Guest column

Houston data startup analyzes COVID-19 risks as companies return to work

Statistical Vision shares key data points it's watching as companies return to work amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Getty Images

In an effort to better help our clients, and frankly all of us, maneuver these uncertain times and to better understand what the upcoming months are likely to bring, we have applied our data science expertise to create a structural model of the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the national model is to determine specifically how mobility and weather impact the local transmission rates while controlling for population density, population immunity rate and the fact that people are taking more precautions.

When I discuss COVID19 with other Houstonians, I'm often asked "We're going back to work — there's traffic! Why haven't cases spiked?"

First, it is worth noting that cases and deaths have increased again in Harris County. But, the question is still valid. Greg Abbott started allowing things to open six weeks ago and we are only starting to see a rise now.

Fortunately, our model (being quantitative and multivariate) can explain why cases may not have 'spiked' the way that was expected. There are four main reasons why cases are only starting to tick up now:

  1. There has not been a 'spike' in people leaving their homes. While Greg Abbott did allow restaurants, movie theaters and malls to begin re-opening on April 30, there was not a sudden spike in people leaving their homes. Indeed, the "people staying home" index, according to Google Mobility Data, peaked on April 1 at 22 percent above normal and has gradually decreased ever since. In Harris County, the extent people are staying at home stands at 14 percent above normal as of May 29 (unfortunately, Google Mobility Data reports 7 to 10 days after the fact.) So, from the peak 'stay at home' measure, we were only a third the way back to normal last week.
  2. Temperatures have increased. Our model indicates that warmer temperatures decrease the transmission rate of COVID19. Our model does not posit a mechanism, but we can rule out both geographic explanations and behavioral explanations, which leaves us with the compelling reason to believe that temperatures matter.
  3. People's behaviors when they do go out have changed. These changes — everything from masks, to skipping hand shakes, to readily available hand sanitizer, to keeping your distance, to staying home when you're feeling sick — have an important and measurable impact on the spread.
  4. Kids are not back in school yet. While our model does not directly measure the impact of kids being in school, the estimate our model produces measuring the importance of staying at home (2.6) is higher than they should be (2, mathematically speaking). We suspect that's because we are missing an important cohort that started staying at home at the same time mobile phone users started staying at home - kids that don't have cell phones. So, while it may seem like we are most of the way back to normal, with regards to going out, being summer time in Houston, kids are not at school, which is likely keeping the rate of spread down.
All of that said, the gradual increase in people leaving their homes has had an impact. And now, cases and deaths are starting to increase. Our model reminds us that there are a variety of factors impacting the transmission rate. Right now, temperatures, people's behaviors and schools being out work in our favor. Come September, two of those three will turn the other way.
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Michael Griebe is the co-founder and chief statistical officer at Houston-based Statistical Vision. To read more about the company's initiative, click here.

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Building Houston

 
 

Catch up on two big pieces of news landing at the Houston Spaceport. Image via fly2houston.com

The Space City is starting 2022 off strong with news launching out of the Houston Spaceport — a TK-acre space in TK Houston.

The two big headlines include a unicorn company releasing the latest details of its earthbound project and fresh funds from the state to support the space ecosystem in Texas.

Governor Abbott doles out $10M in spaceport grants

Texas has launched fresh funding into two spaceport projects. Image via fly2houston.com

Last week, Gov. Greg Abbott announced $10 million in funding to two Texas spaceports as a part of the state's Spaceport Trust Fund. The Houston Spaceport Development Corp. received $5 million and the Cameron County Spaceport Development Corp. received $5 million.

The fund is administered by the Governor's Office of Economic Development and Tourism and was created to support the development of spaceport infrastructure, create quality jobs, and attract continuing investments that will strengthen the economic future of the state, according to a news release.

"For decades, Texas has been a trailblazer in space technology and we are proud to help cultivate more innovation and development in this growing industry in Cameron and Harris County," says Abbott in the release. "This investment in the Cameron County and Houston Spaceport Development Corporations will create even more economic opportunities for Texans across the state and continue our legacy as a leader in space technology."

Axiom Space hires Dallas-based architecture and engineering firm

Axiom Space has made progress on developing its 14-acre headquarters. Image via axiomspace.com

Houston-based unicorn Axiom Space has announced that it awarded Dallas-based Jacobs the architecture and engineering phase one design contract. The firm will be working on the 100,000-square-foot facility planned for the 400-acre Houston Spaceport at Ellington Airport.

Axiom Space's plans are ro build the first commercial space station that will provide a central hub for research, to support microgravity experiments, manufacturing, and commerce in low Earth orbit missions, according to a news release.

"This is an exciting and historic moment for Axiom and the greater Houston area," says Axiom CTO Matt Ondler in the release. "For the first time, spacecraft will be built and outfitted right here in Houston, Texas. This facility will provide us with the infrastructure necessary to scale up operations and bring more aerospace jobs to the area. With this new facility, we are not only building next generation spacecraft, but also solidifying Houston as the U.S. commercial industry's gateway to space."

Axiom Space, which raised $130M in venture capital last year, is building out its 14-acre headquarters to accommodate the creation of more than 1,000 high-paying jobs, from engineers to scientists, mathematicians, and machinists.

"Houston is a city built on innovation and is becoming a next-generation tech hub in the United States," says Ron Williams, senior vice president at Jacobs. "Privately funded infrastructure will drive U.S. leadership in space. Jacobs is committed to providing integrated solutions to accelerate the future of commercial space operations."

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