Rice research explores how shopping data could reshape credit scores

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Everyday data like grocery store receipts can help expand access to credit and support upward mobility. Photo by Boxed Water Is Better on Unsplash

More than a billion people worldwide can’t access credit cards or loans because they lack a traditional credit score. Without a formal borrowing history, banks often view them as unreliable and risky. To reach these borrowers, lenders have begun experimenting with alternative signals of financial reliability, such as consistent utility or mobile phone payments.

New research from Rice Business builds on that approach. Previous work by assistant professor of marketing Jung Youn Lee showed that everyday data like grocery store receipts can help expand access to credit and support upward mobility. Her latest study extends this insight, using broader consumer spending patterns to explore how alternative credit scores could be created for people with no credit history.

Forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing Research, the study finds that when lenders use data from daily purchases — at grocery, pharmacy, and home improvement stores — credit card approval rates rise. The findings give lenders a powerful new tool to connect the unbanked to credit, laying the foundation for long-term financial security and stronger local economies.

Turning Shopping Habits into Credit Data

To test the impact of retail transaction data on credit card approval rates, the researchers partnered with a Peruvian company that owns both retail businesses and a credit card issuer. In Peru, only 22% of people report borrowing money from a formal financial institution or using a mobile money account.

The team combined three sets of data: credit card applications from the company, loyalty card transactions, and individuals’ credit histories from Peru’s financial regulatory authority. The company’s point-of-sale data included the types of items purchased, how customers paid, and whether they bought sale items.

“The key takeaway is that we can create a new kind of credit score for people who lack traditional credit histories, using their retail shopping behavior to expand access to credit,” Lee says.

The final sample included 46,039 credit card applicants who had received a single credit decision, had no delinquent loans, and made at least one purchase between January 2021 and May 2022. Of these, 62% had a credit history and 38% did not.

Using this data, the researchers built an algorithm that generated credit scores based on retail purchases and predicted repayment behavior in the six months following the application. They then simulated credit card approval decisions.

Retail Scores Boost Approvals, Reduce Defaults

The researchers found that using retail purchase data to build credit scores for people without traditional credit histories significantly increased their chances of approval. Certain shopping behaviors — such as seeking out sale items — were linked to greater reliability as borrowers.

For lenders using a fixed credit score threshold, approval rates rose from 15.5% to 47.8%. Lenders basing decisions on a target loan default rate also saw approvals rise, from 15.6% to 31.3%.

“The key takeaway is that we can create a new kind of credit score for people who lack traditional credit histories, using their retail shopping behavior to expand access to credit,” Lee says. “This approach benefits unbanked applicants regardless of a lender’s specific goals — though the size of the benefit may vary.”

Applicants without credit histories who were approved using the retail-based credit score were also more likely to repay their loans, indicating genuine creditworthiness. Among first-time borrowers, the default rate dropped from 4.74% to 3.31% when lenders incorporated retail data into their decisions and kept approval rates constant.

For applicants with existing credit histories, the opposite was true: approval rates fell slightly, from 87.5% to 84.5%, as the new model more effectively screened out high-risk applicants.

Expanding Access, Managing Risk

The study offers clear takeaways for banks and credit card companies. Lenders who want to approve more applications without taking on too much risk can use parts of the researchers’ model to design their own credit scoring tools based on customers’ shopping habits.

Still, Lee says, the process must be transparent. Consumers should know how their spending data might be used and decide for themselves whether the potential benefits outweigh privacy concerns. That means lenders must clearly communicate how data is collected, stored, and protected—and ensure customers can opt in with informed consent.

Banks should also keep a close eye on first-time borrowers to make sure they’re using credit responsibly. “Proactive customer management is crucial,” Lee says. That might mean starting people off with lower credit limits and raising them gradually as they demonstrate good repayment behavior.

This approach can also discourage people from trying to “game the system” by changing their spending patterns temporarily to boost their retail-based credit score. Lenders can design their models to detect that kind of behavior, too.

