Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Houston lab-test startup seeks $1M for nationwide expansion

Testing Access

Health care industry veteran Jim Gebhart knew there had to be a better way for patients to access lab services, especially those with high health insurance deductibles or no insurance at all.

“This challenge became deeply personal when a close family member developed a serious illness, and we struggled to secure prompt appointments,” Gebhart tells InnovationMap. “It’s incredibly frustrating when a loved one cannot receive timely care simply because of provider shortages or the limited capacity of traditional clinics.”

Driven by the desire to knock down lab-test barriers, Gebhart founded Houston-based TheLabCafe.com in 2024. The platform provides access to low-cost medical tests without requiring patients to carry health insurance. TheLabCafe serves patients in six states: Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico and Oklahoma. Gebhart, the startup’s CEO, says that by the end of March, LabCafe will be offering services in 20 more states and the District of Columbia.

Gebhart has spent more than 30 years in the lab industry. His career includes stints at Austin-based Clinical Pathology Laboratories, Ohio’s Cleveland Clinic Laboratories and Secaucus, New Jersey-based Quest Diagnostics.

“Since nearly 80 percent of disease diagnoses rely on laboratory testing, I decided to leverage my background to create a more accessible, self-directed process for individuals to order blood and urine tests on their own terms — when and where they need them,” says Gebhart.

So far, Gebhart is self-funding the startup. But he plans to seek $700,000 to $1 million in outside investments in late 2026 to support the nationwide expansion and the introduction of more services.

TheLabCafe contracts with labs for an array of tests, such as cholesterol, hepatitis, metabolic, testosterone, thyroid and sexually transmitted infection (STI) tests. A cholesterol test obtained through TheLabCafe might cost $29, compared with a typical cost of perhaps $39 to $59 without insurance.

A health care professional reviews every test, both when the test is ordered and when the results are delivered, often within 24 hours. After receiving test results, a patient can schedule a virtual visit with a health care professional to go over the findings and learn potential treatment options.

Gebhart says TheLabCafe particularly benefits uninsured patients, including those in Texas. Among the states, Texas has the highest rate of uninsured residents. U.S. Census Bureau data shows 21.6 percent of adults and 13.6 percent of children in Texas lacked health insurance in 2024.

“Uninsured patients often pay the highest prices in the health care system,” Gebhart explains. “We address this by offering straightforward pricing and convenient access to testing without requiring insurance.”

“Our rates are intentionally set to remain affordable, helping individuals take a proactive approach to their health,” he adds. “Regular testing enables people to identify potential health issues early and track their progress as they make lifestyle changes. Ultimately, you can’t measure improvement without data — and laboratory results provide that data.”

Houston geothermal startup secures $97M Series B for next-gen power

fresh funding

Houston-based geothermal energy startup Sage Geosystems has closed its Series B fundraising round and plans to use the money to launch its first commercial next-generation geothermal power generation facility.

Ormat Technologies and Carbon Direct Capital co-led the $97 million round, according to a press release from Sage. Existing investors Exa, Nabors, alfa8, Arch Meredith, Abilene Partners, Cubit Capital and Ignis H2 Energy also participated, as well as new investors SiteGround Capital and The UC Berkeley Foundation’s Climate Solutions Fund.

The new geothermal power generation facility will be located at one of Ormat Technologies' existing power plants. The Nevada-based company has geothermal power projects in the U.S. and numerous other countries around the world. The facility will use Sage’s proprietary pressure geothermal technology, which extracts geothermal heat energy from hot dry rock, an abundant geothermal resource.

“Pressure geothermal is designed to be commercial, scalable and deployable almost anywhere,” Cindy Taff, CEO of Sage Geosystems, said in the news release. “This Series B allows us to prove that at commercial scale, reflecting strong conviction from partners who understand both the urgency of energy demand and the criticality of firm power.”

Sage reports that partnering with the Ormat facility will allow it to market and scale up its pressure geothermal technology at a faster rate.

“This investment builds on the strong foundation we’ve established through our commercial agreement and reinforces Ormat’s commitment to accelerating geothermal development,” Doron Blachar, CEO of Ormat Technologies, added in the release. “Sage’s technical expertise and innovative approach are well aligned with Ormat’s strategy to move faster from concept to commercialization. We’re pleased to take this natural next step in a partnership we believe strongly in.”

In 2024, Sage agreed to deliver up to 150 megawatts of new geothermal baseload power to Meta, the parent company of Facebook. At the time, the companies reported that the project's first phase would aim to be operating in 2027.

The company also raised a $17 million Series A, led by Chesapeake Energy Corp., in 2024.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

10+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events in February

where to be

Editor's note: February may be short, but its event calendar isn’t. From recurring monthly favorites to the return of annual celebrations and summits, here's what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional event listings.

