Rice research explores how shopping data could reshape credit scores

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Everyday data like grocery store receipts can help expand access to credit and support upward mobility. Photo by Boxed Water Is Better on Unsplash

More than a billion people worldwide can’t access credit cards or loans because they lack a traditional credit score. Without a formal borrowing history, banks often view them as unreliable and risky. To reach these borrowers, lenders have begun experimenting with alternative signals of financial reliability, such as consistent utility or mobile phone payments.

New research from Rice Business builds on that approach. Previous work by assistant professor of marketing Jung Youn Lee showed that everyday data like grocery store receipts can help expand access to credit and support upward mobility. Her latest study extends this insight, using broader consumer spending patterns to explore how alternative credit scores could be created for people with no credit history.

Forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing Research, the study finds that when lenders use data from daily purchases — at grocery, pharmacy, and home improvement stores — credit card approval rates rise. The findings give lenders a powerful new tool to connect the unbanked to credit, laying the foundation for long-term financial security and stronger local economies.

Turning Shopping Habits into Credit Data

To test the impact of retail transaction data on credit card approval rates, the researchers partnered with a Peruvian company that owns both retail businesses and a credit card issuer. In Peru, only 22% of people report borrowing money from a formal financial institution or using a mobile money account.

The team combined three sets of data: credit card applications from the company, loyalty card transactions, and individuals’ credit histories from Peru’s financial regulatory authority. The company’s point-of-sale data included the types of items purchased, how customers paid, and whether they bought sale items.

“The key takeaway is that we can create a new kind of credit score for people who lack traditional credit histories, using their retail shopping behavior to expand access to credit,” Lee says.

The final sample included 46,039 credit card applicants who had received a single credit decision, had no delinquent loans, and made at least one purchase between January 2021 and May 2022. Of these, 62% had a credit history and 38% did not.

Using this data, the researchers built an algorithm that generated credit scores based on retail purchases and predicted repayment behavior in the six months following the application. They then simulated credit card approval decisions.

Retail Scores Boost Approvals, Reduce Defaults

The researchers found that using retail purchase data to build credit scores for people without traditional credit histories significantly increased their chances of approval. Certain shopping behaviors — such as seeking out sale items — were linked to greater reliability as borrowers.

For lenders using a fixed credit score threshold, approval rates rose from 15.5% to 47.8%. Lenders basing decisions on a target loan default rate also saw approvals rise, from 15.6% to 31.3%.

“The key takeaway is that we can create a new kind of credit score for people who lack traditional credit histories, using their retail shopping behavior to expand access to credit,” Lee says. “This approach benefits unbanked applicants regardless of a lender’s specific goals — though the size of the benefit may vary.”

Applicants without credit histories who were approved using the retail-based credit score were also more likely to repay their loans, indicating genuine creditworthiness. Among first-time borrowers, the default rate dropped from 4.74% to 3.31% when lenders incorporated retail data into their decisions and kept approval rates constant.

For applicants with existing credit histories, the opposite was true: approval rates fell slightly, from 87.5% to 84.5%, as the new model more effectively screened out high-risk applicants.

Expanding Access, Managing Risk

The study offers clear takeaways for banks and credit card companies. Lenders who want to approve more applications without taking on too much risk can use parts of the researchers’ model to design their own credit scoring tools based on customers’ shopping habits.

Still, Lee says, the process must be transparent. Consumers should know how their spending data might be used and decide for themselves whether the potential benefits outweigh privacy concerns. That means lenders must clearly communicate how data is collected, stored, and protected—and ensure customers can opt in with informed consent.

Banks should also keep a close eye on first-time borrowers to make sure they’re using credit responsibly. “Proactive customer management is crucial,” Lee says. That might mean starting people off with lower credit limits and raising them gradually as they demonstrate good repayment behavior.

This approach can also discourage people from trying to “game the system” by changing their spending patterns temporarily to boost their retail-based credit score. Lenders can design their models to detect that kind of behavior, too.

