Using biased statistics in hiring makes it more difficult to predict job performance. Photo via Getty Images

The Latin phrase scientia potentia est translates to “knowledge is power.”

In the world of business, there’s a school of thought that takes “knowledge is power” to an extreme. It’s called statistical discrimination theory. This framework suggests that companies should use all available information to make decisions and maximize profits, including the group characteristics of potential hires — such as race and gender — that correlate with (but do not cause) productivity.

Statistical discrimination theory suggests that if there's a choice between equally qualified candidates — let's say, a man and a woman — the hiring manager should use gender-based statistics to the company's benefit. If there's data showing that male employees typically have larger networks and more access to professional development opportunities, the hiring manager should select the male candidate, believing such information points to a more productive employee.

Recent research suggests otherwise.

A peer-reviewed study out of Rice Business and Michigan Ross undercuts the premise of statistical discrimination theory. According to researchers Diana Jue-Rajasingh (Rice Business), Felipe A. Csaszar (Michigan) and Michael Jensen (Michigan), hiring outcomes actually improve when decision-makers ignore statistics that correlate employee productivity with characteristics like race and gender.

Here's Why “Less is More”

Statistical discrimination theory assumes a correlation between individual productivity and group characteristics (e.g., race and gender). But Jue-Rajasingh and her colleagues highlight three factors that undercut that assumption:

  • Environmental uncertainty
  • Biased interpretations of productivity
  • Decision-maker inconsistency

This third factor plays the biggest role in the researchers' model. “For statistical discrimination theory to work,” Jue-Rajasingh says, “it must assume that managers are infallible and decision-making conditions are optimal.”

Indeed, when accounting for uncertainty, inconsistency and interpretive bias, the researchers found that using information about group characteristics actually reduces the accuracy of job performance predictions.

That’s because the more information you include in the decision-making process, the more complex that process becomes. Complex processes make it more difficult to navigate uncertain environments and create more space for managers to make mistakes. It seems counterintuitive, but when firms use less information and keep their processes simple, they are more accurate in predicting the productivity of their hires.

The less-is-more strategy is known as a “heuristic.” Heuristics are simple, efficient rules or mental shortcuts that help decision-makers navigate complex environments and make judgments more quickly and with less information. In the context of this study, published by Organization Science, the heuristic approach suggests that by focusing on fewer, more relevant cues, managers can make better hiring decisions.

Two Types of Information "Cues"

The “less is more” heuristic works better than statistical discrimination theory largely because decision makers are inconsistent in how they weight the available information. To factor for inconsistency, Jue-Rajasingh and her colleagues created a model that reflects the “noise” of external factors, such as a decision maker’s mood or the ambiguity of certain information.

The model breaks the decision-making process into two main components: the environment and the decision maker.

In the environment component, there are two types of information, or “cues,” about job candidates. First, there’s the unobservable, causal cue (e.g., programming ability), which directly relates to job performance. Second, there's the observable, discriminatory cue (e.g., race or gender), which doesn't affect how well someone can do the job but, because of how society has historically worked, might statistically seem connected to job skills.

Even if the decision maker knows they shouldn't rely too much on information like race or gender, they might still use it to predict productivity. But job descriptions change, contexts are unstable, and people don’t consistently consider all variables. Between the inconsistency of decision-makers and the environmental noise created by discriminatory cues, it’s ultimately counterproductive to consider this information.

The Bottom Line

Jue-Rajasingh and her colleagues find that avoiding gender- and race-based statistics improves the accuracy of job performance predictions. The fewer discriminatory cues decision-makers rely on, the less likely their process will lead to errors.

That said: With the advent of AI, it could become easier to justify statistical discrimination theory. The element of human inconsistency would be removed from the equation. But because AI is often rooted in biased data, its use in hiring must be carefully examined to prevent worsening inequity.

------

This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom based on research by Rice University's Diana Jue-Rajasingh, Felipe A. Csaszar (Michigan) and Michael Jensen (Michigan). For more, see Csaszar, et al. “When Less is More: How Statistical Discrimination Can Decrease Predictive Accuracy.”

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Texas plugs in among states at highest risk for summer power outages in 2025

hot, hot, hot

Warning: Houston could be in for an especially uncomfortable summer.

A new study from solar energy company Wolf River Electric puts Texas at No. 2 among the states most at risk for power outages this summer. Michigan tops the list.

Wolf River Electric analyzed the number of large-scale outages that left more than 5,000 utility customers, including homes, stores and schools, without summertime electricity from 2019 to 2023. During that period, Texas experienced 7,164 summertime power outages.

