptance, some of Houston's most innovative companies have reached major milestones this year.

The 2025 Houston Innovation Awards will recognize their progress by bringing back our Scaleup of the Year category for the second year. The award honors an innovative later-stage startup that's recently reached a significant milestone in company growth.

Six breakthrough businesses have been named finalists for the 2025 award. They range from climatetech startups to a biotech company developing new drugs for neurodegenerative diseases and more.

Read more about these businesses and their impressive growth below. Then join us at the Houston Innovation Awards on Nov. 13 at Greentown Labs, when the winner will be unveiled at our live awards ceremony.

Tickets are now on sale for this exclusive event celebrating all things Houston Innovation. Corporate 10-packs, featuring reserved seating and custom branding, and individual tickets are still available. Secure your seats today.

Coya Therapeutics

Clinical-stage biotechnology company Coya Therapeutics (NASDAQ: COYA) has developed COYA-302 that enhances anti-inflammatory T cell function and suppresses harmful immune activity. The drug candidate is being advanced for several neurodegenerative diseases—including ALS, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and frontotemporal dementia—and has demonstrated promising reductions in neuroinflammation in preclinical and early clinical studies, according to the company.

Coya, founded in 2021, received FDA acceptance for its investigational new drug application for COYA-30 this summer. It closed its IPO in January 2023 for more than $15 million and added $26 million in PIPE funding that same year. Last year, the company secured an additional $15 million in PIPE funding.

Fervo Energy

Houston-based Fervo Energy is working to provide 24/7 carbon-free energy through the development of cost-competitive geothermal power. The company is developing its flagship Cape Station geothermal power project in Utah, which is expected to generate 400 megawatts of clean energy for the grid. The first phase of the project will supply 100 megawatts of power beginning in 2026. The second phase is scheduled to come online by 2028.

The company raised $205.6 million in capital to help finance the project earlier this year and fully contracted the project's capacity with the addition of a major power purchase agreement from Shell. Founded in 2017 by CEO Tim Latimer and CTO Jack Norbeck, Fervo is now a unicorn, meaning its valuation as a private company has surpassed $1 billion. In March, Axios reported Fervo is targeting a $2 billion to $4 billion valuation in an IPO.

Koda Health

Houston-based Koda Health has developed an advance care planning platform (ACP) that allows users to document and share their care preferences, goals and advance directives for health systems. The web-based platform guides patients through values-based decisions with interactive tools and generates state-specific, legally compliant documents that integrate seamlessly with electronic health record systems. The company also added kidney action planning to its suite of services for patients with serious illnesses last year.

Koda Health was founded out of the TMC's Biodesign Fellowship in 2020 by CEO Tatiana Fofanova, chief medical officer Dr. Desh Mohan, and chief technology officer Katelin Cherry. The company raised a $7 million series A earlier this year, and also announced major partnerships and integrations with Epic, Guidehealth, Medical Home Network, Privia Health and others.

Mati Carbon

Houston climatetech company Mati Carbon removes carbon through its Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) program that works with agricultural farms in Africa and India. Mati says the farmers it partners with are some of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The nonprofit won the $50 million grand prize in the XPRIZE Carbon Removal competition, backed by Elon Musk’s charitable organization, The Musk Foundation, earlier this year.

Mati Carbon scaled operations in India, Zambia, and Tanzania this year and has advanced its proprietary measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) platform, known as matiC, enabling seamless field data capture, chain-of-custody and carbon accounting at scale. The company was founded in 2022 by co-directors Shantanu Agarwal and Rwitwika Bhattacharya.

Molecule

Houston-based Molecule Software has developed an energy trading risk management (ETRM) platform that allows companies trading power, oil and gas, biofuels, renewables and more stay ahead as the markets evolve.

The company closed a Series B round earlier this year for an undisclosed amount. Sameer Soleja, founder and CEO of Molecule, said at the time that the funding would allow the company to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets." The company was founded in 2012 by CEO Sameer Soleja and participated in the Surge Accelerator the same year.

Utility Global

Houston-based Utility Global has developed its proprietary eXERO technology that produces low-cost, clean hydrogen from water and industrial off-gases without requiring grid electricity.

First founded in 2018 by CEO Parker Meeks, the company participated in Greentown Labs and the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship programs. It raised a $55 million funding round earlier this year and launched commercial partnerships with ArcelorMittal Brazil and Hanwha Group in South Korea to deploy its hydrogen solutions at scale.

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The Houston Innovation Awards program is sponsored by Houston Community College, Houston Powder Coaters, FLIGHT by Yuengling, and more to be announced soon. For sponsorship opportunities, please contact sales@innovationmap.com.

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