Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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New manufacturing facility breaks ground at NASA’s Johnson Space Center

making space

HITT Contracting has broken ground on NASA’s Applied Spaceflight Fabrication Facility (ASFF) at Johnson Space Center, the Washington, D.C.-based construction firm announced late last month.

The project, known as Building 70, will house a high-bay machine shop to support component production for future NASA space missions, according to HITT. The 37,625-square-foot building is the first part of a larger goal to create an engineering complex that unites assembly space, lab capabilities and manufacturing at JSC. It will consolidate machining equipment and operations that are currently spread across multiple campus buildings into one location.

The project broke ground in October at JSC’s Historic District. The Houston Business Journal reports construction is expected to wrap in August of 2028.

“This project will modernize facilities that support America’s space missions,” PJ Ross, chief financial officer at HITT, said in a LinkedIn post. “Proud of our team and partners as we begin construction that will advance aerospace testing and innovation.”

HITT Contracting is one of seven companies awarded infrastructure contracts by NASA earlier this year for work at JSC. According to NASA, the construction contracts “[support] up to $300 million in upgrades to mission‑support facilities, utilities, and equipment across the NASA Johnson campus.”

Construction Drive reports that HITT will also renovate Building 13 South on the JSC campus as part of the $300 million initiative.

“Building for precision manufacturing starts with understanding how the space needs to perform,” Todd Hudson, vice president at HITT Contracting, added in the release. “Our team brings the technical expertise and collaborative approach to deliver a facility that meets the Johnson Space Center’s needs today and supports the next generation of spaceflight innovation. We’re proud to continue our partnership with NASA.”

NASA also recently announced awards as part of its expanded Moon Base exploration, science and infrastructure capabilities. Houston-based Intuitive Machines and seven other spacetech companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Firefly Aerospace, were selected to receive funding.

The awards are part of the next phase of NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative, which will grant the companies a combined total of up to $10 billion over 10 years.

Intuitive Machines and Webster-based MEI Technologies were also awarded contracts this past summer from NASA to develop robots for exploring the surface of Mars. Read more here.

Meet 6 mentors guiding Houston’s next generation of startup founders

meet the finalists

Houston’s thriving startup ecosystem is supported by a network of experienced leaders who work behind the scenes, investing their time and knowledge to help the next generation of entrepreneurs succeed.

As part of the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, the Mentor of the Year category will honor an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs. They support promising startups in the medical tech, digital health, clean energy, hardware sectors and more.

Read more about these businesses, their founders and their breakthrough technologies below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Al Danto, Rice University

Al Danto is a senior lecturer in entrepreneurship at Rice University. He mentors undergraduate and graduate students at Rice and through the university's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lillie). He's also involved in the Houston Entrepreneurs Organization and Rice Veterans' Business Battle.

"[Mentoring] is very rewarding and fulfilling," Danto says. "[It] helps to me to pay back full circle over the incredible mentors I have had."

Eric Rubenstein, New Climate Ventures

Eric Rubenstein is managing partner at New Climate Ventures. He mentors startups through the clean energy-focused early-stage VC firm and also through the Breakthrough Energy Fellowship, Activate, Greentown Labs and Yale Ventures. Rubenstein has worked with numerous startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Rheom Materials, Bairitone Health, Pattern Materials and many others.

"Being a mentor is an important part of an innovation ecosystem," Rubenstein says. "Seeing founders succeed is rewarding, particularly if what they are building will meaningfully contribute to society. It is a way to give back that also builds community, as mentorship often involves introducing founders to other mentors, to potential investors and to potential customers. Just like the adage 'it takes a village' is used in reference to raising a child, the same adage applies to building a startup. That’s why we say 'let’s build.' Let’s build is inclusive because we do it together, as a community, even if the founders need to execute on a daily basis to make their vision a reality."

Jeremy Pitts, Activate

Jeremy Pitts serves as managing director of Activate Houston, which launched in Houston in 2024. He was one of the founders of Greentown Labs in the Boston area and served in a leadership role for the organization between 2011 and 2015. Through Activate, he has mentored numerous impactful startups and Innovation Awards finalists, including Solidec, Coflux Purification, Bairitone Health, Newfound Materials, Deep Anchor Solutions and others.

"Mentorship to me is all about selflessly supporting a person," Pitts says. "The person comes first--if you're not supporting the person, then their business needs don't matter. I'm there not to answer questions for people, but to help them gain the confidence and the capability to solve problems on their own. I am successful when my mentees are successful and happy, regardless of what their personal definition of success might look like."

Joe Alapat, Liongard

Joe Alapat founded and serves as chief strategy officer at Houston software company Liongard. He founded Startup Circle Houston and co-hosts Cybersecurity Circle, which both meet regularly at The Ion. He participates in Mercury Fund Day and has also mentored through Impact Hub Houston. He's worked with founders of FlowCare, Unytag, STEAM OnDemand, Lokum and many other early-stage startups.