The Future of Credit

One risk of using retail data is that lenders might unintentionally reject applicants who would have qualified under traditional criteria — say, because of one unusual purchase. Lee says banks can fine-tune their models to minimize those errors.

She also notes that the same approach could eventually be used for other types of loans, such as mortgages or auto loans. Combined with her earlier research showing that grocery purchase data can predict defaults, the findings strengthen the case that shopping behavior can reliably signal creditworthiness.

“If you tend to buy sale items, you’re more likely to be a good borrower. Or if you often buy healthy food, you’re probably more creditworthy,” Lee explains. “This idea can be applied broadly, but models should still be customized for different situations.”

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom. Written by Deborah Lynn Blumberg

Anderson, Lee, and Yang (2025). “Who Benefits from Alternative Data for Credit Scoring? Evidence from Peru,” Journal of Marketing Research.

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Grocery purchase data can accurately predict credit risk for individuals without traditional credit scores, potentially broadening the pool of qualified loan applicants. Photo via Unsplash

Houston researchers find alternate data for loan qualification

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Millions of consumers who apply for a loan to buy a house or car or start a business can’t qualify — even if they’re likely to pay it back. That’s because many lack a key piece of financial information: a credit score.

The problem isn’t just isolated to emerging economies. Exclusion from the financial system is a major issue in the United States, too, where some 45 million adults may be denied access to loans because they don’t have a credit history and are “credit invisible.”

To improve access to loans and peoples’ economic mobility, lenders have started looking into alternative data sources to assess a loan applicant’s risk of defaulting. These include bank account transactions and on-time rental, utility and mobile phone payments.

A new article by Rice Business assistant professor of marketing Jung Youn Lee and colleagues from Notre Dame and Northwestern identifies an even more widespread data source that could broaden the pool of qualified applicants: grocery store receipts.

As metrics for predicting credit risk, the researchers found that the types of food, drinks and other products consumers buy, and how they buy them, are just as good as a traditional credit score.

“There could be privacy concerns when you think about it in practice,” Lee says, “so the consumer should really have the option and be empowered to do it.” One approach could be to let consumers opt in to a lender looking at their grocery data as a second chance at approval rather than automatically enrolling them and offering an opt-out.

To arrive at their findings, the researchers analyzed grocery transaction data from a multinational conglomerate headquartered in a Middle Eastern country that owns a credit card issuer and a large-scale supermarket chain. Many people in the country are unbanked. They merged the supermarket’s loyalty card data and issuer’s credit card spending and payment history numbers, resulting in data on 30,089 consumers from January 2017 to June 2019. About half had a credit score, 81% always paid their credit card bills on time, 12% missed payments periodically, and 7% defaulted.

The researchers first created a model to establish a connection between grocery purchasing behavior and credit risk. They found that people who bought healthy foods like fresh milk, yogurt and fruits and vegetables were more likely to pay their bills on time, while shoppers who purchased cigarettes, energy drinks and canned meat tended to miss payments. This held true for “observationally equivalent” individuals — those with similar income, occupation, employment status and number of dependents. In other words, when two people look demographically identical, the study still finds that they have different credit risks.

People’s grocery-buying behaviors play a factor in their likelihood to pay their bills on time, too. For example, cardholders who consistently paid their credit card bill on time were more likely to shop on the same day of the week, spend similar amounts across months and buy the same brands and product categories.

The researchers then built two credit-scoring predictive algorithms to simulate a lender’s decision of whether or not to approve a credit card applicant. One excludes grocery data inputs, and the other includes them (in addition to standard data). Incorporating grocery data into their decision-making process improved risk assessment of an applicant by a factor of 3.11% to 7.66%.

Furthermore, the lender in the simulation experienced a 1.46% profit increase when the researchers implemented a two-stage decision-making process — first, screening applicants using only standard data, then adding grocery data as an additional layer.

