Grocery purchase data can accurately predict credit risk for individuals without traditional credit scores, potentially broadening the pool of qualified loan applicants. Photo via Unsplash

Millions of consumers who apply for a loan to buy a house or car or start a business can’t qualify — even if they’re likely to pay it back. That’s because many lack a key piece of financial information: a credit score.

The problem isn’t just isolated to emerging economies. Exclusion from the financial system is a major issue in the United States, too, where some 45 million adults may be denied access to loans because they don’t have a credit history and are “credit invisible.”

To improve access to loans and peoples’ economic mobility, lenders have started looking into alternative data sources to assess a loan applicant’s risk of defaulting. These include bank account transactions and on-time rental, utility and mobile phone payments.

A new article by Rice Business assistant professor of marketing Jung Youn Lee and colleagues from Notre Dame and Northwestern identifies an even more widespread data source that could broaden the pool of qualified applicants: grocery store receipts.

As metrics for predicting credit risk, the researchers found that the types of food, drinks and other products consumers buy, and how they buy them, are just as good as a traditional credit score.

“There could be privacy concerns when you think about it in practice,” Lee says, “so the consumer should really have the option and be empowered to do it.” One approach could be to let consumers opt in to a lender looking at their grocery data as a second chance at approval rather than automatically enrolling them and offering an opt-out.

To arrive at their findings, the researchers analyzed grocery transaction data from a multinational conglomerate headquartered in a Middle Eastern country that owns a credit card issuer and a large-scale supermarket chain. Many people in the country are unbanked. They merged the supermarket’s loyalty card data and issuer’s credit card spending and payment history numbers, resulting in data on 30,089 consumers from January 2017 to June 2019. About half had a credit score, 81% always paid their credit card bills on time, 12% missed payments periodically, and 7% defaulted.

The researchers first created a model to establish a connection between grocery purchasing behavior and credit risk. They found that people who bought healthy foods like fresh milk, yogurt and fruits and vegetables were more likely to pay their bills on time, while shoppers who purchased cigarettes, energy drinks and canned meat tended to miss payments. This held true for “observationally equivalent” individuals — those with similar income, occupation, employment status and number of dependents. In other words, when two people look demographically identical, the study still finds that they have different credit risks.

People’s grocery-buying behaviors play a factor in their likelihood to pay their bills on time, too. For example, cardholders who consistently paid their credit card bill on time were more likely to shop on the same day of the week, spend similar amounts across months and buy the same brands and product categories.

The researchers then built two credit-scoring predictive algorithms to simulate a lender’s decision of whether or not to approve a credit card applicant. One excludes grocery data inputs, and the other includes them (in addition to standard data). Incorporating grocery data into their decision-making process improved risk assessment of an applicant by a factor of 3.11% to 7.66%.

Furthermore, the lender in the simulation experienced a 1.46% profit increase when the researchers implemented a two-stage decision-making process — first, screening applicants using only standard data, then adding grocery data as an additional layer.

One caveat to these findings, Lee and her colleagues warn, is that the benefit of grocery data falls sharply as traditional credit scores or relationship-specific credit histories become available. This suggests the data could be most helpful for consumers new to credit.

Overall, however, this could be a win-win scenario for both consumers and lenders. “People excluded from the traditional credit system gain access to loans,” Lee says, “and lenders become more profitable by approving more creditworthy people.”

------

This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom based on research by Rice University's Jung Youn Lee, Joonhyuk Yang (Notre Dame) and Eric Anderson (Northwestern). “Using Grocery Data for Credit Decisions.” Forthcoming in Management Science. 2024: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02364.


Give credit where credit is due. The Woodlands falls in the "very good" category. Photo courtesy of Local Government Federal Credit Union

Houston suburbs charge ahead with some of the highest credit scores in Texas

fit for fico

Give the residents of The Woodlands some credit. They’re able to brag about achieving some of the highest credit scores in Texas.

A new study from personal finance website WalletHub shows the median credit score of a Woodlands resident is 757. Among the 2,572 U.S. cities covered in the study, The Woodlands nabs a 287th-place tie for cities with the highest median credit score.