The Future of Credit

One risk of using retail data is that lenders might unintentionally reject applicants who would have qualified under traditional criteria — say, because of one unusual purchase. Lee says banks can fine-tune their models to minimize those errors.

She also notes that the same approach could eventually be used for other types of loans, such as mortgages or auto loans. Combined with her earlier research showing that grocery purchase data can predict defaults, the findings strengthen the case that shopping behavior can reliably signal creditworthiness.

“If you tend to buy sale items, you’re more likely to be a good borrower. Or if you often buy healthy food, you’re probably more creditworthy,” Lee explains. “This idea can be applied broadly, but models should still be customized for different situations.”

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom. Written by Deborah Lynn Blumberg

Anderson, Lee, and Yang (2025). “Who Benefits from Alternative Data for Credit Scoring? Evidence from Peru,” Journal of Marketing Research.

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Grocery purchase data can accurately predict credit risk for individuals without traditional credit scores, potentially broadening the pool of qualified loan applicants. Photo via Unsplash

Houston researchers find alternate data for loan qualification

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Millions of consumers who apply for a loan to buy a house or car or start a business can’t qualify — even if they’re likely to pay it back. That’s because many lack a key piece of financial information: a credit score.

The problem isn’t just isolated to emerging economies. Exclusion from the financial system is a major issue in the United States, too, where some 45 million adults may be denied access to loans because they don’t have a credit history and are “credit invisible.”

To improve access to loans and peoples’ economic mobility, lenders have started looking into alternative data sources to assess a loan applicant’s risk of defaulting. These include bank account transactions and on-time rental, utility and mobile phone payments.

A new article by Rice Business assistant professor of marketing Jung Youn Lee and colleagues from Notre Dame and Northwestern identifies an even more widespread data source that could broaden the pool of qualified applicants: grocery store receipts.

As metrics for predicting credit risk, the researchers found that the types of food, drinks and other products consumers buy, and how they buy them, are just as good as a traditional credit score.

“There could be privacy concerns when you think about it in practice,” Lee says, “so the consumer should really have the option and be empowered to do it.” One approach could be to let consumers opt in to a lender looking at their grocery data as a second chance at approval rather than automatically enrolling them and offering an opt-out.

To arrive at their findings, the researchers analyzed grocery transaction data from a multinational conglomerate headquartered in a Middle Eastern country that owns a credit card issuer and a large-scale supermarket chain. Many people in the country are unbanked. They merged the supermarket’s loyalty card data and issuer’s credit card spending and payment history numbers, resulting in data on 30,089 consumers from January 2017 to June 2019. About half had a credit score, 81% always paid their credit card bills on time, 12% missed payments periodically, and 7% defaulted.

The researchers first created a model to establish a connection between grocery purchasing behavior and credit risk. They found that people who bought healthy foods like fresh milk, yogurt and fruits and vegetables were more likely to pay their bills on time, while shoppers who purchased cigarettes, energy drinks and canned meat tended to miss payments. This held true for “observationally equivalent” individuals — those with similar income, occupation, employment status and number of dependents. In other words, when two people look demographically identical, the study still finds that they have different credit risks.

People’s grocery-buying behaviors play a factor in their likelihood to pay their bills on time, too. For example, cardholders who consistently paid their credit card bill on time were more likely to shop on the same day of the week, spend similar amounts across months and buy the same brands and product categories.

The researchers then built two credit-scoring predictive algorithms to simulate a lender’s decision of whether or not to approve a credit card applicant. One excludes grocery data inputs, and the other includes them (in addition to standard data). Incorporating grocery data into their decision-making process improved risk assessment of an applicant by a factor of 3.11% to 7.66%.

Furthermore, the lender in the simulation experienced a 1.46% profit increase when the researchers implemented a two-stage decision-making process — first, screening applicants using only standard data, then adding grocery data as an additional layer.

One caveat to these findings, Lee and her colleagues warn, is that the benefit of grocery data falls sharply as traditional credit scores or relationship-specific credit histories become available. This suggests the data could be most helpful for consumers new to credit.