One caveat to these findings, Lee and her colleagues warn, is that the benefit of grocery data falls sharply as traditional credit scores or relationship-specific credit histories become available. This suggests the data could be most helpful for consumers new to credit.

Overall, however, this could be a win-win scenario for both consumers and lenders. “People excluded from the traditional credit system gain access to loans,” Lee says, “and lenders become more profitable by approving more creditworthy people.”

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This article originally ran on Rice Business Wisdom based on research by Rice University's Jung Youn Lee, Joonhyuk Yang (Notre Dame) and Eric Anderson (Northwestern). “Using Grocery Data for Credit Decisions.” Forthcoming in Management Science. 2024: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02364.


Give credit where credit is due. The Woodlands falls in the "very good" category. Photo courtesy of Local Government Federal Credit Union

Houston suburbs charge ahead with some of the highest credit scores in Texas

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Give the residents of The Woodlands some credit. They’re able to brag about achieving some of the highest credit scores in Texas.

A new study from personal finance website WalletHub shows the median credit score of a Woodlands resident is 757. Among the 2,572 U.S. cities covered in the study, The Woodlands nabs a 287th-place tie for cities with the highest median credit score.

FICO, the primary producer of credit scores in the U.S., characterizes 757 as a “very good” credit score. On the FICO scale, credit scores range from 300 to 850. A credit score anywhere from 740 to 799 is above the U.S. average “and demonstrates to lenders that the borrow is very dependable,” according to FICO.

WalletHub based the study on September 2021 data from TransUnion, one of the three major credit-reporting bureaus. In the study, The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, is the only city where the median credit score is above 800 — 806, to be exact.

Two other Houston-area suburbs — Montgomery and Friendswood — ranked among Texas cities for the highest credit scores, coming in with a median credit score of 738 and 732, respectively.

Here are the other cities in the top 15 statewide:

  • Colleyville (Dallas-Fort Worth), 777, 23rd nationally.
  • Flower Mound, 762, tied for 185th place nationally.
  • Coppell (Dallas-Fort Worth), 758, tied for 262nd place nationally.
  • The Woodlands (Houston), 757, tied for 287th nationally.
  • Keller (Dallas-Fort Worth), 756, tied for 300th nationally.
  • Allen (Dallas-Fort Worth), 750, tied for 428th nationally.
  • Georgetown (Austin), 749, tied for 446th nationally.
  • Frisco (Dallas-Fort Worth), 748, tied for 467th nationally.
  • Cedar Park (Austin), 743, tied for 568th nationally.
  • Plano (Dallas-Fort Worth), 740, tied for 629th nationally.
  • Montgomery (Houston), 738, tied for 681st nationally.
  • Friendswood (Houston), 732, tied for 784th nationally.
  • Rockwall (Dallas-Fort Worth), 732, tied for 784th nationally.

Among Texas’ biggest cities, Austin is the only one where the median credit score exceeds 700. In the Capital City, the median score is 713, tied for 1,208th nationally. San Antonio is next in line, at 664 (tied for 2,236th nationally), followed by Houston (662, tied for 2281st nationally), Dallas (661, tied for 2,299th nationally), and Fort Worth (615.5, tied for 2,545th nationally).

Bad news for Sugar Land, which is the only Texas city with a median credit score below 600. According to the study, the median score there is 571, putting it in 2,563rd place nationally. FICO identifies that as a “poor” credit score.

J. Keith Baker, a CPA and certified financial planner who teaches at Dallas College’s North Lake campus in Irving, tells WalletHub that the best way to improve or maintain your credit score is to pay your credit card balances in full every month.

“Some folks will close a credit card account thinking it will help them manage their spending and protect them from identity theft since they are not using an account,” Baker says. “While this may make sense for an individual’s financial situation, do not assume it will automatically improve your credit scores.”

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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UH secures $5M in philanthropic gifts to bolster engineering, nursing

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The University of Houston has received two significant philanthropic gifts to advance innovation and healthcare, the college announced this month.

