Economists dive into the economic impact of COVID-19, low oil prices on Houston

double teamed

Coronavirus-caused closures have resulted in a nearly 30 percent drop in the county's daily economic output, according to a new report. Getty Images

Houston's economy continues to suffer as a result of the coronavirus-fueled economic slide and the collapse in oil prices. But just how much are these twin crises injuring Bayou City?

Economic data and forecasts present an increasingly grim outlook for Houston.

A new Moody's Analytics analysis commissioned by the Wall Street Journal provides one measurement of the economic damage being inflicted on Houston. The analysis, published April 2, indicates business closures in Harris County — which represents two-thirds of the region's population — have caused a 27 percent drop in the county's daily economic output.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says the 27 percent figure is likely lower than the actual number. He thinks it's closer to 50 percent.

"The reason is that we are talking about output — actual work getting done — and not including monetary transfers from the bailout bill or unemployment insurance," Hirs says.

The lingering daily decline undoubtedly will bring down the Houston area's total economic output for 2020. In 2018, the region's economic output (GDP) added up to nearly $478.8 billion. By comparison, the 2018 economic output for the nation of Austria totaled $455.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

Harris County ranks as the third largest county in the U.S., as measured by population. The Moody's Analytics study shows the country's two largest counties — Los Angeles County in California and Cook County in Illinois — have been hit with even bigger decreases in daily economic output. Los Angeles County's loss sits at 35 percent, with Cook County's at 30 percent.

Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, says in a podcast interview published April 2 that it's difficult to accurately gauge how the economic climate is hurting Houston right now. That's because economic data lags present-day economic reality.

"The situation is changing daily," Jankowski says. "There's so many unknowns out there. This is unprecedented."

Economists predict the Houston area's workforce will see massive losses as a result of the coronavirus and energy downturns.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could siphon as many as 44,000 jobs from the region's economy by the end of this year. A more dire forecast from The Perryman Group, a Waco-based economic analysis firm, envisions the Houston area losing nearly 256,000 jobs due to the COVID-19 shutdown and racking up $27 billion in coronavirus-related economic losses.

Jankowski anticipates the Houston area tallying job losses of at least 200,000, meaning losses would be less severe than the 1980s energy bust but more severe than the Great Recession.

"If we're still working from home after May, everyone's job is at risk," says Jankowski, adding that this would trigger more furloughs, layoffs, and pay cuts.

Aggravating Houston's situation is the coronavirus clampdown on restaurants and hotels.

According to survey data released March 30 by the Texas Restaurant Association, 2 percent of the state's more than 50,000 restaurants already had closed permanently, and another 32 percent had closed temporarily. An additional 12 percent of Texas restaurants anticipated shutting down within the next 30 days.

If you add the 2 percent of restaurants that have closed to the 12 percent that expect to close, that would equal roughly 7,000 shuttered restaurants.

"Restaurants are in a fight for survival. The statistics from this survey provide a mere snapshot of the extreme economic impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on one of the most important industries in Texas," Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, says in a release.

In the lodging sector, Texas is projected to lose 44 percent of its jobs, or more than 64,000 positions, according to a mid-March forecast from the American Hotel & Lodging Association. Experts predict some Texas hotels won't survive the coronavirus crisis.

"COVID-19 has been especially devastating for the hotel industry. Every day, more hotels are closing, and more employees are out of a job," Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the hotel association, says in a March 26 release.

While the restaurant and hotel sectors face a shaky future, the energy industry is grappling with the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as depressed demand for crude oil and gasoline. Jankowski says gas prices could stay low through mid-2020 or even the end of 2020 as the energy industry copes with a prolonged oil glut.

Relief funds coming from Washington, D.C., will help stabilize the energy sector and other industries, Jankowski says, but will not "juice" the economy and spark growth.

"We're going to need to move beyond the pandemic," he says, "and we're going to need for some consumer confidence and business confidence to come back before we start to see growth returning again."

According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

COVID-19 could cost Houston 44,000 jobs by the end of the year, says local economist

hits keep coming

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."

The rodeo has shut down prematurely due to the rising threat of coronavirus. Photo courtesy of Rodeo Houston

Rodeo Houston shuts down due to coronavirus concerns, city prepares for economic impact

it's canceled

As the coronavirus continues to march across the country, the City of Houston and the Houston Health Department on March 11 ordered the shutdown of this year's Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. This stems from Houston and Harris County declaring at least a seven-day health emergency in response to a potential community-spread case of the virus in Montgomery County.

The premature halt to this year's rodeo promises to ripple through the Houston economy. The 2019 version created a local economic impact of $227 million, according to a study commissioned by the rodeo. By comparison, Austin's annual music, film, and tech event — SXSW — generated an economic impact of $355.9 million in 2019. On March 6, the City of Austin ordered cancelation of this year's SXSW, set for March 13 to 22.

The Houston Rodeo and Livestock Show joins a rapidly growing list of events around the world that have been canceled or postponed.

Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, says it's hard to gauge the economic damage from the rodeo cutback, but he guesses it could range from $50 million to $100 million. Among those who will feel the pain are rodeo vendors, Uber and Lyft drivers, waiters and waitresses, and hotel employees, he says.

"We can't replace the income that the workers have lost," Hirs says.

The loss of rodeo revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Houston.

The earlier coronavirus-related cancelation of CERAWeek, the major energy conference, likely will cost the Houston economy millions of dollars. Last year, CERAWeek hosted 5,500 attendees. Cancelation of other local events could inflict even more financial harm.

Meanwhile, the Houston energy sector is coping with a huge drop in oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel now projects near-zero growth in oil demand this year, according to OilPrice.com.

Hirs says that as early as the end of this week, some energy employers in Houston could begin layoffs. On March 11, Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. hinted at impending layoffs. The oil and gas exploration and production company said it was slashing capital spending for 2020 from a range of $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion to a range of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. In addition, Occidental said it would carry out "additional operating and corporate cost reductions."

Occidental's market value has plummeted to $11 billion, triggering speculation that billionaire Warren Buffett might weigh a buyout of the company. In August, Occidental wrapped up its $55 billion purchase of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., based in The Woodlands.

According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the Houston area is home to more than 600 energy exploration and production companies, 1,100 oilfield services companies, and more than 180 pipeline transportation establishments. In all, the energy industry employs more than 237,000 people in the region.

The combination of the oil slump, the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing trade war, and other economic drawbacks could push Houston closer to a recession, Hirs says.

"We were heading toward a recession anyway," he says of Houston and the entire country. "I think the coronavirus has tipped it over the edge."

For now, the most immediate economic blow comes from the rodeo shutdown.

In a March 11 statement, the rodeo indicates it's "respectfully and dutifully" following the city's order. The rodeo began March 3 at NRG Stadium and was supposed to end March 22. Last February 21 to March 17, rodeo activities attracted more than 2.5 million visitors.

Rodeo officials say they're working on a process for refunding tickets.

Government officials say an apparent case of coronavirus in Montgomery County prompted cancelation of the rodeo. In this case, the person — who reportedly attended a rodeo-sponsored barbecue cook off February 28 — seems to have contracted coronavirus somewhere in the community rather than as a result of international travel.

In a statement, Bob Harvey, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, says the organization supports the declaration of a health emergency and the subsequent decision to end the rodeo early.

"It is important that we, as a community, take extra precautions and minimize opportunities for exposure as much as possible to slow the growth in the number of coronavirus cases," Harvey says.

Harvey praises the closure of the rodeo as "the right thing to do."

"As Houston's largest annual event, the Rodeo is a point of pride for our region. We regret the impact this necessary step will have on Rodeo exhibitors, guests, and participants," he says. "But the health and safety of our community must come first."

As of March 11, officials reported 14 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus in the Houston area.

The rodeo says it's "deeply saddened" by the shutdown. However, it adds, "the safety and well-being of our guests and our community is our top priority."

Among the major musical acts whose rodeo performances are now canceled include Lizzo, Dierks Bentley, Keith Urban, Gwen Stefani, Khalid, Chris Stapleton, Brad Paisley, and Luke Bryan.

"We look forward to the 2021 Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to continue to promote agriculture, education, entertainment, and Western heritage," according to the rodeo's statement.

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Texas is the 7th hardest working state in America for 2026, says report

Labor Day Report

Texans pride themselves on being industrious, and a new report has confirmed Texas as one of the 10 most hardworking states in America in 2026.

The Lone Star State claimed the No. 7 spot this year in a slight dip from its 2025 ranking, where it appeared in the top five. Texas last ranked 7th in 2024, but the state has consistently appeared among the top 10 for nearly a decade.

WalletHub determined the rankings after analyzing 10 "direct" and "indirect" work factors across all 50 states, and then graded each metric on a 100-point scale, where a score of 100 signified the "hardest working." Analysts then examined each state’s weighted average across all metrics to calculate its overall score and used the resulting scores to rank-order the states.

There was only a 10.32-point difference between Texas and South Dakota, who claimed the top spot as America's hardest working state in 2026 with a score of 64.59 out of a possible 100 points.

Texas ranked 6th nationally in the "direct" work factors category, which examined the following six metrics:

The state's average workweek hours.
Employment rates.
The share of households where no adults work.
The share of workers leaving vacation time unused.
The share of "engaged" workers — those that are "involved in, enthusiastic about, and committed to their work and workplace," as defined by Gallup.
The rate of "idle youth" — individuals aged 18-24 who are not currently enrolled in school, not working, and have no degree beyond a high school diploma or GED.

Texas ties with Louisiana for the second highest average workweek hours nationwide, with Alaska topping the list with the No. 1 longest workweeks in America. Alaska is the only state where workers clock in more than 40 hours per week at their jobs, with WalletHub reporting Alaskans work 41.4 hours on average weekly.

In the "indirect" work factors category — which encompassed workers' average commute times, the share of workers with multiple jobs, annual volunteer hours per resident, and the average leisure time spent per day — Texas ranked 36th nationwide.

