Guest column

Houston data startup analyzes COVID-19 risks as companies return to work

Statistical Vision shares key data points it's watching as companies return to work amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Getty Images

In an effort to better help our clients, and frankly all of us, maneuver these uncertain times and to better understand what the upcoming months are likely to bring, we have applied our data science expertise to create a structural model of the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the national model is to determine specifically how mobility and weather impact the local transmission rates while controlling for population density, population immunity rate and the fact that people are taking more precautions.

When I discuss COVID19 with other Houstonians, I'm often asked "We're going back to work — there's traffic! Why haven't cases spiked?"

First, it is worth noting that cases and deaths have increased again in Harris County. But, the question is still valid. Greg Abbott started allowing things to open six weeks ago and we are only starting to see a rise now.

Fortunately, our model (being quantitative and multivariate) can explain why cases may not have 'spiked' the way that was expected. There are four main reasons why cases are only starting to tick up now:

  1. There has not been a 'spike' in people leaving their homes. While Greg Abbott did allow restaurants, movie theaters and malls to begin re-opening on April 30, there was not a sudden spike in people leaving their homes. Indeed, the "people staying home" index, according to Google Mobility Data, peaked on April 1 at 22 percent above normal and has gradually decreased ever since. In Harris County, the extent people are staying at home stands at 14 percent above normal as of May 29 (unfortunately, Google Mobility Data reports 7 to 10 days after the fact.) So, from the peak 'stay at home' measure, we were only a third the way back to normal last week.
  2. Temperatures have increased. Our model indicates that warmer temperatures decrease the transmission rate of COVID19. Our model does not posit a mechanism, but we can rule out both geographic explanations and behavioral explanations, which leaves us with the compelling reason to believe that temperatures matter.
  3. People's behaviors when they do go out have changed. These changes — everything from masks, to skipping hand shakes, to readily available hand sanitizer, to keeping your distance, to staying home when you're feeling sick — have an important and measurable impact on the spread.
  4. Kids are not back in school yet. While our model does not directly measure the impact of kids being in school, the estimate our model produces measuring the importance of staying at home (2.6) is higher than they should be (2, mathematically speaking). We suspect that's because we are missing an important cohort that started staying at home at the same time mobile phone users started staying at home - kids that don't have cell phones. So, while it may seem like we are most of the way back to normal, with regards to going out, being summer time in Houston, kids are not at school, which is likely keeping the rate of spread down.
All of that said, the gradual increase in people leaving their homes has had an impact. And now, cases and deaths are starting to increase. Our model reminds us that there are a variety of factors impacting the transmission rate. Right now, temperatures, people's behaviors and schools being out work in our favor. Come September, two of those three will turn the other way.
------
Michael Griebe is the co-founder and chief statistical officer at Houston-based Statistical Vision. To read more about the company's initiative, click here.

Trending News

Building Houston

 
 

Re:3D is one of two Houston companies to be recognized by the SBA's technology awards. Photo courtesy of re:3D

A couple of Houston startups have something to celebrate. The United States Small Business Administration announced the winners of its Tibbetts Award, which honors small businesses that are at the forefront of technology, and two Houston startups have made the list.

Re:3D, a sustainable 3D printer company, and Raptamer Discovery Group, a biotech company that's focused on therapeutic solutions, were Houston's two representatives in the Tibbetts Award, named after Roland Tibbetts, the founder of the SBIR Program.

"I am incredibly proud that Houston's technology ecosystem cultivates innovative businesses such as re:3D and Raptamer. It is with great honor and privilege that we recognize their accomplishments, and continue to support their efforts," says Tim Jeffcoat, district director of the SBA Houston District Office, in a press release.

Re:3D, which was founded in 2013 by NASA contractors Samantha Snabes and Matthew Fiedler to tackle to challenge of larger scale 3D printing, is no stranger to awards. The company's printer, the GigaBot 3D, recently was recognized as the Company of the Year for 2020 by the Consumer Technology Association. Re:3D also recently completed The Ion Smart and Resilient Cities Accelerator this year, which has really set the 20-person team with offices in Clear Lake and Puerto Rico up for new opportunities in sustainability.

"We're keen to start to explore strategic pilots and partnerships with groups thinking about close-loop economies and sustainable manufacturing," Snabes recently told InnovationMap on the Houston Innovators Podcast.

Raptamer's unique technology is making moves in the biotech industry. The company has created a process that makes high-quality DNA Molecules, called Raptamers™, that can target small molecules, proteins, and whole cells to be used as therapeutic, diagnostic, or research agents. Raptamer is in the portfolio of Houston-based Fannin Innovation Studio, which also won a Tibbetts Award that Fannin Innovation Studio in 2016.

"We are excited by the research and clinical utility of the Raptamer technology, and its broad application across therapeutics and diagnostics including biomarker discovery in several diseases, for which we currently have an SBIR grant," says Dr. Atul Varadhachary, managing partner at Fannin Innovation Studio.

This year, 38 companies were honored online with Tibbetts Awards. Since its inception in 1982, the awards have recognized over 170,000 honorees, according to the release, with over $50 billion in funding to small businesses through the 11 participating federal agencies.

Trending News