Manmohan Singh Kalsi and Marie-Luise Schubert Kalsi granted $4 million to UH’s Cullen College of Engineering to support endowed and current funds for graduate fellowships and industry interest in the mechanical and aerospace fields.

The gift is the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering’s largest donation in years, according to UH, and will establish two endowed professorships to attract and retain leading faculty. It will also create the Kalsi Faculty Research Fund, which aims to take emerging research to the next level.

Additionally, UH says it will also bring industry experts to campus to present and collaborate with students via the forthcoming Kalsi Seminar Series.

Manmohan Kalsi earned both his master’s degree and Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from UH. He went on to found Sugar Land-based Kalsi Engineering in 1978, which pioneered hydrodynamic rotary sealing technology and valve technology for nuclear power plants. In 2014, he established an endowed professorship within Cullen College in honor of the late UH professor Gabriel Fazekas.

"This gift provides a tremendous boost to our department's strategic momentum,” Karolos Grigoriadis, chair of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, said in a news release. “By simultaneously supporting faculty, graduate researchers and collaborative seminars, the Kalsis are strengthening every part of our research enterprise and creating new opportunities for discovery, collaboration and student mentorship.”

Meanwhile, Houston’s The Hamill Foundation also gave a $1 million gift to UH’s Andy and Barbara Gessner College of Nursing. The funds will establish The Hamill Foundation Endowed Professorship in Community Care Nursing, to support a faculty member focused on community-based nursing education, partnerships, research, and outreach to underserved communities in Houston.

Additionally, the funding will go toward efforts to address nurse shortages through the newly established UH Health program. The Hamill Foundation has donated $6 million previously to UH through the years, but the latest $1 million is the largest single investment from the foundation to date.

“The Hamill Foundation continues to help us raise the bar for nursing education and address the nursing shortage,” Kathryn Tart, founding dean and professor at Gessner College and Humana Endowed Dean's Chair in Nursing, said in a news release. “The enduring commitment and generosity of The Hamill Foundation allow us to answer the call and educate generations of competent and caring nursing professionals.”

Both of the recent gifts help fund UH’s $1 billion Can’t Stop Houston: The Centennial Campaign. As of September, the university had raised more than $881 million. UH turns 100 years old in March 2027.

SpaceX's supersized Starship rocket launches into orbit for first time

Out in Space

SpaceX launched its enormous Starship into orbit for the first time Monday, September 28, and successfully delivered the most advanced Starlink satellites yet, but cut the flight short to ensure safety.

The spacecraft reentered over the Pacific and splashed down north of Hawaii three hours after blasting off from Texas. The company had been aiming for a 10-hour flight, spanning six full laps around Earth, to prove its readiness for NASA’s Artemis moon program.

Starship tipped over and erupted in flames upon splashdown, a dramatic end to the mission.

Elon Musk's Starship almost didn't make it to orbit when one of its engines shut down prematurely. But with everything else working well and the bad engine no longer needed, flight controllers decided, after several tense minutes, to proceed as planned.

“Starship is orbital,” Mission Control announced to cheers.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman congratulated SpaceX on reaching orbit and “managing every step in a safe, responsible and especially inspirational way.”

Rocket carries 26 of Musk's most advanced Starlink satellites

Musk’s showpiece rocket — the biggest and most powerful ever built — carried 26 of the latest Starlinks to join the 11,000 older models already providing internet service. They popped out of the spacecraft one by one, drawing more cheers from the SpaceX crowd at the Starbase launch site.

The decision to end the flight early came soon afterward. SpaceX said hours later in an online update that the decision was made “out of an abundance of caution” because of the early engine trouble.

It was Starship’s 14th full-scale launch from Texas’ southern tip in three years. Earlier test flights ventured no farther than the Indian Ocean halfway around the world, often crashing in flames and briefly skimming space.