Overall, however, this could be a win-win scenario for both consumers and lenders. “People excluded from the traditional credit system gain access to loans,” Lee says, “and lenders become more profitable by approving more creditworthy people.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom based on research by Rice University's Jung Youn Lee, Joonhyuk Yang (Notre Dame) and Eric Anderson (Northwestern). “Using Grocery Data for Credit Decisions.” Forthcoming in Management Science. 2024: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02364.


Give credit where credit is due. The Woodlands falls in the "very good" category. Photo courtesy of Local Government Federal Credit Union

Houston suburbs charge ahead with some of the highest credit scores in Texas

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Give the residents of The Woodlands some credit. They’re able to brag about achieving some of the highest credit scores in Texas.

A new study from personal finance website WalletHub shows the median credit score of a Woodlands resident is 757. Among the 2,572 U.S. cities covered in the study, The Woodlands nabs a 287th-place tie for cities with the highest median credit score.

FICO, the primary producer of credit scores in the U.S., characterizes 757 as a “very good” credit score. On the FICO scale, credit scores range from 300 to 850. A credit score anywhere from 740 to 799 is above the U.S. average “and demonstrates to lenders that the borrow is very dependable,” according to FICO.

WalletHub based the study on September 2021 data from TransUnion, one of the three major credit-reporting bureaus. In the study, The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, is the only city where the median credit score is above 800 — 806, to be exact.

Two other Houston-area suburbs — Montgomery and Friendswood — ranked among Texas cities for the highest credit scores, coming in with a median credit score of 738 and 732, respectively.

Here are the other cities in the top 15 statewide:

  • Colleyville (Dallas-Fort Worth), 777, 23rd nationally.
  • Flower Mound, 762, tied for 185th place nationally.
  • Coppell (Dallas-Fort Worth), 758, tied for 262nd place nationally.
  • The Woodlands (Houston), 757, tied for 287th nationally.
  • Keller (Dallas-Fort Worth), 756, tied for 300th nationally.
  • Allen (Dallas-Fort Worth), 750, tied for 428th nationally.
  • Georgetown (Austin), 749, tied for 446th nationally.
  • Frisco (Dallas-Fort Worth), 748, tied for 467th nationally.
  • Cedar Park (Austin), 743, tied for 568th nationally.
  • Plano (Dallas-Fort Worth), 740, tied for 629th nationally.
  • Montgomery (Houston), 738, tied for 681st nationally.
  • Friendswood (Houston), 732, tied for 784th nationally.
  • Rockwall (Dallas-Fort Worth), 732, tied for 784th nationally.

Among Texas’ biggest cities, Austin is the only one where the median credit score exceeds 700. In the Capital City, the median score is 713, tied for 1,208th nationally. San Antonio is next in line, at 664 (tied for 2,236th nationally), followed by Houston (662, tied for 2281st nationally), Dallas (661, tied for 2,299th nationally), and Fort Worth (615.5, tied for 2,545th nationally).

Bad news for Sugar Land, which is the only Texas city with a median credit score below 600. According to the study, the median score there is 571, putting it in 2,563rd place nationally. FICO identifies that as a “poor” credit score.

J. Keith Baker, a CPA and certified financial planner who teaches at Dallas College’s North Lake campus in Irving, tells WalletHub that the best way to improve or maintain your credit score is to pay your credit card balances in full every month.

“Some folks will close a credit card account thinking it will help them manage their spending and protect them from identity theft since they are not using an account,” Baker says. “While this may make sense for an individual’s financial situation, do not assume it will automatically improve your credit scores.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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7+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events in June 2026

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Editor's note: The FIFA World Cup comes to Houston this month, joined by major energy conferences and a lineup of fan-favorite, recurring events. Here’s what not to miss and how to register. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.


June 1-4 — CLEANPOWER 2026 Conference and Exhibition

CLEANPOWER unites policymakers, experts, and corporate leaders to solve the challenges that none can solve alone. This must-attend, four-day conference is packed with cutting-edge discussions about wind, solar, storage, and transmission; dealmaking; networking; and fun.