FICO, the primary producer of credit scores in the U.S., characterizes 757 as a “very good” credit score. On the FICO scale, credit scores range from 300 to 850. A credit score anywhere from 740 to 799 is above the U.S. average “and demonstrates to lenders that the borrow is very dependable,” according to FICO.

WalletHub based the study on September 2021 data from TransUnion, one of the three major credit-reporting bureaus. In the study, The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, is the only city where the median credit score is above 800 — 806, to be exact.

Two other Houston-area suburbs — Montgomery and Friendswood — ranked among Texas cities for the highest credit scores, coming in with a median credit score of 738 and 732, respectively.

Here are the other cities in the top 15 statewide:

  • Colleyville (Dallas-Fort Worth), 777, 23rd nationally.
  • Flower Mound, 762, tied for 185th place nationally.
  • Coppell (Dallas-Fort Worth), 758, tied for 262nd place nationally.
  • The Woodlands (Houston), 757, tied for 287th nationally.
  • Keller (Dallas-Fort Worth), 756, tied for 300th nationally.
  • Allen (Dallas-Fort Worth), 750, tied for 428th nationally.
  • Georgetown (Austin), 749, tied for 446th nationally.
  • Frisco (Dallas-Fort Worth), 748, tied for 467th nationally.
  • Cedar Park (Austin), 743, tied for 568th nationally.
  • Plano (Dallas-Fort Worth), 740, tied for 629th nationally.
  • Montgomery (Houston), 738, tied for 681st nationally.
  • Friendswood (Houston), 732, tied for 784th nationally.
  • Rockwall (Dallas-Fort Worth), 732, tied for 784th nationally.

Among Texas’ biggest cities, Austin is the only one where the median credit score exceeds 700. In the Capital City, the median score is 713, tied for 1,208th nationally. San Antonio is next in line, at 664 (tied for 2,236th nationally), followed by Houston (662, tied for 2281st nationally), Dallas (661, tied for 2,299th nationally), and Fort Worth (615.5, tied for 2,545th nationally).

Bad news for Sugar Land, which is the only Texas city with a median credit score below 600. According to the study, the median score there is 571, putting it in 2,563rd place nationally. FICO identifies that as a “poor” credit score.

J. Keith Baker, a CPA and certified financial planner who teaches at Dallas College’s North Lake campus in Irving, tells WalletHub that the best way to improve or maintain your credit score is to pay your credit card balances in full every month.

“Some folks will close a credit card account thinking it will help them manage their spending and protect them from identity theft since they are not using an account,” Baker says. “While this may make sense for an individual’s financial situation, do not assume it will automatically improve your credit scores.”

------

This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Houston's surge in new startups cools since pandemic peak, study shows

by the numbers

Startup activity in the Houston metro area has dipped since its pandemic peak, according to a new study.

Dating back to 2005, the volume of applications to form new businesses in the Houston area hit its highest level in 2021 (151,804). Since then, though, the application volume has fallen, according to the study, conducted by business debt collection agency The Kaplan Group. Here's the breakdown from the last few years:

  • Applications dropped to 130,011 in 2022
  • Climbed to 145,926 in 2023
  • Dropped again to 138,595 in 2024

Looking at the Houston area’s figures another way, the 2024 total surpassed the 2015-19 average by roughly 60 percent to 90 percent, the study shows.

Dallas-Fort Worth has seen similar startup declines (162,312 in 2021 vs. 153,378 in 2024), but the San Antonio metro area recorded higher application volume in 2023 and 2024 (37,412 and 35,798, respectively) than it did in 2021 (34,208).

The story is different in the Austin metro area. Application volume in 2023 and 2024 (53,200 and 59,190, respectively) exceeded the 2021 total (47,106).

The picture for startup activity in Texas’ four major metros deviates from the nationwide picture.

“America’s real viral trend is entrepreneurship,” says The Kaplan Group. “New business formations are reaching an all-time high across the country.”

In the U.S., per-month business formations soared 435 percent from 2004 (89,561) to 2025 (478,805), the study says.

Amid the growth of startup activity, business bankruptcies in the U.S. have plummeted almost 74 percent since 2004, according to The Kaplan Group.

“The country’s business scene has grown both more resilient and more ambitious in the past two decades,” the collection agency says.