This time, the intent was for SpaceX to circle the globe from an altitude of 170 miles (275 kilometers) — not just once but six times over almost 10 hours, ending with a Pacific splashdown near Chile. While Starship achieved the proper orbit, zipping along at 17,500 mph (28,000 kph), flight controllers opted to play it safe and bring it back several hours sooner, after just a couple of laps.

The first-stage booster was never meant to return to the Starbase launch site either, dropping instead into the Gulf of Mexico within minutes of the morning liftoff.

SpaceX wants to ensure that everything works before flying Starship back to Starbase. If the spacecraft breaks apart over land and rains debris onto people, “our popularity would diminish very rapidly,” Musk said at a business summit earlier this month. “That’s why we’re being extremely cautious here.”

Depending on the findings from Monday's orbital debut, the next Starship could return to the launch pad, where giant mechanical arms would grab the hovering spacecraft. If the catch works — Musk gives it even or slightly better odds — then SpaceX will refly the spacecraft by year’s end or early next year.

The 407-foot (124-meter) rocket was designed from the start to be fully reusable, a key to lowering launch costs. SpaceX managed to salvage the last Starship from the Indian Ocean in July. Engineers modified the newly launched Starship’s heat shield based on hands-on inspections of the recovered spacecraft, which is being tugged back to Starbase.

SpaceX wants Starship to be certified for orbital flight

SpaceX is pressing hard to certify Starship for orbital flight, a vital step toward moon and Mars travel.

NASA’s Artemis III mission is coming up as soon as next summer, a triple-launch docking exercise in orbit around Earth between an Orion capsule full of astronauts and competing lunar landers. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Moon would blast off first, followed by Orion — which would close in for a linkup — and then Musk’s Starship for a docking with Orion once Blue Moon is unleashed.

The next mission, Artemis IV, is slated for no sooner than 2028 and would have astronauts landing on the moon in either Blue Moon or Starship, whichever is ready first. Subsequent moonshots will alternate between the two billionaires’ landers.

Musk originally developed Starship for Mars, intending to launch scores of them with the red planet’s first settlers. For now, he plans to focus on the moon and use Starship to haul satellites into orbit by the truckload, phasing out the company’s frailer Falcon 9 rocket within several years. A second Starship launch site is nearing completion at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center and a third is planned for Louisiana.

Houston startup raises $2.4M for sleep apnea technology

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Houston-based Bairitone Health has closed an oversubscribed seed round and achieved a regulatory milestone, the company tells InnovationMap.

The healthtech startup, which is developing solutions and technology for untreated obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), raised $2.4 million, says CEO and co-founder Meagan Pitcher, exceeding its $2 million goal.

New York-based Golden Seeds, which invests in female entrepreneurs, led the round. Houston-based South Loop Ventures also participated, as well as MALIAM, Impact Invest Her and additional angel, venture, syndicate and family office investors. The company previously raised a pre-seed round of $435,000 in 2024.

Pitcher says the latest funding will go toward Bairitone's clinical site expansion, FDA-facing work and the continued product development of its SOMNAR technology.

"What I’m most excited about is what this lets us do next: expand our clinical testing, work with more patients and physicians, and keep improving based on what we learn," Pitcher said in a LinkedIn post.

SOMNAR is the company's noninvasive diagnostic platform for sleep apnea airway assessment. The platform maps users' anatomy during natural sleep using a facial patch to determine the root cause of airway obstruction. It then offers effective therapies for each patient.

SOMNAR received Breakthrough Device Designation from the Food and Drug Administration in April. It is currently for investigational use only and is still pending FDA clearance. The new designation aims to help speed up development, assessment and review for premarket approval for medical devices, according to the FDA. It will also give Bairitone more opportunities to interact directly with FDA experts to make the approval process more efficient.

Bairitone was founded in 2022 in the Texas Medical Center's Biodesign program by Pitcher, CTO Onur Kilic and chief medical officer Britt Cross. It was a member of Activate Houston's inaugural cohort and has participated in numerous accelerators and incubators.

The company was a finalist for the Houston Innovation Awards in 2025 and 2024.

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