This event begins June 1 at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

June 2 — Humans of Healthcare

Houston Methodist Center for Innovation will present its quarterly speaker series, Humans of Healthcare. The series will feature a panel of experts who will share about their career paths and discuss the nuances of the health care industry. This month's session will focus on today’s nursing landscape, the industry’s expectations of nurses and what career paths are possible in the field.

The event is Tuesday, June 2, from 5-6:30 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

June 9 — Greentown Go Make Kickoff

Head to the Ion to celebrate the Greentown Go Make 2026 cohort. The open-innovation program with Shell Catalysts & Technologies and Technip Energies focuses on catalytic solutions for industrial decarbonization and the energy transition. Hear pitches from the founders and network with a select group of startups while enjoying food and drink.

This event is Tuesday, June 9, from 5:30-8 p.m. Register here.

June 9-10 — Texas Brain Economy Summit

The Center for Houston’s Future and UTMB are bringing the Texas Brain Economy Summit back to Houston this summer to continue to position the region as a global leader in brain health. Expect to hear from leaders of global institutions, including the World Economic Forum, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, McKinsey Health Institute, Global Brain Economy Initiative, Davos Alzheimer’s Collaborative, Business Collaborative for Brain Health (UsAgainstAlzheimer’s), Rice University, Memorial Hermann, MD Anderson and many others. Read InnovationMap's full preview of the event here.

This event begins Tuesday, June 9. Purchase tickets here.

June 10 — MIT Future of Healthcare Technology Forum

The MIT Club of South Texas will host an in-person forum to explore how innovation, government and policy are changing the healthcare industry. The event will feature MIT alumni and Houston healthcare leaders, including Dr. Tim Boone, dean of the Texas A&M School of Engineering Medicine; Cynthia Reinhart-King, chair of bioengineering at Rice University; Dr. Tony Lin, CEO and chairman emeritus of Kelsey-Seybold Clinic; and others.

This event is Wednesday, June 10, from 5:15-8:30 p.m. at the TAMU EnMed Building. Register here.

June 11 — Goals & Gigawatts: Houston Energy & Climate Week The Power of & Kickoff Party

Come watch the Mexico City FIFA opening match while celebrating energy and innovation at the Goals & Gigawatts Kickoff Party. The event will feature food, drinks, and a showcase on Houston Energy & Climate Week. Learn what to expect and how to get involved in HECW before closing the night with a DJ and karaoke.

This event is Thursday, June 11, from 1:30-6:30 p.m. Find more information here.

June 16-17 — Energy Projects Conference & Expo

The Energy Projects Conference & Expo (EPC Show) is the largest event in North America for professionals working at the heart of major energy projects. The essential event for engineering, construction, commissioning, operations and maintenance across multiple energy sectors brings together five leading conferences under one roof. Conference subjects span LNG exporting, hydrogen and ammonia, midstream, petrochem and refining, and sustainable aviation fuels.

This event begins June 16 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

June 25 – NASA Tech Talk

Every fourth Thursday of the month, NASA experts, including longtime engineer Montgomery Goforth, present on technology development challenges NASA’s Johnson Space Center and the larger aerospace community are facing, and how they can be leveraged by Houston’s innovation community. Stick around after for drinks and networking at Second Draught.

This event is Thursday, June 25, from 6-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Houston researchers report promising first in-human trial for implantable cancer therapy

cancer breakthrough

When it comes to cancer remedies, the treatment can be as challenging for the body as its cause. But what if immunotherapy could be localized? That’s precisely what a Houston team may soon make a reality.

Rice University researchers, in partnership with MD Anderson Cancer Center, recently published their findings from the first in-human trial of an implantable cancer-fighting treatment in the journal Clinical Cancer Research. The paper details testing of AVB-001, encapsulated cells engineered to release interleukin-2 (IL-2)—a naturally occurring signaling protein that boosts immunity—in the peritoneal cavities of 14 patients. The goal is to avoid the toxicity usually experienced with less targeted treatments, as well as find a solution to IL-2s’ abbreviated half-lives.

