According to a new study, Houston is among the cities most vulnerable to job loss due to the recession caused by COVID-19. Getty Images

No matter whether the outlook leans more toward optimism or pessimism, Houston stands to lose a head-spinning number of jobs in the grips of a coronavirus-induced recession.

Economist Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston's Bauer College of Business, says a moderate recession could drain as many as 44,000 jobs from the regional economy by the end of 2020. That's out of nearly 3.2 million workers in the Houston metro area.

The job figures might look "much worse" through the second and third quarters of this year, Gilmer says. However, he adds, Houston's job losses should be followed by a "quick recovery" in 2021.

A study published March 27 by personal finance website SmartAsset predicts an even greater impact on employment in Houston.

SmartAsset forecasts 56,469 full-time and part-time jobs in just the city of Houston, or nearly 5 percent of the local workforce, could be lost in a coronavirus recession. In all, more than 282,000 jobs, or 24.6 percent of the city's workforce, could be in jeopardy, according to the study.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, says he thinks Smart Asset's job-loss estimate is "decent" but might be too low.

In light of the federal government's extension of social-distancing guidelines to April 30 and perhaps further extensions, Diamond believes Houston will suffer "substantial" job losses in the next two to four months. After the social-distancing rules are relaxed, Diamond expects an employment bounce-back later in the year.

"The recovery could be rapid if business supply chains and networks remain intact," Diamond says, "and if oil prices rebound by the end of the year."

For his part, Ed Hirs, an economics lecturer at the University of Houston, pessimistically envisions about 300,000 people in the Houston metro area will lose their jobs, at least in the short term, due to the coronavirus recession and the recent plunge in oil prices. (By comparison, the Economic Policy Institute projects the entire state of Texas will lose 442,717 private-sector jobs as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.)

"COVID-19 is going to be kind of a catch-all spring cleaning excuse for a lot of the oil and gas companies as they try to reduce their payroll," Hirs says.

For now, though, concerns about the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia must "take a back seat" to concerns about COVID-19, he says.

Aside from the energy industry, the escalating economic slump promises to hit several other prominent business sectors in Houston, including hospitality and manufacturing. Hirs thinks a recession could shrink Houston's 2020 economic output by 10 percent.

"This is across the board," he says, "and has the potential to be extraordinarily devastating."

ThinkWhy, a labor analysis firm, believes the impact of the COVID-outbreak on the Houston job market will be more evident in the blow it delivers to international trade than in any boost it provides to the health care sector. "But the pandemic will no doubt have an impact on both," the firm says.

It's already having a tremendous impact on small and midsize businesses in the Houston area. A March 23-28 survey by the Greater Houston Partnership found 34 percent of those businesses already had reduced their headcounts in response to the COVID-19 slowdown. And 55 percent said they're unsure whether they'll wind up carrying out permanent layoffs in the next six months.

"Houstonians like to embrace the notion that their metro was among the last to enter the Great Recession and was among the first to exit. That's not going to be the case this time," economist Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership, wrote in an unvarnished economic assessment published March 20. "All three pillars of Houston's economy — energy, global trade, and the U.S. economy — are tottering. The next 12 to 18 months will likely be very rough for Houston."
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Mastering control room management for smoother critical infrastructure operations

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Control room management (CRM) systems play an integral role in ensuring the safe and efficient remote operations of automated processes for the world's most critical infrastructures (CI). If anything goes wrong with these CIs, the risks are major: loss of life or catastrophic environmental disasters. For this reason, rigorous regulatory requirements are crucial.

CRM systems give operators the ability to automate and take control of CI processes, giving operators situational awareness and real-time visibility of remote assets. This minimizes the need for manual work and inspection, and scales a company's ability to safely manage many assets over a large geographical area from one control room.

Most CI have to handle hazardous material in some, if not all, of their operational areas. Though different by industry, regulations and oversight are extremely necessary.

ICS (Industrial Control Systems) and CRM tools are key components of real-time monitoring for advanced warning and emergency alarming. The combination of a “green, amber, red” alert on the screen of an operator's control console will prompt them to respond, and potentially lead to following emergency shut-down response procedures. Training and testing of the control systems and their related standards, procedures, and activities are all recorded in a system of record in compliance with regulatory requirements.