Despite Michigan being hit with more summertime outages, Texas led the list of states with the most hours of summertime power outages — an annual average of 35,440. That works out to 1,477 days. “This means power cuts in Texas tend to last longer, making summer especially tough for residents and businesses,” the study says.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the electric grid serving 90 percent of the state, predicts its system will set a monthly record for peak demand this August — 85,759 megawatts. That would exceed the current record of 85,508 megawatts, dating back to August 2023.

In 2025, natural gas will account for 37.7 percent of ERCOT’s summertime power-generating capacity, followed by wind (22.9 percent) and solar (19 percent), according to an ERCOT fact sheet.

This year, ERCOT expects four months to surpass peak demand of 80,000 megawatts:

  • June 2025 — 82,243 megawatts
  • July 2025 — 84,103 megawatts
  • August 2025 — 85,759 megawatts
  • September 2025 — 80,773 megawatts

One megawatt is enough power to serve about 250 residential customers amid peak demand, according to ERCOT. Using that figure, the projected peak of 85,759 megawatts in August would supply enough power to serve more than 21.4 million residential customers in Texas.

Data centers, artificial intelligence and population growth are driving up power demand in Texas, straining the ERCOT grid. In January, ERCOT laid out a nearly $33 billion plan to boost power transmission capabilities in its service area.

Houston ranks among top 5 cities for corporate HQ relocations in new report

h-town HQ

The Houston area already holds the title as the country’s third biggest metro hub for Fortune 500 headquarters, behind the New York City and Chicago areas. Now, Houston can tout another HQ accolade: It’s in a fourth-place tie with the Phoenix area for the most corporate headquarters relocations from 2018 to 2024.

During that period, the Houston and Phoenix areas each attracted 31 corporate headquarters, according to new research from commercial real estate services company CBRE. CBRE’s list encompasses public announcements from companies across various sizes and industries about relocating their corporate headquarters within the U.S.

Of the markets included in CBRE’s study, Dallas ranked first for corporate relocations (100) from 2018 to 2024. It’s followed by Austin (81), Nashville (35), Houston and Phoenix (31 each), and Denver (23).

According to CBRE, reasons cited by companies for moving their headquarters include:

  • Access to lower taxes
  • Availability of tax incentives
  • Proximity to key markets
  • Ability to support hybrid work

“Corporations now view headquarters locations as strategic assets, allowing for adaptability and faster reaction to market changes,” said CBRE.

Among the high-profile companies that moved their headquarters to the Houston area from 2018 to 2024 are:

  • Chevron
  • ExxonMobil
  • Hewlett-Packard Enterprise
  • Murphy Oil

Many companies that have shifted their headquarters to the Houston area, such as Chevron, are in the energy sector.

“Chevron’s decision to relocate its headquarters underscores the compelling advantages that position Houston as the prime destination for leading energy companies today and for the future,” Steve Kean, president and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, said in 2024. “With deep roots in our region, Chevron is a key player in establishing Houston as a global energy leader. This move will further enhance those efforts.”

According to CBRE, California (particularly the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles areas) lost the most corporate HQs in 2024, with 17 companies announcing relocations—12 of them to Texas. Also last year, Texas gained nearly half of all state-to-state relocations.

In March, Site Selection magazine awarded Texas its 2024 Governor’s Cup, resulting in 13 consecutive wins for the state with the most corporate relocations and expansions.

In a news release promoting the latest Governor’s Cup victory, Gov. Greg Abbott hailed Texas as “the headquarters of headquarters.”

“Texas partners with the businesses that come to our great state to grow,” Abbott said. “When businesses succeed, Texas succeeds.”

CBRE explained that the trend of corporate HQ relocations reflects the desire of companies to seek new environments to support their goals and workforce needs.

“Ultimately, companies are seeking to establish themselves in locations with potential for long-term success and profitability,” CBRE said.

SpaceX test rocket explodes in Texas, but no injuries reported

SpaceX Update

A SpaceX rocket being tested in Texas exploded Wednesday night, sending a dramatic fireball high into the sky.

The company said the Starship “experienced a major anomaly” at about 11 pm while on the test stand preparing for the 10th flight test at Starbase, SpaceX’s launch site at the southern tip of Texas.

“A safety clear area around the site was maintained throughout the operation and all personnel are safe and accounted for,” SpaceX said in a statement on the social platform X.

CEO Elon Musk ’s SpaceX said there were no hazards to nearby communities. It asked people not to try to approach the site.

The company said it is working with local officials to respond to the explosion.

The explosion comes on the heels of an out-of-control Starship test flight in late May, which tumbled out of control. The FAA demanded an investigation into the accident.