Guest column

Houston data startup analyzes COVID-19 risks as companies return to work

Statistical Vision shares key data points it's watching as companies return to work amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Getty Images

In an effort to better help our clients, and frankly all of us, maneuver these uncertain times and to better understand what the upcoming months are likely to bring, we have applied our data science expertise to create a structural model of the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the national model is to determine specifically how mobility and weather impact the local transmission rates while controlling for population density, population immunity rate and the fact that people are taking more precautions.

When I discuss COVID19 with other Houstonians, I'm often asked "We're going back to work — there's traffic! Why haven't cases spiked?"

First, it is worth noting that cases and deaths have increased again in Harris County. But, the question is still valid. Greg Abbott started allowing things to open six weeks ago and we are only starting to see a rise now.

Fortunately, our model (being quantitative and multivariate) can explain why cases may not have 'spiked' the way that was expected. There are four main reasons why cases are only starting to tick up now:

  1. There has not been a 'spike' in people leaving their homes. While Greg Abbott did allow restaurants, movie theaters and malls to begin re-opening on April 30, there was not a sudden spike in people leaving their homes. Indeed, the "people staying home" index, according to Google Mobility Data, peaked on April 1 at 22 percent above normal and has gradually decreased ever since. In Harris County, the extent people are staying at home stands at 14 percent above normal as of May 29 (unfortunately, Google Mobility Data reports 7 to 10 days after the fact.) So, from the peak 'stay at home' measure, we were only a third the way back to normal last week.
  2. Temperatures have increased. Our model indicates that warmer temperatures decrease the transmission rate of COVID19. Our model does not posit a mechanism, but we can rule out both geographic explanations and behavioral explanations, which leaves us with the compelling reason to believe that temperatures matter.
  3. People's behaviors when they do go out have changed. These changes — everything from masks, to skipping hand shakes, to readily available hand sanitizer, to keeping your distance, to staying home when you're feeling sick — have an important and measurable impact on the spread.
  4. Kids are not back in school yet. While our model does not directly measure the impact of kids being in school, the estimate our model produces measuring the importance of staying at home (2.6) is higher than they should be (2, mathematically speaking). We suspect that's because we are missing an important cohort that started staying at home at the same time mobile phone users started staying at home - kids that don't have cell phones. So, while it may seem like we are most of the way back to normal, with regards to going out, being summer time in Houston, kids are not at school, which is likely keeping the rate of spread down.
All of that said, the gradual increase in people leaving their homes has had an impact. And now, cases and deaths are starting to increase. Our model reminds us that there are a variety of factors impacting the transmission rate. Right now, temperatures, people's behaviors and schools being out work in our favor. Come September, two of those three will turn the other way.
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Michael Griebe is the co-founder and chief statistical officer at Houston-based Statistical Vision. To read more about the company's initiative, click here.

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Building Houston

 
 

This year, the Houston airport system won in a new category: "Best Art in the Airport". Photo courtesy of Houston Airports

We can now dub Houston the city of first-class airports and first-class service.

During the 2023 Skytrax World Airport Awards in Amsterdam, the Houston airport system earned several prestigious honors, including a second consecutive five-star rating.

Skytrax is the leading international air transport rating organization; they determine their ratings based on annual audits of every airport. This year, the Houston airport system won in a new category that was unveiled at the ceremony – “Best Art in the Airport” – which was determined by a panel of judges.

Mario Diaz, the director of aviation for Houston Airports, said in a press release that superior customer service is the “guiding light” for the city’s airport system.

“Excellent customer service is at our core; an expansive and eclectic arts program, just awarded World’s Best Art Program in 2023, provides a meaningful and memorable experience,” said Diaz.

The awards continued to stack up. William P. Hobby Airport maintained its five-star rating for the second year in a row. It is one of 18 total five-star airports in the world, but the one and only five-star Skytrax airport in North America.

Other accolades the Hobby Airport earned include:

  • Best Regional Airport in North America, for the second consecutive year
  • No. 2 Best Airport in the United States
  • No. 3 Best Airport in North America

George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) maintained its four-star classification for the sixth year in a row. It was also named the fourth best airport in North America, and third best in the United States.

Houston mayor Sylvester Turner said the Skytrax awards reaffirm the city airports’ “dedication to detail and commitment to customer service.”

“Houston truly is a global city where our guests are valued and celebrated,” he praised. “Another year of [five]-star and [four]-star ratings is proof that the investments we continue to make in our Houston Airports arts program, airport infrastructure and technology and team members are smart and successful investments that lead to a world-class and award-winning passenger experience.”

More information about the awards can be found on fly2houston.com.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

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