12+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for September

where to be

Editor's note: Houston's business and innovation events are back in session. From the return of Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week to a send-off for an impactful innovation leader and several health conferences, here's what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional event listings.

Sept. 5-7 — Houston Hackathon

Impact Hub Houston is bringing back the Houston Hacakthon this month, where developers of all skill sets can work together to propose solutions to some of the Bayou City’s most pressing issues. The event is focused on ideating, designing, and developing both policy-based and tech solutions to improve Houston.

This event starts Saturday, Sept. 5, at noon at the Ion. Register here.

Sept. 8 — Community Celebration: A Send-Off for Paul Cherukuri

Come out to the Ion to celebrate Paul Cherukuri, Rice’s first chief innovation officer, whose visionary leadership has left a lasting impact on Houston’s innovation ecosystem. Cherukuri is leaving the university to accept a position at the University of Virginia. Hear remarks from Cherukuri and enjoy a networking reception following the talk.

This event is Monday, Sept. 8, from 2:30-5:00 p.m. at the Ion. Register here

Sept. 11 — Houston Methodist Leadership Speaker Series – Dr. Evan Collins

The Houston Methodist Tech Hub at the Ion will host its recurring leadership speaker series, this time featuring Dr. Evan Collins, chief of the Houston Methodist Hand & Upper Extremity Center at Houston Methodist and the Houston Methodist Center for Innovation's first innovator-in-residency. Collins will present on the creative process of innovation.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 11, from 4:45-6 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Sept. 12 — Future of Space

The Greater Houston Partnership’s 2025 Future of Space event will feature a keynote address by Vanessa E. Wyche, acting associate administrator of NASA. In her new role, Wyche serves as NASA’s chief operating officer, leading more than 18,000 employees and overseeing an annual budget exceeding $25 billion. Discussions will highlight how Houston’s space ecosystem is driving economic growth, technological innovation and new opportunities across the region and the nation.

The event is Friday, Sept. 12, from noon-1:30 p.m. at the Royal Sonesta. Find more information here.

Sept. 15-19 — Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week

Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week returns for its second year, with panels, happy hours and pitch days focused on the energy transition. The week features major events, including the Energytech Nexus Pilotathon, the Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum, Halliburton Labs Finalists Pitch Day and many others. See a preview of the week on our sister site EnergyCapitalHTX.com and learn more in the event listings below.

This event starts Monday, Sept. 15. The Ion District will host many of the week's events. Find more information here.

Sept. 16 — Energytech Nexus Pilotathon

Grab breakfast and take in keynotes and panels by leaders from New Climate Ventures, V1 Climate, Halliburton, Energy Tech Nexus and many others during Houston Energy & Climate Week. Then hear pitches during the Pilotathon, which targets startups ready to implement pilot projects within six to 12 months.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 16, from 8 a.m.-5 p.m. at GreenStreet. Get tickets here.

Sept. 16 — Meet the Activate Houston Cohort 2025 Fellows

Meet Activate's latest cohort, which was named this summer, and also learn more about its 2024 group during Houston Energy & Climate Week.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 16, at 5 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Sept. 17 — Green ICU Conference: Sustainability in Health Care for a Healthier Future

Houston Methodist will host its inaugural Green ICU Conference during Houston Energy & Climate Week. The conference is designed to bring together healthcare professionals, industry leaders, policymakers and innovators to explore solutions for building a more sustainable healthcare system.

This event is Wednesday, Sept. 17. from 8 a.m.-3 p.m. at TMC Helix Park. Register here.

Sept. 18 — Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum

Hear from clean energy startups from nine countries and 19 states at the 22nd annual Energy Tech Venture Forum during Houston Energy & Climate Week. The 12 companies that were named to Class 5 of the Rice Alliance Clean Energy Accelerator will present during Demo Day to wrap up their 10-week program. Apart from pitches, this event will also host keynotes from Arjun Murti, partner of energy macro and policy at Veriten, and Susan Schofer, partner at HAX and chief science officer at SOSV. Panels will focus on corporate innovation and institutional venture capital.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 18, from 7:30 a.m.-5 p.m. at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Register here.