Current challenges
One of the biggest challenges is the ability to easily aggregate the data from the many different systems and integrate them with the operator's daily activity and responses to the many notifications they receive. This makes it difficult for handover, when a new control room operator comes in fresh to take over from the operator coming off duty. Ensuring a clean and clear handover that encompasses all the pertinent information, so that the new operator can take over the console with ease and clarity, is much more difficult than some would imagine.

Another issue is the sheer volume of data. When you have thousands of sensors streaming data, it is not unrealistic for a console to receive a few thousand data points per second. Performance and continuity are priorities on a CI control room console(s). So there is no room for error — meaning there is no room for big (quite literally) data.

All of this means that real-time data must be pushed off the operational and process control network and moved into an area where there are no controls, but big data can be stored to produce big-data analytic capabilities, enabling AI, machine learning, and other data science.

Controller/operator fatigue is also an issue. Manual tracking, documenting, and record-keeping increases fatigue, leading to more mistakes and omissions.

Opportunities for improvement
The Houston-based Tory Technologies, Inc.is a corporation specializing in advanced software applications, creating and integrating various innovative technologies, and providing solutions for control room management and electronic flow measurement data management.

Tory Technologies, Inc. can help with the auto population of forms, inclusion of historical alarms and responses, and easy handover of control with active/open issues highlighted, making for an easier transition from one operator to the next.

"CRM is essential for keeping operations safe and efficient in industries where mistakes can lead to serious problems," says Juan Torres, director of operations - MaCRoM at Tory Technologies, Inc. "While many control rooms have worked hard to meet compliance standards, challenges remain that can affect performance and safety. It's not enough to just meet the basic rules; we need to go further by using smarter tools and strategies that make CRM more than just compliant, but truly effective."

Shaun Six, president of UTSI International, notes that, "CRM solutions are scalable. A smart integration with relevant systems and related data will reduce 'white noise' and increase relevance of data being displayed at the right time, or recalled when most helpful."

The future state
Offering CRM as a service for non-regulated control rooms will give economies of scale to critical infrastructure operators, which will allow dispatching, troubleshooting, and network monitoring so operators can focus on more value-add activities.

It can also virtualize network monitoring, ensuring that field machines and edge computers are compliant with industry and company standards and are not exposed to external threats.

Even better: Much of this can be automated. Smart tools can look through each device and test that passwords are changed, configurations are secure, and firmware/software has been properly patched or safeguarded against known exploits.

The sheer volume of data from these exercises can be overwhelming to operators. But a trained professional can easily filter and curate this data, cutting through the noise and helping asset owners address high-risk/high-probability exploits and plan/manage them.

Ultimately, the goal is to make control rooms efficient, getting the right information to the right people at the right time, while also retaining and maintaining required documents and data, ensuring an operators “license to operator” is uninterrupted and easily accessible to external parties when requested or needed.

Integrating smart CRM systems, network monitoring tools, and testing/validating processes and procedures are all easily accessible with current technological capabilities and availability, letting operators focus on the task at hand with ease and peace of mind.

3 Houston innovators to know this week

who's who

Editor's note: Every week, I introduce you to a handful of Houston innovators to know recently making headlines with news of innovative technology, investment activity, and more. This week's batch includes three innovators across academia and health care innovation.

Reginald DesRoches, president of Rice University

Rice University President Reginald DesRoches joins the Houston Innovators Podcast to discuss balancing tradition with growth, innovation, and global impact in education. Photo courtesy Tommy LaVergne/Rice University

How does a historic university maintain its legacy while still making room for growth and increased opportunities? That's what Rice University President Reginald DesRoches considers with every decision he makes.

"It's this idea of preserving what's special about the university, while also knowing we need to adapt to a new time, a new Rice, a new time in higher ed, and a new time in society," DesRoches says on the Houston Innovators Podcast.

"There's a healthy tension between preserving what Rice is known for — the culture of care, the close-knit community — while knowing that we need to grow, have a global impact, and position Rice on a global scale. It's something that's constantly in my mind to make sure we do both." Continue reading.