Feb. 2 — Entrepreneurship Roundtable with OPEN

Join founders, builders and innovators as they explore what it takes to create, scale and sustain meaningful ventures. This event, hosted by Open Houston, will be moderated by Faisal Bhutto, president and CEO of Houston-based end-to-end IT and cybersecurity company Alykas.

This event is Monday, Feb. 2, from 11 a.m.-1 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 3 — Tech+Tequila Talk: Tax Equity: Aligning Incentives for Founders, Investors & Philanthropy

Hear from guest speaker Cesar de la Cerda, founder and CIO of EnvisionVest, at the latest installment of Tech and Tequila Talk. The event will focus on using the tax code as a powerful fundraising tool.

This event takes place Tuesday, Feb. 3, from 5-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 5 — Ion Block Party Mardi Gras

Let the good times roll while networking with potential collaborators, mentors and investors at the Ion. Food and drink will be available, and the Ion will provide drink tickets for one free drink at Second Draught upon check-in.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 5, from 4-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 10 — Mercury Fund Day at the Ion

The Ion and Houston's Mercury Fund will host this special event, previously known as Software Day. The event will feature a panel that dives into how Mercury is pushing the boundaries of what’s possible with agentic AI and blockchain. A select group of early-stage software startups will also participate in office hours before the panel. Afterwards, all attendees can network during happy hour at Second Draught.

This event is Tuesday, Feb. 10, from 3:30-7:30 p.m. Register here.

Feb. 11-12 – In-Space Physical AI Workshop

Rice Nexus is bringing together industry leaders, government agencies and academia to explore the cutting edge of AI in space exploration. Matt Ondler, president of Aegis Aerospace, will present the keynote address. Other industry leaders from NASA Johnson Space Center, Intuitive Machines, Microsoft and Rice University and other organizations will participate. The event will close with the Inaugural Space Galette Reception hosted by the Consulate General of France in Houston and the Rice Space Institute.

This event begins Wednesday, Feb. 11, at the Ion. Register here.

Feb. 12 — State of the City

Houston First Corporation and the Greater Houston Partnership will host Mayor John Whitmire’s State of the City luncheon. Whitmire will share an update on his administration’s progress since taking office and highlight his top priorities that will continue to elevate Houston and its economy.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 12, from 11 a.m.-1:30 p.m. at the Hilton Americas-Houston. Register here.

Feb. 12 — Positioning Houston as the Brain Capital of the World

David Gow, CEO of the Center for Houston's Future, will present "Positioning Houston as the Brain Capital of the World" at the University of Houston Honors College Leadership Forum. Gow will share how Project Metis aims to establish Houston as a global hub for brain health research, innovation and economic development.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 12, from 7:30-9:30 a.m. at The Junior League of Houston. Register here.

Feb. 13 — From Research to Enterprise: Immigration & Innovation

Innov8 Hub will host an in-person seminar as part of its Startup Resources Series, focused on the intersection of immigration law, entrepreneurship and technology commercialization. The session will feature guest speakers Mario Cantu, Shilpa Ghurye and Vikesh Patel of KM&D PLLC, who will share insights for founders and innovators navigating legal pathways while building and scaling technology-driven ventures.

The event is Friday, Feb. 13, from 1-2 p.m. at the Innovation Center at UH Technology Bridge, Building 4. Register here.

Feb. 18-20 — TMC AI Summit

UTHealth Houston and Texas Children’s Hospital are bringing back the TMC AI Summit for its third year. This event is focused on translating advanced AI innovations into practical, real-world solutions for the biomedical and healthcare industries. It will be broken up into three tracks and will feature poster and oral presentations, workshops and tutorials, industry talks and student research showcases.

The event begins Wednesday, Feb. 18, at the Duncan Neurological Research Institute. Register here.

Feb. 26 — Transition on Tap

Greentown Labs’ signature networking event returns in February to foster conversations and connections within Houston's climate and energy transition ecosystem. Entrepreneurs, investors, students, philanthropists and more are invited to attend, meet colleagues, discuss solutions and engage with the growing community.

The event begins Monday, Feb. 26, from 5:30-7:30 p.m. at Greentown Labs. Register here.

Feb. 26 — NASA Tech Talk

Every fourth Thursday of the month, NASA experts, including longtime engineer Montgomery Goforth, present on technology development challenges NASA’s Johnson Space Center and the larger aerospace community are facing, and how they can be leveraged by Houston’s innovation community. Stick around after for drinks and networking at Second Draught.

This event is Thursday, Feb. 26, from 6-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

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