"I compare being a mentor for startup founders to the Montessori method. ... Mentoring should not involve telling a founder what to do," Alapat says. "I see it as a founder whisperer approach that seeks to challenge the founder to think through their journey through different lenses and go on a journey of self-discovery while discovering the true market pain they are seeking to solve. The cherry on top is that the mentor gains as much as the mentee, so learning is happening for both. Ultimately, the meter of achievement with mentoring is seeing visible progress with the maturity of the founder and the degree of traction for their startup."

Kyle Judah, Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Kyle Judah is the executive director of Lilie, where he mentors pre-seed student startups. He also mentors through organizations like TEX-E, Greentown Labs, Activate and previously with MassChallenge. Some of the startups he's mentored include Helix Earth Technologies, Tierra Climate, Solidec, HexaSpec, SteerBio and many others.

"[Being a mentor] means helping to ensure that the most people possible have the best shot possible at making their company a successful reality," Judah says. "It means, at its root, opening the aperture for what is possible for people, by believing in them before anyone else even understands what their ambitions are. Because belief is the most infectious thing in the world. And before digging into the work in the trenches, most times founders need to kickstart their journey by having someone from the outside believe in them, when there's no real evidence to support that belief. So I guess, mentorship is a pure form of entrepreneurial faith."

Rachel Bickham, Bickham Services Unlimited LLC

Rachel Bickham is CEO of Bickham Services Unlimited, through which she mentors founders across a range of business stages and industries. She founded the organization in 2017. Bickham also mentors through The Affirmed Entrepreneur, a mentorship platform that she also launched. In 2024, she also began mentoring through the Goldman Sachs One Million Black Women: Black in Business program. Some of the startups she has worked with included Elaine Transportation, Nakira's World and NP Skills Made Easy, among others.

"Being a mentor means helping someone see what is possible while being honest about what it will take to get there," Bickham says. "It is not about giving generic advice or telling entrepreneurs what they want to hear. Sometimes mentorship means offering encouragement, and sometimes it means asking difficult questions that help someone avoid an expensive mistake. In both situations, my responsibility is to listen, share what I have learned, and help the entrepreneur make an informed decision. ... Being a mentor also means opening doors when I can—making introductions, inviting entrepreneurs into rooms they may not have entered on their own, and helping them build relationships that can change the direction of their businesses. It also means holding them accountable for what they said they wanted to accomplish. I do not measure successful mentorship by how often someone returns to me for an answer. I measure it by whether they become more confident, more strategic, and better equipped to make decisions on their own."

3 Houston incubators and accelerators fueling the growth of local startups

Meet the finalists

It takes a village to launch a business. That's where Houston's network of incubators and accelerators can step in, providing the resources, mentorship and community needed to push a fledgling company forward.

As part of our 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, the Incubator/Accelerator of the Year category honors a local organization that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups.

Three incubators and accelerators have been named finalists for the 2026 award. They support startups ranging from hard-tech companies to food and youth concepts.

Read more about these organizations below. The 2026 winners will be announced on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Activate

Hard tech incubator Activate supports scientists in "the outset of their entrepreneurial journey." The Houston hub was introduced in 2024, and joins others in Boston, New York, and Berkley, California—where Activate is headquartered. It named its third Houston cohort this summer.

The two-year program graduated its first class of Houston fellows in 2026 and saw its first alumni IPO from Houston-based Fervo Energy, which previously participated in a Berkley cohort. Nationally, it has supported 346 fellows and 276 companies since 2015. Those companies have raised more than $6 billion in follow-on funding, according to Activate. In Houston, it has supported Houston startups like Solidec, FlowCellutions and Orbital Arc. Activate Houston is led by managing director Jeremy Pitts, who co-founded Greentown Labs in Boston. It is based out of the Ion.

Impact Hub Houston

Impact Hub Houston supports early-stage ventures at various stages of development through innovative programs that address pressing societal issues. The nonprofit organization supports social impact startups through mentorship, connections and training opportunities.

There are more than 110 Impact Hubs globally with members spanning 72 countries. Launched in 2018, Impact Hub Houston says its membership tripled by the beginning of 2026. This year brought major milestones for the community, including the launch of its Ideas to Impact Accelerator, which supported 11 founders across the health, education, food systems, civic technology and workforce development sectors. It also received funding from more than 20 international Impact Hubs to develop SYNC, a collaboration platform that 25 Impact Hubs across five continents have committed to pilot. The organization has worked with local startups including Myoviva Health, The Change Lab and INNERVERSE Inc.

MarMo Innovation

Galveston-based business incubator MarMo Innovation is focused on removing barriers to entrepreneurship. It aims to provide affordable space, education, mentorship, market access, connections and real-world opportunities that help entrepreneurs move from idea to launch to sustainable growth. The "industry-agnostic" incubator was founded in 2022 and is led by Executive Director Erica Delgadillo.

This year, the organization moved from primarily serving as a coworking and community space into a more comprehensive entrepreneurial incubator by expanding its MarMo Market, MarMo Market Jr. and Lunch LineUp programs. A major focus for MarMo is food entrepreneurship. It is developing an Incubator Kitchen, which MarMo says will support programs like its Cottage to Commercial Bootcamp and Food Biz 101. The organization also expanded its board this year and says it is diversifying its revenue through memberships, events, markets, equipment and space rentals, sponsorships, grants and new entrepreneurial programming.

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