Tatiana Fofanova, CEO of Koda Health

Koda Health has a new service for the 37 million Americans living with Chronic Kidney Disease. Photo courtesy of Koda Health

Chronic Kidney Disease is expensive and common. In fact, 37 million Americans live with the condition. The winner of this year’s Houston Innovation Award for best female-founded business, Koda Health, recognized the need for help among CKD sufferers and has answered the call.

Last week, Koda Health announced the addition of Kidney Action Planning to its suite of services for patients with serious illnesses.

"Kidney Action Planning is designed to fill a significant void in CKD management," Tatiana Fofanova, CEO of Koda Health, says in a statement. "Some studies indicate greater than 70 percent of patients start dialysis in the ER suboptimally, potentially navigating a life-or-death scenario. This is both frightening and largely avoidable with an intervention like Kidney Action Planning, which helps patients better understand CKD.” Continue reading.

Arun Swaminathan, CEO of Coya Therapeutics

Coya Therapeutics appoints a new CEO to lead its innovative Alzheimer's treatment development efforts. Photo via LinkedIn

Coya Therapeutics has named a new CEO. As of Nov. 1, Arun Swaminathan replaced Co-founder Howard Berman in the role. Berman has assumed the title of executive chairman, in which he will still remain active with the company.

Swaminathan started with Coya two years ago as chief business officer. This transition was planned, says the PhD-holding scientist and businessman.

Coya Therapeutics is a publicly traded biotechnology company that is working on two novel treatments for Alzheimer's disease. Coya's therapeutics, which are currently in trials, use regulatory T cells (T regs) to target both systemic- and neuroinflammation in patients. Continue reading.

10+ can't-miss Houston business and innovation events for December

WHERE TO BE

From networking meetups to pitch competitions, December is filled with opportunities for Houston innovators. Here's a roundup of events you won't want to miss out on so mark your calendars and register accordingly.

Note: This post might be updated to add more events.


December 3 — Cup of Joey: InnovationMap Awards Finalist Celebration

Meet the finalists of the Innovation Awards and network with like-minded, curious individuals over strong coffee.

This event is Tuesday, December 3, from 8:30 to 10:30 a.m. at 820 Gessner Rd. Click here to register.

December 3 — Antwerp-Houston Innovation Mission: Cleantech Pitching Event

Pitch your cleantech solution to members of both the Antwerp and Houston ecosystem. This cleantech pitch competition will feature networking with industry leaders, investors, and like-minded individuals passionate about sustainability. Witness groundbreaking ideas, support the future of cleantech, and take advantage of a unique opportunity to pitch to the Port Of Antwerp-Bruges, Bluechem, StartUp Flanders and more.

This event is Tuesday, December 3, from 2 to 5 p.m. at the Ion. Click here to register.

December 4-5 — Energy LIVE 2024

A full-spectrum energy exhibition, with 3000+ decision-maker attendees and 100 booths - the first meeting point for North America's clean energy ecosystem post-U.S. election, where attendees will seize emerging opportunities for sustainable profit. The Energy LIVE Expo will connect the three concurrent strategic conferences to laser focus on facilitating the next generation of net-zero partnerships.

This event begins Wednesday, December 4, at NRG Park. Click here to register.

December 5 — Holiday Block Party at the Ion

Join the Rice Alliance team for a holiday block party at the Ion featuring familiar faces and a healthy dose of Houston’s entrepreneurial energy. This is a celebration where you can catch up with old friends, meet new ones and soak in the holiday spirit. In the spirit of giving, Operation Love is hosting a toy drive at the event. Bring a toy to donate, and wrap it up at the gift-wrapping station.

This event is Thursday, December 5, from 4 to 7 pm at the Ion. Click here to register.

December 5 — SouthWest-Midwest National Pediatric Device Innovation Consortium

This annual event brings together members, colleagues, and guests of our FDA-supported consortium, dedicated to assisting pediatric device innovators throughout the entire lifecycle in delivering innovative solutions to pediatric patients. Angela Lorts, MD, MBA, of ACTION Network and Cincinnati Children’s Hospital will deliver a keynote address followed by a panel discussion on clinical trials/ evidence generation for pediatric devices and real-world evidence case studies.

This event is Thursday, December 5, from 4 to 7:30 pm at Texas A&M EnMed Tower. Click here to register.