“Traditional IL-2 therapy has shown potent antitumor activity, but its clinical use has been limited by severe side effects and delivery challenges,” Omid Veiseh, director of the Rice Biotech Launch Pad, professor of bioengineering at Rice and a senior author on the study, said in a press release. “This platform allows us to localize and sustain cytokine exposure directly where tumors reside while minimizing systemic toxicity.”

Serous ovarian carcinoma is especially well-suited to the use of AVB-001 because it tends to spread throughout the abdomen. After a minimally invasive laparoscopic procedure, patients implanted with the cells were noted to tolerate the treatment well. Half of the enrolled patients’ cancer was stabilized, with several among them reporting extended signs of benefit. No maximum tolerated dose was reached and there were no life-threatening events tied to the study.

If that sounds like less-than-earth-shaking results, this is only the beginning. The capsules were implanted for about one week because IL-2 activity drops off after that. The researchers now know that further testing should include either higher levels, repeated doses, or a combination thereof, in order to create stronger advances.

The team has already made early headway on this next step. Preclinical studies in nonhuman primates were not only tolerated well, but without added toxicity, the apes had consistent pharmacological effects.

“This is a foundational step,” Veiseh explained. “We now have evidence that the platform is safe, biologically active and potentially scalable. The next phase is optimizing dosing and exploring combination therapies to unlock its full clinical potential.”

The combination would also include a checkpoint inhibitor, which might improve AVB-001’s tumor-fighting power. “What is exciting is that we are not just delivering a drug, we are programming a microenvironment,” added Dr. Amir Jazaeri, professor of gynecologic oncology at MD Anderson, member of the Rice Biotech Launch Pad’s clinical advisory board and a senior author on the study. “This opens the door to combination strategies that could amplify immune responses in ways that have not been feasible before.”

5 must-read innovation headlines: Pharma giant considers Houston hub + more

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Editor's note: With May coming to a close, it's time to look back at the biggest innovation headlines for the second half of the month. Major moves were made in May, with NuScale Power entering the market, Persona AI inking a deal with Under Armour, and a pharma giant considering Houston for its next manufacturing hub. Here are the most-read InnovationMap stories published May 15-29, 2026:

1. Pharma giant considers Houston for $1 billion manufacturing campus

Another pharmaceutical giant is considering Houston’s Generation Park for a manufacturing hub. According to a recent filing with the Texas Jobs, Energy, Technology and Innovation (JETI) program, Bristol Myers Squibb Co. is considering the northeast Houston management district for a new $1 billion multi-modal pharmaceutical manufacturing campus.

2. Modular nuclear reactor co. NuScale Power moves into Houston market

The nuclear energy renaissance continues in Texas with an announcement by NuScale Power. The Oregon-based provider of proprietary and innovative advanced small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear technology announced in April it would be opening office space in Houston’s CityCentre.

3. Persona AI teams with Under Armour to protect next-gen robots

Houston-based Persona AI has cemented a partnership with sportswear manufacturer Under Armour to provide materials to protect future robots operating in dangerous conditions. Through the partnership, Persona AI and Under Armour will launch a research initiative to explore whether advanced performance textiles can improve the durability and resilience of humanoid robots operating in harsh industrial environments.

4. Houston quantum energy chip startup emerges from stealth with $12M round

Houston-based Casimir has emerged from stealth with a $12 million seed round to commercialize its quantum energy chip. The round was led by Austin-based Scout Ventures. Lavrock Ventures, Cottonwood Technology, Capital Factory, American Deep Tech, and Tim Draper of Draper Associates also participated in the round. The oversubscribed round exceeded the company’s original $8 million target.

5. Global summit spotlights Houston's growing role in brain health, innovation

The Center for Houston’s Future and UTMB are bringing the Texas Brain Economy Summit back to Houston this summer to continue to position the region as a global leader in brain health. The summit, held June 9-10 at the Texas Medical Center's Helix Park, will bring together more than 500 executives, researchers, policymakers and innovators from around the world to discuss the global brain economy.

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