Sept. 18 — ACCEL Year 3 Showcase

Celebrate Advancing Climatetech and Clean Energy Leaders Program, or ACCEL, an accelerator program for startups led by BIPOC and other underrepresented founders from Greentown Labs and Browning the Green Space. Two Houston companies and one from Austin are among the eight startups to be named to the 2025 group. Hear startup pitches from the cohort, and from Greentown's Head of Houston, Lawson Gow, CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter and others. This event is part of Houston Energy & Climate Week.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 18, from 5-8 p.m. at Greentown Labs. Get tickets here.

Sept. 19 — Halliburton Labs Finalists Pitch Day

Hear from Halliburton Labs' latest cohort of entrepreneurs during Houston Energy & Climate Week. The incubator aims to advance the companies’ commercialization with support from Halliburton's network, facilities and financing opportunities. Its latest cohort includes one company from Texas.

This event is Friday, Sept. 19, from 8 a.m.-noon at The Ion. Register here.

Sept. 21-25 — AI in Health Conference

The Ken Kennedy Institute at Rice University will present the fourth annual AI in Health Conference, which aims to bridge the gap between artificial intelligence and real-world health outcomes. The event will explore the current landscape of artificial intelligence in health and present a research-driven outlook for the future of computational health innovation.

This conference is from Tuesday, Sept. 23, to Wednesday, Sept. 24. Additional workshops will be offered on Monday, Sept. 22, and Thursday, Sept. 25. The events will be held at the BioScience Research Collaborative at Rice University. Find more information here.

Sept. 25 — Industrial AI Nexus Connect

InnovateEnergy and Industrial AI Nexus will host a talk by Matthew Alberts, manager of innovation and emerging technologies at Southern Company and author of "The Gen AI Manufacturing Revolution: Smarter Factories, Enhanced Products, and Reduced Costs." Alberts will present “The Gen AI Revolution," followed by happy hour and a complimentary book signing.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 25, from 5:30-7:30 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Texas is the 4th hardest working state in America, report finds

Ranking It

It's no secret that Texans are hardworking people. To align with the Labor Day holiday, a new WalletHub study asserts that the Lone Star State is one of the five most hardworking states in America for 2025.

The report ranked Texas the fourth most hardworking state this year, indicating that its residents are working harder than ever after the state fell into seventh place in 2024. Texas previously ranked No. 4 in 2019 and 2020, slipped into No. 5 in 2021 and 2022, then continued falling into sixth place in 2023. But now the state is making its way back to the top of the list.

WalletHub's analysts compared all 50 states based on "direct" and "indirect" work factors. The six "direct" work factors included each state's average workweek hours, employment rates, the share of households where no adults work, the share of workers leaving vacation time unused, and other data. The four "indirect" work factors consisted of workers' average commute times, the share of workers with multiple jobs, the annual volunteer hours per resident, and the average leisure time spent per day.

North Dakota landed on top as the most hardworking state in America for 2025 for another year in a row, earning a score of 66.17 points out of a possible 100. For comparison, Texas ranked No. 4 with 57.06 points. Alaska (No. 2), South Dakota (No. 3), and Hawaii (No. 5) round out the top five hardest working states.

Across the study's two main categories, Texas ranked No. 5 in the "direct" work factors ranking, and earned a respectable No. 18 rank for its "indirect" work factors.

Broken down further, Texans have the second-longest average workweek hours in America, and they have the 12th best average commute times. Texans have the 6th lowest amount of average leisure time spent per day, the report also found.

According to the study's findings, many Americans nationwide won't take the chance to not work as hard when presented with the opportunity. A 2024 Sorbet PTO report found 33 percent of Americans' paid time off was left unused in 2023.

"While leaving vacation time on the table may seem strange to some people, there are plenty of reasons why workers choose to do so," the report's author wrote. "Some fear that if they take time off they will look less dedicated to the job than other employees, risking a layoff. Others worry about falling behind on their work or are concerned that the normal workflow will not be able to function without them."

The top 10 hardest working states are:

  • No. 1 – North Dakota
  • No. 2 – Alaska
  • No. 3 – South Dakota
  • No. 4 – Texas
  • No. 5 – Hawaii
  • No. 6 – Virginia
  • No. 7 – New Hampshire
  • No. 8 – Wyoming
  • No. 9 – Maryland
  • No. 10 – Nebraska
---

This story originally appeared on CultureMap.com.