December 6 — Inaugural Houston Methodist Neal Cancer Center GI Oncology Symposium

In this session, attendees will explore the latest advancements in surgical techniques for early-stage hepatobiliary cancer. The presentations will cover innovative operative approaches that enhance surgical outcomes and improve patient recovery. Expert surgeons will discuss their experiences with new technologies and methods, including minimally invasive procedures and enhanced imaging techniques.

This event is Friday, December 6, from 8:30 a.m. to 3:15 p.m at Houston Methodist Research Institute. Click here to register.

December 9 — Pumps & Pipes Annual Event 2024

The Pumps & Pipes Annual Event is an innovation gathering bringing together cross-industry leaders in Aerospace, Energy, and Medicine for engaging discussions and top tier networking opportunities. There will be three hour-long sessions ranging from space to medical technologies. The "Skybound Synergies: State of Texas Aerospace Investments & Their Ripple Effect" panel will spotlight Texas’ critical role in shaping the future of aerospace, with a focus on its cross-sector impact, from space exploration to innovation in energy & healthcare. Speakers include: Norman Garza, Jr., Executive Director of the Texas Space Commission (TSC); as well as two members of the TSC board of directors: Sarah “Sassie” Duggelby, CEO/Co-Founder of Venus Aerospace; & Kathryn Lueders, GM at Starbase, SpaceX.

In the "Innovating the Impossible: Real-World Applications of Robotics & Synthetic Bio" speakers will explore the groundbreaking intersection of synthetic biology and robotics as they reshape industries from aerospace to energy to healthcare. In "The Total Artificial Heart: Past, Present, & Future; a Uniquely Houston Story" Dr. Billy Cohn, will discuss the groundbreaking BiVACOR TAH, a device that fully replaces the function of the heart using a magnetically levitated rotary pump. This innovative approach is part of an FDA-approved first-in-human study, aiming to evaluate its use as a bridge-to-transplant for patients awaiting heart transplants.

This event is Monday, December 9, from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. at Texas Medical Center Helix Park. Click here to register.

December 9 — The $2 Million to $22 Million ARR Playbook

Join Next Stage Trajectory at The Cannon West Houston and learn from leaders who have navigated the path from promising startup to established industry player. This panel brings together three accomplished founders who have successfully scaled their companies from $2 million to over $20 million in annual recurring revenue within a short time period. Expert speakers will share insights, strategies, and hard-won lessons from their journeys.

This event is Monday, December 9, from 3:30 to 5 p.m. at the Cannon. Click here to register.

December 11 — Jingle Mingle and the Houston Tech & Energytech Extravaganza

Celebrate the season with Houston’s tech, energy transition, and life science startup communities. Enjoy music, holiday lights, an ugly sweater competition, and maybe even a visit from Startup Santa. Network with fellow builders in the Houston energy transition and foster meaningful connections and collaborations.

This event is Wednesday, December 11, from 5 to 9 pm at 401 Franklin St. Click here to register.

December 12 — Houston Region Economic Outlook

The Greater Houston Partnership’s Chief Economist Patrick Jankowski will present the organization’s Houston economic forecast for 2025, discussing the regional employment outlook for the year ahead and the overall regional and national economic outlook. This year’s event is particularly significant as it marks Jankowski’s final forecast presentation before his well-earned retirement after a 41-year career with the Partnership.

The Partnership’s Houston Region Economic Outlook event will also feature a panel discussion with experts discussing their insights on their respective industries, including commercial real estate and energy, moderated by Dan Bellow, President of JLL. Panelists include Stan Chapman, Executive Vice President & COO, Natural Gas Pipelines, TC Energy; Mary Beth Gracy, Houston Office Managing Director, Accenture.

This event is Thursday, December 12, from 11 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at the Royal Sonesta. Click here to register.

December 13 — 2024 Women In Agriculture Conference

Urban Harvest will host its third annual Women in Agriculture Conference, bringing together urban gardeners, farmers, entrepreneurs, and plant enthusiasts from across Texas to celebrate, educate, and uplift the work of women shaping the agricultural landscape. The conference features expert panels, networking opportunities, food, and prizes, and will offer a platform to share resources and knowledge for sustainable agriculture practices.

This event is Friday, December 13, from 8:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. at Houston Community College - West Houston Institute Campus. Click here to register.