Here's how WalletHub ranked Texas in three individual metrics:

No. 10 – Average commute times
No. 20 – Average leisure time spent per day
No. 30 – Employment rates

According to the World Economic Forum, Americans clock in about 1,800 hours at work per year on average, which is 468 more hours per year than workers in Germany. And many are leaving vacation time on the table, WalletHub says.

"Even when given the chance to take time off, many Americans won’t, as nearly half of workers don't expect to use all of their allotted vacation days," the report said. "It is possible to work hard without overdoing it, though. Hard work is key to success, and the residents of some states understand that better than others."

The top 10 hardest working states in America in 2026 are:

No. 1 – South Dakota
No. 2 – North Dakota
No. 3 – Alaska
No. 4 – Hawaii
No. 5 – Wyoming
No. 6 – Nebraska
No. 7 – Texas
No. 8 – New Hampshire
No. 9 – Tennessee
No. 10 – Georgia

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston ranks No. 3 among rising coding markets in U.S.

city code

When you think of coders—the wizards who design, write and test programming languages for software and mobile apps—tech hotbeds like Silicon Valley and Austin might pop into your head.

But Houston has earned a spot on the coding map.

A new study puts the Houston area in third place among the fastest-growing metros for coding in the U.S.

The study, published by coding platform Coddy Tech, ranks Albuquerque, New Mexico, as the top on-the-rise market for coding. San Antonio sits in second place.

Houston earned a “momentum score” of 77 out of 100. The momentum category measured job growth for developers, rising interest in coding as measured by online searches, and growth in hackathon activity.

Here are the 10 fastest-rising U.S. metros for coding:

No. 1 Albuquerque, New Mexico
No. 2 San Antonio
No. 3 Houston
No. 4 Jacksonville, Florida
No. 5 Cape Coral, Florida
No. 6 Columbia, South Carolina
No. 7 New York City
No. 8 Salt Lake City
No. 9 North Port, Florida
No. 10 Tampa, Florida

The study analyzed the country’s 75 largest metros “to map where coding has taken hold and where it’s catching fire.” It took into account learning searches, GitHub developer density, job growth, interest in bootcamps and hackathon activity. Only 64 metros were eligible for the ranking of fastest-growing markets.

Austin tops ranking of coding capitals

Coddy crowned Austin the coding capital of the country, with Houston landing at No. 24 in the ranking of the most established coding hubs. San Antonio appeared at No. 16 and Dallas at No. 22.

Here are the top 10 coding hubs:

No. 1 Austin
No. 2 San Jose, California
No. 3 Seattle
No. 4 San Francisco
No. 5 New York City
No. 6 Salt Lake City
No. 7 Denver
No. 8 San Diego
No. 9 Los Angeles
No. 10 Raleigh, North Carolina

Why do coders matter?

Without coders, cellphones, laptops, smart TVs and other devices might not work well — or at all. Coding allows people to communicate with these devices, according to ComputerScience.org.

“Since computers do not communicate like humans, coding acts as a translator,” ComputerScience.org explains. “Code converts human input into numerical sequences that computers understand.”

NASA awards Texas Space Commission role in $10M aerospace workforce initiative

space hub

The Texas Space Commission is one of seven organizations tapped by NASA to lead the space agency's new state and regional Skilled Technical Workforce Hubs.

The $10.5 million initiative aims to help foster the next generation of skilled workers in the aerospace industry.

Through the new program, the hubs will work together over the next three years to meet growing industry needs by aligning “industry employers, community colleges, high school career and technical education programs, and workforce systems,” according to a news release from NASA.

It aims to create clear pathways for workers in technical jobs, like welding, electrical work and machining, plus other jobs that require advanced STEM knowledge but do not require a bachelor’s degree.

“The need for technical talent is already urgent and will only continue to grow as we return humanity to the Moon and set our sights on Mars and beyond,” Elaine Ho, associate administrator for the Office of STEM Engagement at NASA, said in the release. “NASA is uniquely positioned to be the catalyst and convener that accelerates America’s aerospace workforce development and fosters the next generation of technicians.”

As part of the initiative, the TSC plans to launch the statewide network known as the Texas Space STEM Alliance (TSSA). According to a TSC release, the TSSA will link up schools, colleges, workforce groups and aerospace companies to build a pipeline for space-industry workers.

Additionally, the TSC is developing the Texas Aerospace Pathways Plus (TAP+) portal to consolidate information on training programs, internships, apprenticeships, employment opportunities and scholarships, while also identifying regional gaps in workforce opportunities.

Other state and regional organizations to receive the award include:

Antelope Valley Community College District in Lancaster, California
Georgia Tech Research Corporation
Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
Southern Utah University
Space Florida
State Board for Community Colleges and Occupation Education, Arapahoe Community College in Littleton, Colorado

The Houston area is home to more than 43,000 aerospace and aviation professionals, according to the Greater Houston Partnership. The Texas Space Commission has been awarded $150 million for 24 projects since being established to increase the state’s space economy in 2023.

The funding for the NASA state hubs comes from NASA’s Office of STEM Engagement through its Next Gen STEM Project.

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